WoodyXyooj
New member
Hey there buds, going back to trimming and Thai runners who work fast with high quality finishes. I know allot of them whom are always readily available.
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Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better
- Thread starter SeniorBuzz
- Start date
xj13(the real one not j1 or jack h)
GG4
sour bubba
headband
LA-CON x og
strawberry banana
are my top strains right now
All between 2.0-2.6 units per SE light in a 4x4.
I'm confident I can get that up to 2.8-3.2 by going to up that to 5x5 with DE
nastynate420
Member
How much would you guys charge for a ten pack of slightly seedy good looking indoor? There's probably 8 seeds in it per 8th.
To get an idea where prices of weed are going it might be helpful to look at publicly traded canadian companies who have to report quarterly financial data. Weed is federally legal in canada so there's nothing stopping big business from coming in, and some have. Here's a look at a couple of hyped up public canadian producers:
Aphria cannabis
https://aphria.com/assets/reports/Q1_2017_Aphria_InvestorDeck_WEB-2.pdf
Aurora cannabis
https://auroramj.com/investors/
They each run a couple of acres of greenhouse production and are expanding. There are other similar companies and they're all about the same. The thing that jumps out to me is their production costs are sky high. They claim ~$800 lb all in costs but I've gone thru the official quarterly filings and once you factor in employee and management salaries they're up around $1500/lb. This leads me to believe these are mainly green rush companies that won't last.
I'm looking to see what happens when real agriculture companies come in. These are companies that already have infrastructure, technology, & a history of making money farming products with tiny profit margins, such as tomatoes.
One such company is Village farms. They are the largest greenhouse grower of tomatoes in North America with 260 acres of climate controlled hydroponic greenhouses. They plan to switch a portion of their canadian production to cannabis next year.
http://villagefarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/VF-IR-presentation-Nov-2016-Final.pdf
I estimate their costs for producing cannabis will be around ~$100/lb.
One negative I see for producers is the market for weed, although high in dollar figures, isn't that high from a production standpoint as far as acres needed to meet demand. Consider this: There's a population of 315 million in the U.S. and about 15% regularly use weed. According to this paper average use is about 100 grams per year:
http://business.time.com/2013/05/20/how-much-will-a-legal-marijuana-habit-cost-you/
If you double the number of regular users, and double the amounts used, so instead of 15% of the pop. using 100 grams you have 30% of the pop using 200 grams per year, that comes out to 41 million pounds of potential demand in the U.S.
An acre controlled climate greenhouse should be able to produce ~9500 lbs per year. That comes out to 4315 acres of U.S. greenhouse needed to meet demand. That's a very small amount. Consider:
tobacco: 630 thousand U.S. acres in production
corn: 90 million U.S. acres in production
The market for weed as far as production is relatively tiny, but because the demand in $$ amounts is there and because the production needed is relatively small I don't think big fields of sun grown fields will be the focus. The focus will be on companies that run controlled climate greenhouses on a decent amount of acreage. This will keep prices somewhat elevated compared to other commodities because those operations aren't cheap & the people running them want to make money (as evidenced by current canadian public producers).
Aphria cannabis
https://aphria.com/assets/reports/Q1_2017_Aphria_InvestorDeck_WEB-2.pdf
Aurora cannabis
https://auroramj.com/investors/
They each run a couple of acres of greenhouse production and are expanding. There are other similar companies and they're all about the same. The thing that jumps out to me is their production costs are sky high. They claim ~$800 lb all in costs but I've gone thru the official quarterly filings and once you factor in employee and management salaries they're up around $1500/lb. This leads me to believe these are mainly green rush companies that won't last.
I'm looking to see what happens when real agriculture companies come in. These are companies that already have infrastructure, technology, & a history of making money farming products with tiny profit margins, such as tomatoes.
One such company is Village farms. They are the largest greenhouse grower of tomatoes in North America with 260 acres of climate controlled hydroponic greenhouses. They plan to switch a portion of their canadian production to cannabis next year.
http://villagefarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/VF-IR-presentation-Nov-2016-Final.pdf
I estimate their costs for producing cannabis will be around ~$100/lb.
One negative I see for producers is the market for weed, although high in dollar figures, isn't that high from a production standpoint as far as acres needed to meet demand. Consider this: There's a population of 315 million in the U.S. and about 15% regularly use weed. According to this paper average use is about 100 grams per year:
http://business.time.com/2013/05/20/how-much-will-a-legal-marijuana-habit-cost-you/
If you double the number of regular users, and double the amounts used, so instead of 15% of the pop. using 100 grams you have 30% of the pop using 200 grams per year, that comes out to 41 million pounds of potential demand in the U.S.
