Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[The iD]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to SpasticGramps again.

+1627. your saving me a good amount of breath.

Sunny, what we are talking about HERE, in this thread, is NOT political, it is ECONOMIC. we are currently discussing the probabilities and potential outcomes of a default and threat there of and ways in which to profit or secure one's wealth based on those probabilities. what is POLITICAL, and what no one here gives two red cents about, is the debate between potential allocation of revenues and the cutting of expenditures and difference between the two depending by party. i respectfully disagree that politics move economies, as i believe the inverse. please, lets not get this thread binned like the collapse thread, which was equally informative imo.

back OT: AU/AG is only actualized once it has been delivered physically. kinda like sex. the promise doesnt get you off. PM Trusts leverage their holdings so an oz may have multiple owners. the Crimex even blatantly lies ~ their AG supply.

i have 1.9% portfolio allocation of VXX currently. that or another VIX ETF/ETN may be profitable in the short term and is a good hedge against uncertainty or potential loses due to volatility.

to whoever Called VMW a pg or 2 back, my Puts cashed in. Kansas City Shuffle.

stay shiny...err...frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

i respectfully disagree that politics move economies, as i believe the inverse.

+1775

 

[SpasticGramps]

Dangerous thing about all this uncertainty and panic selling is that the computer algorithms can easily end up cannibalizing themselves and the market with it. The Nanex keeps a close eye on the High Frequency Trading programs. May 6 flash crash came during the Greek Debt crisis.

From today.
Huge Spike In HFT Packet Stuffing As Market Tumbles To Fresh Lows

Yes, SkyNet, we are watching you. And an odd correlation: every time a resistance level is breached, the computers go apeshit. Truly odd how this happens everytime computers try to outrun each other.

Damn you Waddell and Reed.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Regan raised the debt ceiling 18 times.And Bush 7 times.

Reagan: Huge deficit? Meh.
Bush I: Huge deficit? Meh.
Clinton: Huge deficit? OMG! SHUT'ER DOWN!
Bush II: Huge deficit? Meh.
Obama: Huge deficit? OMG! GTFO!

I think there's a pattern there but I just can't grasp it.

I'm interested in the value in 2010 dollars of the increase of each of the years.Using a standard inflation calculator and re-running the numbers,we find that by today's standards,Reagan increased the debt limit by $3.825 trillion,with an average increase of $212.5 billion.

And if we put EVERYTHING into 2010 equivalent dollars to account for inflation:

Reagan increased the debt ceiling by $3.825 trillion (avg. $212.5bn).
Clinton increased the debt ceiling by $2.558 trillion (avg. $639.6 bn).
Bush increased the debt ceiling by $5.875 trillion (avg. $839.3 bn).
Obama increased the debt ceiling by $2.996 trillion (avg. $998.8 bn)

After this Debt limit increase..Heard there's going to be another debt limit increase after the election.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Wow I have a lot to learn. Thanks for posting.

You learn to chart is the very first thing to do, save that link above with my settings and type in various tickers...then learn about the various sectors from health care to tech to energy.... transportation to fertilizers & Happy Meals ...don't laugh at the latter because in times of recession fears MacDonalds & restaurants are the stocks they run to ...it just finished reaching an all time high
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p05769693932


But even MCD has started to roll over not a good sign...then learn about those "indicators" notated on the charts, the 'moving averages' , the RSI, PPO , MacD, CCI and just keep at it , it will take couple of years of time . But there are many good resources out there like the site above to Investopedia that will help with definitions...then think buy low sell high & the reverse!;o)
(when you learn to short...)

Then must learn to understand fundamentals of business profits & earnings vs stock price which also takes lots of time & study .

 

[Madrus Rose]

Head & Shoulders on the SPX forming ?

note a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick followed by a break through 1334.87, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Now testing below the 38.2% boundary at 1320.15, with a break below that exposing 1308.24 and 1296.34.Overall, a break below 1257.30 is needed to confirm the formation, exposing a measured target at 1138.50.
.

