Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

I would imagine we will get a decent correction like we did last year if not more violent.

They have to at least pretend there is some sense of fiscal sanity, but maybe not.

One thing that is going to throw a monkey wrench in the IMF global consolidation country buying program is their Chief was arrested for raping via oral sex a woman on his way to the Greek default/meltdown conference. Rapes a woman before he goes off to rape a country. The wonders of global fascism. His immediate successor is the ex chief economist at JP Morgan so I'm sure he'll have all our best interests in mind.

You just can't make this up.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn was taken into custody on Saturday at JFK airport in New York and was being questioned in regard to a sexual assault, a New York police spokesman told Reuters.

Spokesman Paul Browne said the woman who filed the complaint against Strauss-Kahn, 62, was a 32-year-old chambermaid who fled the room after the incident.

Strauss-Kahn, a possible Socialist candidate in the French presidential election next April, left the hotel after the incident and boarded an Air France aircraft scheduled to depart for Paris, the police spokesman said.

"The NYPD realized he had fled, he had left his cell phone behind," Browne said. "We learned he was on an Air France plane. They held the plane and he was taken off and is now being held in police custody for questioning."

Browne said Strauss-Kahn had not been charged.

Police said the alleged incident took place at the upscale Sofitel hotel on West 44th Street near Times Square.

The chambermaid "was brought by EMS (emergency medical services) to the Roosevelt Hotel, where she was treated for minor injuries," Brown said.

 

[SpasticGramps]

So we have breached the debt ceiling without resolving the issue in Congress. How come we haven't defaulted yet? The Treasury is stealing from Pension funds to keep the ponzi going in the short term. Why have fiscal sanity when you can just steal from people?

Treasury Confirms Debt Ceiling To Be Breached Today; Will Tap Pension Funds

It's official: the US credit card has officially been maxed out, just as we predicted on Wednesday, and througout Q1 and Q2. The United States is expected to reach the legal limit on its debt later on Monday and will start dipping into federal retirement funds to give the country more room to borrow, a Treasury official said. As Reuters reports further, The U.S. Treasury will settle $72 billion in maturing bonds on Monday, which will push the country right up against its $14.294 trillion borrowing cap, the official said. To all those who thought only the insolvent government of Ireland will plunder pension funds, our condolences.

Full release (no pun intended):

As US Reaches Debt Limit, Geithner Implements Additional Extraordinary Measures to Allow Continued Funding of Government Obligations

Today, the United States has reached the statutory debt limit. Secretary Geithner sent the following letter to Congress this morning alerting them to actions that have be taken to create additional headroom under the debt limit so that Treasury can continue funding obligations made by Congresses past and present. The Secretary declared a "debt issuance suspension period" for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, permitting Treasury to redeem a portion of existing Treasury securities held by that fund as investments and suspend issuance of new Treasury securities to that fund as investments. He also suspended the daily reinvestment of Treasury securities held as investments by the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees’ Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan. For more information on these measures, please read this FAQ.

Last Friday, Secretary Geithner also responded to an inquiry from Senator Bennet regarding the fiscal and economic consequences of failing to increase the debt limit. That letter can be found here.

Secretary Geithner continues to urge Congress to raise the debt limit in a timely manner in order to uphold the full faith and credit of the United States.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Just to give everyone a warm and fuzzy feeling about how just absolutely genius our leaders are. Here is the FED. Looks like they haven't thought about an exit strategy from ZIRP or Quantitative Easing, yet. What a f'ing surprise! Fail to plan, plan to fail.

If you have a room temperature IQ about economics you'd know that there is no exit from what the FED has done. There never was once we started monetizing structural deficits at artificially low interest rates to maintain the illusion of solvency. This is the endgame for currencies. Play stupid games and you win stupid prizes.

The exit happens when the proles finally see all of their savings disappear and can no longer buy food because of inflation. Uncle Benny's exit plan will be running away from the angry mob looking to string him up.

Fed hasn't decided exit strategy yet: Lockhart Market Watch

By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve hasn't decided on an exit strategy from ultra low interest rates and its $600 billion bond buying program, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said Sunday, according to a transcipt of his remarks. "Some of my colleagues have already begun to weigh in on the details of exit. I will not do so today, but I think it would be a mistake to assume that these public conversations on exit are much more than an open discussion of the options the central bank should consider," he said. The Fed will communicate an exit strategy once it's clear the economic rebound is secure. "Once the expansion becomes more clearly sustainable, it will be appropriate to begin the process of normalization of interest rate policy and the Fed's balance sheet. The exact timing remains to be determined by the FOMC. I am confident that the committee will provide guidance when we have enough certainty that the guidance will provide more signal than noise to financial markets and the public," he said.

