Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

[1G12]

Siberian heatwave: Wildfires rage in Arctic, sea ice melts

Siberian heatwave: Wildfires rage in Arctic, sea ice melts

The evidence just keeps piling up......


GENEVA (AP) — The U.N. weather agency warned Friday that average temperatures in Siberia were 10 degrees Celsius (18 Fahrenheit) above average last month, a spate of exceptional heat that has fanned devastating fires in the Arctic Circle and contributed to a rapid depletion in ice sea off Russia's Arctic coast.

“The Arctic is heating more than twice as fast as the global average, impacting local populations and ecosystems and with global repercussions,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement Friday.

He noted that Earth's poles influence weather conditions far away, where hundreds of millions of people live.

WMO previously cited a reading of 38 Celsius in the Russian town of Verkhoyansk on June 20, which the agency has been seeking to verify as a possible record-high temperature in the Arctic Circle. It comes as fires have swept through the region, with satellite imagery showing the breadth of the area surface.

The agency says the extended heat is linked to a large “blocking pressure system” and northward swing of the jet stream that has injected warm air into the region. But WMO also pointed to a recent study by top climate scientists who found that such a rise in heat would have been nearly impossible without human-caused climate change.

WMO said information collected by the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center and the U.S. National Ice Center showed the Siberian heat wave had “accelerated the ice retreat along the Arctic Russian coast, in particular since late June, leading to very low sea ice extent in the Laptev and Barents Seas.”

 

[trichrider]

Russia Delivers First Arctic Oil To Key Ally China

by Tyler Durden
Fri, 07/24/2020 - 03:30

Ensuring a leading position in the exploration and development of the Arctic’s huge gas deposits has long been a key part of President Vladimir Putin’s overall vision to project the power of his new Russia. Not only has it allowed Russia to dramatically increase its liquefied natural gas (LNG) output – finally in line with Russia’s status as an oil and gas superpower, as Putin sees it – but it has also allowed Russia to become the key gas supplier to China in the future. With Russia’s presence in the Arctic gas sector now extremely substantial, it was only natural to expect a corollary roll-out of development of the oil sector, and this is precisely what is now underway.

Last week saw Russia’s Gazprom Neft, the country’s third biggest oil company by output and the oil arm of state gas giant Gazprom, ship its first cargo of oil produced in the Arctic to China via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This shipment East adds to its existing Western exports via the NSR to Europe. According to Gazprom Neft, it took 47 days to deliver a full cargo of 144,000 tonnes of sweet, light Novy Port oil from the Yamal peninsula developments to the Chinese port of Yantai on the Bohai Sea, from Russia's north-western city of Murmansk. “Successful experience in the sale of Arctic oil in the European market and an in-depth insight of Asia-Pacific markets allow Gazprom Neft to offer Novy Port oil with a unique year-round logistics scheme to Asian partners,” said Gazprom Neft’s deputy director general for logistics, processing and sales, Anatoly Cherner, last week.
The NSR saw its first trial voyage (from the Far-Eastern Russian port of Vladivostok via the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, to St Petersburg) by a large-sized and strengthened container ship only as recently as August 2018. Since then, its development as a key transport route for Russian hydrocarbons to the East has run alongside the earlier developments of Russia’s number two gas producer (after Gazprom), Novatek, in its Yamal-centred LNG projects, that now uses it to deliver cargoes both East and West. After the very slick management at Novatek had delivered each stage of its Yamal Peninsular (Yamal LNG) project on budget and on time - despite the full weight of U.S. sanctions being imposed on Russia in 2014 as a result of its annexation of Crimea – until the delay to the fourth train announced last year, Gazprom and Gazprom Neft were bound to follow.
Much more is to come from Gazprom Neft, which started exporting oil produced in Russia’s Arctic exploration and development region in 2013, and which has delivered at least 40 million tons of oil – including both the ARCO (Prirazlomnoye field) and Novy Port (Novoportovskoye field) blends – to various European countries since then. In broad terms, the Novy Port oil field is one of the largest oil and gas condensate fields in the Russian Arctic, with at least 250 million tons (around 1.8 billion barrels) of reserves. Using a now proven system developed alongside Novatek – including the Prirazlomnaya oil production platform, the Arctic Gates oil terminal in the Gulf of Ob, a reinforced ice-class tanker fleet, including LNG vessels, escort icebreakers and an offshore oil shipment terminal in Murmansk - Gazprom Neft says that it can transport oil year-round (at minimal cost) to Europe.
To the East, there are more natural constraints, as very thick ice makes deliveries outside the summer period extremely difficult for much of the time, and the costs higher than those to Europe. Previously, the Novy Port oil grade shipped last week via the NSR to China - understood by OilPrice.com to have gone to state refiner, the China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina) – had not been exported East by Russia, but rather directed towards Europe.
However, the enormous hit to the European refining sector caused demand to drop away, whilst demand in China dipped by a much degree and recovered fully much more quickly.