.
.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Forget the debt ceiling Gramps---> Fears of second-half slowdown spook corporate America
( they have full blown reccession facing them and no job creation )
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fears...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

By Scott Malone

BOSTON (Reuters) - Corporate America's hopes for a second-half pickup in the U.S. economy dimmed on Wednesday, as companies from Emerson Electric Co (NYSE: EMR - News) to Corning Inc (NYSE: GLW - News) warned of weakening demand for everything from industrial equipment to televisions.

Their cautious words, coupled with weak earnings reports from Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE: DAL - News) and health insurer WellPoint Inc (NYSE: WLP - News) spooked investors who are already on edge over the U.S. debt-ceiling standoff, sending the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index ( ^SPX - News) down more than 1 percent.

The words marked a change in tone for big companies, many of which had previously been calling for demand to pick up later in the year.

Executives warned that the long-awaited rebound in consumer spending is not materializing, as the nation's stubbornly high unemployment leaves many families with less disposable income.

Adding to their worries, the industrial demand that so far has helped prop up a sluggish economy, is starting to fade.

"We have seen a definite weakening of general business activity in June and July," Emerson said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The St. Louis-based maker of power equipment for corporate computer networks and factory automation gear noted that its order growth slowed in the three months ended in June: "U.S. and European economies have clearly slowed and entered a soft patch and it remains unclear if they will improve much in the second half of the calendar year."

The company's shares fell 7 percent, hitting their lowest point since September and pulled down fellow industrials including Rockwell Automation Inc (NYSE: ROK - News) and General Electric Co (NYSE: GE - News) .

"Emerson's management team has their finger on the pulse of the global economy pretty well," said Nomura analyst Shannon O'Callaghan. "Their upfront statement is sending a message about a broader slowdown."

Even companies that posted better-than-expected results, including Boeing Co (NYSE: BA - News), did so largely on cost cutting, analysts said.

For an interactive earnings scorecard: http://r.reuters.com/dud72s

CONSUMERS HOLD OFF, OLD ADVERSARIES RETURN

Glassmaker Corning opened a window into consumer behavior when it lowered its demand forecast, saying that fewer consumers seemed ready to spend their money on high-end flat-panel televisions.

"There is a sense that the economies around the world are not growing as fast as people had originally hoped," said Chief Financial Officer Jim Flaws, on a day the company reported a 17.3 percent drop in quarterly profit.

"What you are seeing is the major TV brands like Sony, Samsung, LG all reducing their forecasts of what will be sold at retail," Flaws added. "It is not by huge amounts but it is by an amount that is causing us, and the rest of the supply chain, to say there is going to be less volume in the back half of the year."

Two of the U.S. economy's biggest structural weaknesses, the rising cost of energy and healthcare, also played a role in Wednesday's wave of worry.

No. 2 airline Delta said profit fell 57.6 percent, more than analysts had expected. The company blamed the drop on a run-up in fuel prices over the past year, which more than offset a rise in revenue. Its shares fell 5 percent to their lowest since November 2009.

"The challenge to the airlines right now is absorbing higher fuel costs," said Matthew Jacob, senior airlines analyst at ITG Investment Research.

WellPoint, the No. 2 U.S. health insurer by market value, said profit fell 3 percent. Its results suffered as more sick senior citizens in northern California enrolled in its Medicare plan, raising the company's costs after rivals pulled out of the region.

Even debt-ratings agency Moody's Corp (NYSE: MCO - News), which reported a 56 percent rise in second-quarter profit, warned things are going to get tougher, as the European sovereign debt crisis and the risk of the United States losing its top-tier AAA credit rating scare off potential bond issuers.

"We expect more challenging debt issuance conditions in the U.S. and Europe in the second half of 2011 as compared to the first half of the year," CEO Raymond McDaniel said.

(Reporting by Scott Malone, additional reporting by Nick Zieminski, Liana Baker, David Henry and Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Karen Jacobs in Atlanta; editing by Gunna Dickson)

 

[Madrus Rose]

POT ...one of the largest fertilizer comps in the world that supplies 17% of the nitrates & phos from Canada due up to report earnings today . It has doubled revenues by 50% year over year and could have bought this stock for $16 just 2 yrs ago and nearly made four times investment

*Note this strong "resistance" at $62 & touch to RSI 70 (overbought) which held it & just pulled back from...getting "fully valued" now , so you have to wait for it to get cheaper .

