NFL 2019-2020

[G.O. Joe]

What’s a good ratio for season long handicapping, like 65-70% win rate?

Like I said about the VI people, 60-64% is good and 56% is acceptable if there's no weeks below 53%. Last year I seem to remember at some site or book 5 picks a week contest someone hitting a crazy number. I was 8-6 this week but was 7-2 in games I liked at least 1 point better than the spread. In college I was 13-5 up to the late games, which went 1-7. It is not difficult at all to set lines as good or better than Vegas, every week. This allows you to see the value in the week's lines. Philly is being faded because of the injury report and bad home field. Buffalo and GB are a little low, but should close higher. Denver is getting big home love, KC would probably close -17 at home.

Clemson had a close game against NC that kept people honest last year. It's not clear how much appetite for high numbers there will be.

When I mentioned DB they changed their site the next day and it's useless now. Right after posting a link to VI scoreboard and talking about the recap, they and ESPN no longer post it and VI doesn't do scores. So they're all garbage now and I'm not mentioning any part of any site ever again.

Peanut is just below fruit, coconut, and liver on the list of things that don't belong in chocolate.

 

[Bababooey]

[FONT=&quot]Yeah, the best VI people were like 80% after 4 weeks, but I knew that would come down over time. I figure it’s like baseball, if you have success 10% more of the time than the average player, you’re elite. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Ah ok, I see your previous post you had some games more favored than others, and of those 9 you only lost on GB and Houston? Not bad not bad. As a bears fan I would have known better than to bet on the packers, they always seem to screw me. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]How do you set your own betting lines, is it just points scored minus points given up, winning percentage or strength of schedule? [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]VI doesn’t do scores anymore? Im still seeing previous week’s scores and lines and results..[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]You like your chocolate pure, then? A man of culture I see. Im more like forrest gump, I like to bite into pieces of chocolate and see what I get…[/FONT]

 

[pop_rocks]

what a great monday of games!
the chiefs v bills wasnt the game i thought it was but still fin to watch
there was something off this week and the bills stepped in that same pile of mess the rams tracked all over the field
their defense was helpless against the chiefs who pretty much just kept clyde edwards helaire rolling the whole game
/potential roty
dalton dident really fit in with the dallas offense last night and zeke let the ball slip,out a couple times on their way to a big loss against the cardinals
k.murray looked pretty good against a decent defense and they seem to be clicking on all cylinders
/decent run, pass and defense
the nfc.w is looking tough and i hope the rams can keep step
we play the bears next monday and i cant wait! this is a must win for the rams if they dont want to lose any of the momentum they have built up in the first quarter of the season
the bears will be the toughest defense they have seen up to this point and goff needs to get his head on right if we are going to get that W
tamales keep well and you are right about being able to freeze them and they still taste good
ive had a bunch of different ones but the ones i like the most are the savory flavors, things like beef or pork with cheese
there are also ones filled with cheese and peppers or other ingredients
plus some people will spoon a little mole or other sauce into them
they would come out super good i bet and if you can get your masa right it wouldent be that hard to make them with left over meat from the grill
the oaxacans make this mole with dark chocolate and its pretty awesome
they also have some with fruit in them go.joe, but ive never had a peanut tamale

 

[G.O. Joe]

You like your chocolate pure, then?

You mean like Hershey bars which were always nasty - no. It's true the best thing for chocolate is more - Baskin Robbins darkest ice cream was awesome back in the day. I'm a peanut purist. It belongs in sandwiches or whole in the shell. Next thing you know the kids will be putting it on pizza. Never had mole, even though I once resided not far from the border.

Rice is better than peanuts, yet sounds stranger. Who thought of rice candy. If anyone wanted Halloween candy from me they'd get 100 Grand. There would be cherry Jolly Ranchers too if they sold those, but that's never been their business model.

You can learn how to figure lines by total immersion in numbers. You find out how to predict outcomes as accurately as possible and it all falls into place. If your lines coincidentally match books and where they differ you're right, you know. It's not clear how books come up with their number before any adjustments, but the way that different books end up with about the same number says that there are several ways to figure it, or some method is widely known, or can be rediscovered with enough effort.