An acre controlled climate greenhouse should be able to produce ~9500 lbs per year. That comes out to 4315 acres of U.S. greenhouse needed to meet demand. That's a very small amount. Consider:
tobacco: 630 thousand U.S. acres in production
corn: 90 million U.S. acres in production
The market for weed as far as production is relatively tiny, but because the demand in $$ amounts is there and because the production needed is relatively small I don't think big fields of sun grown fields will be the focus. The focus will be on companies that run controlled climate greenhouses on a decent amount of acreage. This will keep prices somewhat elevated compared to other commodities because those operations aren't cheap & the people running them want to make money (as evidenced by current canadian public producers).
Nice post Kelly, good angle on it.
Canna farming is really labor intensive. I would guess even for a farming company who swaps crops to canna, their expenses are going to sky rocket from labor. As well, they possible don't have all the infrastructure needed to farm canna.
Greenhouses are a great start, but then you need drying rooms, processing rooms, curing rooms. Labor facilities. Cant just pluck canna off the vine and toss it in a freight truck off to market.
A lot of non canna farmers are growing GMO varieties, that produce easily. Eventually we may have GMO canna, but until then there will be more labor involved in the IPM and detecting and preventing mold and mildew. Imagine 200 acres of greenhouse with mildew, budrot, broad mites. Then passing lab inspection for mold, mildew, pesticides, etc..
While back, maybe 10 years ago. B.E. Smith did an article for high times. He claimed he would have no problem producing and selling at 600 a pound. Not fully trimmed, but bucked down iirc.
I think a big part of the political push to over regulate and over permit the industry is to prevent the old canna farmers like B.E., from producing so cheaply. All the investors and start ups with high overhead and inexperience are going to need high prices just to break even. Besides the politicians have already studied the market, and they know that end consumers are willing to pay 50-60 dollars for an eighth. They make more tax revenue, and people smoke less with those prices. Last thing they want is cheap canna and stoned tax payers. I think the end prices on high end stuff will stay that high, mids a little cheaper and some low end stuff as well.
Canna is so diverse as well. Look at the land race varieties. Some cultivars just grow better in different regions. A little scarier than American farmers, third world countries which have favorable climates and vast wealth's of cheap labor.
Interesting times regardless, only time will tell.
Mr^^
Canna farming is really labor intensive. I would guess even for a farming company who swaps crops to canna, their expenses are going to sky rocket from labor. As well, they possible don't have all the infrastructure needed to farm canna.
Greenhouses are a great start, but then you need drying rooms, processing rooms, curing rooms. Labor facilities. Cant just pluck canna off the vine and toss it in a freight truck off to market.
A lot of non canna farmers are growing GMO varieties, that produce easily. Eventually we may have GMO canna, but until then there will be more labor involved in the IPM and detecting and preventing mold and mildew. Imagine 200 acres of greenhouse with mildew, budrot, broad mites. Then passing lab inspection for mold, mildew, pesticides, etc..
While back, maybe 10 years ago. B.E. Smith did an article for high times. He claimed he would have no problem producing and selling at 600 a pound. Not fully trimmed, but bucked down iirc.
I think a big part of the political push to over regulate and over permit the industry is to prevent the old canna farmers like B.E., from producing so cheaply. All the investors and start ups with high overhead and inexperience are going to need high prices just to break even. Besides the politicians have already studied the market, and they know that end consumers are willing to pay 50-60 dollars for an eighth. They make more tax revenue, and people smoke less with those prices. Last thing they want is cheap canna and stoned tax payers. I think the end prices on high end stuff will stay that high, mids a little cheaper and some low end stuff as well.
Canna is so diverse as well. Look at the land race varieties. Some cultivars just grow better in different regions. A little scarier than American farmers, third world countries which have favorable climates and vast wealth's of cheap labor.
Interesting times regardless, only time will tell.
Mr^^
^ MedResearcher, my perspective as well.
i'm currently working on a landrace sativa based seed line for outdoor grown commercial strains. Baked Beanz is doing some great work in this arena.