“Although Gazprom Neft has historically sent ESPO crude to China via the pipeline, this new capability will be useful to other Russian companies for oil as well, not just Novatek for LNG,” a senior oil and gas analyst in Moscow told OilPrice.com last week.
​

Russia’s number two oil company, Lukoil, also conducted a test crude oil delivery last September, featuring its Varandey blend. This has very similar specifications to the Novy Port blend, with the latter having an API gravity of 35 degrees and a 0.1 per cent sulphur content, whilst Varandey has an API gravity of 35-37 degrees and a sulphur content of around 0.5 per cent.
At the same time as opening up new export routes for its oil, Gazprom Neft is working towards dramatically increasing the oil volumes from the Arctic that it can offer to the East. In 2017, it acquired the development rights to the Tazovskoye and Severo-Samburgskoye fields in the Yamalo-Nenets region, with the subsoil usage rights to the Tazovskoye block running until 2025, and those to the Severo-Samburgskoye block until 2027. The Tazovskoye field is estimated to have recoverable oil reserves of at least 72 million tonnes, condensate reserves of 4.6 million tonnes, and non-associated gas reserves of at least 183.3 billion cubic metres. The Severo-Samburgksoye block’s estimated oil reserves are even higher, at 90.5 million tonnes. This followed the commissioning only a year before of the huge Novoportskoye oil and gas field (estimated recoverable reserves of more than 250 million tonnes of crude and condensate, as well as more than 320 billion cubic metres of gas) and the Vostochno-Messoyakhskoye oil and gas field (recoverable reserves of more than 470 million tonnes of oil and gas condensate, and 188 billion cubic metres of gas).

 

[St. Phatty]

The evidence just keeps piling up......

any predictions for California fire season ?

so far it's not too bad.

but i can't help but wonder, if the fire weather they observed in the Redding Fire in July 2018, will come back.

basically they observed serious fire-spreading 20 mile an hour winds at the edges of the fire, which caused it to spread everywhere there was fuel.

They had to back off about 20 miles to build their fire line.

50 miles away from the fire, there was no wind. it was a calm day.

it was 105+ degrees F.

they're getting towards similar temperatures right now.

 

[igrowone]

la nina watch just issued
that could have some increased moisture on the west coast
but that's a winter effect

 

[kickarse]

Righto I've Changed me mind

Wo Men ruined (insert something)?????

It was Computers I reckon,people stopped using their brains.

 

[trichrider]

Study: Mediterranean Sea Was 3.6°F Hotter at Time of the Roman Empire

Thomas D. Williams, Ph.D
24 Jul 2020477


The Mediterranean Sea was considerably warmer during the period of the Roman Empire 2000 years ago than it is today, according to a new study published in Scientific Reports.


The period of the Roman Empire, which ran from 27 BC to 476 AD, coincided with warmest period of the last 2,000 years in the Mediterranean, found the 8-member international team of researchers led by Giulia Margaritelli.


Employing ratios of magnesium to calcite taken from skeletonized amoebas in marine sediments, an indicator of sea water temperatures, the researchers determined that the Roman Period (1 AD – 500 AD) was the warmest of the last 2 millennia, “about 2?°C warmer than average values for the late centuries for the Sicily and Western Mediterranean regions.”


Moreover, the study found that “this pronounced warming during the Roman Period is almost consistent with other marine records from Atlantic Ocean and with the continental anomaly reconstruction from Europe,” a climate phase that “corresponds to the so-called ‘Roman Climatic Optimum’ characterized by prosperity and expansion of the empire.”


“For the first time, we can state the Roman period was the warmest period of time of the last 2,000 years, and these conditions lasted for 500 years,” said team member Professor Isabel Cacho of the Department of Earth and Ocean Dynamics, University of Barcelona.
“After the Roman Period a general cooling trend developed in the region with several minor oscillations,” the scholars note, while hypothesizing a “potential link between this Roman Climatic Optimum and the expansion and subsequent decline of the Roman Empire.”


