Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

[Snype]

price has definitely changed over the last few years down south for ins.

last year was 30 for highs and this year 25. that last pic i posted went for 25 and would have been 40 in 2008/9. whats more alarming is the disparity between highs and mids for ins. mids at 20-22 and top shelf at 25? thats fuckin crazy. makes me seriously reconsider my strategy. blow out high yielders and scrap the boutique low yielders? I dont rock sours mind you. for stuff that likes to go on a walkabout the numbers across the board seem to stick at 25.

factors I believe have created this market change:

1)I dont have good connections
2) the massive increase in greenhouse grows in nor cal
a- D owners buy up passable mids from up north gh grows for 15ish
and place them on the board at 30 1/8
b- D owners then place outdoor on the board for 20 1/8
c- at this point why would they pay 1000 more for top shelf indoor?
3) prop D limiting competition in the socal area. very few mom and pop places are left. few shops with quality remain. lots of dogo deals using low grade outs and the market has gone ghetto. its become a race to the bottom.

my assessment -
the days of the home grow is at an end. you cant pay residential electricity and stay afloat. The market is at the bottom end. I always thought that as long as I grew the best I would have a place at the table. but what happens is that as long as people buy the stuff the shop gets for 15 to 13, theres no urgency for them to stock more expensive meds. the competition then gets fierce to be the guy the shop does choose to provide their elite top shelf meds.

advantage: outdoor growers who know their shit. its a pure science to grow quality buds outside, definitely not a noob game and those guys get washed out fast. But if you can grow indoor quality buds outside, youre the guy thats replacing all the failing home growers. you can be at 13 to 15 while the shitty outdoor growers are begging people to take thier stuff for 8. by the time it gets to the clubs its 15 to 18 and everyones happy. its all about- can your stuff pass as indoor?

ofcourse none of this applies if you have a friend in philly. this is just my take on cali.

I think the home grower can still do well in the market that you are talking about. The game is going to weed out all the home growers that don't have their game tight with their own retail clients instead of brokers. If the D-owners are moving passable mid grade for 30 1/8, you should have no problem moving 50 1/4 to your own retail clients. If you can't hold onto your retail clients for the long haul, your product is not good enough and the game comes to an end for you.

You're going to need the full package now. Plenty of retail customers still want high grade for decent prices. Once you cut out the middleman, there's more room to work with. I like this type of market because it takes a lot of home growers out of the market and helps get rid of competition.

It's interesting being on the east coast and seeing what you guys are going through. It's like a window into our future but the green rush is still going strong here. It'll probably be a couple years before we are dealing with the problems that you guys are going through. Don't get me wrong, we are going through a small amount of what you are but that's because most growers can't keep their client base because they don't have the quality to stand apart from the heard or they deal with brokers for low prices and continue to tread water.

I would consider the smaller home grower as 4,000 watts and the bigger home growers 16,000 watts. So the smaller guy only needs 25 clients to move 8 pounds and the bigger 16 light guys need 100 clients to move 32 pounds in a 12 week period. If you don't know how to promote and advertise, you're probably not going to do well. The home growers on the 16 light side are probably going to need a delivery driver cause it'll probably be a full time job handling 100 clients. It'll probably cost you $400 a pound in expenses for the driver and expenses which is still reasonable considering he has to average only 2.6 pounds per week for the 16 light guy. The 4-8 light guy shouldn't have to deal with those expenses. So how are you not going to average 200 an oz or 32 a p minus expenses with this strategy no matter what market that you are in? You gotta make your clients feel like they are special and treat them right. You also have to know how to not run out of product or the customer may find a better grower than yourself in the process of waiting. Of course if your product is not connoisseur grade and the strains that your market wants, your time in this game is limited.

 

[ApolloAK]

The home growers who got their shit together and just poney up the $295 for a weedmaps listing and just pay themself 20 a pack because they make just as much on the back end. I know a guy in Sac that's just killing it right now doing this.

 

[stasis]

Cool post Snype.

 

[Elmer Bud]

G`day Snype

25 customers .
If they only visit once per week thats 25 transactions . If they return once . Thats 50 transactions . Takes 5 weeks of sales twice a day to sell your crop .

8 x 454 = 3362 grams . Selling 7 grams per deal = 480 transactions to move your 8 pounds .That`s a lot of time on the phone and interacting with consumers . Are you a grower or a shop keeper ?

$200 an ounce x 144 = 28800. For growing the crop for 100 days + all your retail transactions . $5700 per week less expenses . And obviously this is not a one man op so divide by at least 2 and the margins are getting pretty slim .

Thanks for sharin

EB .

 

[Snype]

G`day Snype

25 customers .
If they only visit once per week thats 25 transactions . If they return once . Thats 50 transactions . Takes 10 weeks of sales twice a day to sell your crop .

