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Air News
29-March-2022
The Russian Air Force is losing its best planes in the Ukraine.
The Sukhoi Su-34 was supposed to change the Russian air force. This twin-engine, two-seat supersonic fighter-bomber - a highly evolved variant of the Su-27 air superiority fighter - promised to usher in a new era of high-tech, precision bombing.
Instead, Su-34s have flown into Ukraine carrying the same old bombs as always. The lack of precision-guided munitions - not to mention Russian doctrine that views the planes as essentially flying artillery - forces these $50 million warplanes to fly low through the thickest Ukrainian air defenses to have any chance of dropping their bombs with any degree of accuracy.
As a result, Su-34s are falling from the sky in numbers that must be surprising to air force commanders. Its newer planes are suffering the same fate as its older ones.
The Russian air forces ordered its first batch of 32 Su-34s in 2008. A second batch of 92 followed in 2012. As of 2021, the Russians possessed some 122 Su-34s in various regiments. Even taking into account the losses, by 2030 the air forces could operate close to 200 Su-34s.
The plan, at all times, has been for the Su-34 to replace the Su-24 of the 1970s, of which about 70 examples remain in service. Nowhere was this more evident than in Syria. The Kremlin deployed Su-34s to Syria starting in November 2015, shortly after a Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24 that allegedly strayed into Turkish airspace.
The Su-34 is impressive. The aircraft borrows the fuselage of the Su-27, but adds a two-person cockpit with side-by-side seats. The Su-34 can engage targets up to 600 miles away while carrying 12 tons of bombs and missiles, including air-to-air missiles.
The 22-ton aircraft is armed with a 30-millimeter cannon and also features multi-mode radar and a Khibiny electronic countermeasures suite. In theory, the Su-34 supports a number of precision missiles and bombs, making the type roughly analogous to the Boeing F-15E, the US Air Force's fighter-bomber.
But there is a fundamental difference. While the Americans buy thousands of satellite, laser, and infrared guided missiles and bombs every year, train frequently with them, and use them in combat almost to the exclusion of unguided weapons, the Russians all but stopped buying guided munitions years ago because of to its high cost and, after 2014, to the effect of foreign sanctions on Russian bomb and missile manufacturers.
So while the Su-34 can carry guided munitions, it - and all other tactical warplanes in Russian service - almost never do. “The bulk of the 300 [Russian air force] fixed-wing fighter jets massed around Ukraine only have bombs and unguided rockets for ground-attack sorties,” Justin Bronk said in a recent analysis for the Royal United Services Institute of London.
This is evident not only in the videos the Kremlin has released showing the fighter-bombers in combat in Ukraine, but also in the model's loss rate. Independent analysts have confirmed the destruction of four Su-34s in Ukraine. The Ukrainians have reportedly captured at least one Sukhoi pilot, Alexander Krasnoyartsev, alive.
If photos and videos from the front show four Su-34 losses, it can be safely assumed that more losses have occurred, but they are not well documented. Only one of Russia's fixed-wing aircraft has suffered more in the current war, the Su-25 subsonic air support aircraft, which flies even lower and slower than the Su-34.
Ukrainian authorities claimed on March 18 that troops firing a shoulder-launched Stinger missile destroyed a Su-34. A week later, kyiv officials attributed the shooting down of another Su-34 to "mobile" air defense units. It is unclear whether they were referring to man-portable missiles or air defense vehicles.
In any case, it is clear that the Su-34s are falling prey to short-range missiles that are likely to be guided by signal or infrared. These missiles, including Soviet-designed Strelas and American Stingers, typically have a range of a few kilometers out and a few kilometers up.
A warplane using missiles or precision bombs, perhaps directed by drones or observers on the ground, could drop the munitions from tens of miles away and up to three or four miles high, putting them beyond the range of defenses. more numerous short-range aerials.
But the Su-34s flying over Ukraine seem to strictly carry unguided munitions, although the latest Su-34M variant does come with a specific interface for the new UKR-RT sensor module that should, in theory, help the type deliver guided bombs. through bad weather and cloud cover.
The Sukhois drop the same type of dumb bombs that the Su-24 carried in its heyday. And that means crews must actually see the ground to achieve any degree of accuracy. They have to get below the clouds, where the Ukrainian missileers can locate them quickly.
It is not just the limitations of technology that put the Su-34 at risk. Even the most sophisticated warplane is a slave to the doctrine, rules, and expectations that guide the conduct of an army in war.
The Russian doctrine, unlike, for example, the American one, does not give the air forces freedom to carry out their own campaign. In Russian doctrine, aircraft are extensions of the ground force. They are airborne artillery: uncompromising vehicles for the delivery of massive firepower. The Russians are not in favor of precision munitions because they are not in favor of precision.
As long as that is the case, Sukhoi crews will continue to face extreme danger over Ukraine. The Su-34 is a new warplane whose crews are at the mercy of old weapons…and even older doctrine.
David Ax
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