Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

Why some get enjoyment out of predicting the future & telling people they're fucked is beyond me.

no enjoyment just thought it was relevant to the topic at hand. its peppered with a lil humor sure but thats just because im a smart ass.

Large scale climate controlled light dep green houses + the evolution of the concentrate markets definitely does have me questioning what the future of all this may look like.

couldnt agree more. indoor will go away in favor of modern climate controlled greenhouses that can produce year round at a fraction of the price at close enough quality to indoor.
because the price point will become very stark at that point it will just be hard to justify paying 20 times the price to produce and purchase wholesale indoor.
it will be a situation where if top notch green house aint good enough you dont reach for high end indoor to get 5-10 % more thc and bag appeal at many times the price it will be the ........ectract market that fills that gap/
indoor will become a relic other than hobbyists and breeders. maybe. electricity cost cou;ld easily spike and further dissuede the use of indoor growing.
we shall see but these are my 5 and 10 year predictions respectively

 

[Elmer Bud]

One thing about pot heads is the hyper projection of what is to come

Where in the cycle do you think we are? how do you think legality will play into these stages on local, country and global markets?

Don't have to answer for the question is rhetorical.

FWIW organic tops from living soil are commanding far mroe than other local indoors of like strains

Most pot out there is still substandard imho (better than 90s beasters, sometimes)


Development

In the development stage, the product goes through testing and a prototype is developed. This is after considerable market research to identify consumer needs and wants. If the product is deemed commercially viable, then the product may be put into mass production and launched.

It is important to remember at this stage expenditure for the company is high. No income is being received as there are zero sales. This is the first stage of the product cycle lifespan.
Introduction

Introduction is the stage in which a new product is first made available in the market. In the introduction stage, customers are few, competition is less, sales are low, risk is high and profits are low or nil. There are heavy distribution and promotion expenses. This stage is full of risks and uncertainties. prices are also high because(1) costs are high due to low level of output.(2) technological problems in production may not have been solved, and(3) high profit margins are required to support the heavy promotion expenditure. the product at the introduction stage requires high activity in promotion.
Growth

If the product is popular with consumers, then sales will start to rise. It may be a rapid growth or a slower one. Rapid growths that fall away just as quick are called 'Fads'. That process is known as Growth.

Advertising is often still heavy at this point.
Maturity

Once the product is well established and consumers are satisfied, then the product is widely accepted and growth slows down. Before long, however, a successful product in this phase will come under pressure from competitors. The producer will have to start spending again in order to defend the product's market position or introduce extension strategies.

It may only be in the Maturity stage where companies will receive a return on their original expenditure and investment due to potentially high start up and development costs.

Saturation: At the very end of the Maturity stage, and where there is no further growth possible, saturation occurs. This is also referred to as Saturation Point. This is when little or no advertising is needed and sales are levelling off.this is the period of stability. during this period, the sales of the product reaches the peak. there is a steady demand for the product and no possibility for growth. However, at this stage other competitors also become popular and capture the market.
Decline

Sooner or later sales fall due to changes in consumer tastes or new choices available from competitor's products.

Again, extension strategies may be open to the company to keep the product alive. The product can be declined if there is no proper growth and the later stage which has been discussed above.

G`day Weird

Your model doesn`t fit ...

The industry is already established and operating .Though be it a black / grey market .
I think this situation calls for a different template than that cookie cutter you are suggesting .

Because market research into the habit of cannabis consumers is limited .


Thanks for sharin

EB .

 

[Allendawg]

We are losing the battle against pest & disease it's actually already happening! Food shortages already happening!! Getting worse & worse every year! It's basic common sense! If you wanna set up an entire MJ & Hemp industry based on failed policies it will give you the same results!!! Just one example Orange crop, the global orange crop is on the brink we have no cure the only thing we can do is slow it down, oranges as you know them are history! Global wheat is on its way out fungus is decimating the global crop, on top of that we've had too much rain & cold weather which screwed the usable wheat! Who cares what the total wheat harvest is it's the total useable wheat that matters! It's a new world! Anything grown commercially is very risky including MJ! Academics are touting Hemp as a pest & disease immune plant! Lol

 

[Bongstar420]

Prop 215 if your cookies cross is as good as the real cookies no reason you can't get 3k in the bay! I get offered 27 for my cookies cross all the time & I walk all the time!

