The Oregon Weed Thread -Grows, News and Laws and Whatever

[Robrites]

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE REGION. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER OR EVEN HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ROUND
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE GRANDE
RONDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS.

 

[Robrites]

OLCC Approves More than 760 Recreational Marijuana Licenses

OLCC Approves More than 760 Recreational Marijuana Licenses

More than 9,000 Marijuana Worker Permits Approved

Portland, Oregon – The Oregon Liquor Control Commission has approved 762 recreational marijuana licenses through the first week of January 2017, fulfilling the commitment to start-up a regulated system by the end of 2016. The OLCC began accepting recreational marijuana license applications in January 2016 and issued the first licenses in May 2016.

“Our staff has worked nonstop and with determination to get this industry licensed,” said Steve Marks, Executive Director of the OLCC. “Working after hours, working weekends, traveling long distances, this team has been flexible in getting this industry licensed, without compromising the trust placed in us to protect the public.”

During the weeks leading up to the December 31st end of “early start” sales at Oregon Health Authority registered dispensaries, the OLCC received a surge in applications, especially for retail recreational marijuana licenses. In December alone the OLCC received an additional 175 applications for recreational marijuana licenses bringing the total to 1,907 applications received during 2016. Before licensing began the OLCC projected it would receive between 800 and 1200 applications during the first year of licensing.

The OLCC has also approved 9,041 Marijuana Worker Permits out of 10,700 permit applications submitted to the agency.

“The staff has done a wonderful job getting the industry stood up during the last year, but we still have a lot of work to do in terms of continuing to license the industry,” said Will Higlin, OLCC Senior Director of Licensing and Compliance. “In addition we will begin to shift resources to focus on industry compliance to ensure public safety.”

The OLCC will step up its compliance work across all license categories. As an example when inspectors visit licensed premises they will be checking to make sure employees have in their possession, or can provide proof of having applied for an OLCC marijuana worker permit. All individuals employed by OLCC recreational marijuana licensees are required to obtain a worker permit, but it is the responsibility of a licensee, not an employee, that the employees working for the licensee have been issued a permit.
http://www.marijuana.oregon.gov/

 

[Robrites]

More than 9,000 Marijuana Worker Permits Approved

Portland, Oregon – The Oregon Liquor Control Commission has approved 762 recreational marijuana licenses through the first week of January 2017, fulfilling the commitment to start-up a regulated system by the end of 2016. The OLCC began accepting recreational marijuana license applications in January 2016 and issued the first licenses in May 2016.

“Our staff has worked nonstop and with determination to get this industry licensed,” said Steve Marks, Executive Director of the OLCC. “Working after hours, working weekends, traveling long distances, this team has been flexible in getting this industry licensed, without compromising the trust placed in us to protect the public.”

During the weeks leading up to the December 31st end of “early start” sales at Oregon Health Authority registered dispensaries, the OLCC received a surge in applications, especially for retail recreational marijuana licenses. In December alone the OLCC received an additional 175 applications for recreational marijuana licenses bringing the total to 1,907 applications received during 2016. Before licensing began the OLCC projected it would receive between 800 and 1200 applications during the first year of licensing.

The OLCC has also approved 9,041 Marijuana Worker Permits out of 10,700 permit applications submitted to the agency.

“The staff has done a wonderful job getting the industry stood up during the last year, but we still have a lot of work to do in terms of continuing to license the industry,” said Will Higlin, OLCC Senior Director of Licensing and Compliance. “In addition we will begin to shift resources to focus on industry compliance to ensure public safety.”

The OLCC will step up its compliance work across all license categories. As an example when inspectors visit licensed premises they will be checking to make sure employees have in their possession, or can provide proof of having applied for an OLCC marijuana worker permit. All individuals employed by OLCC recreational marijuana licensees are required to obtain a worker permit, but it is the responsibility of a licensee, not an employee, that the employees working for the licensee have been issued a permit.
http://www.marijuana.oregon.gov/

Looks like only the idiots went legal.....

