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Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

Weird

3rd-Eye Jedi
Veteran
+




So if the growers aren't making money, and the weed shops aren't making money, then who/where is the money going? can anyone explain this to me?


government
No one really understand the relation of the black market to the legal market.

Traditionally pot has been high up on most states agricultural production.

This means pre legalization the monies from the black markets went directly to market participants (mid and lower class).

The middle and lower classes are already being burdened and the black market was the economic equalizer.

Legality allows government and corporate entities whom have the capacity to heavily tax and control these markets.

It was painfully apparent this would happen and I talked about it greatly 7-8 years ago and boy did I get flamed for it.

Ignorance is bliss until reality sets in.
 

krunchbubble

Dear Haters, I Have So Much More For You To Be Mad
Veteran
government
No one really understand the relation of the black market to the legal market.

Traditionally pot has been high up on most states agricultural production.

This means pre legalization the monies from the black markets went directly to market participants (mid and lower class).

The middle and lower classes are already being burdened and the black market was the economic equalizer.

Legality allows government and corporate entities whom have the capacity to heavily tax and control these markets.

It was painfully apparent this would happen and I talked about it greatly 7-8 years ago and boy did I get flamed for it.

Ignorance is bliss until reality sets in.



You sure did!

And I got shit riffed for NOT WANTING legalization...

And I STILL stand by what I say....
 

Allendawg

Member
Pacific Northwest is where the indoor scene began, they have good colleges, with professors/ex prof who've been growing for decades. These guys understand a terrible MJ business model when they see one, including a short growing season, hostile weather etc... In other words the legal market will never be successful there, unless they get the pros onboard & even then it's gonna be an uphill battle. Taxes are a terrible reason to legalize MJ it's gonna be a brutal lesson, possibly as brutal as cheap subsidized food. It's not around the corner, it's here now. We are paying the price for "bad science"
 

Yes4Prop215

Active member
Veteran
best news i heard out of WA all day!! they can't really compete with CO in terms of rec weed because no one from any of the surrounding states (OR, MO, ID) is driving to WA to buy 30 dollar grams. weed has always been dirt cheap in washington and oregon. its not like CO where you have a dozen high priced non med states a drive away.

but seriously, good to hear all those get rich quick VC backed fuckers aren't doing good, still hope for the little guys!

anyways, i have good homies up in seattle who have been growing commercial indoors for years and years way before i ever did. i talk to them frequently and the black market is still alive and thriving very well. prices are quite low, so most just pump mid grade indoor and it sells for anywhere from 14-18 a LB usually. i have a bunch of pics but they aren't worth posting lol, its really pretty mediocre. lazy trim, over fertilized, non brand name strains. but it doesn't matter since most of them pump every 2 months religiously and steal power, and even those who pay for power its only like 11-13cents a kWh apparently.
 

krunchbubble

Dear Haters, I Have So Much More For You To Be Mad
Veteran
and steal power, and even those who pay for power its only like 11-13cents a kWh apparently.

Oh man, what I would do to have energy that fucking cheap, im close to 4X that....

Id go fucking gay for that cheap of power....:tiphat:
 

Snype

Active member
Veteran
Oh man, what I would do to have energy that fucking cheap, im close to 4X that....

Id go fucking gay for that cheap of power....:tiphat:

7.5 cents a KW east coast. Come to ME for a couple years then you can go back if you want. It would be nice to have a good team out here.
 

redlaser

Active member
Veteran
YesForProp, are you on Pgand E? I thought I saw you post about your electrical bill somewhere and it was ridiculously low for a bunch of lights, around a thousand it seemed.
 

Allendawg

Member
Cali has a terrible power infrastructure we must import it thus raising cost = massive asian warehouse grows stealing power = $1200 lbs in 2013= tanking MJ cali prices=2013 warehouse Broad Mite infestations=bye bye asian indoor grows= hello outdoor Asians grows = green white boy out door + asian outdoor = $600 lbs = 2014 russet mite infestation = bye bye outdoor grows = prices up 2014 = breeder nematode infestations = 2015 broad mite infest + russet mite + nematode = bye bye uneducated cali MJ grower.
 

