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Coronavirus.. outlook
- Thread starter Medfinder
- Start date
T
TheForgotten
Just wait til they start hoarding....
Couldn't order more than 12 tins of baked beans from ASDA - they are rationing certain basic foods already here in the UK -
T
TheForgotten
.
Watching what's going on in Italy makes me think things will progress....
Looking at a map, my province (BC) had it as well as Ontario, now it's in Alberta, spreading like a, well, disease....
I'm not sure we can stop this thing, maybe it will run it's course and subside once the vulnerable have had it and have moved past it.... is there any other way?
Watching what's going on in Italy makes me think things will progress....
Looking at a map, my province (BC) had it as well as Ontario, now it's in Alberta, spreading like a, well, disease....
I'm not sure we can stop this thing, maybe it will run it's course and subside once the vulnerable have had it and have moved past it.... is there any other way?
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- its rationed basic foods now - and at least a week before you can get a delivery - luckily enough I had a few weeks stored already - now hopefully I'll get that delivery next week - or will have to go out there in the melee of the local high street - and try and score some grub that way - limited to 12 kilos of long grained rice at ASDA too -
In a hypothetical scenario where spreading public disorder keeps law enforcement too preoccupied to make house calls, I would much rather rely on my trusty blunderbuss, than expect any mercy when hunger-crazed hordes start to close in.
God created men, goes that Old West saying, but it took Captain Colt, inventor of the Colt 45 six-gun, to make all men equal.
coconutcurry
High
No, you will not stop the virus. I already posted this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
R0 tells you how contagious the virus is and Covid-19 is nearly as contagious as pertussis. This is a 'childhood disease'. Childhood diseases are called so, because you will get this disease in your childhood and this is because the virus is so fucking contagious, that you don't make it until you are grown up. You will get infected and there is nearly no way to avoid this, except you get a vaccination..
And I predict that a couple of Asian countries like Taiwan or Singapore will handle this crisis far better than the US or the EU.
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TychoMonolyth
Boreal Curing
That's if the virus doesn't mutate. And it will. Absolutely. So YOU will not stop it because IT will do that on it's own.
Sure there is. Virus' burn themselves out all the time. They do it when they mutate. When a virus mutates, it's like rolling the dice. There's 1 chance it goes more dangerous, and millions of chances it kills itself off.
----
Hong Kong Flu - 2 Years (1968-1970)
2 million dead. 68k in the US. China strikes again.
Asian Flu - 2 Years (1956-1958)
2 million dead. Like almost ALL pandemics, it started in China. Again.
Flu Pandemic - 2 Years (1918)
20-50 million dead. Influenza had always previously only killed juveniles and elderly. This one left them alive, but killed completely healthy young adults.
Sixth Cholera Pandemic - 1 Year (1910-1911)
800+k dead. (Contaminated water) America, having learned from the past, quickly sought to isolate the infected so only had 11 deaths.
Flu Pandemic - 1 Year (1889-1890)
1 million dead. The first true epidemic in the era of bacteriology.
Third Cholera Pandemic - 9 Years (1852–1860)
1 million dead. Contaminated water was the means of transmission
The Black Death (Bubonic Plague) - 8 Years (1346-1353)
75 – 200 million dead. Likely jumped continents via the fleas living on the rats that so frequently lived aboard merchant ships.
Plague Of Justinian (Bubonic Plague) - 1 Year (541-542)
25 million dead. Constantinople lost 40% of it's population.
Antonine Plague ?Year (165 Ad)
5 million dead. Wiped out the Roman army.
I'm expecting an overloaded health service will lead to more deaths in the Uk, as the spread will be fast, with our 'just drink tea' attitude. The kids have all worked out there 0.02% risk and couldn't care less. The local school hasn't cancelled the Italian ski trip or the Dutch football one. The pub's are busy as always. People are packing out the supermarkets for goods, without a thought towards it speeding the spread. People that don't feel at risk, simply want to carry on. Many are self employed and people here tend to live hand to mouth, there are no savings and no help given to aid people isolating themselves. If you work paye, meaning for a company, then sick pay has been increased, but for the self employed, nothing.
coconutcurry
High
Yes, but this can take years, if not decades or centuries.
If you would be right, there would be no people anymore who die by measles. It's an old disease, but it never mutated to a completely harmless version. And this is the reason for all the vaccinations.
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If viruses mutated to a harmless version by them self, then please explain me that:
"For outbreak studies in rural areas only, the median CFR was 6.63 "
No, this is not Corona, this are Measles. I found here:
https://www.who.int/immunization/sage/Review article of measles CFRs.pdf
Why didn't mutate the measles virus to a harmless form?
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TychoMonolyth
Boreal Curing
Absolutely. The really bad thing about Covid is that people are highly contagious without showing signs that they are infected. Add the fact that it's AIRBORN and you've got a perfect storm. So if there's only a 1% death rate (some figures say it's over 3%), you can expect about 1 million deaths. If it's 3%, raise that to almost 10 million.
T
TheForgotten
Or a silly Chinese mistake opportunely being used for a covert cull...
coconutcurry
High
Official WHO CFR rate: 3.4%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
CFR in Italy yesterday: 6.2%
TychoMonolyth
Boreal Curing
If half of 1% (.05%) of the population get it, at 3.4% CFR, that's still 500k deaths. Scary thought.
