It's the Climate, stupid

[Chi13]

Extreme weather in China highlights climate change impacts and need for early warnings​

Format News and Press Release Source

Posted25 Aug 2022 Originally published24 Aug 2022 OriginView original
Extreme weather – record-breaking heatwaves, severe drought, and deadly rainfall – have battered China since June. The summer of extremes – in China as in Europe – has underlined the importance of the WMO community’s commitment to Early Warning and Early Action and reinforced the need for the ongoing campaign to provide Early Warnings for All in the next five years.
The high socio-economic and environmental cost of the extreme weather has also highlighted the vulnerability of the world’s most populous nation to climate change impacts and the need for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“The weather and climate situation in China is severe and complex. Extreme temperature and drought in the South and high precipitation in the North. The superimposed situation of drought and flood has brought challenges to disaster prevention, mitigation and relief work,” said WMO Assistant Secretary-General Dr Wenjian Zhang. “We are clearly witnessing the impacts of climate change.”

Heatwave

In terms of the intensity, impacts, scale, and duration, the regional heatwave in southern China which started 13 June was the strongest since complete meteorological observation records started in 1961, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

By 15 August, the heatwave broke the 2013 record of 62 days. National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China has issued 30 Red high temperature red warnings. Official climate forecasters predict the current heatwave will only begin to subside on August 26.

More than 200 national observatories broke through the historical extreme value of the highest temperature.

Some 1 680 meteorological observatories have had of above 35℃ - covering an area of 4.5 million square kilometers in China or almost half of the country's total land area.  The incidence of temperatures of above 40℃ has been the largest on record.

A total of 914 national meteorological observatories (accounting for 37.7 percent of the total number of national meteorological observatories in China) have reached the standard for extreme heat wave events, and 262 of them in Hebei, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Qinghai and other places equaled or exceeded the historical maximum temperature records.

Drought

Since 1 July, most of the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River have experienced low precipitation and long-lasting high temperatures. In some places, precipitation is more than 80% lower than normal, reaching moderate to severe meteorological drought and a high risk of forest fires.

According to data released by China's Ministry of Emergency Management, the drought disaster alone in July affected 5.527 million people and caused a direct economic loss of 2.73 billion Chinese yuan.

The Ministry of Water Resources of China has launched an emergency response to drought prevention, implemented the "Special Action for Joint Operation of Reservoir Groups in the Yangtze River Basin to Fight Drought and Ensure Water Supply" and increase the outflow of reservoirs to replenish water downstream.

The National Meteorological Centre and Beijing Climate Centre released an orange warning of meteorological drought on 22 August and CMA activated level four emergency responses on 23 August.

Under this emergency state, relevant meteorological departments and provincial meteorological departments like Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Sichuan have to implement timely and precise forecast and refined services for the government, related sector and the public.

Forest Fires

On 22 August, three government departments (the Ministry of Emergency Management, the State Forestry and Grassland Administration, and the China Meteorological Administration) jointly issued the first red color warning of high forest fire danger this year. It is expected that from August 23 to 25, the forest fire danger level in parts of central and southern Chongqing and eastern Sichuan will reach an extremely dangerous level. Strict precautions should be taken, and fire source management should be strengthened to ensure the safety of forest areas.

Experts suggest that local governments should strengthen the management and control of fire sources in forest areas, strictly prohibit the use of fire in forest areas, issue early warning information in a timely manner, strengthen fire prevention popularization, and raise public awareness of fire prevention.

Rainfall and Floods

In contrast with southern China, large parts of the North have witnessed unusually heavy rainfall. In July, there were six regional heavy rain events in China, four of which occurred in the North (1.4 more than the same period of the previous year). The daily precipitation of 30 national weather stations exceeded the extreme value in July.

In July, flood disasters occurred in North China (mostly in Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces) and West China (mostly in Sichuan and Gansu Provinces). On 18 August, a mountain torrent in Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County, Xining City, Qinghai Province, caused many casualties.

The National Meteorological Centre forecasts that a new round of rainfall process will batter northern China from 21 to 23 August.

Early warning, early action

On 19 August the China Meteorological Administration convened a special meeting to discuss the provision of meteorological services for flood control, disaster relief and drought management.

Zhuang Guotai, the administrator of the China Meteorological Administration, emphasized the importance of the principle of people first and life first in flood control and drought relief meteorological services.