Really? I just tossed seedlings of em out. I also didn't obtain multiple established cuts of this variety (very likely legit cuts). I don't do fads. If you got something empirical to show me (like some crazy amount of trace cannabinoid or terpene), I will give it some consideration. So far Cannabis names have proven to be absolutely useless due to very high amounts of heterogeneity (wide chemical variation).

 

[Allendawg]

To get back on topic this affects our current prices! You guys know you are spraying the shit out of your plants( most) this is why you are doing it! If you think you can spray spray problem solved your smoking crack!
God forbid we find ourselves in the wheat crop pickle cold weather = rain! warm weather = fungus! Basically prices can only go in one direction UP!

 

[Allendawg]

To get back on topic this affects our current prices! You guys know you are spraying the shit out of your plants( most) this is why you are doing it! If you think you can spray spray problem solved your smoking crack!
God forbid we find ourselves in the wheat crop pickle cold weather = rain! warm weather = fungus! Basically prices can only go in one direction UP!

 

[Bongstar420]

$2300/lb my first sale in Oregon without question. A mostly unknown variety too, and I have got 0 standing in the Cannabis community or in general for the most part (I got a some standing with a couple non-cannabis professionals, but it doesn't count for much).

I talk to folks getting offered $1600 for ins here, but these people are not pushing limited addition top shelf. I just realized that the medical market is mostly not medical and that is why I had the outcome I did (my top performer is 24.3% THC (27.5% as THCA) with 2.23% beta-myrcene and a light OG underflavor) which is super good for getting high. I seriously doubt it would have sold out like it did if there was a CB1 antagonist blocking only the high and doubling the medical effect in the flower.

This guy said it best! Although, it doesn't only hold true in the bay. You gotta have that hustle in you and go right to retail and branding as well with custom packaging. And you have to be one of the top 5% class of growers to have the quality product to compete in the new market and hold your customer base from looking elsewhere. Variety will be a key factor as well as quality. No matter what market you are in, it's always possible to get low 3's if not high 3's with the right strategy. If your market is bad for retail, there's always another market 3 hours away. That's indoor of course. The green rush is still here if you have enough light. Also gotta start cutting expenses and do as much work as you can without many employees unless you got 50+ lights. The guys with 8 lights or less will be in the fight of their life trying to stay alive. Most will drown and the cream of the crop will come to the top and continue to ride the wave.

 

[Shcrews]

$2300/lb my first sale in Oregon without question. A mostly unknown variety too, and I have got 0 standing in the Cannabis community or in general for the most part (I got a some standing with a couple non-cannabis professionals, but it doesn't count for much).

I talk to folks getting offered $1600 for ins here, but these people are not pushing limited addition top shelf. I just realized that the medical market is mostly not medical and that is why I had the outcome I did (my top performer is 24.3% THC (27.5% as THCA) with 2.23% beta-myrcene and a light OG underflavor) which is super good for getting high. I seriously doubt it would have sold out like it did if there was a CB1 antagonist blocking only the high and doubling the medical effect in the flower.

most brokers/club owners care more about look and smell than anything else including test results. No name, no analysis, doesn't matter if it's that #loudpack.

 

[Yes4Prop215]

Cocaine = 10/g, check.

I wish someone would tell me how much the hookers are in Costa Rica...

I'm on a limited budget of $47, and wondering if I can do a line of blow off a hooker's ass and still have enough money left for some jerk chicken or ribs afterwards.

the better looking hookers go for 100 a night from what I've been told. you can find better deals for like 40-50 if you know them or they aren't the top notch ones lol. but for 100 bucks they will usually stay a few hours and you get can a few nuts off. grams of coke are 10-15 bucks and its the best of the best. good weed however is pretty rare down there so its very popular if you have some around that isn't jungle be asters. also concentrates like wax sell for 50-100 a gram int he right circles. so hash oil is selling for US coke prices lol.


zro- all i grew this round was cooks and glue so thats all i had to sell. of course people usually asking for OG but thats for next round. and hard to believe no one is asking for cookies, growers dont want to grow it but brokers still love the shit out of it. all my animal cookies sold first before glue i could sell cookies any day of the week. and honestly GG is a good cash cropper but i personally dont like it that much for smoking and doubt if its really gonna stay around like OG and sour do. so my next round has zero GG4 its gonna be 50% gsc and 50% OG kush.

 

[Backyard Farmer]

Og Kush and sour d rules the market in California...chemdog does pretty damn great too.