The numbers game goes further in finding that likelihood of covering. Clemson was the only game last week recommended by my betting system, which hasn't been adjusted for the NFL yet. Their number is too high this week - not that they shouldn't cover it, but there is a fair chance they don't, and I'm not sure pros say hit me on -46. Maybe Ron Rivera would (because he wants to win, he claims).

 

[Bababooey]

[FONT=&quot]Yeah, bills were only down 3 at half and lost by 9 overall but it just didn’t feel like they had a chance in this game. Ur right pop, bill’s D is loads worse than last year, Ed Oliver their 1st rd Def Tackle was getting pushed around, they couldn’t stop the run (death by a thousand paper cuts). CEH was great but he still didn’t score a TD, the rushing td was given to Darrel Williams. Dude still hasn’t scored since week 1, seems like every time KC gets at the goal line they’ll give it to anyone but him to score (hill and hardman scored short td’s in recent games off jet sweeps), and now with bell being ready to contribute who knows how much opportunity he’ll get. I don’t know, I think it’s between Herbert and Burrow for Off ROTY, but Tua is supposedly going to start (fins are on bye this week) so maybe if he balls out he can play catch up. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Murray and the cards crushed the cowboys, I guess after this game Jerruh will realize Dak was more important than he thought? But u make a good point, Dalton and especially zeke need to play better going forward. Murray only completed like 40% of his passes, but he had 2 pass tds and 1 rush and finally Kenyan drake had a great game (he was a high draft pick in fantasy and severely disappointed till yesterday).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Yeah, bears at rams Monday night should be a decent game, probably will be a defensive battle, bears offense is still all kinds of bad but their D should give the rams trouble. We’ll see mack and Donald play, they both signed big contracts in 2018 but only Donald is really outplaying his contract, mack might be a top 10 def lineman still but just barely while Donald is the best damn player in the league, maybe. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Cheese definitely will go well inside a tamale, but don’t u have to be careful with overfilling a tamale, so you can wrap it completely and make sure stuff doesn’t come squirting out while it cooks? I’d love some big ol tamales with tons of filling but they probably take longer to cook too.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Hey GJ, nestle crunch (milk chocolate with crisped rice) and 1000 grand (same but also caramel) are some of my favorite candies, and who doesn’t like rice crispies treats? I guess crisped rice is a very neutral flavor that goes well with sweets (chocolate, marshmallow etc).
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Hershey bars are definitely low grade milk chocolate, any quality milk chocolate or European style chocolate puts it to shame, but it has its place too, in smores, or melting it and using it to dip strawberries or as a topping on other sweets.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As far as peanut butter, some places will have a burger with a scoop of peanut butter on top. Supposedly it works better than you think, ive been making burgers lately maybe ill try it as a lark. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Yeah, most of the methods on how to set lines begin with you ranking the teams first, and then using other stats (points scored vs points give up, etc) to crunch numbers with your personal rankings influencing the end result. I’d have a hard time ranking teams, there are clearly bad ones and good ones but drawing a line between the good ones (is GB better than TN, etc) would be hard for me. Maybe ranking teams in tiers would be better. Like a superbowl tier at the top, which would be the chiefs, and maybe ravens and pitt and hawks? And then going down from there…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]We got the giants at philly, giants barely beat WFT at home (should have gone into OT but riverboat ron went for 2 and the win instead of the xp). Iggles are favored by 4.5, Im pretty confident they’ll beat that, although miles sanders wont play with a bum knee, but they got some capable backups and travis Fulghum gives wentz a halfway decent WR (finally). Iggles hung tough with the ravens and pitt last two weeks, giants aren’t nearly in their class but it is a divisional game…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Dang, Clemson is favored by 45.5 hosting Syracuse. Yeah, even for a bottom feeder acc team that’s a huge spread. [/FONT]

 

[Sunshineinabag]

