Wholesale pot prices plummet. Now there starting to get better

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

If every MJ grower in Cali votes no it won't legalize in 16!!! The real professionals could give a shit if it legalizes any time soon, 1st in market advantage & branding will zero impact on their success or failure! Furthermore; don't forget it's the stoners & misinformed businessmen who are pushing for legalization. Not the pros!!

i dont know about that. they are dilluted in the general populace to still not sway the district. with the exception of humboldt. is that how it works? or is it a statewide tally? either way the population of growers is pretty small in comparison to california as a whole. plus alot of growers see the sense in decriminalizing it at the street level. lets not forget that lots of folks still get arrested for petty weed offenses. especially poor folks who dont have adequate counsel in court. not nearly as many people are busted for growing as are for selling dime bags.
and strangely enough the consequences for those busts seem to be more severe and lasting.
money is a good thing except when you dont have access to it.

 

[Allendawg]

It's the number of voters that count! Most in Cali don't vote!

 

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

snype is right to an extent, the projections are a little lofty in my opinion and would require a flawless 2 per light 6 cycle year with no losses or down time but that is technically achievable but isnt something you can count on. shit happens. sometimes lots of it happens. and tbh those prices are out dated as of now or soon to come. we are about to see some really dramatically low unit prices in the coming 12-18 months. if you thought 1400 was tough to stomach for outdoor wait til blasting prices compete with the unit price neck and neck. prices will dictate that if it aint top notch its wax. period. you get a few hundred bucks less per pound technically but the difference is distributors actually buy it vs risking sitting on it til you can move it. 700 bought a lot of substandard pounds this last year. mostly for the oil producers.
i am just waiting to see giant larf grows in ware house outfitted with leds purely for cheap flower production for oil. itll happen if you can get a full larf canopy to yield more than it costs to produce with leds.

 

[Yes4Prop215]

the current oil market can teach growers a thing or two, watching big opec flood the market and actually having success shutting down budding oil ventures is pretty damn amazing on a global level, but take it to nationally and it still applies.

in a highly competitive market coupled with falling prices, the business plan is to prioritize profitability over growth. and at the end of the day, he who controls the method of CHEAPEST production wins, because they can take the price down as low as they possibly can to stifle other markets. and its already happening, sun grown is still the cheapest way to produce so those who are heavily invested in that will have a better chance than all the mega million dollar facilities with their huge monthly overheads. honestly i think OD prices are going to continue to fall for the low end of the market, sub1k machine trimmed commercial outdoor will go lower and lower bringing with it the higher end markets as well.

i see it in my own gardens, my OD was cheaper to setup, cheaper to run monthly and generated way more revenue than my ID. i just read several articles relating to the WA markets about how many of those first tier license holders who spent a fucking ton of money to build these massive facilities are facing problems due to supply glut and high taxation, so the "legalized" grows are having their own problems just like the black market guys.

such a tiring conversation really, and a depressing one when just a few years ago seemed like much better times. hopefully the feds keep fucking up and trying to overtax herb making any legal ventures that much more difficult to compete with black market.

 

[Backyard Farmer]

The amount of costs required to register a nutrient in all 50 states with the EPA and do all the marketing / packaging/ labeling work requires about 1,000,000 to get off the ground correctly...You need money already to start a nutrient company.....

 

[Shcrews]

i think 3 years IS optimistic to be honest. i dont think your rebuttal is so much about optimism as it is about gratitude and acceptance.
saying well be working for some large grow outfit and making hourly wages or barely middleclass salaries is an acceptable outcome of a life dedicated to a entrepreneurial career is good enough is kind of pessimistic if you ask me.

not to argue semantics here but you said that growers would be out of a job, however maybe the job is simply changing. Everyone has a different idea of what a fair wage is. Personally i can make a pretty decent living growing outdoors even if the price drops to 500/lb. And there are other ways to make lots of money and be your own boss. Like making/selling drugs

such a tiring conversation really, and a depressing one when just a few years ago seemed like much better times.

Yah its crazy how much difference a couple years can make.

