Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

[hard rain]

Meanwhile in Australia the fires are out. Australia's most southern Island state, Tasmania, where water temperatures have risen rapidly and are threatening kelp forests and related ecosystems. It's a big article so I won't paste it all.
Just a couple of excerts;

"Climate change had arrived at this island near the bottom of the world, and the giant kelp that flourished in its cold waters was among the first things to go.

Over recent decades, the rate of ocean warming off Tasmania, Australia’s southernmost state and a gateway to the South Pole, has climbed to nearly four times the global average, oceanographers say.

More than 95 percent of the giant kelp — a living high-rise of 30-foot stalks that served as a habitat for some of the rarest marine creatures in the world — died.

Giant kelp had stretched the length of Tasmania’s rocky east coast throughout recorded history. Now it clings to a tiny patch near Southport, the island’s southern tip, where the water is colder."
...
"A stretch of the Tasman Sea right along Tasmania’s eastern coast has already warmed by just a fraction below 2 degrees Celsius, according to ocean temperature data from the Hadley Center, the U.K. government research agency on climate change."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/climate-change-tasmania/

And another article:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...st-warming-four-times-global-average/11889628

 

[moose eater]

Once again, it's about cumulative averages; if the winter temps through a decade warm by 10-20 degrees, and the summer temps in the Interior cool by 3-5 degrees (just as examples), was there a net gain or loss in heat in the atmosphere and on the land?

As posted months ago, there are glaciers here that have been in place for who-knows-how-long, such as the one that USED to feed Kluane Lake in the Yukon Territory.

It also fed another lake. it was the primary inlet water for Kluane Lake, which is not a small lake, running approximately 40 miles from south end to north end.

Islands there are now peninsulas, shallow bays are now grasslands in more than a few cases, the water that feeds the place from what was the primary source is not there any longer. Mountain run-off in the spring and summer will not sustain the lake, as evaporation and the output from the lake, via streams/rivers, exceeds the input.

This lake was used as recreation, transportation, commercial and subsistence food (lake trout, whitefish, burbot, etc.). Not to mention the recently marketed beach-front lots, which are not so much beach front any more; the deal is done, so no refunds there.

And yet they had a winter with snow and ice in that area this year, last year, and the one before that..

The averages throughout the year define warming or cooling trends. They (and we) are warming.

We could address the later and later freeze-up on lakes where I lived nearby in the 70s in the Yukon, some of them not freezing until into mid-December now. Or the obscenely thin ice over the last numerous years, even during later winter, when ice OUGHT to be its thickest, yet friends of friends found themselves on 3 inches one evening a few years back (Marsh Lake; the headwaters of the mighty Yukon River), where there'd typically been 3 feet that time of year.

Overall year-round temperature averages matter, and are, in part, causal factors in the loss of ice, permafrost, glaciers and related water supplies, etc.

 

[kickarse]

So what ya saying is, that its gotten colder in summer and the ice is not melting as much as it used to, and its warming up, but the ice isn't melting anymore because its to cold ?


Or have the glaciers all pissed off I.E melted away because of the less cold winters, or less cold summers ??

 

[mean mr.mustard]

And methane is great too.

Do you work for an oil company?

 

[kickarse]

lol of cause I do, and on the weekends I work at a brown coal mine

 

[mean mr.mustard]

Well I can see you have endorsed your vested interest

 

[moose eater]

So what ya saying is, that its gotten colder in summer and the ice is not melting as much as it used to, and its warming up, but the ice isn't melting anymore because its to cold ?

Or have the glaciers all pissed off I.E melted away because of the less cold winters, or less cold summers ??

What I'm saying is that the summers (once quite hot and sunny in the Interior where I am, at times, 30-40 years ago, reaching up near mid-90s to almost 100 f. above 0) have cooled a bit, and become more humid or wet, where we're technically classified, at least in the past, as an 'Arctic Desert'.

Meanwhile, we've had Aprils (x 2 or 3 over the last 3-4 years) where we've reached into the 80s above 0 f. in early to mid-April!!

