yes, yes we do. thanx for pointing that out with your ad hominem attack on D'Souza.
-
ICMag and The Vault are running a NEW contest! You can check it here. Prizes are seeds & forum premium access. Come join in!
Joe Biden Thread
- Thread starter aridbud
- Start date
If you go to Arizona, you can see Apache bone fragments all over near the cave they were slaughtered in. They said they tried to get them to come out several times, and did get 1 little boy who the captain or General raised as his own.
November 03, 2020 Horowitz: Early morning, Election Day: The polls actually show a map nearly identical to 2016
Here we go...
Daniel Horowitz
If you listen to the horse race commentators and the national polls they tout, Trump is underperforming his 2016 performance in nearly every demographic and will lose in a landslide. However, if you look at the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average of the most critical states, they are roughly in line with where they were in 2016 … when Trump won. Given what we already know about early voting dynamics in some of the critical states, this analysis actually shows that, even according to the same polling baseline of 2016, Trump is very much in the game.
Here is a table of key states from 2016 comparing the final RCP polling averages to the final election results.
Now let's take the differential in the 2016 RCP average for each state and add the difference to the current RCP state averages for this election. These averages were posted as of 5:00 a.m. ET, November 3, 2020.
Even if we assume the exact same bias and that the polls are not more compromised than they were last time, Trump would very much be in the game. In fact, technically, Trump would be on pace to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, while easily maintaining Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. That would give him 260 electoral votes, though with a very quixotic mix of states.
Among the remaining states, Trump would be just 0.3 points behind in Michigan, 1 point behind in Arizona, and a nail-biting 0.1 behind in Florida.
With that said, very few people believe Trump will not win Florida, given the increased strength of Republican voter registration, the strong early vote turnout, and the flip of the Cubans in Miami-Dade County to Trump. Even Larry Sabato, who has Trump losing every other battleground state, believes he will win Florida. Assuming the polls are wrong about the other states, there's no reason to believe Florida polls this cycle would somehow have a more pro-Trump bias.
Thus, such a result would actually net a map of 289 for Trump.
However, if Trump really were to win the Rust Belt and Midwest states again, it's hard to see him losing Arizona. Moreover, with the polling even more out of whack this year, the polling in Michigan could easily be off an additional 1-2 points, as we've seen the polls tend to be wildly off in the Midwest. Also, in 2016, Arizona was not polled nearly as much, because it was only viewed as marginally in reach for Democrats, so Trump actually underperformed his polling. It's reasonable to believe that if the other key swing states are off by that much, Arizona's polling would fall more in line with the polls we are seeing from states like North Carolina and Ohio.Finally, almost all of the polls show Trump closing strong in some of the critical states, such as Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. In the critical state of Pennsylvania, for example, the trend line for Trump is straight up, and unlike other battleground states, the Keystone State doesn't have early voting. Thus, Trump will capitalize on a larger pool of voters at his peak performance.
To be clear, all these states, under this analysis, would be very close. It doesn't mean Trump is necessarily going to win. But it does mean that he fundamentally has the same map he did in 2016, give or take, and is not starring down the barrel of a Barry Goldwater-style blowout, as many of the national polls are predicting. He will likely bleed some voters he won last time but win others within the same contours of those Rust Belt states. How much he gives and how much he takes will determine the entire ballgame.
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-polls-election-map-2016
Here we go...
Daniel Horowitz
If you listen to the horse race commentators and the national polls they tout, Trump is underperforming his 2016 performance in nearly every demographic and will lose in a landslide. However, if you look at the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average of the most critical states, they are roughly in line with where they were in 2016 … when Trump won. Given what we already know about early voting dynamics in some of the critical states, this analysis actually shows that, even according to the same polling baseline of 2016, Trump is very much in the game.
Here is a table of key states from 2016 comparing the final RCP polling averages to the final election results.
Now let's take the differential in the 2016 RCP average for each state and add the difference to the current RCP state averages for this election. These averages were posted as of 5:00 a.m. ET, November 3, 2020.
Even if we assume the exact same bias and that the polls are not more compromised than they were last time, Trump would very much be in the game. In fact, technically, Trump would be on pace to win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, while easily maintaining Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. That would give him 260 electoral votes, though with a very quixotic mix of states.
With that said, very few people believe Trump will not win Florida, given the increased strength of Republican voter registration, the strong early vote turnout, and the flip of the Cubans in Miami-Dade County to Trump. Even Larry Sabato, who has Trump losing every other battleground state, believes he will win Florida. Assuming the polls are wrong about the other states, there's no reason to believe Florida polls this cycle would somehow have a more pro-Trump bias.
Thus, such a result would actually net a map of 289 for Trump.