 

[Sundance]

Regan raised the debt ceiling 18 times.And Bush 7 times.

Reagan: Huge deficit? Meh.
Bush I: Huge deficit? Meh.
Clinton: Huge deficit? OMG! SHUT'ER DOWN!
Bush II: Huge deficit? Meh.
Obama: Huge deficit? OMG! GTFO!

I think there's a pattern there but I just can't grasp it.

I'm interested in the value in 2010 dollars of the increase of each of the years.Using a standard inflation calculator and re-running the numbers,we find that by today's standards,Reagan increased the debt limit by $3.825 trillion,with an average increase of $212.5 billion.

And if we put EVERYTHING into 2010 equivalent dollars to account for inflation:

Reagan increased the debt ceiling by $3.825 trillion (avg. $212.5bn).
Clinton increased the debt ceiling by $2.558 trillion (avg. $639.6 bn).
Bush increased the debt ceiling by $5.875 trillion (avg. $839.3 bn).
Obama increased the debt ceiling by $2.996 trillion (avg. $998.8 bn)

After this Debt limit increase..Heard there's going to be another debt limit increase after the election.

Hahahaha

You guys have fun " not " talking about politics and how it effects economics and markets

BTW - if you do the math ... Reagan ( who I love ) raised the debt ceiling 18 times over 8 years

Why is obama quoting and praising Reagan so much - yet adamant about not accepting a short term debt ceiling bill ?

Politics !

After many years working Wall Street type jobs, and making others rich trading the market - I now only do this for myself and my family

I am good with everything ... and everyone !

I got a bunch (2months) of international and domestic travel just ahead of me - will check and trade the market while I am away - but wont be online here much - if at all during most of that time ... very possible I cant access this site - the country I will mostly be in may block access to this site .. but I will try to long on ... I got a friend who is not in good health I want to check in on

Best of luck trading and profiting thru this debt crisis and onward

Smoke a J and relax

Stay safe

Sundance

 

[SpasticGramps]

Great posts Madrus.

Sorry I spooked the damn two party paradigm name dropping herd again.

 

[joeuser]

Regan raised the debt ceiling 18 times.And Bush 7 times.

Reagan: Huge deficit? Meh.
Bush I: Huge deficit? Meh.
Clinton: Huge deficit? OMG! SHUT'ER DOWN!
Bush II: Huge deficit? Meh.
Obama: Huge deficit? OMG! GTFO!

I think there's a pattern there but I just can't grasp it.

I'm interested in the value in 2010 dollars of the increase of each of the years.Using a standard inflation calculator and re-running the numbers,we find that by today's standards,Reagan increased the debt limit by $3.825 trillion,with an average increase of $212.5 billion.

And if we put EVERYTHING into 2010 equivalent dollars to account for inflation:

Reagan increased the debt ceiling by $3.825 trillion (avg. $212.5bn).
Clinton increased the debt ceiling by $2.558 trillion (avg. $639.6 bn).
Bush increased the debt ceiling by $5.875 trillion (avg. $839.3 bn).
Obama increased the debt ceiling by $2.996 trillion (avg. $998.8 bn)

After this Debt limit increase..Heard there's going to be another debt limit increase after the election.

The difference is...now it's becoming exponential...it's going up too fast for people with low wages (average Americans) to pay for.

You can carry debt forever as log as you can make the payments...we can't make the payments any more. We're now borrowing 40% more than we can pay for through current taxes.

It's like a family borrowing 40% of what they spend every month on necessities. Like making $600 and borrowing $400 because total expenses are $1000...EVERY month. That's where we are as a country. We maxed out ALL our credit and now need to take out more.

So, we "borrow" and print money to pay the bills. If this inflation wasn't spread out over the entire world...diluted...it would have already caused hyperinflation.

The world would LIKE to dump the dollar...we're costing them a fortune...but our military prevents it. It's WHY we're in so many wars now and have troops in so many countries.