I've said it before, if i got into this game 5 years earlier i would be retired by now. I don't know why there are still old-timers around, they must not know how to save money.

 

[EclipseFour20]

When Edison/Telsa introduced electric lights over 100 years ago...the candle-makers cried foul.

IMHO, life is "episodic", meaning the "episode we are in today" is a result of "yesterday's episode"; if one does not change or adapt they eventually will become an extinct dinosaur (candle-maker).

This industry is not what it was 5+ years ago (days of $5k packs) and in 5 years or so from now...."today's game" will be "old school".

 

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

not to argue semantics here but you said that growers would be out of a job, however maybe the job is simply changing. Everyone has a different idea of what a fair wage is. Personally i can make a pretty decent living growing outdoors even if the price drops to 500/lb. And there are other ways to make lots of money and be your own boss. Like making/selling drugs


Yah its crazy how much difference a couple years can make.

I've said it before, if i got into this game 5 years earlier i would be retired by now. I don't know why there are still old-timers around, they must not know how to save money.

the old timers who stay in the game may be able to retire. theyll stick it out as long as theyre able and it is more lucrative to being the greater at walmart.

or they cant save money, lol. its true, ive always been baffled by folks more than a few years into growing 6 figures worth of herb a year not being flush with cash.

mind boggling. i got my start near island mountain in 2005. with zero skills outside of just normal gardening and street savvy i was able to lay down the building blocks of a career and invest in the next grow that ultimately funded my first property and again funded my next grow all the way through. being cash positive in this game is critical. set aside your next years exspenses on top of savings, life style cash, and other financial obligations at the same time cultivating credit and maintaining it.
credit can save your ass or elevate your career above what you can cash out in one sitting thereby raising your income many fold i.e. buying a farm, shop, equipment etc.

what i was saying before about having not made a starting chunk in this game not being possible now was based on that. in 2005 you could go from broke to stoked in one season if you had discipline and a plan. now you would have to have luck prudent financial judgement as well as skill to get there. prior to 2009 you didnt need any of those things, just a set of balls or a good amount of that lucrative combination of bad judgement and good luck.
fear was unnecessary by the time i got into it. eradication efforts had all but ceased and were no longer focusing on small grows (less than a thousand plants) but people and prices and hadnt caught on quite yet. your typical sohum family farm was 30 well covered plants. we immediately recognized that busts were very rare amongst the population and 30 plants was the same as a hundred as far as the camp choppers were concerned. or werent as it were. there was no reason not to blow it out while the prices were still high and the consequences low and few, and we did. i coulda retired but i wanted a bunch of stuff that only money can buy, home, family debts paid, friends college funds, kids etc. so i moved away and started an indoor and moved packs as a job for a few years as the price on the west coast dropped a year or two before the east coast. it was a lucrative price gap. again it was almost impossible to fail if you were creative and smart. like shooting puppies in a barrel.
you can make money in this game no matter what is happening in the market but you have to keep your ears to the ground and be moving on changes as they happen versus reacting when you see everyone else reacting. by that point youre too late.
i like the analogy of riding the wave or going over the falls.
its totally true.
its getting harder, real actual business people whove done this in a number of different markets and economies are rushing in with teams of consultants, funding, market research, and buses full of out of work skilled ganja growers and horticulturists in their quiver. not to mention cheap labor and hungry investors.
its a narrower path to success than it was when i got into it. although its less lucrative its a safer and more well defined path.

 

[Storm Shadow]

Genetics still hold the key to everything.... The no name strains that are true 1 hitters... I would pay a hefty price tag to puff on some dank that keeps me lit for more than 45 min...

Indiana Jones status... Still lot of INSANE undiscovered Cannabis genetics in the OLD WORLD aka Silk Road...

How many Elites are yet to be discovered and brought to the game... Of course prices suck when everyone grows the same thing just to a different degree of quality....

Im about to germ some True F1 genetics... Pure Landrace Beast Mode Iranian Male x Tahoe OG ...