The meeting outlined three key priorities:

• Enhancing meteorological monitoring, forecasting and early warning in a timely manner in order to prevent sudden and local meteorological disasters, and to provide drought-relief meteorological services to local governments.
• To strengthen the early warning and early action by mobilizing responsible government departments and emergency response officers and providing impact-based decision-making support for disaster prevention and mitigation.
• To increase public risk prevention awareness and skills and disaster preparedness.

Climate policy

Extreme weather events have strengthen public awareness of climate change and support for government measures and strategies to address climate change.

In June 2022, the Chinese government released a new policy document to improve its response to climate change, which it said was not only creating long-term challenges but also made the country more vulnerable to "sudden and extreme" events.

"Climate change has already brought serious adverse impacts to China's natural ecological system, and has continued to spread into economy and society," the government said in its national climate change adaptation strategy.

The new policy document updates China's National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation, published in November 2013.

China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment approved the National Strategy on Climate Adaptation 2035 in February 2022. A separate implementation plan is expected to complement the strategy. All sectors and localities are encouraged to formulate their own adaptation plans.

China's economy and society are at increasing risk from climate change and the country needs to improve adaptation mechanisms and monitoring capabilities at every level of government, according to a new policy document.

Extreme weather in China highlights climate change impacts and need for early warnings - China

News and Press Release in English on China about Climate Change and Environment, Disaster Management, Drought, Flood and more; published on 24 Aug 2022 by WMO

reliefweb.int

 

[St. Phatty]

Did the cal

I saw a map of the countries most affected by climate change on tele this morning (yes, it was a left wing upper middle class Arab/UK news program called Al Jazeera). The map showed the US as being among the least affected.

For me this is a sad, sad, irony and inclines my belief justice is not natural.

countries most affected by climate change Al Jazeera - Google Search

A bunch of articles.

Flooding in the US, Flooding in Pakistan.

Pakistan is hit harder, partially because they are poorer, and because of a situation specific to Pakistan, India, and China - they have a boatload of glaciers at 20,000+ feet elevation.

The US is approximately equally affected Climate-wise, just not as affected economically - in the short term.

However, along the lines of "the bigger they are, the harder they fall", the economic effects of Climate Change in the US will at times be, Rather Dramatic.

BUT we won't know for sure what is and is not Climate Change related, for another 100 or so years.

All we know now is that CO2 levels are higher. And that human beings burn a whole lot of carboniferous sh-t as part of their "civilization".

However it is not accurate to blame Carbon.

Even if we switched to 100% Nuclear, we would still be heating the Earth's surface.

The main difference would be, the waste product would be materials with radiation damage that sit in big piles at places like Hanford, instead of CO2 generation as a by-product of Combustion in an Oxygen atmosphere.

 

[mexcurandero420]

It's the windmills responsible for the floods in Pakistan.

Climate change: Electrical industry's 'dirty secret' boosts warming

It's the most powerful greenhouse gas you've never heard of, and levels in the atmosphere are soaring.

www.bbc.com

 

[armedoldhippy]

no one blames carbon alone. scientists say that it is a mix of the carbon with other chemicals/gases in the atmosphere that is the problem. the thing is, WE could control & cut down on ONE of those, the co2...

 

[mexcurandero420]

That doesn't make sense when we cut down CO2 and let the other explode to huge quantities, which is far more worse.

 

[St. Phatty]

https://www.youtube.com/c/TheLookout1

This guy in Chico California has some pretty good wildfire webcasts.

Though sometimes he holds back and tries to make people feel good, when they SHOULD be panicking, constructively panicking that is.

 

[h.h.]

Did the cal

countries most affected by climate change Al Jazeera - Google Search

A bunch of articles.

Flooding in the US, Flooding in Pakistan.

Pakistan is hit harder, partially because they are poorer, and because of a situation specific to Pakistan, India, and China - they have a boatload of glaciers at 20,000+ feet elevation.

The US is approximately equally affected Climate-wise, just not as affected economically - in the short term.

However, along the lines of "the bigger they are, the harder they fall", the economic effects of Climate Change in the US will at times be, Rather Dramatic.

BUT we won't know for sure what is and is not Climate Change related, for another 100 or so years.

All we know now is that CO2 levels are higher. And that human beings burn a whole lot of carboniferous sh-t as part of their "civilization".

However it is not accurate to blame Carbon.

Even if we switched to 100% Nuclear, we would still be heating the Earth's surface.