I've seen outdoor grown product with fantastic commercial appeal that puffs up real nice.
the 315 lec cmh tech. looks to be a major game changer allowing anyone to grow prime product including the hard to grow sativa landraces indoors in small amounts.
the actual market for bud product can easily be produced as kelly1376 posted. ppl will grow their own or will buy based on price except for the top tier stuff. it's be very interesting to see how events transpire.
i'm currently working on a landrace sativa based seed line for outdoor grown commercial strains. Baked Beanz is doing some great work in this arena.
I've seen outdoor grown product with fantastic commercial appeal that puffs up real nice.
the 315 lec cmh tech. looks to be a major game changer allowing anyone to grow prime product including the hard to grow sativa landraces indoors in small amounts.
the actual market for bud product can easily be produced as kelly1376 posted. ppl will grow their own or will buy based on price except for the top tier stuff. it's be very interesting to see how events transpire.
I doubt you'll see any commercial scale of sativas as their flower g period is just too long. It took my a long time to find a sour diesel cut that has the original smell, good yields and is done in 9 weeks. Outdoor guys are already being replaced by light dep greenhouse guys, and small indoor guys are getting crushed by bigger growers who have cheaper power and lower production cost per pound. Faster flowering strains will continue to dominate, as longer flowering times do not equal higher price per pound. If someone would pay me 6k a pound I'd make you all the haze or landrace sats you want!
I haven't looked closely at the upcoming california regulations. Do they require lab testing on every batch? In Oregon every batch has to be tested, maximum of 10 lbs per batch. So if you harvested 1000 lbs of outdoor youd have to pay for 100 tests. The labs are making a killing now from what I gather they're charging ~$500 per full panel test. So theres another $50/lb worth of expenses.
Here are some new regulations
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...-name-address-and-141-grow-pot-home/95542906/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...-name-address-and-141-grow-pot-home/95542906/
Not sure what happened with it. There was a interesting article about an island off NZ or Australia that was going to be allowed to commercially grow and ship to Canada. If I recall, they were going to grow long flowering sativas since Canada doesn't have the climate for it.
Wouldn't shock me if your right Lazy. Although I hope someone, somewhere preserves and produces sativas. Commercially I like fast strains to. To much money wasted indoors, and not enough late season sun and temperature outdoors in Nor Cal to grow long flowering strains.
The old rumour was that Mexican Sativa use to be great. A niche in the market. Until someone brought fast finishing indicas to hybridize it and speed up production.
As a teenager in the 90's we use to go to Big Sur, and get some really great sativa leaning strains. The general consensus was that some of the old Mexican sativa genetics had landed and been isolated in Big Sur. Some really great stuff. I haven't been there for a long time now, but I wouldn't be shocked if its all Green Crack, Mr Nice, AOTA, etc.. now
Mr^^
Wouldn't shock me if your right Lazy. Although I hope someone, somewhere preserves and produces sativas. Commercially I like fast strains to. To much money wasted indoors, and not enough late season sun and temperature outdoors in Nor Cal to grow long flowering strains.
The old rumour was that Mexican Sativa use to be great. A niche in the market. Until someone brought fast finishing indicas to hybridize it and speed up production.
As a teenager in the 90's we use to go to Big Sur, and get some really great sativa leaning strains. The general consensus was that some of the old Mexican sativa genetics had landed and been isolated in Big Sur. Some really great stuff. I haven't been there for a long time now, but I wouldn't be shocked if its all Green Crack, Mr Nice, AOTA, etc.. now
Mr^^
they got $5 grams in WA and the prices are still falling.
check out the $100-$200 range of rec zips in WA.
The $120 ones look good but I'm down with rough trimmed zips of OG for $100
the packaging is cool too, canned and bottled and fancy bagged herb.
weed is 1 min 30 into video.
[youtubeif]CVeM5LxIZyY[/youtubeif]
Before Shasta County banned the dispensaries, the local newspaper and radio station was full of adds for 99 cent grams. Same time, look at the top shelf in S.F. or the better parts of L.A. Can check out SPARC, RCP, Kinds People, Harborside, they have cheaper weed but they also have top shelf for 60 an eighth plus tax. Market for everything, one mans trash is another mans treasure.
Who knows what will happen, I imagine it might be like wine. You can get a box for 5 bucks or you can get a bottle for 100. The tax and permits in CA are going to be really high though. Salinas where Harborside is setting up their greenhouse production, they are charging 25 dollars a square foot annually. So a 10k sqft permit is 250k. Then you have state permit, cultivation tax, retail tax. The feds wont let them write off buying weed as an expense either. So they eat tons of tax federally.