If I find something that's next level... I would just keep it in the inner circle ...not tell anyone what it is...and TAX .. You can charge a premium when your the ONLY ONE with the genetics ... food for thought

 

[hup234]

This...along with a law and order type in the wh like Romney or some other dusche

 

[whadeezlrg]

a well known extract artist in the LA area just paid $200 a zip all the way up for some very nice SSH to run through tubes(la cup is coming up). superior quality holds a market share. although it may be more of a niche thing it still represents a percentage of the whole market.

the things I've heard of ca's potential 2016 legalization bill includes a 3 year period where only current CA residents can get licensing, licensing is also supposedly going to be "affordable" to people that already have roots in the industry(not requiring a half mil in loose capital/ liquid assets like CO)...I think that's realistically the best that we can hope for. it's obvious that although licensing may be affordable, setting up a sizable operation may require some to look for investors etc. to be competitive....shit I'd be happy owning 51% of Deez Trees Farms, if that's what it took.

 

[Yes4Prop215]

If you really want to make money in this game, start a nutrient company.

im not confident on the nutrient market, its a huge hit or miss there are plenty of companies that are hot one year and nonexistent the next…aptus anybody?


also, as prices crash for home growers they will look to cut costs and once most realize you dont need all these fancy bottles who's gonna buy them. also all the future legalized companies will be running custom mixes from powder and saving 75% off the cost of bottled nutes. and no bottled nutes will be used in mass AG outdoor farming.

Deez Trees farms lets get it going!

 

[whadeezlrg]

Deez Trees farms lets get it going!

you know this mang!

I agree with the nutes...bottled nutes will be phased out relatively quickly in a legal market, I would think that in the infancy of things bottled nutes may be used more often because of the need to immediately get up and running and the advantage of providing a marketable product quickly...after 3 years all bottled nutes will be completely replaced with salts.

huge environmentally controlled greenhouses with supplemental lighting will be the norm. I'm all about a coco GH...I saw a few in Honduras last year that were used for food production using coco coir that they processed on the island...I think that implementing indoor techniques into a controlled GH inevitably would lend to an indoor quality product with environmentally sustainable/high efficiency/lower overhead platform.

ultimately at this point, I'm focused on stacking up cups to build up a resume for a post legal market. worst case scenario I get a job with one of the corporate grows that provides a solid salary(would have to be 6 figures even if on the lower end), a decent amount of vacation time, a small % of annual production as a 'bonus' of sorts, health benefits, a retirement plan, etc. I'm not completely opposed to normalcy...not to say I don't like how things are now...but I would love a shot at growing thousands of plants without the risk of being stripped away from my family, and that's not in the cards in the current state of legality.

you coming down to the la cup prop?

 

[Allendawg]

Current nutrient cos have no future no chance any experienced farmer will use any of these nutes!

 

[whadeezlrg]

I think some additives may still have a market. I know if I was running an indoor/GH acre I'd still use yellow bottle final lol

 

[xxxstr8edgexxx]

I think some additives may still have a market. I know if I was running an indoor/GH acre I'd still use yellow bottle final lol

no offense intended as you are obviously a serious and talented grower but for the sake of argument, why would you use it. whats in it and why wouldnt you just make a barrel of it in a hours time and call it a year. youd save a ton of money. i mean if you were limited in space knowkedge and access to a good agronimy nerd and prices were a couple k over production costs i could see it. but in a year these companies are going to see the bulk of cannabis is going to be grown by people who wouldnt dream, of buying that stuff. i think a home hobbyist that only has a few lights might be tempted but it will be because they like the results and the bottom line isnt that big a deal to them. if you can cut 75% production costs and get better results, why would a serious grower at production scale use those products. small growers i totally understand the convenience factor but at a certain scale its just unjustifiable. like if you go through five gallons a week at finish it would seem like youd just gravitate to making it yourself.
that stuff is for people who dont understand plants and still want to grow herb and make enough money to justify it.
that era has passed. we are seeing the last of the bottled nute commercial growers concede that they should buy blended salts from a feed store. i have 5 pitchers of salt on my shelf. jacks 5-12-26, cal/nit, epsom, and chitosan. soon adding two more. agrisil, and PeK acid. i could see buying a bag of monopotassium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate if you like boosters like moab or hydroplex. what else would i need? maybe some triacontanol or someting maybe.

