I take it you run a dispensary & do wholesale buying? I'm curious does lower quality product become attractive at a low enough pricing point or is it all about quality?
I take it you run a dispensary & do wholesale buying? I'm curious does lower quality product become attractive at a low enough pricing point or is it all about quality?
frostqueen
Active member
lol, on what planet is outdoor weed going for $2100 wholesale?
More realistic prices here:
https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com/weekly-report.html
https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com/weekly-report.html
R
Robrites
We are getting too good at what we do. We produce too much. The factory farms are going to fuck us even more on price.
The Press loves to use those high numbers, especially when it relates to a bust.
3 yrs ago 21 would not be unheard of. Last year it was 18 top end, this year? Do you see a trend happening? Imagine what next year will bring if the weather is favorable. 6 may end up being the new number. I'd hate to be one of the people owing investors.
Happy New Year Everyone, hope you all have a banner year. Stay sticky.
3 yrs ago 21 would not be unheard of. Last year it was 18 top end, this year? Do you see a trend happening? Imagine what next year will bring if the weather is favorable. 6 may end up being the new number. I'd hate to be one of the people owing investors.
Happy New Year Everyone, hope you all have a banner year. Stay sticky.
I don't know where you are getting your numbers from but just seeing people come into dispensaries they buy way more than a few grams. Every person buys atleast 7 grams or 5 different 1 gram bud strains. I have proof from over 30 different people that just started smoking high grade cannabis (20% +), each one of them smoke atleast a half a month.
Plus having special cannabis plants/seeds that no one else has really does help with getting top price per pound. I'm not sharing my old genetics I saved for over 30 years with big business, never lol.
PDX Dopesmoker
Active member
I don't think that taking current demand for a product which has only be legally sold for 14 months and considering it as anything like fixed number is remotely realistic and sure that 35 acres might grow enough $15/g weed for the whole state, but limiting supply cartel-style will also have long term blowback. The current situation with the inefficient bureaucracy accidentally limiting supply gives us an example of one of the consequences: the Vancouver shops are minting a fortune from Oregon customers and all them taxes are being collected out of state (Oregon loses out even more because taxable income which otherwise would have been earned in state is instead earned in Washington).
socioecologist
Member
I would encourage doubters to read the paper--it will be more clear. I got the numbers from the only survey of cannabis producers and users conducted (by me as part of my doctoral dissertation work). There is strong sample bias when only looking at dispensary buyers. BOTEC (the fancy research group who did all the data collection for WA pre I502) got the same numbers when they surveyed users as well, providing some triangulation and external validation.
Don't cast it aside because "it doesn't match your experience": that's one of the four fallacies of pre-scientific thinking (i.e. selective observation).
PDXDopesmoker: use rates don't change very much when it is legalized. There has been a slight increase in the number of people reporting past month and year use in CO, WA, and OR, but it's not big. Which is exactly what I told policy makers, tax revenue analysts, and anyone else who would listen...cannabis has always been a niche drug--the vast majority of people who wanted to use it were not deterred by it's legal status. I know it's sacrilege to say on a canna-forum, but us cannabis users are most certainly in the minority, as most people just don't like its affects. Non-psychoactive cannabinoids are a totally different animal though...which is why I've been so "high" on hemp for the last 3 years.
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Socioecologist,
Before running across any of your research I had done the math and had come to pretty much the same conclusions you did. The THC market really isn't very big. It sounds very big when you put numbers on it at todays retail prices, ~$35-50 +billion nationally, but when you break that down by pounds it's not that much. All I did was extrapolate the colorado market to the rest of the nation. 15% of the population use 1/4 lb per year. That's 11.8 million pounds nationally which, if you assume each acre can produce 2000 lbs per year, can be grown on ~5900 acres, much less with greenhouses. Compare that to tobacco, 630 thousand U.S. acres in production. Even if you double or triple product demand the market is still very small relatively speaking. Oregon probably already has enough potential production thru existing licenses to supply over half the nation if you convert a good chunk of the outdoor to greenhouse.
Before running across any of your research I had done the math and had come to pretty much the same conclusions you did. The THC market really isn't very big. It sounds very big when you put numbers on it at todays retail prices, ~$35-50 +billion nationally, but when you break that down by pounds it's not that much. All I did was extrapolate the colorado market to the rest of the nation. 15% of the population use 1/4 lb per year. That's 11.8 million pounds nationally which, if you assume each acre can produce 2000 lbs per year, can be grown on ~5900 acres, much less with greenhouses. Compare that to tobacco, 630 thousand U.S. acres in production. Even if you double or triple product demand the market is still very small relatively speaking. Oregon probably already has enough potential production thru existing licenses to supply over half the nation if you convert a good chunk of the outdoor to greenhouse.
R
Robrites
...WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT AND NEW YEARS DAY FOLLOWED BY BITTER
COLD AIR NEXT WEEK...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL OBSERVE 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...AND MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OBSERVE 1 TO
4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW DURING THIS TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND
CENTRAL OREGON WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND COLD AIR
WILL ENTRENCH THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DRESS WARM FOR THE OUTDOORS AND PROTECT PETS AND LIVESTOCK FROM
THE EXPECTED ARCTIC AIR INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...CABLE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.
COLD AIR NEXT WEEK...