The main difference would be, the waste product would be materials with radiation damage that sit in big piles at places like Hanford, instead of CO2 generation as a by-product of Combustion in an Oxygen atmosphere.

As the devil said..
“Door number 1 or door number 2? It makes no difference to me.”

 

[VenerableHippie]

Extreme weather in China highlights climate change impacts and need for early warnings​

Format News and Press Release Source

Posted25 Aug 2022 Originally published24 Aug 2022 OriginView original
Extreme weather – record-breaking heatwaves, severe drought, and deadly rainfall – have battered China since June. The summer of extremes – in China as in Europe – has underlined the importance of the WMO community’s commitment to Early Warning and Early Action and reinforced the need for the ongoing campaign to provide Early Warnings for All in the next five years.
The high socio-economic and environmental cost of the extreme weather has also highlighted the vulnerability of the world’s most populous nation to climate change impacts and the need for urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
“The weather and climate situation in China is severe and complex. Extreme temperature and drought in the South and high precipitation in the North. The superimposed situation of drought and flood has brought challenges to disaster prevention, mitigation and relief work,” said WMO Assistant Secretary-General Dr Wenjian Zhang. “We are clearly witnessing the impacts of climate change.”

Heatwave

In terms of the intensity, impacts, scale, and duration, the regional heatwave in southern China which started 13 June was the strongest since complete meteorological observation records started in 1961, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

By 15 August, the heatwave broke the 2013 record of 62 days. National Meteorological Center (NMC) of China has issued 30 Red high temperature red warnings. Official climate forecasters predict the current heatwave will only begin to subside on August 26.

More than 200 national observatories broke through the historical extreme value of the highest temperature.

Some 1 680 meteorological observatories have had of above 35℃ - covering an area of 4.5 million square kilometers in China or almost half of the country's total land area.  The incidence of temperatures of above 40℃ has been the largest on record.

A total of 914 national meteorological observatories (accounting for 37.7 percent of the total number of national meteorological observatories in China) have reached the standard for extreme heat wave events, and 262 of them in Hebei, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Qinghai and other places equaled or exceeded the historical maximum temperature records.

Drought

Since 1 July, most of the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River have experienced low precipitation and long-lasting high temperatures. In some places, precipitation is more than 80% lower than normal, reaching moderate to severe meteorological drought and a high risk of forest fires.

According to data released by China's Ministry of Emergency Management, the drought disaster alone in July affected 5.527 million people and caused a direct economic loss of 2.73 billion Chinese yuan.

The Ministry of Water Resources of China has launched an emergency response to drought prevention, implemented the "Special Action for Joint Operation of Reservoir Groups in the Yangtze River Basin to Fight Drought and Ensure Water Supply" and increase the outflow of reservoirs to replenish water downstream.

The National Meteorological Centre and Beijing Climate Centre released an orange warning of meteorological drought on 22 August and CMA activated level four emergency responses on 23 August.

Under this emergency state, relevant meteorological departments and provincial meteorological departments like Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Sichuan have to implement timely and precise forecast and refined services for the government, related sector and the public.

Forest Fires

On 22 August, three government departments (the Ministry of Emergency Management, the State Forestry and Grassland Administration, and the China Meteorological Administration) jointly issued the first red color warning of high forest fire danger this year. It is expected that from August 23 to 25, the forest fire danger level in parts of central and southern Chongqing and eastern Sichuan will reach an extremely dangerous level. Strict precautions should be taken, and fire source management should be strengthened to ensure the safety of forest areas.

Experts suggest that local governments should strengthen the management and control of fire sources in forest areas, strictly prohibit the use of fire in forest areas, issue early warning information in a timely manner, strengthen fire prevention popularization, and raise public awareness of fire prevention.

Rainfall and Floods

In contrast with southern China, large parts of the North have witnessed unusually heavy rainfall. In July, there were six regional heavy rain events in China, four of which occurred in the North (1.4 more than the same period of the previous year). The daily precipitation of 30 national weather stations exceeded the extreme value in July.

In July, flood disasters occurred in North China (mostly in Heilongjiang and Liaoning Provinces) and West China (mostly in Sichuan and Gansu Provinces). On 18 August, a mountain torrent in Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County, Xining City, Qinghai Province, caused many casualties.

The National Meteorological Centre forecasts that a new round of rainfall process will batter northern China from 21 to 23 August.