 

[iSMOKE.KUSH]

this is just unbelievable.

my only question...why timmy boy is so worried if we are late on a payment that china will look at that as a sign of financial weakness and inability to pay? doesn't raping the pension funds to continue borrowing virtually send the same statement?

if i was going to give someone a loan, and they said 'ok hey let me go rob this old grandma, so that i can give you the down payment.', i would think twice about giving them the loan...

 

[Mountain]

Market tanked on higher volume which is pretty much what Madrus said was gonna happen, the market rolling over, and some of what Gramps has said with QE2 ending soon just supports that even more. Silver struggling and seems to be trying to find a bottom.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Debt ceiling due day , Osama warns over the weekend the dangers of risk of not raising the debt ceiling would cause another recession much worse than the last...Bill Gross of Pimco on CNBC today clarifying the misrepresented Seeking Alpha report as inaccurate ...but once again the key words were "Slow Growth" which all supports the recent massive sell off in commodities now followed by stocks . When you put slow growth, debt together with inflation you get sell off ...

*note the time was right when things started to tank today , just before noon

Slow Growth, Inflation Make US Bonds Bad Buy: Gross
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43046632
Published: Monday, 16 May 2011 | 11:15 AM ET
Text Size By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

The US economy is headed for a period of higher inflation and lower growth that makes the nation's debt unappealing when measured against its global competitors, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.
The head of the world's largest bond firm, with nearly $1.3 trillion under management, explained the firm's position further as it has cut out all longer-dated exposure to US debt.Instead, the firm is comfortable with more stable countries such as Canada, Brazil and Germany. At the same time, Pimco also has turned to the equity markets to combat low-yielding US debt as the country tries to get its finances under control.

"Debt tends to slow economic growth," Gross said in a live interview. "We're going to have a slow-growth economy and probably one in which inflation goes higher, which is not a conducive recipe for financial markets."
cont'd

 

[Madrus Rose]

Major Crash Coming for Stocks, Commodities Already Topping Out

>http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/dail...-commodities-already-20110331-080715-415.html

The first quarter comes to a close today with major averages at or near multi-year highs. Expect "substantial" further gains for stocks before a "major top" occurs in late summer, says noted forecaster Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent and The Dent Method.

The good news, for those long, is Dent predicts the Dow will trade as high as 13,200 by mid-summer and the S&P 500 as high as 1430, or more-than 7% above current levels. The bad news is "then we could see another major crash," Dent says, forecasting the Dow could trade as low as 3300 in a worst-case scenario. "Bubbles go back to where they started or a little lower," he says. "The stock market bubble started at (Dow) 3800 in late 1994."

While Dent predicts the Dow's crash will play out over several years, he sees clear and present danger in gold, silver, oil and other commodities. "All investors should lighten up on or sell oil, silver, and gold as the U.S. dollar looks like it has bottomed and should rise ahead," he writes in the March issue of HS Dent Forecast.

In the accompanying video, Dent further explains his thinking for why commodities will stumble ahead of stocks, which is the opposite of what happened in 2007-08. In sum, he believes efforts by global central bankers to fight inflation — with the notable exception of the Fed -- will hurt growth in emerging markets as well as demand for many commodities.

As for the Fed, they are "checkmated," Dent says, suggesting the Ben Bernanke & Co. are damned if they do QE3 -- because the bond market will freak out -- and damned if they don't -- because the economy and financial markets are so dependent on easy money.

have to give Dent's call from 3/31 a little credit , his thesis is coming to pass...he was just a little early by a few weeks on the commodities , interesting that in this case the commodities tank first then stocks, the opposite of 2008 ...which is just how this has played out so far .

 

[Mountain]

have to give Dent's call from 3/31 a little credit , his thesis is coming to pass...he was just a little early by a few weeks on the commodities , interesting that in this case the commodities tank first then stocks, the opposite of 2008 ...which is just how this has played out so far .

I read Dent like well over 10 years ago. He predicted DOW like 30,000 based on his generation/birth wave hypothesis. Interesting to see his name popping up again. His DOW peak number was never close. Maybe he's learned a thing or two since then? Still his work is interesting. So he's saying maybe DOW 13,200? Nasty drop on the NASDAQ to it's 50 MA over 2 days. I think he's wrong...again...but seems closer this time. Would bet with Bill Gross instead...and he's not holding any dollar denominated assets at this point from what I understand.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Market tanked on higher volume which is pretty much what Madrus said was gonna happen, the market rolling over, and some of what Gramps has said with QE2 ending soon just supports that even more. Silver struggling and seems to be trying to find a bottom.