 

[Elmer Bud]

8 years ago I could make 500k a year with 10 lights. Now it takes 20 lights on the east coast. Still plenty of money to be made if you have the drive. Time to start really saving for the end though. I figure I got at least 5 years left. You west coast guys probably need 40 lights to make 500k a year.

G`day Snype

Hypothetically maybe ...
In reality I highly doubt it .
I have followed your logs .

Thanks for sharin

EB .

 

[Elmer Bud]

Genetics still hold the key to everything.... The no name strains that are true 1 hitters... I would pay a hefty price tag to puff on some dank that keeps me lit for more than 45 min...

Indiana Jones status... Still lot of INSANE undiscovered Cannabis genetics in the OLD WORLD aka Silk Road...

How many Elites are yet to be discovered and brought to the game... Of course prices suck when everyone grows the same thing just to a different degree of quality....

Im about to germ some True F1 genetics... Pure Landrace Beast Mode Iranian Male x Tahoe OG ...

If I find something that's next level... I would just keep it in the inner circle ...not tell anyone what it is...and TAX .. You can charge a premium when your the ONLY ONE with the genetics ... food for thought

G`day Stormie

So much mileage out of a batch of seeds .
If the shit is Sooo good why do you keep crossing it to OG ?

And why do you keep showing it off and saying: No its not to be shared .

You have been playing with that strain a few years now .If its so damn good . Interesting it hasn`t over taken the market ?

Does it help you sleep more soundly at night with the knowledge you are the Man with the Dervish Bud ?

Thanks for sharin

EB .

 

[whadeezlrg]

no offense intended as you are obviously a serious and talented grower but for the sake of argument, why would you use it. whats in it and why wouldnt you just make a barrel of it in a hours time and call it a year. youd save a ton of money. i mean if you were limited in space knowkedge and access to a good agronimy nerd and prices were a couple k over production costs i could see it. but in a year these companies are going to see the bulk of cannabis is going to be grown by people who wouldnt dream, of buying that stuff. i think a home hobbyist that only has a few lights might be tempted but it will be because they like the results and the bottom line isnt that big a deal to them. if you can cut 75% production costs and get better results, why would a serious grower at production scale use those products. small growers i totally understand the convenience factor but at a certain scale its just unjustifiable. like if you go through five gallons a week at finish it would seem like youd just gravitate to making it yourself.
that stuff is for people who dont understand plants and still want to grow herb and make enough money to justify it.
that era has passed. we are seeing the last of the bottled nute commercial growers concede that they should buy blended salts from a feed store. i have 5 pitchers of salt on my shelf. jacks 5-12-26, cal/nit, epsom, and chitosan. soon adding two more. agrisil, and PeK acid. i could see buying a bag of monopotassium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate if you like boosters like moab or hydroplex. what else would i need? maybe some triacontanol or someting maybe.

Well, mainly because the stuff makes a huge difference in finished quality. The amount that is used is the equivalent of about $8 per light per cycle even buying the smaller bottles, I imagine that it would cost significantly less when purchased by the 100's of gallons.

I would think in order to fully replicate it's results you would need to have it analyzed and reproduced exactly. which would carry a significant cost and also take time. I'm all for this route if it is in fact cost effective over a given period of time. I know that one of the main things in the final is triacontanol, but beyond that I don't have much of a clue.

it's used @ 3.8ml/gal for 14 days so each light would use 266ml per run assuming you're feeding 5gal per light per day(which in my experience is more than necessary). so yeah looking at 70gal for one run @ 1000kw @ a retail price of around $100/gal...definitely enough to be using something produced in house if possible...but if it in house production is not feasible I personally wouldn't hesitate to spend the 7k on the stuff...but it's just a product that I swear by. also fwiw I wouldn't consider one product accounting for 75% of overhead unless that product is power.


I'll end with this- try it and get back to me

 

[Storm Shadow]

Elmer... it's more like being in the possession of Jack and Beanstalk seeds...

GROWMORE #1 ...quit over paying for NPK