Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

Today in the Modoc Record newspaper it was announced that the indians up here are about to open two grow facilities. One is about 4-5 acres completely indoors and belongs to one tribe.

The other one belongs to a different tribe and that one is in greenhouses that cover 10 acres. That one alone is almost 425,000 sq. ft. in size.

If what was said about grams/sq. ft. in Washington is correct...the one 10 acre facility alone could produce ~40,000 lbs per cycle.

This does not include the other "warehouse" grow by the other tribe in Modoc or the other indian op in socal or any others we do not yet know about because the indians are keeping this pretty close to the vest for the most part.

They seem to be ready to do what the Pomo's in Mendo were going to do. Wholesale it to all the dispos in Cali and maybe ship it to all the other dispos in all the other med legal states at rock-bottom prices. Maybe...$500/lb...? Who can compete at that price? Who will want to compete at those prices?

This is almost certainly going to be the end of vending to dispos in very short order, leaving only the black market.

Considering the outdoor grow bans almost statewide by almost every single county, this is going to reduce the supply to the black market.

Obviously this is going to cause a spike in prices which is good for those growers who have connections in the black market but for those who do not and vend to dispos...they are about to die on the vine.

And if the current legislation in the cali legislature passes and is signed into law, no one will be able to do anything except on the black market.

And as state-wide legalization continues to progress across the country, the black market is going to slowly disappear leaving those remaining to be relegated to being the outlaw moonshiners of weed and the market for moonshine is not that big when you can go buy Blatz beer @ $1.79 a 6-pack. At that point it would seem that the only hope for even the black market would be in "dry" counties. Just like the moonshiners.

Someone give me a good arguement that this is not the end of weed and our livelihoods as we have known it for decades.

aside or all the silly focus on the native american grows this dude is spot on. the sky is only falling if youre not looking up to see it coming.
this isnt doom and gloom its reality. hell it could be the best thing that ever happened to you financially to see the writing on the wall.

it doesnt matter if its native americans or big colorado companies. weed is easy as fuck to grow in an optimum environment with proper nutrition. they will get there eventually this thing is in its infancy. youll be outdone by these grows and theyll have access to being legally ordered by stores to stock shelves with. they wont want to call every little tiny grow with varying quality and tons of different growers to deal with. they want to click the og box the various mixed mids box and the outdoor box on the odering form and have it delivered packaged priced and ready to sell with no employee labor to pay out for answering phones meetings buying and sorting through weed and packaging. the truck dude drops it of just like the cigarette vendors do. easy peasy.
people are the same way. they dont want to find cool growers always hoping hteir faves are in stock and calling around craigslist or shopping around, they want to go into 7 eleven and buy high grade og kush made by somebody like sierra nevada or ninkasi or maybe just a 6 doller six pack of sam adams or perhaps two buck chuck. not 100 dollar champaign for breakfast or even daily smoke. if they want something stronger than high grade greenhouse done well they will buy concentrates be fore they shell out for indoor that is 100 times more expensive to grow than row cropped greenhouses of og.

 

[Bongstar420]

Lol I guess you have never heard of a filter. A high quality greenhouse has all the environmental controls an indoor grow has, without the big power bill.

Since when was this a tomato forum? Comparing cannabis to tomatoes is beyond retarded, if you need that explained to you then you should think of a different profession.



A greenhouse can't be run year round? Since when? Those were not "guesstimates" those were the STATS that the state collected. That's what you get with regulation. A quick google search would have informed you that, but I'm sure coming up with that insult was difficult enough for you.

Pot growers in the established greenhouse regions will out compete greenhouses not. If you have to invest in things like heat and lights, you might as well just go in. You get much better lock down on conditions and can get a stable chronic output. Good luck

Get your brand a good spin. A lot of that spin is connected to your lab results. I am a small fry in a big pond with toothy fish. So far 75% of my new vendor contacts accepted contracts. They tell me they are turning other vendors away daily. Truth be told, I struggled for a long time.

 

[Bongstar420]

Duplicate

 

[Bongstar420]

I don't see what the indians got. 10% of farmers can pump THC all day and put an end to any price conflict, but then of course thats just THC.

So what is the bottom price greenhouse vs indoor then for your average lb?

As far as I see, my "expensive" indoors are 10-30% more than outs/greenhouse...And it comes with pumped up numbers smoking smooth due to a perfect finish every time. I don't want to say what I could do. I want to hear what other people say the "could" do with respect to rock bottom pricing and the integrity of their product and themselves (I don't see being cheap as reputable per se).

 

[MountZionCollec]

My 'future' legal price expectation for my family operated collective is $400-600 a pound in the 2nd year of legalization in Cali.

The product.

-4200' elevation on south facing mountain top with full day sun.
-organic
-outdoor/greenhouse hybrid (fall flowers covered with hoop house from rain
-hand trimmed
-Climate controlled hang dry for 7-12 days
-trimmed at ~70%rh then placed in 1/2 gallon mason jars and burped until RH is 62-65% then vacuum sealed with boveda packs ensuring the buds never leave the "cure" state arriving in May in the same freshness as post cure. And since the product is still in te cure state when I bag it it consumes the little remaining oxygen during the curing process causing little oxidation.

