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Coronavirus.. outlook

GMT

GMT

The Tri Guy
Veteran
Crooked8 said:
Not a psychic, not here to argue, i was just simply showing that 200k cases is in fact NOT 19% of almost 3 million. Not saying anything other than that. Just didnt want ppl thinking this had a 19% death rate. Not stating or formulating any opinions on future deaths or anything of the sort. Just saying 200k divided by 3 million is not 19%. Its not even 1%.
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Nor is it 20% of the 7 billion people on earth, but that's not giving an accurate picture. Why would you use active cases rather than closed cases to calculate outcomes?
 
Im'One

Im'One

Active member
moose eater said:
Per Medscapes publications over the last several days, some states report the probability of death stats being reported LOWER than actual occurrence.

And yesterday, another observation was published by Medscape re. young adults who've recovered, then experiencing strokes involving primary blood vessels.

It seems that 2 things are true, then; as with tossing a penny in the air, outcomes such as slanting stats is not a one-way street; errors usually don't occur in a one-direction-only manner, and 2.) the aftermath of the Virus, even for younger healthier persons who 'recover', there are some new twists that surprise those observing. Strokes in younger healthier persons after recovery?

Re. the fur markets, though the Eurasian response to wild-caught or any real fur products has had a notable impact on fur markets (lynx dropped over a ~10-year period from once being close to $400 for a very nice/deluxe raw hide, to worth about $45 last winter and into this one, from reports near me), the farmed fur, similar to urban congestion with humans, equates to 'pandemic in a box,' whereas wild fur sources are less apt to share a virus, other than the possible exception of pack critters, such as wolves, for which the prices haven't gone down nearly as much as lynx and some others over the last 10 years, with a very nice large wolf with premium fur still getting ('fleshed' and raw) $350 to $400.

The ironies of this includes the likelihood that farmed fur will become more scarce in general, thus possibly more valuable, assuming folks follow the logical path, and wild-caught fur will likely become more valuable again, as well.
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sorry but logical is not likely...:comfort:
 
M

moose eater

Im'One said:
sorry but logical is not likely...:comfort:
Click to expand...

I guess what I should've said was 'market logic.'

Folks seem to want what they can't have, whether they need it or not.

The more scarce something becomes, the more persons typically pay for it, even when there's scant reason to have 'it', what ever 'it' is.

---------------------------------------------
The Anchorage Daily News published an article comparing the 1918 epidemic that saw Anchorage quarantined, pointing out that some of what we're seeing today looks familiar, including those folks who are complaining about the quarantine.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-life/202...ClVoSP_VIYmt8CJtYVExdenHm66DENMJAJtC8ho3RF5hs

Odd, huh? Human beings recreating their reality over and over, whether good, bad or ugly, kinda' like 'Ground Hog Day,' often learning very little in the process.

"And the seasons, they go 'round and 'round, and the painted ponies go up and down, we're captives on a carousel in time, we can't return we can only look behind from where we came, and go 'round and 'round and 'round in the Circle Game......" (Joni Mitchell- 'Circle Game')
 
Crooked8

Crooked8

Well-known member
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GMT said:
Nor is it 20% of the 7 billion people on earth, but that's not giving an accurate picture. Why would you use active cases rather than closed cases to calculate outcomes?
Click to expand...

Did you read what i originally quoted from
Medfinder? He had deaths at 19% i was ONLY showing that this figure was incorrect. That is all. I am not and was not trying to calculate any outcomes. I have no idea what is going to happen. I do know that 200k sure wasnt 19% of 3 million. That was my ONLY point. The figure that was posted previously was incorrect, that is it. If one posts incorrect math should nobody say anything?
 
mr.brunch

mr.brunch

Well-known member
✓
Veteran
Crooked8 said:
Did you read what i originally quoted from
Medfinder? He had deaths at 19% i was ONLY showing that this figure was incorrect. That is all. I am not and was not trying to calculate any outcomes. I have no idea what is going to happen. I do know that 200k sure wasnt 19% of 3 million. That was my ONLY point. The figure that was posted previously was incorrect, that is it. If one posts incorrect math should nobody say anything?
Click to expand...

I think the 19% figure comes from the ‘closed cases’ at the bottom... 81% recovered, 19% died.
CLOSED CASES
1,045,764
 
I'mback

I'mback

Comfortably numb!
Crooked8 said:
Did you read what i originally quoted from
Medfinder? He had deaths at 19% i was ONLY showing that this figure was incorrect. That is all. I am not and was not trying to calculate any outcomes. I have no idea what is going to happen. I do know that 200k sure wasnt 19% of 3 million. That was my ONLY point. The figure that was posted previously was incorrect, that is it. If one posts incorrect math should nobody say anything?
Click to expand...
Your fine :) The President does it all the time!
 