 

[Sluicebox]

Pretty sure there is still a long wait to grow for patients if you're new to the State. Not sure though as shit changes every month. You can however get a rec license like that massive amount of other transplants to the State. Who knows you may be one of the few who do well with it.

Btw most patients here expect you to cover all costs including fees and Dr. Visits. Cover all of your own expenses as well. The State wants you to cough up $200 per patient because growers are so rich don't you know. Oh I almost forgot, you will not find any outs for your efforts as Med has been shut out of the game completely. Cheers.""

"nattering nabobs of negativity?" Really?

 

[Aota1]

Should get interesting - the shoP is booming!

 

[socioecologist]

nattering nabobs of negativity

Ha ha...guilty on that account I suppose, but a rational look at the existing Oregon cannabis market doesn't paint a real rosy picture for small producers looking to grow a few plants. If the OP had taken a look at the data like the successful professionals who are now operating in this sector, they would have seen the writing on the wall and looked to move elsewhere.

Like most of you, many of my friends are also in the industry; the ones who are doing really well have multiple OLCC farms (to spread risk) and are 100% vertically integrated. Our single-site farm buddies who only sell flowers are sitting on a lot of inventory and making alternative occupational arrangements. Non-OLCC medical grows will be gone by this time next year. As (I and others) predicted, the consolidation process that governs this particular stage of oligopoly capitalism is exerting its inexorable logic on the newly formalized cannabis sector.

Please note that the data and trajectory of our industry makes me heart-sick, even if it is predictable. I noted this at the end of my testimony two years ago while the legislature was beginning their market intervention process.

 

[Big Sur]

Pretty sure there is still a long wait to grow for patients if you're new to the State. Not sure though as shit changes every month. You can however get a rec license like that massive amount of other transplants to the State. Who knows you may be one of the few who do well with it.

Btw most patients here expect you to cover all costs including fees and Dr. Visits. Cover all of your own expenses as well. The State wants you to cough up $200 per patient because growers are so rich don't you know. Oh I almost forgot, you will not find any outs for your efforts as Med has been shut out of the game completely. Cheers.""

"nattering nabobs of negativity?" Really?

Well, anyone can grow 4 plants here per address. No permit required, no grow card required, no waiting required, no nothing required. They can also just buy rec weed and forego the OMMP process. For comparison, California completely ditched the medical program and everything is being rolled under rec laws there now (except medical card holders can get rec weed there sales tax free). In Oregon, once anyone applies for an OMMP card, the OHA will give them a receipt that they can use to buy medical MJ at dispensaries tax-free. There is no residency time requirement for people moving to Oregon to get an OMMP card. All they have to do is live here. Wait times for an OMMP card vary, but they are supposed to be able to get them in 30 days after the application is submitted. Realistically it takes more like 2-3 months with the case load and slow process of the state government.

There is a residency requirement of 2 years in Oregon for growing OMMP MJ for another person in Oregon though. There is also the $200 annual fee requirement to grow for someone else, but that also allows you to sell excess inventory and clones to processors and dispensaries. Note that the grower fee is reduced to $50 if you are on the Oregon Health Plan, and $20 if you are a veteran (same cost and discount as an OMMP card). They also changed the limits of OMMP cards that you can have in July: it is now only 2 cards (12 mature plants) inside city limits/inside residential zoning, and 8 cards outside city residential zoning.

Dunno where you are that patients expect growers to pay for doctor bills and permits and fees. All the fees for the people that I grew for were all paid for by them, including the added grower fees that I had to pay. They only wanted a set amount of buds, and they let me keep the rest. BTW: like grower fees, patient OMMP card fees are reduced to $50 (instead of $200) if they are on the Oregon Health Plan/Medicaid, and it is only $20 a year if they are a veteran. The big issue as a medical grower for a dispensary/processor now is that you are required to meet the new testing, labeling and packaging requirements that were implemented at the beginning of the year. That can rack up the costs and time. You also have to be 21 or older to grow MJ for anyone else now, and if you are growing more than 12 plants the OHA will likely inspect your grow operation. Also as a grower for anyone else, you must also get a background check and send in monthly reports to the OHA. You do not need to do any of this crap if you are just for growing OMMP for yourself though.