If we're rolling over now, makes you wonder what is going to happen when the FED's liquidity really stops on June 30 and isn't just beginning to get priced in.


Here's the catch 22 I've been talking about for a while.

As for the Fed, they are "checkmated," Dent says, suggesting the Ben Bernanke & Co. are damned if they do QE3 -- because the bond market will freak out -- and damned if they don't -- because the economy and financial markets are so dependent on easy money.

My estimate has been that the markets will have a tough time dealing with a potential QEIII event. It's the point that the wider markets will realize the only option the US has anymore is to permanently monetize debt and the economy. The party kind of starts to wind down at that point. It's capitulation.

This isn't the first time the bankers have created the illusion of prosperity. This time the risk is much more systemic though. A globally systemic epic fail.

 

[Mountain]

If we're rolling over now, makes you wonder what is going to happen when the FED's liquidity really stops on June 30 and isn't just beginning to get priced in.

I dunno if it's rolling over now but would agree with Madrus that's it's gonna happen soon. Not healthy activity in the last few weeks. Markets usually price stuff in early as the big $ sells out to the suckers holding onto the dream and by the time they realize what's happening it's too late. I said rolling over in a previous post but at the least looks like it's topping to me.

Anyway...I'd listen to Gramps before I would Harry Dent...lol. Some of the underlying currents that have been discussed in this thread only being confirmed by experts like Dent . I like Dent and seems he's gotten better. At some point there was a divergence in his thesis and reality. That's when he lost me.

 

[Mountain]

All good things must eventually come to an end. The bull run that doubled the S&P 500 off its March 2009 bottom may be running out of gas, says Mark Arbeter, Standard & Poor's chief technical strategist. He points to the collapse in commodities, underperformance in the faster-growing emerging markets and weakness in discretionary stocks juxtaposed with a possible bottoming in the U.S. dollar, a rally in bond prices and strength in defensive sectors. These signs "suggest that the market may be tracing out a significant top," Arbeter wrote in his weekly Technical Commentary released on Tuesday.



The SPDR S&P 500's (SPY) breakout to a new multiyear high earlier this month has failed and it has undercut prior support at 133. The next levels of price support lie at 129 and 125, down 3% and 6% from Tuesday's close at 133.17.

The chart pattern looks similar to the market peak in 2007, which also ended with a failed breakout, says Arbeter. He expects the benchmark to drop 15% to 20% or more with weakness continuing into 2012.

Highflying commodity funds of late have succumbed to gravity. United States Oil Fund (USO) has fallen 15% from a 2 1/2-year high and is now trading near its 200-day average. Arbeter believes it could drop 8% before finding price support.

Last year's leader, iPath DJ UBS Cotton ETN (BAL), has cratered 26% from its March peak. IPath Sugar ETN (SGG) has melted 32% from its February high and has been trading below its 200-day average since mid-April. That's very bearish as the largest price declines often occur below the 200-day average.

Precious Metals
IShares Silver Trust (SLV), which practically doubled between late January and April, has plunged 31% from its peak. It could drop 40% from Tuesday's close at 33 before the correction ends, Arbeter says.

SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is the only commodity ETF that hasn't broken below its key 50-day moving average. It could fall to the 125-130 range, down 10% to 13% from Tuesday's close at 144.74.

Meanwhile lower-risk, defensive sector ETFs — SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP), SPDR Health Care (XLV) and SPDR Utilities (XLU) — all ticked up to new highs Tuesday. They've gained 9% to 15% year to date.

Cyclical sectors have lost their lead. SPDR Energy (XLE) was leading the market up until two weeks ago and was up 19% for the year. Its year-to-date gain has been cut to 7% and it's fallen below its 50-day moving average.

SPDR Basic Materials (XLB) has lost 1% year to date after being ahead as much as 7.5% at its April peak. The sector that led the way out of the bear market, SPDR Technology (XLK), was the first to top in February. It's ahead 3.5% year-to-date.

Basically Madrus said that recently...market ready to roll over and I said topping. Lots of selling at the top here. I'm kind of wondering if we'll see an island reversal at the top here with a nice gap lower to really start things off? Technically still in an uptrend though.

 

[SpasticGramps]

This is the interesting trade I was talking about. What is the dollar going to do when QEII ends? With such projected dollar weakness I think commodities may trade up. The fact that an insolvent Euro is kicking the dollars ass is pretty telling of our situation IMO.