To be clear, all these states, under this analysis, would be very close. It doesn't mean Trump is necessarily going to win. But it does mean that he fundamentally has the same map he did in 2016, give or take, and is not starring down the barrel of a Barry Goldwater-style blowout, as many of the national polls are predicting. He will likely bleed some voters he won last time but win others within the same contours of those Rust Belt states. How much he gives and how much he takes will determine the entire ballgame.
https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-polls-election-map-2016
Yahoo says its 8-3 with trump in the lead, but Joe has 18,000 more votes Only 6 million counted so far
St. Phatty
Active member
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/florida-president-results
live map of florida counties.
if Trump wins Florida, Biden still has a chance.
if Trump loses Florida, game over.
live map of florida counties.
if Trump wins Florida, Biden still has a chance.
if Trump loses Florida, game over.
X
xavier7995
Kentucky and Vermont don't have a whole lot of people to count.
Good luck out there folks, whomever your choice may be. I'm cracking up as apparently npr mentioned the trumpers in the intersection down the street. Had to drive through it to get bread and gin, I feel bad for the handful of Biden people trying to counter protest/rally/whatever.
Been trying to stay out of here, but earlier I started long posting on crowd sizes and while that is a clear ass metric that got missed in 2016, this is a different race. Something like 70% of dems are just voting against trump, we don't really like biden enough to get out in the streets, but he gets our vote. Considering masks and social distancing are political decisions for whatever stupid reason, it would be a bad look for dems to have large gatherings.
Walking around the neighborhood over Halloween there were 3 trump houses and about 15 biden ones, 100 or so with no signs. My area is 60/40 in favor of Republicans, but that loss of support in the burbs and with women is really apparent. We will see how it plays out.
Edit: getting some tasty takeout, eating and smoking a bunch of weed. Yall should do the same.
Good luck out there folks, whomever your choice may be. I'm cracking up as apparently npr mentioned the trumpers in the intersection down the street. Had to drive through it to get bread and gin, I feel bad for the handful of Biden people trying to counter protest/rally/whatever.
Been trying to stay out of here, but earlier I started long posting on crowd sizes and while that is a clear ass metric that got missed in 2016, this is a different race. Something like 70% of dems are just voting against trump, we don't really like biden enough to get out in the streets, but he gets our vote. Considering masks and social distancing are political decisions for whatever stupid reason, it would be a bad look for dems to have large gatherings.
Walking around the neighborhood over Halloween there were 3 trump houses and about 15 biden ones, 100 or so with no signs. My area is 60/40 in favor of Republicans, but that loss of support in the burbs and with women is really apparent. We will see how it plays out.
Edit: getting some tasty takeout, eating and smoking a bunch of weed. Yall should do the same.
Hempy McNoodle
Well-known member
Trump supporters rarely post signs. Hence, the term, 'silent majority.' We know he is going to win, we don't need to put ourselves at risk. In the last 4 years in the bay area, I have seen zero MAGA hats. Does that mean there are zero Trump voters?
X
xavier7995
Bruh...that fucking san Francisco. It doesn't represent the real world. Trumpers aren't shy elsewhere, and the thrust of my argument is that the silent majority doesn't mean Republicans or Democrats, its the middle. That's joes bread and butter, trump tacked right and doubled down on his base. Most of us just want the country to function again. People are sick of it being run as a reality show trying to get ratings.
Honestly...California breaks republican brains. Good lord dude, trying to equate a republican in sf is as tone deaf as when Obama said 250k was middle class.
Honestly...California breaks republican brains. Good lord dude, trying to equate a republican in sf is as tone deaf as when Obama said 250k was middle class.
biden is looking steady in ohio....
St. Phatty
Active member
biden is looking steady in ohio....
Ohio Michigan Pennsylvania & KANSAS ?!
allegedly leaning Biden - is that early counting or polling ?
from
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/president/
X
xavier7995
Kansas would be a hard sell on going blue. Kansas city Kansas doesn't have the majority of residents for the kc area and the burbs on that side are classic republican zones. Lawrence is the only other dem leaner, but they don't have much in terms of population. I guess witchita would be a toss up, only been there once and it seemed like a typical small midwest city.
Kyle Kulinski & Joe Rogan w/Tim Dillon - End of the World Presidential Podcast LIVE!
Alex Jones is rumored to make an appearance lmao i'm waiting for that to hopefully happen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkjxSKrcbOg
[youtubeif]KkjxSKrcbOg[/youtubeif]
Alex Jones is rumored to make an appearance lmao i'm waiting for that to hopefully happen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkjxSKrcbOg
[youtubeif]KkjxSKrcbOg[/youtubeif]
i’m not sure about kansas brotha,
early voting is my guess;
but if biden wins ohio,
trumpanzee has no path to reelection
:yay:
X
xavier7995
Muh gawd guys, grew my own attempt at creating a nl x haze by making a generic nl just throwing a bunch of nl5 dominant stuff together and selecting towards what i wanted and a haze-ish type by doing the same...its very good. Day made.
Jo Jorgensen 4 prez.
Jo Jorgensen 4 prez.
Does Joe Biden still have a path to 270?
nice fella
Member
It's wonderful that an Israeli publication is confident that, whichever side occupies Washington, Washington will side with Israel. It must be great to have such assurance about your people's long-term future.
My people are destined for extinction, and if you talk about it in a negative light you get an FBI file.
Your people?