Hey the giants got a win! That d lineman williams I think is his name ....fuken wow

 

[pop_rocks]

ive had some pretty crazy tamales baba' but you are right that its all about a ratio of filling to masa
even the best ones werent bursting at the seams but had a decent amount of stuff inside
peanuts are one of my favorite foods brother! i enjoy it in all forms
im not a big fan of sweets but peanut butter and chocolate is a nice treat when you are high
roasted peanuts are a daily but have you ever had those peanuttles?! those things are awesome crunchy stoner food
/ sets down hash pipe and wipes drool from chin
i saw they were putting tua in and i thought now its on! even if he only starts part of the season we will get to see what he can do and it makes this years rookie class seem that much better
as far as roty i still like ceh (thanks for coming up with that abbreviation btw) plus that kid in pittsburg, claypool
if burrows or herbert were playing on winning teams i would have a different take
/ ceh did have a td run but it was called back on a penalty

 

[Sunshineinabag]

I think I need some real deal peanut brittle before my teeth aren't capable of handling those brittle bites

 

[Bababooey]

Yeah Sunshine, giants have 2 of the better D-lineman in the league with leonard williams and dexter lawrence. They still need more talent on that defense, and everywhere really, but those two are very solid.

Peanut brittle is always good but just fyi make sure you dont get stale brittle if you dont have good teeth. Years ago i made the mistake of buying some peanut brittle on sale from sams club and dang if it wasnt hard as heck, i think it was near the expiration date. Still tasted good but you had to suck on it like a hard candy instead of being able to crunch it and it mostly just got chewy and stuck to my teeth, ugh, think it damaged my fillings eating that stuff.



That american kitchen episode on tamales they were real careful not to overfill the husk, literally just covering a quarter of the husk with masa. And then it took them an hour to steam on the stovetop! I guess if youre going to make a lot you'd want a big double layer steamer so you can pack like 50 in at once, if it's going to take an hour each time.

I havent had the peanuttles but ive had the fisher butter toffee coated peanuts and ur right Pop, theyre so good. Nutty and sweet and buttery, i had to force myself to stop eating them after a while else that was going to be my dinner, lol. Yknow, could u make butter toffee peanuts with cannabutter? Im sure you could and if they turned out good you'd have to be very careful not to overindulge lol.

I'd go with either burrow or herbert for OROTY, Pop, just cause they've pretty much started all year, burrow is good when he's not going against a good D and herbert is very precocious. But if either of them slow down and CEH or claypool continue putting up big numbers then yeah, maybe go with the non-QB. But it's a QB league so you have to go with a halfway decent one unless youre blown away by an RB/WR.
I didnt see the TD taken away from CEH but yeah, he's just had terrible TD luck this season and i dont see it getting any better with bell in the mix, who's as good as a receiver there is at RB.



We have giants at eagles tomorrow, two 1win teams for thurs night football. I think last year there were a lot of uninspiring TNF games too, but it's football so it's not all bad i guess. Wentz is still struggling but didnt throw a pick against the ravens last week, and daniel jones had his first passing td since week 1 last week. Not sure what to make of these QBs, their whole team situation is dragging them down but it's clear neither is good enough to lift their team beyond their talent limits.

 

[pop_rocks]

you are spot on about how qbs are usually favorite to win roty honors and burrow and herbert are both solid picks
they are both showing a lot of maturity and have the physical skills you look for in a franchise qb
this looks like a great rookie class so far
if pitt is able to make a serious run into the post season and claypool keeps playing like he is i tihnk he is going to get some attention for roty
/this could segue into a conversation about if pitt is for real; i think they are one of the top-5
peanut brittle is bomb stuff and you are right that you want to have it fresh
its not hard to amke and you probably have the ingredients around the house
we are thinking about making some butter this weekend, maybe we should make peanut brittle candy instead of the caramels
im also looking for some high proof alcohol to make a tincture from
that opens the door to all kinds of neat treats we can bake
hope you guys are wrapping up your week nicely and all set for another great weekend of games!