8 x 454 = 3362 grams . Selling 7 grams per deal = 518 transactions to move your 8 pounds .That`s a lot of time on the phone and interacting with consumers . Are you a grower or a shop keeper ?

Thanks for sharin

EB .

When I say 7 grams per deal that's not really the case. I'm using this strategy right now and there's still plenty of clients that want 1oz or more. I was surprised by this because I didn't expect to move anything over 14 grams per guy last week and one guy wanted 4 oz which was very surprising to me. That's not per week though and he said he wants 4 oz every 3-4 weeks. I'm doing $80 for 7, $150 for 14 and $250 for oz and I just got this started last week and I easily moved 1/2p in 2 days and I haven't even built my clients up yet. This week I have another 1/2 p in orders and it's from last weeks customers. I only did 4 hours of advertising to get these first clients. I didn't even advertise this week because most of the first crop is still drying. I'm easily going to do at least 4k a p minus expenses and there's no driver to pay. I'm really good at promotion and advertising though so I have an advantage. The middleman who wants p's won't even give me 28 a p for my highest quality. My competition has $150 oz all over the place but I'm still moving product for much more because it's much better quality and there's no middle man tax so it's still cheap for the retail customer. Just like the other guy said, it's a rush to the bottom and quality doest matter to the wholesaler. Not every guy is going to be 7 grams. It's a place to start at. When someone smokes, they usually have friends that eventually see the product. Now they want it and they are attached to your client and he is taking more now. In reality the guy on his game is always working toward other clients who will buy more than your lower guys. Eventually you eliminate the 7 gram guy once you find a replacement. It's a business and you have to treat it as one. This is why most home growers are going to fail. They might be good growers but most don't know how to promote and advertise. And lets face it, the average home grower isn't producing connoisseur grade to be able to hold a retail client base. Most of the best growers lack business skills and the best business guys lack growing skills.

 

[m4n]

Seen some BD outs for 1000 werent the best lookin or smellin but def could make money off if it...some greenhouse grapes,80% purp, def looked like indoor for 17

 

[hup234]

128 oz's over 12 weeks= 11 wk

 

[m4n]

Acquaintance of mine did this last year for a couple months...No business license or nothin...$50 8ths of cookies or og and wax for 40g...

The home growers who got their shit together and just poney up the $295 for a weedmaps listing and just pay themself 20 a pack because they make just as much on the back end. I know a guy in Sac that's just killing it right now doing this.

 

[localhero]

watch the whole, "in and out of your house all the time" thing with deliveries . neighbors are nosey like that.

 

[Elmer Bud]

When I say 7 grams per deal that's not really the case. I'm using this strategy right now and there's still plenty of clients that want 1oz or more. I was surprised by this because I didn't expect to move anything over 14 grams per guy last week and one guy wanted 4 oz which was very surprising to me. That's not per week though and he said he wants 4 oz every 3-4 weeks. I'm doing $80 for 7, $150 for 14 and $250 for oz and I just got this started last week and I easily moved 1/2p in 2 days and I haven't even built my clients up yet. This week I have another 1/2 p in orders and it's from last weeks customers. I only did 4 hours of advertising to get these first clients. I didn't even advertise this week because most of the first crop is still drying. I'm easily going to do at least 4k a p minus expenses and there's no driver to pay. I'm really good at promotion and advertising though so I have an advantage. The middleman who wants p's won't even give me 28 a p for my highest quality. My competition has $150 oz all over the place but I'm still moving product for much more because it's much better quality and there's no middle man tax so it's still cheap for the retail customer. Just like the other guy said, it's a rush to the bottom and quality doest matter to the wholesaler. Not every guy is going to be 7 grams. It's a place to start at. When someone smokes, they usually have friends that eventually see the product. Now they want it and they are attached to your client and he is taking more now. In reality the guy on his game is always working toward other clients who will buy more than your lower guys. Eventually you eliminate the 7 gram guy once you find a replacement. It's a business and you have to treat it as one. This is why most home growers are going to fail. They might be good growers but most don't know how to promote and advertise. And lets face it, the average home grower isn't producing connoisseur grade to be able to hold a retail client base. Most of the best growers lack business skills and the best business guys lack growing skills.

G`day Snype

Just wonderin ...
How much armed security guards cost per hour in Colorado ?

Because a lot of folks are gonna know about this guy who sells weed and has cash on him all day every day .
And you can`t exactly run to the law and tell how your retailing plan went wrong can you ?

That`s why growers use brokers / middle men . So they don`t meet the folks on the retail market . Safety and security has a premium .


Thanks for sharin

EB .

 

[Snype]

G`day Snype

Just wonderin ...
How much armed security guards cost per hour in Colorado ?

