how are you figuring that production would cost the same as now under a legal environment?
don't answer that, however you are figuring it, it's wrong
-
As of today ICMag has his own Discord server. In this Discord server you can chat, talk with eachother, listen to music, share stories and pictures...and much more. Join now and let's grow together! Join ICMag Discord here! More details in this thread here: here.
Are big facilities going to put basement grower at unemployment?
- Thread starter LAMBS-BREAD
- Start date
how are you figuring that production would cost the same as now under a legal environment?
don't answer that, however you are figuring it, it's wrong
Also keep in mind it's a possible 30 billion a year industry based on consumption when it's illegal. Since there are no stats on how many will use marijuana when/if it becomes legal there is no way to know for sure how profitable it will be. If it was $35 per ounce and everyone used it (so use 330 Million since that is the approximate US Poulation) and they used it at a rate of one ounce per month (very conservative estimate) that's (35 x 330,000,000) x 12 = 138,600,000,000 or a nearly 140 Billion dollar industry at $35 per ounce. If they keep prices where they are at now there are a whole bunch of folks that will say "screw that, I'll just stick with budwieser".
To look at it another way in a recent poll for the first time in US history 50% of the population favored legalization. So lets assume that is the number of consumers and for estimation purposes lets take half of 330 million or 165 million since (35 x 165,000,000) x 12 = 69,300,000,000 at $35 per ounce it's still nearly a 70 Billion per year industry. Although they could bump it back up to 40 Billion per year with $70 ounces which would still undercut most every basement grower who sells now enough to where it's not profitable enough to keep growing.
Even if only 25% of the country enjoyed marijuana once it was legal (35 x 82,500,000) x 12 = 34,650,000,000 meaning at $35 per ounce it would still be more then a $30 Billion per year industry.
To look at it another way in a recent poll for the first time in US history 50% of the population favored legalization. So lets assume that is the number of consumers and for estimation purposes lets take half of 330 million or 165 million since (35 x 165,000,000) x 12 = 69,300,000,000 at $35 per ounce it's still nearly a 70 Billion per year industry. Although they could bump it back up to 40 Billion per year with $70 ounces which would still undercut most every basement grower who sells now enough to where it's not profitable enough to keep growing.
Even if only 25% of the country enjoyed marijuana once it was legal (35 x 82,500,000) x 12 = 34,650,000,000 meaning at $35 per ounce it would still be more then a $30 Billion per year industry.
how are you figuring that production would cost the same as now under a legal environment?
don't answer that, however you are figuring it, it's wrong
care to explain? would power companies suddenly drop their rates? because energy costs are rising.. real estate prices are going back up as well...farmland and commercial warehouses would be at a premium..
the only place i can see production costs would fall is if all the nutrient companies selling bottles for 100 bucks might have to scale back their prices if black market growers arent buying it anymore...most mass commercial operations would probably make their own nutrients..
but EVERYTHING else costs the same or more...rent, electricity, workers wage, plus all the new taxes they will implement on legalized marijuana businesses..
hempkat= interesting analysis of the numbers.....im sure the big companies are researching the price points....
V
Veg N Out
I voted no
well, for one, if and when legalized enough for big money to jump in, indoor growing will become a thing of the past. so no electricity bills for growers for starters. no equipment needed, meaning: bulbs, cables, a/c, et all electrical equipment.
think of tobacco, do you see a indoor tobacco farms anywhere? or any indoor farms at all of anything?
people living in climates where outdoor is not possible or not the best will rely on imported herb, comming from outdoor farms in ideal locations.
tropical and sub-tropical latitudes can pump out three harvests a year easily, with very low costs.
even in latitudes where you can only pump out one harvest, the costs of doing so at a large scale would be less than the costs of each harvest in a big indoor warehouse.
that's why if and when legal, the cost will drop.
skull and roses
Member
I think a large part of the customer base will demand an indoor product. A lot of people prefer a perfectly grown finely tuned indoor product over outdoor. There is a perfect climate in NorCal and some super good growers in full sun that are producing a product that big business could not surpass and even with that expert grown indoor is more expensive and considered better by a lot of people. There's no way indoor goes away. It's turned into much more than just being stealth.
outdoor grown pot can look just as pretty as indoor and smoke twice as good.