 

[Bababooey]

[FONT=&quot]Claypool followed up his 4td game with another rushing score last week Pop, so if he’s able to keep scoring (and the rush td’s are really adding to his total, I think 2 of his 4 td game were rush td’s) he might have a good chance for ROTY. Assuming Herbert doesn’t finish with 30 pass tds (would be a rookie record) and burrow keeps getting owned by the ravens and steelers, claypool could definitely win it. Btw, I have him in one of my leagues, im hoping he keeps it going too, but if diontae johnson actually stays healthy that might eat into his work. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Steelers are definitely playing well, they have a top defense and even when they give up points the O is potent enough to outscore opponents. They got 2 games against the ravens so we’ll see how they stack up.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]You’ve made peanut brittle before? Do you need peanut butter as well or just peanuts? [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]One time I made a tincture with glycerine, which is like this sweet food grade alcohol, and I used it for a vape and to ingest straight but you could also use it in recipes. But maybe you can get some 100 proof rum and make a tincture with that and make some bomb ass rum based sweets. Let us know what you end up doing im sure ill be drooling…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Where's Gojoe with this weekend's picks? Im in deep to my bookie and trying to buy myself out by going double or nothing... YOLO!!!
[/FONT]

 

[G.O. Joe]

If you see Pittsburgh on TV it seems obvious that they're executing on another level. Had to settle for radio last night.

Not sure what to make of these QBs, their whole team situation is dragging them down but it's clear neither is good enough to lift their team beyond their talent limits.

Philly is a good team being dragged down by Wentz and Pederson. Whatever those two did in the second half didn't make up for the first.

What's up with the Northwestern total at 53.5? I'd take that on speculation (who exactly is taking over?) but would hit Alabama, Miami, IA St, SC, and Tulane first.

These are the teams I have 2 pts or better than the spread on paper, in increasing order of confidence: CIN, LAC, CHI, DAL, SEA, PIT, GB, BUF, KC.

 

[Bababooey]

Alright GoJoe thanks!
I'll either be swimming in tendies or doing bareback blowjobs behind the Arby's for $20 after this weekend's nfl games.



I agree, Philly is just really discombobulated, elliott missed a 29yd FG, wentz threw an int in the endzone, they would have covered the spread if they werent such fuckups but they got the win over one of the few teams worse than them. Geez, this NFC East, their fan bases must be hanging their heads in shame.

Bama favored by 21 vs TN seems like a given, but other than that i'll probably stick to your nfl picks. Just going through them real quick I could talk myself into all of them. Do you ever just bet on the favorite for a straight win? The payout is less but u might win more?

 

[G.O. Joe]

I'd have to do an analysis of the full season to see what I should have done, but haven't been keeping track of ML payouts in my records.

NYG was just getting crushed in the first half, but you wouldn't know it by the score. Bad decisions.

Looks like UAB will win money for me - let's go ahead and count that towards my 16-game record for the week. I was worried with the huge swing towards ULL and still don't know what that was all about.

It was about a pretty sharp move. They lost by 4 and were +2.5. UAB kept throwing INT's and giving up 100 yard returns like someone knew something.

 

[Bababooey]

[FONT=&quot]I suppose taking a favorite on a straight win nets you less, or much less if they were a heavy favorite, but ive heard of people making tons of money just betting on favorites. Of course if there’s a true upset youre screwed, on that bet at least. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Eagles should have been up by 13 instead of 3 at halftime, but the int in the endzone and missing a chippie FG left the giants close, even though they were getting dominated on offense like u said. I know Daniel jones stats suck, but on some plays he looks darn impressive, strong accurate arm, can run some (even though he tripped himself up on a clear path to the endzone, still an impressive display of speed). I wouldn’t mind him on the bears if they win the Lawrence sweepstakes. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Heh, u think some sharps are throwing money at poor college students to influence the line in mid-major games? Perish the thought! Although I could easily see it, these mid major footballers arent getting paid 6 figures by major boosters like at Bama or OSU, the vast majority aren’t pro prospects, why not take 10 or 20k to have a bad play or 3 during a game? Not like youre ruining your chances at making the CFP…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I wanted to lay a bet down on WI over IL, WI was favored by 20 but figured they’d kill IL and they won by 38. Other than the surprise IL win last season, Wisco usually kills the illini. But for some reason I didn’t see a line for that game on Fanduel. Sucks but ah well…[/FONT]