Goldman Downgrades The USD

And just as everyone was starting to bet on the great USD renaissance, here comes Thomas Stolper to spoil the party, by not only refusing to close out his EURUSD trade reco after losing 800 pips in two weeks (and still being profitable), but by actually doubling down: "We have changed our forecasts to project more Dollar weakness." The reason is that the US apparently has a thing called a massive trade deficit that has to be normalized: "Since the last revisions to our forecasts, the Dollar decline has roughly tracked the expected path. Large structural imbalances in the US are highlighted by weakness in the tradable goods sector.The outlook for monetary policy differentials and BBoP trends remains USD-negative. Dollar weakness is common during periods with slowing GLI momentum." The bottom line: "We now see EUR/$ at 1.45, 1.50 and 1.55 in 3, 6 and 12 months, and $/JPY at 82, 82 and 86." Oddly enough, there is no mention of the real reason to position for a USD plunge. (Hint: Hewlett Packard). On the other hand, this may be the time to go balls to the wall long the USD, as it appears that Goldman is doing another USD fundraising campaign courtesy of its clients. Oh, and speaking of Goldman's clients, it's best to baffle them with bullshit. Here is Goldman's Jim O'Neill with a blurb from his Sunday note on why China is going down (among other things): "it seems to me that a bigger risk premia is still necessary for the Euro. I can’t see how it can remain at about 1.40." Yes. From Sunday. If your head didn't go boom yet, that's ok. It will soon enough. And way to cover your bases there Goldman...

From Goldman:

-We have changed our forecasts to project more Dollar weakness.
-Since the last revisions to our forecasts, the Dollar decline has roughly tracked the expected path.
-Large structural imbalances in the US are highlighted by weakness in the tradable goods sector.
-The outlook for monetary policy differentials and BBoP trends remains USD-negative.
-Dollar weakness is common during periods with slowing GLI momentum.
-B]We now see EUR/$ at 1.45, 1.50 and 1.55 in 3, 6 and 12 months, and $/JPY at 82, 82 and 86.[/B]

Full report from Goldman Sachs in the report. It's quite the read.

Inflation isn't going to go away.

 

[Mountain]

There's still some strength and even many chip stocks are forming pretty solid bases getting ready to take off...potentially. I agree inflation isn't going away. I'm mainly just sitting on the sidelines and watching now.

 

[SpasticGramps]

If the dollar weakens I would expect stocks and commodities to rally. I think the market is in kind of a twilight zone. Such unchartered waters we wonder in. No one seems to know how to trade the end of QEII or begin pricing in a potential QEIII.

 

[RetroGrow]

I downgrade Goldman to "sleazebags". Hard to believe these big banks and hedgefunds are in the business of ripping people off, and it's perfectly legal and apparently, "acceptable". Our whole system and country has gone nuts. The little guy is taken advantage of at every turn.

 

[Greenstar420]

I know pretty much nothing about trading stocks, but penny stocks sound interesting if they show promise. I was going to invest in a few last year that have actually gone up 300%! Damn wish I would have put a few grand into that. one stock was called Medical marijuana Inc. , the other was called Cannabis science Inc. and the last of the bunch was called Cannabis medical solutions Inc. hopefully one of you wise investors can make that work for ya

 

[SpasticGramps]

I downgrade Goldman to "sleazebags".

LOL. No doubt. Sleazebags, gangsters, tyrants, shitheads.

There was actually 400 people protesting outside of JP Moron the other day in Ohio. I think 8 were arrested. Hopefully this grows. A few bricks through their windows wouldn't hurt either.

 

[Madrus Rose]

LNKD ipo ...whoosh!

 

[Zen Master]

LNKD ipo ...whoosh!

yeah wow.

I made a paper account just for shits n giggles. playing around with silver. so far so good.

 

[SpasticGramps]

LNKD ipo ...whoosh!

That was a crazy ass IPO. This is going to be huge for setting precedent for social media IPO valuations going into the future.

LNKD Bubble Update: $100 Passed... Make That $107.... $108...$110....$115...$117...$122...$115...$112 ZeroHedge

It seems investors are doing their best to recreate the entire 1998-2000 bubble in the span of one trading day. After opening at $83, LNKD has just passed $100. The question is will the bubble pop today or take a few more trading days? And yes, at current count the P/E is over 1,200x.

11:40 EDT: The stock just moved from $100 to $107......

11:43 EDT: $108....

11:45 EDT: $110...

11:46 EDT: $115

11:47 EDT: $118

11:48 EDT: $122

11:49 EDT: $113

etc.

Melt Up:

Then down:

Some people made a lot of money and some people got hosed.