As others have said above, OMMP is pretty much dead. I do not grow OMMP any more. Fuck all the legal BS and hoops. I can pass a background check and I live outside the city zoning, and I could grow 8 OMMP cards here and not have to deal with the rec licensing and permit crap. But it is still not going to happen.

 

[Aota1]

Now that we're on the olcc dispensary list I'm getting 5-10 calls a day from licensed rec producers (there's a few hundred). I'm seeing enormous outdoor ops and i think a lot of these guys are going to be hard pressed to move 100+ pounds of mediocre outdoor. Nice indoor and greenhouse stands a much better shot. What can I do with 11% sour diesel?

 

[PDX Dopesmoker]

Ha ha...guilty on that account I suppose, but a rational look at the existing Oregon cannabis market doesn't paint a real rosy picture for small producers looking to grow a few plants. If the OP had taken a look at the data like the successful professionals who are now operating in this sector, they would have seen the writing on the wall and looked to move elsewhere.

Like most of you, many of my friends are also in the industry; the ones who are doing really well have multiple OLCC farms (to spread risk) and are 100% vertically integrated. Our single-site farm buddies who only sell flowers are sitting on a lot of inventory and making alternative occupational arrangements. Non-OLCC medical grows will be gone by this time next year. As (I and others) predicted, the consolidation process that governs this particular stage of oligopoly capitalism is exerting its inexorable logic on the newly formalized cannabis sector.

Please note that the data and trajectory of our industry makes me heart-sick, even if it is predictable. I noted this at the end of my testimony two years ago while the legislature was beginning their market intervention process.

You and your friends in the industry are a small fraction of Oregon's potheads, the .gov info Robrites just posted for us says that theres just a pinch over 9000 of you & of those 9000, a very small fraction are you and your fellow professionals, most of the 9000 are low hourly wage workers. Your own research indicates that the population of consumers is over half a million in Oregon, you professionals are about 0.2% of the population, managing the industry for the benefit of the industrialists doesn't entirely make sense.
When we legalized recreational use and possession the reasoning wasn't to set up an industry for the entertainment of LARPing Railroad Tycoon enthusiasts, it was to take the heat off of people who had no reason to have it on them in the first place. Using some long term doom scenario to restrict competition in the here & now only makes sense if you're someone who is already established and wants to max out their profits and market share and are willing to neglect that home growing, the black market and Main Street Marijuana will all serve as a relief valve if prices are too stiff and that will place the heat back on a lot of the people who it was supposed to be off of.

 

[socioecologist]

You and your friends in the industry are a small fraction of Oregon's potheads, the .gov info Robrites just posted for us says that theres just a pinch over 9000 of you & of those 9000, a very small fraction are you and your fellow professionals, most of the 9000 are low hourly wage workers. Your own research indicates that the population of consumers is over half a million in Oregon, you professionals are about 0.2% of the population, managing the industry for the benefit of the industrialists doesn't entirely make sense.
When we legalized recreational use and possession the reasoning wasn't to set up an industry for the entertainment of LARPing Railroad Tycoon enthusiasts, it was to take the heat off of people who had no reason to have it on them in the first place. Using some long term doom scenario to restrict competition in the here & now only makes sense if you're someone who is already established and wants to max out their profits and market share and are willing to neglect that home growing, the black market and Main Street Marijuana will all serve as a relief valve if prices are too stiff and that will place the heat back on a lot of the people who it was supposed to be off of.