The study purports to offer “critical information to identify past interactions between climate changes and evolution of human societies and their adaptive strategies.”


Last month, another study proposed that a massive volcanic eruption in Alaska 40 years before Christ’s birth sparked a global climate shock in Europe that led to the fall of the Roman Republic and the subsequent rise of the Roman Empire.
The fall of the Roman Republic and rise of the Roman Empire “occurred during an extreme cold period resulting from a massive eruption of Alaska’s Okmok volcano early in 43 BC,” the study declared.


Climate proxies and written documents indicate that a power struggle in Rome “occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region,” the researchers note, adding that “volcanic fallout records” show that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 years occurred in early 43 BC and that 43 and 42 BC “were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades.”


Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period

• G. Margaritelli,
• I. Cacho,
• A. Català,
• M. Barra,
• L. G. Bellucci,
• C. Lubritto,
• R. Rettori &
• F. Lirer

Scientific Reports volume 10, Article number: 10431 (2020) Cite this article

Abstract

Reconstruction of last millennia Sea Surface Temperature (SST) evolution is challenging due to the difficulty retrieving good resolution marine records and to the several uncertainties in the available proxy tools. In this regard, the Roman Period (1 CE to 500 CE) was particularly relevant in the socio-cultural development of the Mediterranean region while its climatic characteristics remain uncertain. Here we present a new SST reconstruction from the Sicily Channel based in Mg/Ca ratios measured on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber. This new record is framed in the context of other previously published Mediterranean SST records from the Alboran Sea, Minorca Basin and Aegean Sea and also compared to a north Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The most solid image that emerges of this trans-Mediterranean comparison is the persistent regional occurrence of a distinct warm phase during the Roman Period. This record comparison consistently shows the Roman as the warmest period of the last 2 kyr, about 2?°C warmer than average values for the late centuries for the Sicily and Western Mediterranean regions. After the Roman Period a general cooling trend developed in the region with several minor oscillations. We hypothesis the potential link between this Roman Climatic Optimum and the expansion and subsequent decline of the Roman Empire.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67281-2

 

[1G12]

Highest-ever temperature recorded in Norwegian Arctic archipelago

Highest-ever temperature recorded in Norwegian Arctic archipelago

Oslo (AFP) - Norway's Arctic archipelago Svalbard on Saturday recorded its highest-ever temperature, the country's meteorological institute reported.

According to scientific study, global warming in the Arctic is happening twice as fast as for the rest of the planet.

For the second day in a row, the archipelago registered 21.2 degrees Celsius (70.2 Fahrenheit) in the afternoon, just under the 21.3 degrees recorded in 1979, meteorologist Kristen Gislefoss told AFP.

Later in the afternoon however, at around 6:00 pm local time, it recorded 21.7 degrees, setting a new all-time record.

The island group, dominated by Spitzbergen the only inhabited isle in the northern Norway archipelago, sits 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from the North Pole.

The relative heatwave, expected to last until Monday, is a huge spike of normal temperatures in July, the hottest month in the Arctic,

The Svalbard islands would normally expect to be seeing temperatures of 5-8 degrees Celsius at this time of year.

The region has seen temperatures five degrees above normal since January, peaking at 38 degrees in Siberia in mid-July, just beyond the Arctic Circle.

According to a recent report "The Svalbard climate in 2100," the average temperatures for the archipelago between 2070 and 2100 will rise by 7-10 degrees, due to the levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

Changes are already visible. From 1971 to 2017 between three and five degrees of warming have been observed, with the biggest rises in the winter, according to the report.

Svalbard, known for its polar bear population, houses both a coal mine, digging out the most global warming of all energy sources, and a "doomsday' seed vault which has since 2008 collected stocks of the world's agricultural bounty in case of global catastrophe

The vault required 20 million euros ($23.3 million) worth of work after the infiltration of water due to thawing permafrost in 2016.

 

[kickarse]

How does Co2 affect the climate ?

how much does a 20%-40% -----100% rise in Co2 change the weather/climate ??
Thought if I'm going to be a believer, I probably should learn about what I'm believing in

Being a "denier" is easy, a quick bit of research, a look out the window, and be over 50 years old

 

[St. Phatty]

https://www.wabi.tv/2020/07/26/maine-forest-rangers-report-unprecedented-number-of-wildfires/

and now ... Maine ?!