If you want the top price tier for your product and a quick turn around OG KUSH grown well is a guarantee

 

[Daub Marley]

Large scale climate controlled light dep green houses + the evolution of the concentrate markets definitely does have me questioning what the future of all this may look like. Ultimately once it is federally DE-scheduled I do believe we'll see it treated much like a regular commodity with standard agricultural practices. How long that'll take..It's anybody's guess.

In my opinion.. we've got much bigger issues on the horizon with our economies, mass unemployment and currency/debt situations.

I believe that the prices will begin to diverge. Cannabis is not like any other commodity. The diversity of most commodities have been whittled down by the free market until there is like less than 7 varieties. It's going to take at least 30 years before that happens with cannabis and likely will never happen.
The concentrate market is interesting. Nothing could more quickly ruin most growers and put them out of business. It has already hit bottom and is now recovering imo. The notion that you can basically remove all your terpenes and still have a desirable product has proven unfounded. Serious cannabis users demand quality and that's why the live resin/fresh frozen is priced so high. That's important because without the terpene profile of the plant all growers would compete for the lowest prices and from what I understand it takes surprisingly little acreage to supply the whole state. It would be a bloodbath with only a handful of winners. Knowing that the consumer cares about taste and smell makes me think that the market will split all directions like wine instead of everyone just racing to the bottom.

I thought the lady who makes the organic medibles was particularly annoying, like when she screamed like a little girl over the "purple kush". Lol I got the impression these people haven't been in the industry for that long.

I would strangle her in no time.

 

[JointOperation]

its going to be steady with quality.. with more people wanting to know what they are smoking times are a changing.. good weed will fetch the price it deserves anything else will be like mexican swag prices.

 

[oneofus]

honestly GG is a good cash cropper but i...doubt if its really gonna stay around like OG and sour do. so my next round has zero GG4 its gonna be 50% gsc and 50% OG kush.

hey prop, mad for you man, but, does this mean you're kicking gg4 to the curb...?

 

[Yes4Prop215]

for the next few runs yes....i like GG but its still easier to sell OG. i hate having any kind of issues or hiccups with moving product. with GG i always get offhand remarks comparing it to OG, complaining about its lack of the classic OG/sour terpene profile. which i also agree wit, honestly i haven't even been smoking too much of it. its taste is good but not my preferred, everyone is different some like stiff IPAs and other like rolling rock. its only plus is its veg vigour and great structure which il keep it around for OD season. but for indoor I'm going to pretty much just do what the market wants...OG/GSC and if i can find a good sour D cut i wold do that too. i got a few tangle cuts that I'm gonna play with as well but i also feel like tangle is better left for outdoors and mass concentrate production.

 

[Little Hill]

When does the GG finish outdoors?

 

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

When does the GG finish outdoors?

in oregon its approximately when the mold decreases the yield more than finishing on time increases it.
late october would be nice after halloween would be a miracle but not bloody likely around here.

 

[oneofus]

prop,

Thanks for the answer and your points are well taken - especially about market demand.

Where do you think Fire OG fits in the market in terms of demand vs. other types of OG?

 

[Backyard Farmer]

The only thing that matters when it comes to OG is 1. LEMON PINESOL FUEL nose 2. the quality of the pieces in the bag...Call it whatever OG U want as long as it has good pieces and it smells LOUD of lemon pinesol fuel it's going to go for top dollar first!!!

Sour D is also HUGE too..IF you can get the right cut and tame that beast...

Prop don't fuck around with tangie ,,, its just for oil / breeding...

 

[Shcrews]

I'm going to pretty much just do what the market wants...OG/GSC and if i can find a good sour D cut i wold do that too. i got a few tangle cuts that I'm gonna play with as well but i also feel like tangle is better left for outdoors and mass concentrate production.

At least you gave the gg4 a try. The Cali market is all about OG, its been this way since i can remember. Most people wont grow anything else indoors these days. I get bored smoking only OG, love me some gg4 and cookies but they don't get any space in my garden unfortunately because i grow weed to sell not to smoke.

bodhi's GG4 x Wookie sounds like a great cross for outdoor season. i'm keeping an eye out for those. GG4's potency and Wookie's flavor... goddamn!

 

[Yes4Prop215]

Prop don't fuck around with tangie ,,, its just for oil / breeding...

yea I'm already knowing, I've never been a big tangle fan to be honest not my preferred taste. but two of my main workers are in love with it for hash so I'm gonna plug a few lights and then give them the finished product for their labor cut.