I don't know any railroad tycoons or their enthusiasts. FWIW, I'm not part of the OLCC licensed system either; we only do hemp and have tried to bring as many farmers with us as we can since interstate hemp commerce is legal--as I alluded to in my testimony, Oregon's cannabis economy has always been export-oriented. The new legal system brought about tracking to prevent "leakage" into other states (OLCC and OHA); without that leakage, tens of thousands of small family farms (and their sizeable aggregate contribution to local economies) disappear. This has been my primary concern for the last 5 years. In my opinion, the only way for us to bridge the gap between state-only legalization and full federal legalization--legally--and still maintain Oregon's unique role as a major producer / exporter is to dominate industrial hemp production (i.e. all non-THC cannabinoids). Not only does it prep us all for the agronomic scale required in national-level cannabis farming, it gets us ready for the prices ($20 per pound).

It's kind of like climate change: I don't like that it is happening, but I don't suggest that people bury their heads. We confront a negative reality by protecting ourselves in collaboration with other like-minded people, while simultaneously creating the conditions for better times ahead.

From a snapple bottle I saw a couple years ago:

"Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree."
Martin Luther

 

[Big Sur]

Well, looking at the weather map, Oregon is not the only place getting hammered today. Everything in California north of SLO is under some type of warning or watch, mainly for flooding and high winds. There is another pineapple express (the weather event, not the weed strain) making a moisture deposit there now.

From drought to floods... typical in California. The horizontal snow has stopped here for the time being. The ice show is due to arrive here later tonight.

 

[Big Sur]

Now that we're on the olcc dispensary list I'm getting 5-10 calls a day from licensed rec producers (there's a few hundred). I'm seeing enormous outdoor ops and i think a lot of these guys are going to be hard pressed to move 100+ pounds of mediocre outdoor. Nice indoor and greenhouse stands a much better shot. What can I do with 11% sour diesel?

Seems that low % supply is getting push back from processors because of the bottleneck with testing.

I am happy to smoke 11% weed myself. Pay and charge half price and move a lot of volume! Be the WalMart of weed outlets. There is a market for it.

 

[Dr.King]

Seems that low % supply is getting push back from processors because of the bottleneck with testing.

I am happy to smoke 11% weed myself. Pay and charge half price and move a lot of volume! Be the WalMart of weed outlets. There is a market for it.

I would actually have to try to grow my weed to only be 11% that's sad. I know people are looking for a MalMart type of course you got that right man.

 

[Aota1]

Seems that low % supply is getting push back from processors because of the bottleneck with testing.

I am happy to smoke 11% weed myself. Pay and charge half price and move a lot of volume! Be the WalMart of weed outlets. There is a market for it.

I agree to a point. The last other dispensary i went to (i try to visit at least one or two other shops every few weeks for many reasons) i chose 3 from sight and smell and one of them ended up being 12%. I am inundated with numbers now and the customers are very aware of how high or low. We try hard to steer them to the mindset of taking the whole package in and let them know a higher percentage doesn't equate to a stronger effect always. There's a time, especially daytime, for less potent herb. There's a spot nearby that is the 'walmart of Oregon weed' and provide all of their own outdoor, which is super subpar but super cheap. They have a number of shops around the state. We used to sell the $5-6 grams but that brings with it all your "cheapest gram customers" who aren't the best to deal with and don't spend much in the grand scheme of things. We continued to see sales rise after we cut that low price tier out. I, by no means, care about someone's spending power but I didn't dig the lame attitudes of a lot of "what's your cheapest gram" crowd.

 

[Aota1]

There's a lot of above average outdoor and gh available right now for super low. I'm definitely getting some this week. Already have some incredibly nice outs on the shelf

 

[Aota1]

We're just getting started though. Things are going to fluctuate like crazy.

 

[PDX Dopesmoker]

I don't know any railroad tycoons or their enthusiasts. FWIW, I'm not part of the OLCC licensed system either; we only do hemp and have tried to bring as many farmers with us as we can since interstate hemp commerce is legal--as I alluded to in my testimony, Oregon's cannabis economy has always been export-oriented. The new legal system brought about tracking to prevent "leakage" into other states (OLCC and OHA); without that leakage, tens of thousands of small family farms (and their sizeable aggregate contribution to local economies) disappear. This has been my primary concern for the last 5 years. In my opinion, the only way for us to bridge the gap between state-only legalization and full federal legalization--legally--and still maintain Oregon's unique role as a major producer / exporter is to dominate industrial hemp production (i.e. all non-THC cannabinoids). Not only does it prep us all for the agronomic scale required in national-level cannabis farming, it gets us ready for the prices ($20 per pound).