Our winters in the Interior have warmed considerably over the last 30 years, with the current 'blue trough' we've seen this year now being, more or less, an anomaly, and still not approaching the extreme temps of years ago, as previously mentioned..

Overall we've warmed much more than we've cooled. Thus, the permafrost is melting in some places that were once more or less stable tundra, glaciers are shrinking (in the case of the one feeding Kluane Lake, sufficiently to no longer send H2O into one of the two LARGE lakes it maintained).

With melting permafrost, there's increased 'frost-heaves', sinking, or pot-holing in highways and roads built on less stable ground, and typically an increase in methane and CO2 into the atmosphere. (*As an aside, some have contemplated the possibility of the presence <and release?> of frozen bacteria/organisms in places that may have been suspended in time, since years ago.

Encroaching sea level is causing some villages on the coast to relocate. Imagine the cost of moving an entire village; homes/cabins, school, etc.

In somewhat of a summary, not ALL changes are linear.

And factor in our winter here in the Interior being about half the year; the warmer winters take on a greater significance in their weight in the equation.

Humans tend to think in linear terms. Nature doesn't always subscribe to such concepts..

 

[TychoMonolyth]

The corn belt could be a desert and they'd still deny global warming.

 

[St. Phatty]

One ACCURATE call on rain in Southern Oregon.

Looks like old weather models, based on time period 1900 to 2019 - aren't working.

They predicted rain for us about 20 times. Last night was the first night that gave us a 1/10 inch of rain.

Judging by all the animals' feeding dishes.

Fortunately that's enough to water baby plants for a few days so it saves me a watering run.

I STILL kind of wish they'd use silver iodide. The clouds are there, sh-t let us have a 1/4 inch at least.

 

[mean mr.mustard]

Just rake.

The stable genius in his great and unmatched wisdom knows that raking is all you need.

 

[moose eater]

One ACCURATE call on rain in Southern Oregon.

Looks like old weather models, based on time period 1900 to 2019 - aren't working.

They predicted rain for us about 20 times. Last night was the first night that gave us a 1/10 inch of rain.

Judging by all the animals' feeding dishes.

Fortunately that's enough to water baby plants for a few days so it saves me a watering run.

I STILL kind of wish they'd use silver iodide. The clouds are there, sh-t let us have a 1/4 inch at least.

NOAA here runs 3 computer models; the closer in agreement the 3 computers are, the more confident in their forecasts. Weather forecasting has always been 2 parts luck, 2 parts art, 3 parts science, and a jigger or 2 of Ouija Board.

But I've noted a shift toward less predictable weather for them over the last 6-10 years, and imagined them pulling their hair out as the 3 systems 'argue amongst themselves.' It's given room for further criticism of the forecasts' accuracy than they'd already endured.

And the once more-or-less-reliable thermal inversions at my home, which typically had us 5 to 20 degrees warmer than the local airport in the cold of winter, have been all but a thing of the past this year; sometimes for 4-6 weeks at a time, with us being 3 to 12 or even 15 degrees colder than the airport. It was a relief the other morning (2 days ago?) when the airport temp was -33 f., and I was -18 f. (OH HAPPY DAY!!!)

I've jokingly commented about and contemplated a comedic presentation at the Borough Assembly, requesting a lower property tax evaluation, now that my 'warmer elevation' I pay what ever amount extra for, seems to have gone AWOL.

The humorous battle cry, whether re. my body breaking down, or vehicle repairs, weather changes, political quagmires, etc., has been, "I WANT MY MONEY BACK!!"

My neurosurgeon (a couple years ago, when he was seeing me for a cash rate, and losing money) failed to recognize it was an inside family joke and rhetorical in nature, and he indignantly asked, "What money??!!"

Once I had to explain it, it was no longer funny...