.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL OBSERVE 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...AND MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OBSERVE 1 TO
4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW DURING THIS TIME. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS...NORTH CENTRAL OREGON...AND
CENTRAL OREGON WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND COLD AIR
WILL ENTRENCH THE ENTIRE REGION NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DRESS WARM FOR THE OUTDOORS AND PROTECT PETS AND LIVESTOCK FROM
THE EXPECTED ARCTIC AIR INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...CABLE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.
frostqueen
Active member
Ugh. Again? This is shaping up to be one hell of a weird winter. These weather patterns are highly abnormal. Must be a Chinese hoax.
Yep. The Polar Vortex returns. Actually global warming predicts this kind of weather and more extreme weather events. As the jet stream gets more energy, it oscillates more. Like a fire hose with more pressure, it flips around even faster, bringing arctic air down to the PNW from Canada and Alaska.
Be like in Southpark, and blame Canada!
Be like in Southpark, and blame Canada!
We had freezing fog here this morning in the north Oregon Cascades and the trees were iced over. Now it is barely above freezing with low overcast and very light snow. Supposed to snow here today and tomorrow, and then the temps plummet into the teens this coming week. Portland and Seattle should both get some snow tomorrow. The east winds will pick up all week and make things very cold here and in most of the PNW. Seattle and Portland will be in the teens to twenties all week.
Its gonna be a PNW ice show...
Its gonna be a PNW ice show...
Not just here, but the herds are now rushing into the Humboldt, Trinity and Mendocino Counties in CA. However, as I and many others in CA predict, there is no advantage to growing in the Emerald Triangle if you can grow in flat land places like Fresno, Lodi and Bakersfield. More heat there, less rain, and far lower cost to lease/buy land there. Also there is a much larger labor force available to harvest and process ag in the Central Valley in CA.
I have also noticed an interesting thing growing here in the North Oregon Cascades vs. my brother growing the same exact clones in the Tualatin Valley; his plants grow 50% larger than mine do. Same soil, same 'weather', same parallel, same genetics. The difference is that he is on average 5 degrees warmer there in summer months than I am. From my horticulture notes from college, on average, every 10 degrees F increase in heat means 2x the growth, everything else being the same. So I cannot compete with my brother here. Nothing like heat to get Cannabis plants growing, and fast.
That also gives southern Oregon growers an advantage, growing outside. They get the heat in summer and early fall (most years, this year was a flop outside with early rains this year).
I agree with this. About half of the heavy use weed states have now legalized rec weed: CO, WA, OR, W-DC, AK, CA, MA, ME, and NV. And heavy use means only about 12%-15% of the general population. The other half of the heavy use states that have yet to legalize rec weed are: DE, HI, MI, CT, NY, RI, NH and VT where weed use is above 12% of the general population. Alaska has the highest percentage of users in state, and that is only 16%.
PDX Dopesmoker
Active member
socioecologist,
Does the demand estimate in your academic work reflect sales to out of state visitors? The weed tourism business in Portland has really been booming since rec sales started and before the current regulatory fracas we were selling to a lot of folks with Washington IDs as well. Do you consider wholesale exports of legendary Oregon bud to out of state buyers to be a basic fact of life in the informal economy?
With the 6.75z/year number for 14% of the state population of 4 million you'd need to be getting almost 7000lbs/acre to fill demand on 35 acres. Based on small samples of per acre production I figure 1000-1500lbs is the range of whats reasonably possible on an acre outdoor in the NW part of the state (I will discuss my sampling technique at length if desired, the short version is that it sucks).
I saw a standard deviation for the $177, is there one for the 6.75 ounces?
I'm not trying to question your academic work and I'm clearly biased in the direction of filling the state with pot plants on every available acre, but you don't have to look past Nate Silver to see how difficult it is to get accurate numbers when the human factor is in play.
I agree with you that the potential of a hemp based non-psychocaive medicine market is vast and largely unserved & thanks for posting your academic work, its quite interesting.
Do you know what is the ultimate goal of the state regulators are with respect to cannabis law? Is it maximizing OLCC tax & fee revenue? Maximizing overall tax revenue?
Does the demand estimate in your academic work reflect sales to out of state visitors? The weed tourism business in Portland has really been booming since rec sales started and before the current regulatory fracas we were selling to a lot of folks with Washington IDs as well. Do you consider wholesale exports of legendary Oregon bud to out of state buyers to be a basic fact of life in the informal economy?
With the 6.75z/year number for 14% of the state population of 4 million you'd need to be getting almost 7000lbs/acre to fill demand on 35 acres. Based on small samples of per acre production I figure 1000-1500lbs is the range of whats reasonably possible on an acre outdoor in the NW part of the state (I will discuss my sampling technique at length if desired, the short version is that it sucks).
I saw a standard deviation for the $177, is there one for the 6.75 ounces?
I'm not trying to question your academic work and I'm clearly biased in the direction of filling the state with pot plants on every available acre, but you don't have to look past Nate Silver to see how difficult it is to get accurate numbers when the human factor is in play.
I agree with you that the potential of a hemp based non-psychocaive medicine market is vast and largely unserved & thanks for posting your academic work, its quite interesting.
Do you know what is the ultimate goal of the state regulators are with respect to cannabis law? Is it maximizing OLCC tax & fee revenue? Maximizing overall tax revenue?