Early warning, early action

On 19 August the China Meteorological Administration convened a special meeting to discuss the provision of meteorological services for flood control, disaster relief and drought management.

Zhuang Guotai, the administrator of the China Meteorological Administration, emphasized the importance of the principle of people first and life first in flood control and drought relief meteorological services.

The meeting outlined three key priorities:

• Enhancing meteorological monitoring, forecasting and early warning in a timely manner in order to prevent sudden and local meteorological disasters, and to provide drought-relief meteorological services to local governments.
• To strengthen the early warning and early action by mobilizing responsible government departments and emergency response officers and providing impact-based decision-making support for disaster prevention and mitigation.
• To increase public risk prevention awareness and skills and disaster preparedness.

Climate policy

Extreme weather events have strengthen public awareness of climate change and support for government measures and strategies to address climate change.

In June 2022, the Chinese government released a new policy document to improve its response to climate change, which it said was not only creating long-term challenges but also made the country more vulnerable to "sudden and extreme" events.

"Climate change has already brought serious adverse impacts to China's natural ecological system, and has continued to spread into economy and society," the government said in its national climate change adaptation strategy.

The new policy document updates China's National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation, published in November 2013.

China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment approved the National Strategy on Climate Adaptation 2035 in February 2022. A separate implementation plan is expected to complement the strategy. All sectors and localities are encouraged to formulate their own adaptation plans.

China's economy and society are at increasing risk from climate change and the country needs to improve adaptation mechanisms and monitoring capabilities at every level of government, according to a new policy document.

Extreme weather in China highlights climate change impacts and need for early warnings - China

News and Press Release in English on China about Climate Change and Environment, Disaster Management, Drought, Flood and more; published on 24 Aug 2022 by WMO

reliefweb.int

I saw a clip on the news ... a Chinese guy was telling the reporter he hopes the drought doesn't go for another year or there will be no town any more. Like, no water, no crops, no business, no people.

 

[Hempy McNoodle]

 

[mexcurandero420]

 

[armedoldhippy]

I saw a clip on the news ... a Chinese guy was telling the reporter he hopes the drought doesn't go for another year or there will be no town any more. Like, no water, no crops, no business, no people.

same thing likely to happen across the west coast and southwest. we've built huge cities in places with no water, and Mother Nature has cut her supply of it to a literal trickle. killing off the native life-forms IE fish etc in order to irrigate crops & water rich peoples lawns, fill swimming pools etc. we are draining the Ogallala aquifer across the midwest MUCH faster than rain replenishes it in order to sustain the agriculture there, worth over $35 billion... politicians out west (and elsewhere, stupid is not corralled by geography) are talking up prospects of a pipeline from the Mississippi river to replenish lakes etc. but...they ignore the problems already occurring in the Gulf of Mexico from overuse of fertilizers. cutting down the amount of water reaching the Gulf would perhaps exacerbate those issues, and send that over-fertilized water elsewhere to cause problems THERE.... a fucking shell game being played in hopes of kicking the can further down the road long enough for another crop of pols to retire. sad...

 

[Hempy McNoodle]

same thing likely to happen across the west coast and southwest. we've built huge cities in places with no water, and Mother Nature has cut her supply of it to a literal trickle. killing off the native life-forms IE fish etc in order to irrigate crops & water rich peoples lawns, fill swimming pools etc. we are draining the Ogallala aquifer across the mudwest MUCH faster than rain replenishes it in order to sustain the agriculture there, worth over $35 billion... politicians out west (and elsewhere, stupid is not corralled by geography) are talking up prospects of a pipeline from the Mississippi river to replenish lakes etc. but...they ignore the problems already occurring in the Gulf of Mexico from overuse of fertilizers. cutting down the amount of water reaching the Gulf would perhaps exacerbate those issues, and send that over-fertilized water elsewhere to cause problems THERE.... a fucking shell game being played in hopes of kicking the can further down the road long enough for another crop of pols to retire. sad...

This is false. The reason CA is in a severe drought is because our state government drained our reservoirs. They justified this a necessary to save a small fish which is on the brink of extinction called the Delta Smelt.

 

[Hempy McNoodle]

 

[St. Phatty]

Professional weather forecast

50+ weather layers, weather radar and satellite

www.windy.com

A useful website.

Set for Roseville CA & the Mosquito Fire.

 

[h.h.]

They can’t get water to Jacksonville.