Problem is going to be SO many people will "try" to make it in the first couple years that prices will be driven down to 2 or 3 times costs until state to state markets open up freeing the PRODUCTION state to legally ship it to Midwest, east, south and southwest.

 

[Yes4Prop215]

I've seen a bunch of indian res herb out of humboldt, its crap. straight mersh quality, I'm sure some will produce decent stuff, but if they are gonna pump 40k lbs a cycle you think its gonna be hand trimmed and top notch? haha no way. machine processed and most will probably be developed into oils, edibles etc.

i tried selling some of it for $300 a unit cheaper than my hand trimmed sun grown and nobody was interested. even novice smokers could tell it was mediocre. honestly even at current "drought" market conditions its still a hard sell at 1k a unit and the only people buying it will be the exporters to non med markets. no way most california residents will smoke it...where do the indians intend on selling all this stuff? i can see their pitch now..."hey drive hours into the mountains to smoke super cheap subpar weed!" and gamble while your at it.

does anyone KNOW FOR SURE that the pomo operations run by UCANN is solely for the colorado market? if so than its all the guys with 500 lighters in denver who should be worried. people already know CO buds reputation as over dried, premature chemmy indoors. I've seen some of the operations of "cup winners" and other high times profiles and they look like a fucking joke. I've probably only seen a handful of CO operations that were clean and up to what i would consider industry standard in CA.

mountzion, how much are you paying your hand trimmers at 400 a unit?

 

[huligun]

What appears funny to me is that some of you think you have a god given right to the market. You have voted to keep it illegal, but a lot of people are not happy paying upwards of 2k a pound for something grown in dirt. You guys had a good run, and consider yourselves lucky you are not in prison by voting to keep it illegal. You cannot stop a movement that started before a good many of you were even born. Many of you just jumped on the band wagon recently enough to be heavily invested in the future the way it was and not the way it really is. Don't get high on your own supply and maybe you can find a way to stay alive. Native Americans had cigarettes, liquor, fireworks and gaming. You think there is a reason they cannot take over weed as well? Only thing stopping them is the federal government, the same enemy you all have. Maybe the Natives will give you a good job as a consultant if you can sell yourself well enough. Good luck. Evolve or parish like the rest of us in the real world.

 

[MountZionCollec]

Yesprop

I should clarify by "expectations" I mean what I use for planning purposes based on "worst case but still very possible outcomes"

But if the price does get that Low I will Pay $100-125 a pound for trim. Currently I pay $150 per pound and sell to dispensaries for between $800-$1400 depending on quality and #s. Dropping the price anymore than $125 and I don't think It would effectively motivate people to do a good job. Even with a trimming cost of $125 per pound I could keep my total cost per pound ~200, but only because me and my wife do everything, including labor.

 

[MountZionCollec]

Yes prop

On the POMO nation I think their is a 0% chance of them making any deals to send it to Colorado. They stopped reporting news on the Pomo stuff back in February when they said it would start being built. I really doubt it will be up and running anytime soon. and when it does it'll only be allowed to sell on POMO lands.

The natives will need to make treaties with the states they operate in on ganja sales.

 

[z-ro]

A high quality greenhouse has all the environmental controls an indoor grow has, without the big power bill.



A greenhouse can't be run year round? Since when? Those were not "guesstimates" those were the STATS that the state collected.

See, that's where you're mistaken, a greenhouse takes tons of additional energy to run, especially year round. And the product differs greatly from run to run unlike indoor. Again, that's something you would know if you ever grew anything at all. I mostly grow outdoors btw.

And no, those aren't 'STATS' they are averages from what 500 growers claimed they were getting, before i502 was even implemented, when they were trying to figure out how much square footage they were going to permit. Again, something you would know if you read the whole report not just spouting off wild claims.

 

[Backyard Farmer]

See, that's where you're mistaken, a greenhouse takes tons of additional energy to run, especially year round. And the product differs greatly from run to run unlike indoor. Again, that's something you would know if you ever grew anything at all. I mostly grow outdoors btw.

And no, those aren't 'STATS' they are averages from what 500 growers claimed they were getting, before i502 was even implemented, when they were trying to figure out how much square footage they were going to permit. Again, something you would know if you read the whole report not just spouting off wild claims.

Don't talk to people on this forum with logic and reason ... It gets u banned

 

[ApolloAK]

See, that's where you're mistaken, a greenhouse takes tons of additional energy to run, especially year round. And the product differs greatly from run to run unlike indoor. Again, that's something you would know if you ever grew anything at all. I mostly grow outdoors btw.

And no, those aren't 'STATS' they are averages from what 500 growers claimed they were getting, before i502 was even implemented, when they were trying to figure out how much square footage they were going to permit. Again, something you would know if you read the whole report not just spouting off wild claims.

k

 

[z-ro]

No it's occupied with your wifes box...

