I really don't see how the price *can't* go down, given the ability of licensed rec growers to produce weed & the low price of production. The way it's structured, competition among growers will be fierce, oversupply likely at some point. There's nothing the State or anybody else can do about it, really.
Maybe I'm nuts, but I figure high quality product costs well under $1/gram to produce at industrial scale, probably half that. That's everything- overhead, licensing, equipment amortized over a few years, labor, all of it. That's $275-$550/lb. And you need to sell it to maintain cashflow or go tits up, lose your investment.
So when total production starts bumping up against a near vertical demand curve, prices will go down like Dick Cheney's hunting buddy. If retailers will give you $700/lb, you'll be glad to get it because the other guy would be happy with less. It turns ruthless very quickly when there really is more than enough weed.
Some of these outfits, otoh, have deep pockets & have their eye on the far horizon, legalization at a much broader national scale. They'll happily lose money for several years to build their market share, organization & expertise. They're planning on using it as a tax write-off. They'll beat the pants off of guys who aren't that good at it. Hammer 'em.
Retailers are always after greater market share, too, so sales, specials & low prices are part of the way to get that.
I expect the whole marketing mode to change dramatically, to shift to consistent pre packaged brand name products. Do they bring out various samples of whiskey for you to snurfle & inspect at the liquor store? Take a lot of time catering to your curiosity? Hardly. Well, other than high end shops who develop a fine wines clientele.
The other side of it, the export side, is really other people's problem. We've made reasonable provisions to keep it to a minimum with the tourist limits of 1/4 oz per transaction. Beefed up the State Patrol to catch the dummies before they get out of state & suffer a much worse fate over there. If we don't have billboards at every major border crossing, we should.
It's small time, personal. It starts to be a problem when CO pot is cheap enough that it's worth the trouble for CO residents to buy up retail ounces & have them carted off in big batches to other markets, get busted doing it, too. We're a long ways from that.
I am leaving this town...LOL