 

[VenerableHippie]

same thing likely to happen across the west coast and southwest. we've built huge cities in places with no water, and Mother Nature has cut her supply of it to a literal trickle. killing off the native life-forms IE fish etc in order to irrigate crops & water rich peoples lawns, fill swimming pools etc. we are draining the Ogallala aquifer across the mudwest MUCH faster than rain replenishes it in order to sustain the agriculture there, worth over $35 billion... politicians out west (and elsewhere, stupid is not corralled by geography) are talking up prospects of a pipeline from the Mississippi river to replenish lakes etc. but...they ignore the problems already occurring in the Gulf of Mexico from overuse of fertilizers. cutting down the amount of water reaching the Gulf would perhaps exacerbate those issues, and send that over-fertilized water elsewhere to cause problems THERE.... a fucking shell game being played in hopes of kicking the can further down the road long enough for another crop of pols to retire. sad...

I saw some current film of the reservoirs in Cal!!!!!! I 'll bet your water supplies are privatised, eh? Run for profit. That happened in Western Australia and sure enough the underground aquifer was drained. What a fuck up ...

 

[Hempy McNoodle]

I saw some current film of the reservoirs in Cal!!!!!! I 'll bet your water supplies are privatised, eh? Run for profit. That happened in Western Australia and sure enough the underground aquifer was drained. What a fuck up ...

There was a huge scandal in the past about 5-10 years ago. Nestle's was illegally pumping and bottling CAs water to be sold for profit. They did not have any permit and they pillaged CA's aquifers. Then, when the flynt, MI water crisis happened (due to a political decision to divert water from a clean source to a non clean source) and the people of flynt were poisoned, Nestle's sold that free CA water to FEMA (tax payer dollars) for profit. So, we paid Nestle's to steal CA's water. Corruption. There are good reason$ why flynts water crisis has gone on unsolved for so long. Nestle's may still be stealing our water today. I don't think it ever got resolved. I boycott Nestle.'

So, between Nestle's pumping out our aquifers and Newsom draining our reservoirs, it really should not shock anyone that CA is having a "water crisis." There is also a history of other fake crisis in CA. There were two scandals under Swartzennegger that come to mind. One was a fake budget crisis where they closed down the state parks saying they could not be funded. But they were still going to employ law enforcement to patrol the closed parks. Hempy researched and found that the penalty for one trespassing ticket was more than park entree fees would bring in $$$. So, seems like they stole our parks from us. Policed anyone who couldn't keep away from nature (a strong human need for some), and were bilking the taxpayers for more funding and putting out all these ballot measures as solutions. Then they got caught. They had millions of dollars hidden away and the whole budget crisis was a giant criminal fraud conspiracy. I don't think anyone was prosecuted.

Then there was the whole light brown apple moth scandal which few people know about and Hempy won't get into (at this time).

And, before Swartzennegger (if I recall correctly), there was the infamous Enron scandle where the state allowed this energy company to pretend to have an energy defect crisis. They raised prices and had 'rolling blackouts' and 'brown outs.' And lots of people died. Especially elderly people who were unable to use their AC in a heatwave and some died because they were unable to use medical devices such as oxygen generators.

Kind of reminds me of what is going on all over the western world today. Fake shortages and crisis meant to facilitate and obscure corruption and political warfare (crimes against humanity).

 

[h.h.]

Professional weather forecast

50+ weather layers, weather radar and satellite

www.windy.com

A useful website.

Set for Roseville CA & the Mosquito Fire.

We’re getting all the smoke again.

 

[Chi13]

This is a long article so I've just put up the abstract. I don't think people realise the potential problems when environments no longer sustain populations.

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios​

Abstract​

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119#body-ref-r7

 

[VenerableHippie]

This is a long article so I've just put up the abstract. I don't think people realise the potential problems when environments no longer sustain populations.

Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios​

Abstract​

Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119#body-ref-r7

Of course, above is the Fear.

One of the human mechanisms of escape (from Fear) is Avoidance. And it seems to me, as a somewhat older person who has been studying himself and Others for a while now, that when we collectively talk about Climate Change ... we are doing so to avoid seeing OVERPOPULATION.

Until, when was it, the 70's? there was lots of talk about Limits to Growth. That is: the population of Earth growing beyond sustainable levels.

Nowadays we don't talk about this. Instead we talk about climate change and argue about solutions.

But Earth's population continues to grow ...