its all how. and then theres the "where" part too...
greenhouses with supplemental lighting are going to be where its at.
the people who think they "prefer" indoor are the same folks that think they can tell expertly organicly grown from expertly liquid salt grown. people arent as smart as they think. hahahaha. I call shennanigans.
the sun does something adds something that no amount of light or different bulb spectrums can achieve.
indoor wont go away... some locations dont have any ability environmentally to produce year round with a greenhouse. i would think the extra power costs would influence a higher ticket for the end user.
its all how. and then theres the "where" part too...
greenhouses with supplemental lighting are going to be where its at.
the people who think they "prefer" indoor are the same folks that think they can tell expertly organicly grown from expertly liquid salt grown. people arent as smart as they think. hahahaha. I call shennanigans.
the sun does something adds something that no amount of light or different bulb spectrums can achieve.
indoor wont go away... some locations dont have any ability environmentally to produce year round with a greenhouse. i would think the extra power costs would influence a higher ticket for the end user.
A lawmaker in Hawaii has introduced a pot legalization bill....
http://dailycaller.com/2013/01/21/hawaiian-lawmaker-introduces-pot-legalization-bill/
I know of some land where a lot of pot could grow...
change some economics...
hahahahahaha
Attachments
Well those are just rough numbers for the sake of discussion, there's alot of variables that could dramatically affect things. One being that if it were legal rather then smoking alot of people might rather ingest it since the practice of smoking anything has pretty much become understood as bad. If we go the route of ingestion then the price point of weed would have to come down much steeper because you need more weed per unit of consumption then doing a bong rip or toking on a joint or pipe.
You have to keep in mind that companies are well aware (by the current economy) that consumers are stretched to the limit. Companies that once flourished when people had lots of disposable income because the economy was strong and unemployment low, are now failing or struggling to get by using ways to offer their customers cheaper options just to keep them coming back. Marijuana wouldn't do well on the open market with ounces costing hundreds of dollars without the threat of prison supplying the reason why it costs so much. $35 an ounce brings it pretty comparable to tobacco which is about where it needs to be at least to start. Once they've built a solid market of people really digging being able to smoke weed without the fear of their lives being destroyed then maybe you'll see prices climb. Depends on how much competition arises. Keep in mind once we go legal many other places will too and then you'll have to compete on a global scale which will bring prices down further when third world countries start exploiting a natural resource way more and more openly then they do already.
What I figure corporations will research more is what strain or combinations of strains per crop will give them the best yields to supplie medicinal needs, recreational needs, hemp needs, etc. So they can achieve the biggest bang for the buck per crop with the least amount of waste. You're thinking way too small if you're thinking in terms of warehouses though. They're going to have hundreds of acres of crops going, minimum. You're not going to pull that off in any sane feasible way with indoor setups. If their is a connoisseur market that demands indoor that'll be handled by smaller companies that grow from existing commercial growers already trying to work within the existing market.
Alot of this depends though not only on when it will happen but how it will happen. The scenario that I feel would favor big corporations the most is if most places just take the more cautious path of only legalizing medical use. But leave recreational illegal for now. That would greatly restrict the number of users and that would uthe big corporations more time to prepare for a future recreational market. If however by some miracle of fate it just gets totally legalized overnight, the average hobbyist grower could concievably do well for a good while because they'll have a head start and so it'll pretty much be a free for all on who can best evolve with the rising demand. No way at first would demand be able to be kept unless the corporations actually start producing before it's legal which doesn't seem likely. So they'll need the little guys to keep doing their thing for a little bit at least. Eventually though it'll be survival of the fittest.
I've read most of this thread, and from what I see nobody has posted this information, but my apologies if it has. This is quoted from the WA state liquor control board website:
And a producer and processor CAN be one individual holding each license simultaneously. About $2700/lb...
Not much of a difference in price in the state of WA when it comes to regulated vs. medicinial vs. black market. It's just going to be a matter of overhead, depending on the nature of rules and regs, and of course the 25% tax at each level - although I believe that 25% is only a pretax at the retail level. But don't quote me on anything further than what I've quoted from the liquor board website!