People are getting pissed...China stopped appreciable bond buying, Japan can't any more, Europe can't, we're buying our own debt through a bullshit Federal Reserve accounting trick.

It's the size that is different this time. We're already not able to make the monthly payments yet we NEED more credit.

We need to borrow forever...each American citizen is born almost $50,000 in "government debt". You're expected to pay that back. You're an American debt slave...working partly for your government. You're labor is taken from you through taxes.

It's all quite ingenious...you THINK you're free...yet you're not. EVERYTHING (legal) is pre-chosen for you. You're only REAL choice is "which color".

 

[The iD]

VXX +2.32% today. markets basically flat, tomorrow is going to be vicious (-2.0%+?). hold on to your foil wrapped crash helmets, this is gonna get fun. i was technically net short paper PMs coming into today and now its flipped slightly long as i shot off a bunch of my tight puts. theyre hedged to high hell but i plan to hit up the calls as the debate over the debtacle continues, then tap these puts on the way back down after a credit raise agreement. im not holding buys/shorts but working in options only, after taking profits from my '09 buys this and last month, until we reject this top fully. i have little faith Bernank will stop printing before QE3/OT2/SD. too much risk of a melt up imo.

im actually long usd currently, mostly cash on hand, but some in UUP, UUPT, etc. have to have cash in case of a liquidity crunch. position has actually been profitable so far. long term i am short USD, EUR, long AUD, CAD, CHF. long term is 6mo-1yr for me.

long fizz PMs till i die or i need to buy food/h2o, ammo, property, or a new fiat. basically goods/services. strangles/condors on PAPER PMs, up, down, up, down, a, b, b, a.

net short everything else. oil, commodities, tech, fins, indexes. everything. nat gas should hold decently. there are exceptions to this tho as well (not APPL tho, sry). theres a few stocks that will hold up well, where i plan to BTD. just take a gander at the 10yr chart and hone in on '08/'09, the harder they come, the harder they fall.

have always loved the chartologies Rose. :thumbsup: i agree w/ the H/S and this recent topping pattern.

source: Guest Post: Ominous Similarities - ZH

up w/ charts, down w/ politics!

stay frosty,

-iD

 

[SpasticGramps]

The Treasury finally release a worst case scenario plan. If/When we go belly up. Bond holders have first dibs on the checks. That's right. The Primary Dealers (JP Moron, Government Sachs, etc) will get paid, too bad so sad for the proletariat.

Treasury Leaks Worst Case Contingency Plan: Creditors Get Priority In Case Of Technical Default

Things are getting real. After all the bluffing, huffing and puffing by Geithner, the rating agencies, and anything with a pulse and a TV or radio pulpit has failed, the last trump card is coming down. While yesterday the Treasury informed that it would not disclose any details of its contingency plan, Bloomberg has just learned via a Treasury leak that the US government will give priority to bondholders. From Bloomberg: "The U.S. Treasury will give priority to making interest payments to holders of government bonds when due if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, according to an administration official. The official requested anonymity because no announcement has been made. The Treasury has said about $90b in debt matures on Aug. 4 and more than $30b in interest comes due Aug. 15. Overall, more than $500b matures in August." And so it begins: while the Treasury has not yet pushed the big red flashing button, this leak is nothing but it latest and greatest bluff. It also means that America will, indeed default, next week, as the absence of a contractual payment is a default. And then we get into the fine print with the rating agencies whether or not X is default but Y is not. At that point however it won't matter: every form of intermarket liquidity will be permanently gone as Lehman will be a cherished walk in the park. Thank you Tim Geithner and your total lack of contingency plans.

 

[SpasticGramps]

hold on to your foil wrapped crash helmets, this is gonna get fun.

Which hat do you think looks better on me. Dow 100 or Dow 0. I'm kind of digging the 0.

 

[The iD]

Dow0 certainly looks the better, but i think the Dow100 w/ the black veil is more appropriate, since i dont think everyone is ready to toss their Dow∞ lids just yet. when QEn no longer has an effect on the markets, when all their tricks are impotent to the great wave, i think i will be confident to light that sucker ablaze.