 

[1G12]

Earlier leaf-out warms air in the north

Earlier leaf-out warms air in the north

Abstract
Earlier leaf-out in response to climate warming has been recorded in northern temperate and boreal regions. In turn, this shift modifies climate by altering seasonal cycles of surface energy, water and carbon budgets. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model 1.2 to investigate climate feedbacks from advanced leaf-out in northern temperate and boreal vegetation. An imposed 12-day earlier leaf-out in this region, consistent with recent observations, enhances annual surface warming in the Northern Hemisphere. We identify warming hotspots in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (~0.7 °C), east and west edges of Siberia (~0.4 °C) and southeastern Tibetan Plateau (~0.3 °C). We attribute this enhanced warming to combined effects of indirect water vapour, cloud and snow-albedo radiative feedbacks through intensified poleward water vapour transport rather than direct vegetation albedo and latent heat biophysical feedbacks. With continued warming, positive feedbacks between climate and leaf phenology are likely to amplify warming in the northern high latitudes.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0713-4

 

[trichrider]

Global Green Up Slows Warming

2000 - 2018


Scientists previously established that the world is greener than it was in the early 1980s. Updated maps show that the trend has continued, and researchers say reduced global warming is among the consequences.


The map above shows where greenness increased (green) and decreased (brown) across the planet between 2000 and 2018. Specifically, it shows the trend in the “leaf area index”—the amount of leaf area relative to ground area—during the growing season. The index is computed using data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. White areas are where the land is barren, built upon, or covered with ice, wetlands, or water.


Note that the map does not show overall greenness, which is why it does not exactly match heavily forested areas like the Amazon or the Congo Basin. Instead, the map shows how greenness has changed —a phenomenon most obvious in places like China and India where agriculture has intensified and governments have made efforts to conserve and expand forests.


There is a clear greening trend in boreal and Arctic regions, a result of rising temperatures. For example, Svalbard in the high-Arctic has seen a 30 percent increase in greenness, according to Rama Nemani of NASA’s Ames Research Center, a co-author of the review paper in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. The greening was concurrent with an increase in mean summer temperature from 2.9° to 4.7° Celsius (37.2° to 40.5° Fahrenheit) between 1986 and 2015.

2081 - 2100

2000 - 2100


The paper’s authors reviewed more than 250 published articles that have used satellite data, modeling, and field observations, to understand the causes and consequences of global greening. Among the key results, the authors noted that on a global scale greening can be attributed to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Rising levels of carbon dioxide increase the rate of photosynthesis and growth in plants.


There is an interesting consequence of this global green up: as vegetation consumes some of the heat-trapping carbon dioxide it also performs evapotranspiration—a function similar to human sweating—which can have a cooling effect on the air. Scientists say that global greening since the early 1980s may have reduced global warming by as much as 0.2° to 0.25° Celsius (0.36° to 0.45° Fahrenheit). In other words, the world would be even warmer than it is if not for the surge in plant growth.


“It is ironic that the very same carbon emissions responsible for harmful changes to climate are also fertilizing plant growth,” said co-author Jarle Bjerke of the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, “which in turn is somewhat moderating global warming.”
According to climate models, the future looks even greener. The second map shows what the green-up might look like in the future based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model, under a scenario in which increases in greenhouse gases lead to almost 5° Celsius (9° Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the 21st century. Specifically, it shows the predicted change in the growing season’s “leaf area index” from 2081-2100 relative to 1981-2000. The chart below the map shows the predicted changes by latitude. Notice that high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are still expected to change the most.


“This greening and associated cooling is beneficial,” said Shilong Piao of Peking University, and lead author of the paper. “But reducing carbon emissions is still needed in order to sustain the habitability of our planet.”


https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146296/global-green-up-slows-warming

 

[trichrider]

Coldest temperature ever recorded in Greenland

January 4, 2020 by Robert

Greenland just set a new all-time record low temperature. Not only for January 2, not only for the entire month of January, not only at Summit Station, but for anywhere across the island, and for any month of the year.


Summit Camp, also known as Summit Station, is a year-round research station on the apex of the Greenland Ice Sheet. It is located some 10,500 ft (3,200 m) above sea level, and it’s data is often cited by climate alarmists claiming “Greenland Is Melting Away Before Our Very Eyes” and other such nonsense…


Adding to the list of temperature measurements those alarmists will likely ignore -or won’t even get to hear about given the mainstream media’s warm-bias- is Summit Camp’s preliminary low of -86.8F (-66C) set at 11:13 PM on January 02, 2020.