Not that this seems to have a whole lot to do with big business taking over, but in a way it does. The high rate of 25% tax at each tier of the system, combined with comparing legal retail prices to current medicinal or black market street values.... well from what I understand and have heard, this system is set in a way to not segregate big business from the "basement grower." It's going to come down to quality of product and managing overhead, for those of us whom decide to pursue a career in legal marijuana production.
That's assuming the feds don't shut this shit down...
But all of those rules and regs are still being worked out. As yortbogey posted a thread in the Washington state forum, the liquor board is holding open public forums for public opinon on setting up the system. I think I will be attending next month...
You can check out the WA liquor control board website for more info, for what it's worth...
http://liq.wa.gov/marijuana/I-502
OH - and who wants to apply to be a garden enforcer? Haha... What a job that would be....
It'll be very interesting to see how this all unfolds, no matter what happens!
And a producer and processor CAN be one individual holding each license simultaneously. About $2700/lb...
Not much of a difference in price in the state of WA when it comes to regulated vs. medicinial vs. black market. It's just going to be a matter of overhead, depending on the nature of rules and regs, and of course the 25% tax at each level - although I believe that 25% is only a pretax at the retail level. But don't quote me on anything further than what I've quoted from the liquor board website!
Not that this seems to have a whole lot to do with big business taking over, but in a way it does. The high rate of 25% tax at each tier of the system, combined with comparing legal retail prices to current medicinal or black market street values.... well from what I understand and have heard, this system is set in a way to not segregate big business from the "basement grower." It's going to come down to quality of product and managing overhead, for those of us whom decide to pursue a career in legal marijuana production.
That's assuming the feds don't shut this shit down...
But all of those rules and regs are still being worked out. As yortbogey posted a thread in the Washington state forum, the liquor board is holding open public forums for public opinon on setting up the system. I think I will be attending next month...
You can check out the WA liquor control board website for more info, for what it's worth...
http://liq.wa.gov/marijuana/I-502
OH - and who wants to apply to be a garden enforcer? Haha... What a job that would be....
It'll be very interesting to see how this all unfolds, no matter what happens!
TLoft13
Member
There is coca growing in the Black Forest here in Germany. At least if you believe Quentin Tarantino.
The tax argument is the best of all arguments that speaks against a drastic drop in prices. for sure.
however, with the high costs of indoor growing gone if and when legal; supposing most farming would be done outdoors as it logically should, the price will still drop, but not as drastically as it could due to the high % of taxation. quite a shame.
Re: Are big facilities going to put basement grower at unemployment?
I agree with that to a point and see what youre saying.... But, that's where the rules and regs are really going to come into play with quality standards. The demand for indoor product will always be there... not that an outdoor grower can't produce a quality product. And the state also doesn't want vast fields of cannabis throughout the state. Also, security measures are going to be required, and a large outdoor/greenhouse fortress is probably not what the state has in mind. So this is all going to greatly depend on these "rules and regs". And for all we know, there could be limits even on this end of things. So we'll all be on the edge of our seat for a bit!
I agree with that to a point and see what youre saying.... But, that's where the rules and regs are really going to come into play with quality standards. The demand for indoor product will always be there... not that an outdoor grower can't produce a quality product. And the state also doesn't want vast fields of cannabis throughout the state. Also, security measures are going to be required, and a large outdoor/greenhouse fortress is probably not what the state has in mind. So this is all going to greatly depend on these "rules and regs". And for all we know, there could be limits even on this end of things. So we'll all be on the edge of our seat for a bit!
All the basement growers couldn't handle growing large amounts of herb anyway, All legal means is that its going to turn into a real job which most closet growers couldn't handle. If you have been doing a 4 lighter for 4 years like its never going to end better change your game plan and quick.
skull and roses
Member
Looks like national legalization still might be a long ways off. Someone posted in a thread yesterday that medical marijuana didn't win rescheduling away from schedule 1. If that can't even be changed with the mountains of medical evidence I just don't see national legalization on the horizon. This could also mean that the Feds will eventually fuck with Colorado and Washington thus stoping other states who are considering rec use.
Are big facilities going to put basement grower at unemployment?
The intent is FUCK YOU
Not help
Its a call to return to sovereignty....
Thats how its used here
If you were wondering haha
Thanks for official description
The intent is FUCK YOU
Not help
Its a call to return to sovereignty....
Thats how its used here
If you were wondering haha
Thanks for official description