It's kind of like climate change: I don't like that it is happening, but I don't suggest that people bury their heads. We confront a negative reality by protecting ourselves in collaboration with other like-minded people, while simultaneously creating the conditions for better times ahead.

From a snapple bottle I saw a couple years ago:

"Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree."
Martin Luther

I agree that the hemp market is looks like a potential goldmine in many different ways, but I read your academic work and where it differs from the climate scientists' in my opinion is that they have very small error bars with very large numbers of samples whereas in your case it seems to be the opposite. The $177 average ounce with the $91 sigma just says that there is a 32% probability that the real average price of an ounce is either below $86 or over $268. I can only guess that the 6.75 ounce number was similarly accurate, but I can guarantee you that you're not off by 2 sigma on the low end of the price. Publishing that information as legitimate research is one thing, its a valuable and interesting, but using it as the basis of potential policy making is kinda gambling. Just some quick arithmetic places your range of estimated values for the overall consumer market as being between $0.15 billion and $1.75 billion, thats a very large range to be basing decision making on.
We got into this discussion over Mr. Cali's inquiry about moving here to grow weed, you were saying we have too many already based on your research and I was more welcoming. If he decides to believe your numbers or ignore them seems to be the same level of gambling to me.

As for Snapple, they were Rush Limbaugh's top radio sponsor back in the late 1980s before anyone had ever heard of him. Without Snapple, his brand of conservatism - which enables willful ignorance with respect to the climate numbers - might have died out a long time ago. In a few decades when your hemp farm is a dust bowl, Snapple will be partly to blame and yet you in your blissful ignorance march on self assuredly sipping fruity beverages and thinking that there are too many people growing pot in Oregon.

 

[socioecologist]

I read your academic work and where it differs from the climate scientists' in my opinion is that they have very small error bars with very large numbers of samples whereas in your case it seems to be the opposite. The $177 average ounce with the $91 sigma just says that there is a 32% probability that the real average price of an ounce is either below $86 or over $268. I can only guess that the 6.75 ounce number was similarly accurate, but I can guarantee you that you're not off by 2 sigma on the low end of the price.[

Be careful to not shoot the messenger when there is confusion about the message.

There are limitations in the generalizability of findings due to the small sample size, but they are less important than other "small n" studies because I used a network chain referral sampling procedure, which allows for small n representative studies of targeted hidden population (Respondent Driven Sampling). BOTEC's much larger non-random survey in WA produced similar results. Total consumption data coming out of WA, CO, and now Oregon are in line with my data. The large standard deviation on price paid per ounce in my study is because a sizable minority paid nothing (remember, this was 2012 and before dispensaries were legal). The structure of production was (in my opinion) the most important contribution, as it shows that Oregon's pre-legalization cannabis economy had characteristics of a robust network. I mention this in the abstract:

"Most users purchase the drug from friends and nearly one third of respondents indicate that they sell marijuana in small quantities. Growers tend to sell inauspicious quantities to friends and relatives, and rarely earn more than $10,000 annually from their sales. The composition of distribution networks suggests that the informal marijuana economy is a “robust network,” particularly in states that allow personal medical production. This finding also suggests that legalization will likely produce a net increase in economic inequality, particularly affecting parts of Oregon associated with the State of Jefferson, by shutting out smaller producers."

Publishing that information as legitimate research is one thing, its a valuable and interesting, but using it as the basis of potential policy making is kinda gambling.

Rather than focusing on specific numbers, most policy makers are interested in the broader implications, such as: (1) taxes must be low to compete with preexisting informal markets, (2) barriers to entry for producers must be minimal, (3) formalization will lead to economic inequality (regardless of entry barriers) via larger scale production and consolidation, and (4) prohibition made most simple users into felons just by the informal nature of cannabis distribution. Don't miss the forest (larger social implications) for an insignificant tree (standard deviation of price) on this one. None of those price estimates are important anymore anyway, as they are nearly 5 years old now.