 

[trichrider]

https://www.wabi.tv/2020/07/26/maine-forest-rangers-report-unprecedented-number-of-wildfires/

and now ... Maine ?!

uh. provide the correlation/causation between wildfires and CO2/temperature that you keep implying.


can you be sure that that incident isn't arson? arson is suspected in many wildfires. didn't PG&E just settle a huge civil suit because of the socal fires?...so it isn't just arson either.

 

[St. Phatty]

North Atlantic, coast of Eastern US, approaching hot tub temps.

86 degrees F off the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina ...

what happens when a tropical storm moves across an open area of water above 80 F -
it gains strength.

this is the set-up for an "interesting situation".

 

[trichrider]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720347859


Variability of global mean annual temperature is significantly influenced by the rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillations

Author links open overlay panelZbigniew W.KundzewiczaIwonaPi?skwara



DemetrisKoutsoyiannisb


https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141256Get rights and content
Highlights

•The rhythm of ocean-atmosphere oscillation influences global temperature.
•Atmosphere-ocean interplay explains deviations of global temperature from trend.
•Correlation with ENSO and AMO indices explains 70% of global temperature variability.


Abstract

While global warming has been evolving over several decades, in particular years there have been considerable deviations of global temperature from the underlying trend. These could be explained by climate variability patterns and, in particular, by the major interplays of atmospheric and oceanic processes that generate variations in the global climatic system. Here we show, in a simple and straightforward way, that a rhythm of the major ocean-atmosphere oscillations, such as the ENSO and IPO in the Pacific as well as the AMO in the Atlantic, is indeed meaningfully influencing the global mean annual temperature. We construct time series of residuals of the global temperature from the medium-term (5-year) running averages and show that these largely follow the rhythm of residuals of three basic ocean-atmosphere oscillation modes (ENSO, IPO and AMO) from the 5-year running averages. We find meaningful correlations between analyzed climate variability and deviations of global mean annual temperature residuals that are robust across various datasets and assumptions and explain over 70% of the annual temperature variability in terms of residuals from medium-term averages.


Graphical abstract

 

[armedoldhippy]

uh. provide the correlation/causation between wildfires and CO2/temperature that you keep implying.


can you be sure that that incident isn't arson? arson is suspected in many wildfires. didn't PG&E just settle a huge civil suit because of the socal fires?...so it isn't just arson either.

most folks agree that the CAUSE of the fire is irrelevant, but that the severity of it can be affected by the temps/dryness. do you disagree with this? the moisture content of fuel has MUCH to do with fires...and temps have MUCH to do with moisture content...

 

[trichrider]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]but that the severity of it can be affected by the temps/dryness. do you disagree with this? [/FONT]


no i don't disagree.
higher temperature air contains more humidity tho' too.
...and in fact the cause absolutely does have relevancy.

 

[St. Phatty]

what they observe about tropical storms blowing across hotter water,

they tend to become Hurricanes.

if this observation holds true Friday to Monday, the storm will seem to be increasing in strength as it goes across the waters off Georgia South Carolina & North Carolina.


TRANSLATION: surfers in Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, are waxing their boards.

well maybe that's a little too close. surfers in Virginia & Jersey & New York are waxing their boards.

surfers in Hatteras are buying plywood.

 

[armedoldhippy]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]but that the severity of it can be affected by the temps/dryness. do you disagree with this? [/FONT]


no i don't disagree.
higher temperature air contains more humidity tho' too.

have you heard of Death Valley? monsoons there, i suppose...

 

[kickarse]

most folks agree that the CAUSE of the fire is irrelevant, but that the severity of it can be affected by the temps/dryness. do you disagree with this? the moisture content of fuel has MUCH to do with fires...and temps have MUCH to do with moisture content...

Have you asked them ??

 

[trichrider]

yeah hippy i heard.
lived but 150 miles from there.
how many wildfires have there been there?

is it getting hotter there?


i've witnessed severe flooding in las vegas several times over my time there, and death valley floods when it rains enough.


...and christ on a cracker, the humidity there is nil...currently 6%, so what is your point?


are you suggesting humidity controls wildfire?

 

[kickarse]

have you heard of Death Valley? monsoons there, i suppose...

Now your an expert on "man fucked up and we all going to die again"

You probably should stick to the "white" bashing threads
or the BLM shit threads

unless you can contribute something ??

:friends:

 

[kickarse]

We get 16c two days in a row in winter
glad I'm a believer now, its bit hard not to be, with temps like that in winter