The reading, once confirmed by the DMI, will enter the books as Greenland’s coldest-ever recorded temperature-not only at Summit Camp, and not only in January, but of anywhere across the island, and of any month of the year.


From https://www.sott.net/article/426761-Greenland-just-set-a-new-all-time-record-low-temperature

 

[kickarse]

Its usually warmer today, than the cherry picked cold years they compare today's weather to

Go back to the last warm period and compare that to now,
be sweet fuck all difference I'm betting

The real temps, not the adjusted tripe they march out as the old temperature record, @BOM, NASA or whoever does the Americant temps

Global Warming means Global Warming, not warmer in some places and cooler in others, that is just normal, not "extreme" or "unprecedented" like they claim

Its still cooler than normal here

 

[trichrider]

The corn belt could be a desert and they'd still deny global warming.

my 'denial' of warming is that it is caused by CO2.
believing that it is is tantamount to homeopathy.

there are more convincing attributions i rely on.

i've some 'model' cars but they aren't real, and neither are the models used to make the claim that me or you had anything to do with adjusted temperatures.

arrogance is folly. unscientific hyperbole with biased input does not make it truth.


Edward Bernays would be profoundly proud of you...

 

[trichrider]

Its usually warmer today, than the cherry picked cold years they compare today's weather to

Go back to the last warm period and compare that to now,
be sweet fuck all difference I'm betting

The real temps, not the adjusted tripe they march out as the old temperature record, @BOM, NASA or whoever does the Americant temps

Global Warming means Global Warming, not warmer in some places and cooler in others, that is just normal, not "extreme" or "unprecedented" like they claim

Its still cooler than normal here

then there is the historical fact that the 30s were much warmer than now.
here you can find temperature and precipitation extremes for your area (US only):
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records


we should let this dead horse rot.

 

[moose eater]

Its usually warmer today, than the cherry picked cold years they compare today's weather to

Go back to the last warm period and compare that to now,
be sweet fuck all difference I'm betting

The real temps, not the adjusted tripe they march out as the old temperature record, @BOM, NASA or whoever does the Americant temps

Global Warming means Global Warming, not warmer in some places and cooler in others, that is just normal, not "extreme" or "unprecedented" like they claim

Its still cooler than normal here

If you were to find a time in history the glacier that previously fed Kluane Lake -wasn't- feeding that lake, how many thousand years might you guess that would be in the past?

Also, consider the speed with which that specific glacier receded, and there you'll find your anomaly in melt-rates.

We're talking about glaciers that have existed since before anyone, including First Nations Peoples, can remember, and many of them are receding or drying up fast enough to cause serious concern.

Doesn't seem like a normal warming cycle to me, nor will we find glass and mercury thermometer records for the last time those glaciers weren't what we've known them to be. It's probable the humanoid forms barely had mastered fire or weapons much beyond clubs or spears at those times.

The nice thing about well-known glaciers that have been studied, is there's often core sampling data available that can indicate how old the ice is, and even the winters that have passed when there was no one there to observe them.

Re. the comment re. some places being warmer, and some colder, the mention earlier of averages is pertinent. Overall, by all indications, the globe, on average, despite there being some places cooler than past, and many warmer, is that it's warming, on the whole, when calculating averages.

-------------------------------

Trich, considering the presence of elevated CO2, isn't it possibly a BIT of circumstantial evidence unto itself that the greening up, likely/possibly relative to increased CO2 levels, has led to slowing of warming? Assuming the CO2 IS related? Trees/shrubs consuming CO2, and all.

And I've got to get back on track for packing for the bush; behind the 8-ball as usual, and too goddamned tired to function without serious lists for gear and grub to work off of..

 

[kickarse]

Think you might find there are a lot of glaciers growing as well

everywhere from New Zealand to Greenland, and probably a few in the America

 

[mean mr.mustard]

Let's get a link to that