 

[Shcrews]

Evolve or parish like the rest of us in the real world.

idk who you are speaking for, but i'm glad i don't live in your "real world" of garbage $1000 tribal packs

and yes for anyone paying attention the market dictates price. evolve or perish etc. just a bunch of fuckin minions battling for scraps of what the masters throw from the table

 

[BasementBreeder]

I think most of you are far underestimating how low the price will drop as legalization spreads.

For comparison, as an average joe, I can buy 20 grams of caffeine for less than $10. Caffeine is extracted from natural sources that contain only a few % of caffeine. We all know cannabis can contain over 20%...

If someone can buy a high quality extract for $1/g, how much do you think they'd pay for a gram of bud?

 

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

yes exactly. weed is cheap as fuck to grow if you are a real farmer. you could even do quality

 

[Yes4Prop215]

Wholesale prices in Colorado (from shop to shop only not black market) are approx 15-1600 a lb for orders of 10-20units. Haven't seen the actual quality but assuming it's pretty mersh indoors.

 

[huligun]

You guys know even better than me, that the average Joe smoker is not a cannoisseur.

Once legal (Like where I live) the average Joe is just starting to smoke again after decades of hiatus because it is legal. I know a lot of average Joe's and they are absolutely clueless about quality. The cannoisseur market is a rather low percentage.

Myself, I still grow or go to dispensaries and I demand the best. I want to get a buzz off of one hit as I do not really enjoy the smoking part of it. I make sure that is all I have so I travel and maintain important connections. I bought a couple grams of real Durban Poison from a rec shop here, and that stuff was crazy sativa high good. It was ugly and cost me $17 a gram out the door. That is after a huge amount of tax has been applied. I generally buy by the ounce, but once in awhile I shop around so that I have a better idea of what is what out there. I would imagine that 7 bucks of that 17 was tax btw.

However... I can get weed in dispensaries for 6 bucks a gram and it is not terrible. A good many would rather enjoy what you can get for 6 bucks, and I do know people that buy that at larger amounts for a discount and sell for 10 bucks (kids).

So for a clear picture of the market, one has to look at the market. What sells? and when I say that, what makes the most net income for the deal/dispensary/rec store?? One cannot go by his friends or people on a weed site. Average Joe in Seattle doesn't go to any weed site, he goes to the rec store.

Plenty of data out there already for Colorado and Washington. All you have to do is google and ask the correct questions. Are you guys about the money or about the elite status of having the best weed? You have to ask yourself that.

Me... I like the best and pay for it. I don't deal or anything like that because it would jeopardize my good name and career if I got busted. Average Joe don't want to get busted for more than an ounce.

 

[MountZionCollec]

I think people who think that cannabis will end up the same price as tea has not processed more then 5 pounds at one time. it is EXTREMELY difficult to properly process cannabis flowers and it is most certainly not comparable to any produce so a random comparison to something that has little in common with the Actual farming, processing, and storage to cannabis doesn't really offer any "real" insight.

As schrews noted, price is dependent on the market.....which the relationship of supply to demand...another thing which most people forget is the market "parameters" or "rules of the game" are set by the government.

The government will never allow FULL scale agricultural production, except for hemp and for CBD oil, of drug cannabis because they dont want the price to get too low. If it gets too low: taxes are reduced and you have a drastic increase in consumption.

I agree growing is not that expensive, though the cheaper you go the better and more on hands you have to be, but the processing Is extremely difficult to do, especially on a mass scale, so as long as you continue to produce the highest quality to price ratio their will be plenty of room small farmers who do it cheap (sustainable )and high quality.

 

[FlowerFarmer]

You guys know even better than me, that the average Joe smoker is not a cannoisseur.

Once legal (Like where I live) the average Joe is just starting to smoke again after decades of hiatus because it is legal. I know a lot of average Joe's and they are absolutely clueless about quality. The cannoisseur market is a rather low percentage.

How long will this be the case however? Eventually palates will become more refined, tolerance will grow, and more and more will seek out higher quality, just as we do ourselves.

I don't think it takes long for a cannabis consumer to recognize the appeal & benefits of higher quality.... if they become aware of it.

Business is booming right now because we've now got retail shops where anyone can walk through the door and buy cannabis - coming from a time where there were zero and punishment was the norm for even possessing. The majority of them likely don't know what real quality is and the masses are happy to just be legal and able to purchase. As times goes on hopefully more will develop a knack for identifying good cannabis and demand for quality flowers will go up.

The best thing for this industry right now is education of the consumers.


I'd like to think that these massive agricultural state licensed cartels that many states are looking implement will have to sit on their tonnage of sub-par crap because the masses simply don't want it. Local growers need to demonstrate to these consumers (their family,friends,neighbors) what real quality is supposed to look/smell/smoke like so that we can more quickly get past this phase of mega-produced beasters, or at the very least separate it in the market place from those who do intend to provide true top shelf.



This of course is coming from a local grower/connoisseur so naturally my opinion/wishes are bias.