Daub Marley

Member
he who controls the method of CHEAPEST production wins, because they can take the price down as low as they possibly can to stifle other markets.
Nobody wins when there is a glut except the consumer. Even large players get hurt it's just a little less than their competitors. Its a war of attrition and the whole point of a price wars is to raise prices to make it up after your competitors are gone. That only works when there is a limited resource, but cannabis has almost limitless production potential with little demand. The point I'm making is that those who can market their stuff, keep it in line with demand, and generally keep high prices and margins will win. It really about branding.
honestly i think OD prices are going to continue to fall for the low end of the market
Personally i can make a pretty decent living growing outdoors even if the price drops to 500/lb.
hopefully the feds keep fucking up and trying to overtax herb making any legal ventures that much more difficult to compete with black market.
Man don't say that. The sky isn't falling. We have all been newbs at some point and didn't keep realistic expectations. Probably like 1/4 of these guys are in that same spot. They see $$$ and nothing else. I see failure and a great opportunity for great growers to rise to the top, and if you have realistic expectations (~$500/lbs) then you'll do just fine. Play it smart. Start small and build your business up. Every investor wants a good track record. The bigger grows will probably get hit very hard by inexperience and mother nature, or my drone carrying massive amounts of hemp pollen ;)
The amount of costs required to register a nutrient in all 50 states with the EPA and do all the marketing / packaging/ labeling work requires about 1,000,000 to get off the ground correctly...You need money already to start a nutrient company.....
How do you know that? I'm looking into this and honestly would like to know. Feel free to PM me.

Genetics still hold the key to everything
Great point! Exclusive distribution agreements will be the way it gets done. You'll never be able to get a hold of the best because its all getting locked up. Exclusive genetics is basically printing money.
 

EclipseFour20

aka "Doc"
Veteran
When demand is greater than supply, inefficient producers can successfully compete against "efficient producers" (lots of room for error).

BUT, when supply is greater than demand (like Washington state), inefficient producers can not successfully compete and make way for the efficient producers (one mistake can bankrupt you).

Moral of the story---the Natural Law always is in play: the strong survive and the weak die.

What to do? Become more efficient (do more with less) and seek affordable alternative$ (price for a pound of NPK? $2....$5....$20?).
 

redlaser

Active member
Veteran
Maybe I'm the last person to hear about this but recently I read somewhere about the peak and off peak choice with PG@E. Instead of getting gouged at 32 cents an hour for tier 4 and 26 cents at tier 2 you can get off peak at 12-13 cents an hour from 9pm-10am. With that plan comes part peak which is 14-15cents an hour from 10am-1pm and 7-9pm. I've only gotten one very small bill so it hasn't hit peak so what that costs I don't know yet. Fuck that bullshit tier system where they charge you dearly based on your volume alone.
 
http://abc11.com/society/too-much-p...f-legal-marijuana-in-washington-state/477468/

Growers in Washington are feeling the glut. There are multiple reasons for this but add outdoor crop pushing prices down with business models needing a higher price to be profitable indoors with consumers wanting cheap weed over top shelf(untaxed over taxed) with not enough store fronts open and you have a good example of how not to roll out legalization. You also have a reality check for nongrowers trying to run with the big dogs.

Produce more at a cheaper price and you will weather the storm and be the last man standing. Those of us that have expanded and reinvested in ourselves as the price has dropped are going to be able to weather the the next big price drop. And if you are not expecting another big price drop maybe you can get a job for one of us when it happens.

Prices have been steady for a few years or should I say only dropping slightly. Every year we get before the next 400 dollar drop is a blessing. Take advantage and prepare for the enevitable. I see top shelf greenhouse kushes or whatever the flavor of the month is going for 1000 max. When this happen is any bodies guess but if you're in denial you are in making the same mistake many of the last generation of growers made when they never thought it would go below 4000, then 3000, then 2000.
 
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