Medfinder

Medfinder

Chemon 91
Worldometer
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Last updated: April 27, 2020, 13:44 GMT
Graphs - Countries - Death Rate - Symptoms - Incubation - Transmission - News
Coronavirus Cases:
3,014,895
view by country
Deaths:
207,928
Recovered:
888,543
ACTIVE CASES
1,918,424
Currently Infected Patients
1,860,881 (97%)
in Mild Condition

57,543 (3%)
Serious or Critical
CLOSED CAES
1,096,471
Cases which had an outcome:
888,543 (81%)
Recovered / Discharged

207,928 (19%)
Deaths

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
S

St. Phatty

Active member
https://dvd.netflix.com/Search?v1=andromeda strain

remember that movie The Andromeda Strain ?

if I remember, in the movie, your blood turned to sand. "crystallized into a powder".

well i'd rather have blood that turns into sand, fictionally, than blood that clots like crazy - in real life.

in the movie, that's a complication that strikes everybody.

the Covid19 blood clotting happens less often.


anybody ever made Bearnaise sauce, or Custard ?

the blood clotting thing reminds me of that.
 
Crooked8

Crooked8

Well-known member
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mr.brunch said:
I think the 19% figure comes from the ‘closed cases’ at the bottom... 81% recovered, 19% died.
CLOSED CASES
1,045,764
Click to expand...
If thats the case then i totally get it. I was wondering if maybe i was reading it wrong. Thanks for the heads up!
 
mr.brunch

mr.brunch

Well-known member
✓
Veteran
Crooked8 said:
If thats the case then i totally get it. I was wondering if maybe i was reading it wrong. Thanks for the heads up!
Click to expand...

I guess the worrying thing is, if that’s the rate then there’s still 2 million ish cases not closed- that would suggest another 400,000 bereaved families.
Sad times.
 
GMT

GMT

The Tri Guy
Veteran
Not to mention 1 case turned into 3 million in 6 months. At that rate the whole world would have caught it by Xmas if not for the lockdown. That's almost 2 billion dead by early 2021. And people are ignoring the lockdown, and some places are looking to lift the lockdown in order to protect billionaires wealth at the expense of our health.
 
GMT

GMT

The Tri Guy
Veteran
Oh yeah, forgot to mention: the UK NHS bought 33 million masks. Handed out 12 million, and has run out. The govt said " no comment" when asked what happened to the rest.
Source: panorama BBC.
 
M

moose eater

Some folks are panicked re. buying food for their families, paying bills that aren't receiving a moratorium on required immediate payment, etc..

I'd try to moderate the related fears of not making ends meet, with something less than immediate aid, but ask, has this crisis taught any of us anything about accepting the economic circumstances sculpted for us by the Oligarchy as worker bees? Where we (many) live on credit, like our Government, but unlike the Gov., can't just print currency to make due when there's a shortage?

By my calculations, despite serious quarterly profits most years, the larger Wall St. banks have received between $12 and $15 Trillion between the Fed and the Treasury, just since September, after reallocating their funds into higher-risk 'gambling' endeavors one can only call an investment if grinning broadly, and this was going on well before anyone knew anything about Corona, other than it was the imported Mexican equivalent of a mass-produced weak American piss-colored beer.

I have yet to put a calculator to it, but dividing just THAT sum of money, by what ever number of adults are represented in the total/overall 350,000,000 persons in the US, would give a good look-see as to who and what our representatives in the USA -really- cater to; not that the answers would be that surprising to many of us..

If our public received even a fraction of the respect, concern, and understanding the major corporations and banks receive, we could weather an 18-month lock-down while standing on our heads, But we apparently failed to 'buy' enough of our Government's interest when we donated to campaigns or kicked back on inflated contract money..

In the interim, for those who are choosing to endanger others, rather than abide by the sheltering in place, whether due to ignorance, bravado, or fear re. indebtedness and life's needs, I know the churches, soup kitchens, and food banks/pantries, etc., are taxed, but some/many still have resources, and it's not a major diminishing of one's stature or integrity to ask when help is needed.

Or share with our neighbors; many places are doing that. Especially in more socially isolated immigrant communities.

There's possibly still some options that don't inherently involve putting families and neighbors at greater risk. Many of us have enough of something to be able to share in a safer manner.
 
I'mback

I'mback

Comfortably numb!
GMT said:
Not to mention 1 case turned into 3 million in 6 months. At that rate the whole world would have caught it by Xmas if not for the lockdown. That's almost 2 billion dead by early 2021. And people are ignoring the lockdown, and some places are looking to lift the lockdown in order to protect billionaires wealth at the expense of our health.
Click to expand...
Sure one their way of deleting 6.5B people! Think about it!
 
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