 

[pop_rocks]

i made peanut brittle before and its not that hard, just melt the ingredients in a pan and add baking soda
it was basically dry roasted peanuts, sugar, corn syrup and the trick was baking soda
once you get a certain temp you just add in baking soda and it creates a reaction
when we first did it we dident even use a thermometer, just eye balled it
now i have some decent tools and am into making candy so i would look for a certain temp and then take it off heat and add the other ingredients
that is a great idea using glycerol bab! i am going to have to look into this farther but that could be a game changer righter there brother!
i really like this claypool kid and last night my friend brother stopped byhe is into the college game and he could not believe how that this kid slipped that far down in the draft
i dident have eny numbers but im assuming it had to do with combine numbers, but he has good size and from what i heard played well for nd
i just think he has a certain it factor and a case could be made that he is helping pitt be the team that they are
/real champs change a team, not just put up stats
this has been a really good year for rookies and i cant wait to see how some of these guys develop
steelers/titans looks like a great game and im also looking foreward to the bucs/ raiders game this weekend
but the big game for me will be monday night with the rams v the bears
we will see who puts up the points but both teams need this win

//hope to meet you behind the arbies later baba
do you take reservations?
ill even bring you some candies//

 

[G.O. Joe]

Heh, u think some sharps are throwing money at poor college students to influence the line in mid-major games?

If you read the fine print in the casino rules you'll see that they seem to think it's a possibility.

Levi Lewis threw for two touchdowns, Chris Smith returned a kickoff 100 yards and Louisiana-Lafayette used two fourth-quarter interceptions to beat UAB 24-20 on Friday night, snapping the Blazers’ 21-game home winning streak. ULL trailed the first three quarters before Pearse Migl caught his first pass of the season, going for a 9-yard touchdown, to give the Ragin’ Cajuns a 24-20 lead with 6:35 left. On UAB’s next possession, Cameron Solomon intercepted Bryson Lucero’s deep pass. Rhys Byrns booted a 74-yard punt to put UAB at its 6 with 1:16 remaining, and Bralen Trahan sealed it three plays later with an interception.

Games involving Sun Belt teams, and ULL in particular, are hard to predict, unless you look for sharp action. There is similar money on GA Tech, State, and Southern, FL St, Baylor, UTEP, and SC, but I agree with all these.

But for some reason I didn’t see a line for that game on Fanduel

Maybe the reason you have to go all the way to East Peoria or wherever to sign up is because the nearer casinos have deals with other mobile players?

 

[Bababooey]