The wholesale prices have been steadily rising around here. Pounds had plummeted to 800-1k a few years ago. Closer we get to regulation the more they have gone back up. 1200-1500 is what I have seen recently. Heard legit farms talking about demanding 2k once the new rules kick in.
Just my opinion though, wouldn't be the first time I was completely wrong. CA is a bit of a different animal to. Huge population, people are use to overpaying for everything. As well we have hordes of people migrating in diminishing the supply. Around here you almost see more out of state license plates than you do CA plates. The demand this year seems a lot higher. Along with more no grow counties and a rainy harvest, I am guessing it will dry out pretty good come summer.
WA sounds like a nice place to take a stoner vacation.
Mr^^
Who knows what will happen, I imagine it might be like wine. You can get a box for 5 bucks or you can get a bottle for 100. The tax and permits in CA are going to be really high though. Salinas where Harborside is setting up their greenhouse production, they are charging 25 dollars a square foot annually. So a 10k sqft permit is 250k. Then you have state permit, cultivation tax, retail tax. The feds wont let them write off buying weed as an expense either. So they eat tons of tax federally.
The wholesale prices have been steadily rising around here. Pounds had plummeted to 800-1k a few years ago. Closer we get to regulation the more they have gone back up. 1200-1500 is what I have seen recently. Heard legit farms talking about demanding 2k once the new rules kick in.
Just my opinion though, wouldn't be the first time I was completely wrong. CA is a bit of a different animal to. Huge population, people are use to overpaying for everything. As well we have hordes of people migrating in diminishing the supply. Around here you almost see more out of state license plates than you do CA plates. The demand this year seems a lot higher. Along with more no grow counties and a rainy harvest, I am guessing it will dry out pretty good come summer.
WA sounds like a nice place to take a stoner vacation.
Mr^^
today's sale pricing in Sacto. $12 gram shatter. race to the bottom?
_tessarecting
ஓ
Blueberry haze...lol
I think retail pricing will stay relatively higher than wholesale because that's where most of the taxes are plus tons of overhead. Another key with retail isn't so much pricing as it is marketing. You still see people buying the expensive top shelf stuff due to the way the product is promoted in the store as "rare, exclusive and elite". At the retail level raising prices is a good way to distinguish product as it tends to attach a premium quality to the product for the avg buyer - if something is expensive it must be good. If something is in short supply and expensive it must be really really good. There will always be dispensaries with very high prices on all their products that will make out very well due to the way their product is marketed and packaged. Hell, look at Starbucks for a comparison. $3 for a cup of coffee. They don't pay anymore for their coffee beans than anyone else though.
For a producer it's more difficult to get a premium because you're dealing in bulk volumes with educated wholesale buyers and it's more difficult to separate your product.
Commodity prices are largely about investment. With a high priced commodity there's tons of money ready to invest to capitalize on that opportunity. So tons of investment dollars go into production which causes production to get too high and prices begin to drop. Margins get a lot tighter and investment in production starts to dry up, which lowers or stabilizes production and holds prices at a floor.
Prices and margins need to fall low enough to where the opportunity no longer looks as appealing for outside investment. Enough current producers are gonna have to leave the market and enough green rush producers are gonna have to get burned so that the opportunity to invest good sums of money & grow weed legally and get rich will no longer be appealing. I'm already starting to see some early signs of this in Oregon. I think there will still be enough profit margin for the small producer who really wants to do this to make a decent honest living for those that work hard and get serious about cutting costs, managing money, and getting by with lower margins.
For a producer it's more difficult to get a premium because you're dealing in bulk volumes with educated wholesale buyers and it's more difficult to separate your product.
Commodity prices are largely about investment. With a high priced commodity there's tons of money ready to invest to capitalize on that opportunity. So tons of investment dollars go into production which causes production to get too high and prices begin to drop. Margins get a lot tighter and investment in production starts to dry up, which lowers or stabilizes production and holds prices at a floor.
Prices and margins need to fall low enough to where the opportunity no longer looks as appealing for outside investment. Enough current producers are gonna have to leave the market and enough green rush producers are gonna have to get burned so that the opportunity to invest good sums of money & grow weed legally and get rich will no longer be appealing. I'm already starting to see some early signs of this in Oregon. I think there will still be enough profit margin for the small producer who really wants to do this to make a decent honest living for those that work hard and get serious about cutting costs, managing money, and getting by with lower margins.
Technically that's the correct name.
frostqueen
Active member
I thought the correct name was 'santa cruz blueberry haze'.