We got into this discussion over Mr. Cali's inquiry about moving here to grow weed, you were saying we have too many already based on your research and I was more welcoming. If he decides to believe your numbers or ignore them seems to be the same level of gambling to me.

It's not necessarily about the number of growers, it is about the structure and composition of production today. The question was about trying to recruit medical patients so the poster could start producing more cannabis than regular people are allowed (4 plants); unless he is fully employed in another occupation, it means he's moving here to make money growing pot. The scale-up in average farm size and tighter vertical integration brought about by OLCC makes it very difficult for small farmers to compete in retail shops, which leaves the disappearing medical dispensaries, informal sales to friends and family (the old structure), or exporting out of state (with each of those options listed in order of legality). If the poster comes here and sets up a small medical grow and sells to dispensaries (while they still exist) and other Oregon residents, he will be contributing to oversupply and competing against a lot of the growers in this thread. Oregon has a finite cannabis demand and it’s pretty small compared to what we produce. Do you have skin in the game? Family to support? Care about small craft farms who have been doing their thing for 40 years, but are getting squeezed out? All of those change affect point of view and advice to others.

As for Snapple, they were Rush Limbaugh's top radio sponsor back in the late 1980s before anyone had ever heard of him. Without Snapple, his brand of conservatism - which enables willful ignorance with respect to the climate numbers - might have died out a long time ago. In a few decades when your hemp farm is a dust bowl, Snapple will be partly to blame and yet you in your blissful ignorance march on self assuredly sipping fruity beverages and thinking that there are too many people growing pot in Oregon.

I was wrong; it was Honest Tea, not Snapple. I live in the Willamette Valley dude, pretty sure it will be a mud pit before a dust bowl. I wish everybody in Oregon grew their own; that's been my life work.

 

[socioecologist]

Oregon Cannabis Farm Size 2014-2016

Oregon Cannabis Farm Size 2014-2016

Until legalization, Oregon's cannabis economy followed a power law. There's a lot of debate as to what that means, but most agree that it functions as a measure of relative stability within a dynamic system. The closer actual data fit to a power law distribution, the greater stability and resilience you have to external shocks.

The data on Oregon cannabis farm size is sparse, so we have to estimate actual scale using an external metric--I have used # of MMJ cards per grow site for the last decade and it has caught on with in-state analysts, for better or worse. Incorporating OLCC grows who are regulated by canopy size instead of plant count into this data is obviously problematic; to do so, I have to make assumptions. The main assumption is that a 40k sq. ft. rec canopy is equivalent to a 66 medical card grow (10'x10' spacing on plants @ 396 flowering plants) and that each OLCC grow site is independently owned (obviously not the case). That's obviously up for debate (and I'd be happy to re-run the analysis with different assumptions if anyone has suggestions). That said, here's the distributions of grow sites in the state over the past couple years based on size:

December 2014 Power Law Chart

October 2015 Power Law Chart

October 2016 Power Law Chart with Approved OLLC Grows

October 2016 Power Law Chart with Pending and Approved OLLC Grows

The deviation away from power law equilibrium suggests a bubble in production that can only be remediated via consolidation or smaller farm sizes. As noted, the analysis is sensitive to assumptions and I'm waiting on the OLCC to release data on farm ownership. If this were an accurate portrayal of Oregon's cannabis market size, you could expect to see many, many businesses who are on the right or left side of that dotted line to fade away soon.

 

[Sluicebox]

Smaller farm sizes may help save the small guy. 1200-2400 ft/sq indoor flowering should have been the limit for all tiers. Then you'd have a much more diverse population of grows competing with each other, much like Micro Breweries or Wineries. The current model is terrible for the small guy. The market would likely remain flooded either way.

Curious how the Tax turns out when the price crashes? If there is only a set demand for product, at low prices would that not mean lower Tax collection for the State?