[FONT=&quot]I figured peanut brittle isn’t a complicated candy to make, other than timing the heat right like u said. Most candies don’t have all that many ingredients unless they have fillings or things like that. Do u use an infrared thermometer to check temp now? Those are usually used in construction but I think theyre very convenient for checking temps of liquids, maybe not so much meat where you need the inner temp not the outer temp…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Im not sure if any recipes use glycerol but it’s basically sugar alcohol so maybe u can use it like corn syrup? I know glycerol or glycerine is sometimes used in non-candy recipes (like jerky or something) but maybe some quick online research will reveal what you can sub it in for.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Chase claypool actually had great combine numbers, his SPARC score which is basically his size & athleticism score ranked 96%, so he was in the top 5% of athletes at his size/weight. But it was a receiver heavy draft this past draft and he didn’t make it to the first round, more heralded receivers did even though, like u said, he had a great last season at ND. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]He’s quickly becoming the #1WR on Pitt, but diontae johnson has been out with injuries for most of the year and juju is still good (usually) and james Washington doesn’t suck so not sure he’ll continue to be their top receiving weapon but mike tomlin isnt stupid, if he sees claypool continue to make plays every time he gets a touch he’ll make sure more opportunities go his way. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Rams are favored by 6 but Gojoe thinks bears will beat that, Im in agreement with him too. It’s in LA and bears O still isnt good but the D will be enough to keep the game close I think. What do u think? Rams by 20? [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Lol, if you bring some candies to help wash the taste out of my mouth Ill make sure I don’t rush you like my other clients. Alright this is going too far, my arby’s doesn’t even have an alley it’s a standalone store…[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Alright GJ, I see what u mean now, UAB was initially favored by 2.5 on Monday and it swung to ULL favored by 2.5 by Wed, 3.0 by Thursday, settling at 2.5 on Fri (game day). So a line movement of 6pts is pretty big huh, especially if it’s a close game and the underdog is now favored? I know sharp money is a good indicator of… something. Didn’t that one NBA ref, tim donahy, who got convicted of point shaving in his games, the initial suspicion came from following big money being bet in the Bahamas and winning consistently? Or something like that. So you could do a lot worse than following sharp money since the pro gamblers, well, they wouldnt be pro for very long if they werent consistently winning.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Actually I didn’t have to sign up at Par-a-dice, they have this location finder extension you install on your PC that can confirm youre located in IL so never had to go all the way out there (Draftkings is worse, you have to go to East St louis to sign up in person but if they have a similar location thingy I wont have to do that). But lately it hasn’t been working on my pc for some reason (maybe need to clear cookies or something) but it works fine on my smartphone so long as u give the app location permission. Im not sure if youre in the states but if theres some way to spoof your location it might work for you too…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]There's another smaller IL-only sportsbook that opened up that maybe has more convenient places for in person signup maybe if they have some good promotions ill take advantage of that.
[/FONT]

 

[G.O. Joe]

Usually when the wheels fall off a team, some of them are put back on for the next game, which is why my number for Dallas was an average instead of last-game. The number now is a shithole of unprecedented depth. A dumpster fire of dirty diapers being fought with pig manure, aboard a train derailing onto a torpedoed ship carrying atomic bombs. The owner should consider firing the GM.

 

[Bababooey]

A dumpster fire of dirty diapers being fought with pig manure, aboard a train derailing onto a torpedoed ship carrying atomic bombs. The owner should consider firing the GM.

Ahahaha, great description of Dallas's offense today. Geez louise, they should give Dak a Mahomes-like contract after that spectacle today. Dalton wasnt doing anything (50% completion, 75yds, 1 int) before getting knocked out with a concussion midway through the 3rd, Zeke is the 2nd highest paid RB in the league but has been getting worse since getting paid, and the terrible D was the lone bright spot, holding WFT to 3 pts in the 2nd half (granted they were just trying to bleed clock). To be fair to Dalton, the Dallas Oline, after being the strength of the team, is playing basically all 2nd stringers now. But maybe if the GM (Jerruh, the owner, lol i bet a lot of dallas fans want him to fire himself too) trades for Fitzmagic maybe they could get back on track. But tua is due to make his first start next week and he might be vulnerable to injuries so Fins might want to keep Fitzy around unless they get a yuuuge offer.

So from now on youre going to consider dallas a bottom 5 team in considering future lines?



On the plus side your picks went 5-2 in the day games, with Bills barely missing covering the 10pt spread vs the jets. Everyone else covered, some just barely. Chargers had to come from behind to win by 10 (spread was 7), Pack killed the texans, browns won by 3 with a last second comeback but were favored by 3.5 (whew), steelers won by 3 but were 1pt dogs, and chiefs killed the broncos.

Right now hawks are up 10 on the cards so covering comfortably (line was 3.5) but all it takes is an AZ td to flip the script. We'll see how this plays out. Plus the bears tomorrow, khalil mack is questionable for tomorrow with some back issue, if bears cant keep goff on his heels then they might be in big trouble, goff is basically elite when he's got a clean pocket...