Because a lot of folks are gonna know about this guy who sells weed and has cash on him all day every day .
And you can`t exactly run to the law and tell your retailing plan went wrong can you ?

That`s why growers use brokers / middle men . So they don`t meet the folks on the retail market . Safety and security has a premium .


Thanks for sharin

EB .

Oh no! You might get robbed for an ounce and lose $200. Brokers rob people too and when they do, you lose much more. You don't need to bring any money with you to make plays. I got robbed for more money in my life from brokers than retail clients. Only way a small retail guy is going to rob you is if your trees aren't that good so they would have left you anyway. No one wants to throw away a connoisseur dealer for small money. That would be straight retarded. In very competitive markets, dealing with brokers eventually lead to bankruptcy or small time money.

 

[ApolloAK]

Doesn't even need to be that populated. College I went to had ~100,000 people in the town, when I finished there were maybe 3 delivery services in town, now there is at least 10.

 

[iTarzan]

Just because weed becomes legal doesn't mean everyone is going to come out of the woodwork and buy it openly. The home grower who has a clientele of people who have jobs that would not benefit from people thinking that they are pot smokers or are just nervous about people knowing they like to smoke pot should be able to make a go of it. Especially on the east coast where paranoia will run deep for quite a few more years.

You only need 10 or so trusted people that buy and ounce or two a month for personal consumption. The 45-70 years old teacher, manager, nurse, doctor, accountant, security person or lawyer might just not want to go to the dispensary or weed maps.

Ten people who buy 10-20 ounces a month and you can have a comfortable and safe life.

$250 for high test and $300 for the super high test. That is $2500 to $6,000 a month. It will never be recreational or probably even legal in my state but if it does I doubt I will see any change at all. My group knows me, they trust me and they like my product. I gain a few and lose a few here and there over time.

It is a great method especially if you have a regular job too.

I don't have the experience or desire to have huge warehouse grows. I respect those that do. I don't need millions of dollars. It is a lot of work and a lot of worry.

 

[Backyard Farmer]

The home grower peddling ounces needs to just cover their power bill and get a day job... If you're a GROWER you have a street team

 

[iTarzan]

The home grower can grow enough to be self employed and be comfortable.

If you have a street team you are a kingpin. You have more things to juggle. There is more risk.

I said I respect the big op growers. I meant it.

I respect the home growers too. I think most people just want to grow their own smoke. In the end if it ever became totally legal like tomatoes nobody will seek you out for your warehouse tomatoes. They will go into their Backyard or Farmers market.

 

[mojave green]

The home grower peddling ounces needs to just cover their power bill and get a day job... If you're a GROWER you have a street team

profit margin peddling ounces aint bad. even better peddling grams! much easier to get $300 to $400/oz peddling small time! day job can't hurt. specially if it's a good one.
street team?
you a grower or a gangster?

 

[Yes4Prop215]

just visited my friend in SF who runs a farmers market of some sorts, always has bulk of every possible grade of cannabis

sunset sherbet, super stinky, stink alone had me sold. usually this is 34-36 from cookiefam but this is from a commercial op that somehow obtained the cut and are undercutting


commercial sunset sherbert indoors for 28k in SF, indoor pretty nice quality stinks like a MFer… Nice quality OG for 23 for 10+ and 24-25 for singles. thin mint GSC for 28-3 that is pretty damn good. i personally got 27 for my animal cookies but it wasn't my best batch, lots of smaller nugs and it was a close homie so he got a deal. all my GG4 went for 25-27 and they are asking for more.

see alot of good open sun for 13-15 that damn near looks like indoor, including some OG for 15 that looks and stinks damn near like indoors so i bought the whole lot.

some typical open sun CA herb going for low teens, i think this was dream. (not from my gardens)

indoor growers (I'm one myself) are gonna have a hard time. just saw the power bill from my boys 5kw grow on standard PGE residential…over 900 fucking dollars. just ridiculous. my last bill for my commercial spot was 1300 and that was for running 20kw in veg. i have no idea how residential guys are gonna survive unless they are stealing power or still got the CARE rebate.

market still dominated by cheap outdoors, thats the entire market right now. cheap export has overtaken mexican brick pack….brokers are in a straight rat race right now its pretty insane. demand is still high as fuck because there are more brokers than growers right now, everybody and their mom is sending or driving to non med states and they aren't buying indoors at market value, they want cheap open sun. thank god i got into outdoor growing more seriously than indoors lol….

 

[iTarzan]

10-12 cents a kwh here. 1000w is 30 bucks a month.

 

[Yes4Prop215]

it peaks at 33cents here for tier 4 and up to 42 cents for peak hours (2pm-9pm)

 

[whadeezlrg]

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