"The only thing in history that changes are the hats." -iD. stay frosty,

-iD

 

[CascadeFarmer]

Which hat do you think looks better on me. Dow 100 or Dow 0. I'm kind of digging the 0.

I'm short the general markets so either way I'd 'win'. Yesterday was ugly. Today, for me, only confirmed yesterday's action. Earlier today was wondering if I had made the right call on my entry yesterday but as the day wore on pretty sure I was correct...especially at the close today.

 

[SpasticGramps]

i think i will be confident to light that sucker ablaze.

"The only thing in history that changes are the hats." -iD. stay frosty,

-iD

Nice quote.

Going to pic up a t-shirt when they get my size back in.

I'm short the general markets so either way I'd 'win'. Yesterday was ugly. Today, for me, only confirmed yesterday's action. Earlier today was wondering if I had made the right call on my entry yesterday but as the day wore on pretty sure I was correct...especially at the close today.

It sure did puke on itself at the close.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Debt Fallout: Even Market Pros Don't Know What to Do CNBC

Market pros—both young and old—see this week’s debt-ceiling talks as the culmination of a year-long string of uncertainties that has left many of them the most confused they've ever been.

“There has never been a period in our experience where there have been so many factors, inputs and issues directly and indirectly affecting the stock market,” said Laszlo Birinyi, the legendary trader at Salomon Brothers through the 1970s and 80s who now runs his own research firm, in a note. “Many of them are, frankly, beyond our capabilities and competence.”

Along with the debt debate, right now traders are dealing with the still-flaring Euro debt crisis, the end of one of the most extraordinary monetary stimulus plans ever under taken by the Federal Reserve, a potential ‘hard landing’ in China, troubles with municipal bond financing and a still stumbling U.S. housing market.

Meanwhile, spreads on bonds for Greece and Italy have widened back out this week as if the second bailout of Greece agreed upon earlier this month never took place. Not to mention, it is the heart of quarterly earnings season.

“It’s almost as if investors are having to invest with one eye open as they look around each corner, hoping not to be hit with a new ‘headwind,’” said Brian Sozzi, an analyst with Wall Street Strategies. “What has been happening for the past year is something generally not taught in books.”

“The more economic headwinds that we face, the more the Fed will be inclined to increase accommodation and liquidity,” said Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services. “The obvious problem here is that we are in the same ‘bubble-bust-repeat’ cycle that began in the early 1990s, so the trick, in investing, becomes identifying where the bubbles exist.”

 

[vta]

I am very interested to see how things play out this next week.

Here is an example of what 15 trillion looks like...boy do we need a budget!


Here is $100 million

Now 15 Trillion.......

 

[SpasticGramps]

Q2 GDP came into today at a whopping 1.3%. So much the for the Keynesian recovery.

Q1 GDP was revised downward biglaugh: release revise down, release revise down, wash rinse repeat) from 1.9% to a paltry 0.4%. Ouch! In real terms this is a contraction and these are the best numbers that the dying propaganda machine can poop out.

Benny is firing up the printing presses as we speak. I said earlier several times we'd see QE3 by the fall. Looks like it may be before that. This ponzi is running on empty. I think when QE4 or 5 comes is when the markets realizes that the party is over and everything implodes. We shall see. The ponzi if nothing is resilient. Each QE (or whatever the call it in the future) will do less and less until more printing will have no effect and the whole rotten system implodes on itself.

I'm sure all the pundits and propaganda parrots will be talking about a double dip . The big secret is we never left the first one. Monetary illusions don't make for real economic recovery. Never was a recovery. Just a coverup at the expense of the washed masses.

Economy Grows at Sluggish 1.3%; Consumers Pull Back CNBC

The U.S. economy grew less than expected in the second quarter as consumer spending barely rose, and growth braked sharply in the prior quarter, a government report showed on Friday.

Growth in gross domestic product—a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders—rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said.

First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.

Q2 GDP 1.3% release will be revised down next month like everything else. It's the best way the propagandist can put lipstick on the pig.