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Transitioning away from the illegal grower mindset?
- Thread starter KONY
- Start date
St. Phatty
Active member
I have about 9 seedlings right now.
FRIENDLY visits from official-dom ...
offer them some coffee.
Sometimes I wonder if I should keep some Primo Donuts around
to offer visiting cops.
FRIENDLY visits from official-dom ...
offer them some coffee.
Sometimes I wonder if I should keep some Primo Donuts around
to offer visiting cops.
HazyBulldog
Member
Wrong IMO. They don't have to. The price right now is established. Now consider the big guys will have gardens in the 10's or hundreds of tons. Profit margin is there for them to outproduce, keep the price low, and still make billions.
They have control over this market by limiting the little guys to X amount of sq ft, or whatever else they limit. While the big guys get the red tape cut.
That would be my angle if I were the big guys.
The big question is...
How is the LOCK being prepared?
Imo, it will be through legislation & fear tactics.
It about the only way they have to secure a market that's been, more or less, free for the last few centuries.
The more things change,
The more they stay the same.
Weird--
One of the problems in comparing the cannabis business cycle to your simple Intro-Grow-Maturity-Decline business model is it fails to examine that actual life cycle of cannabis strains--where 100s are created daily by pollen slingers worldwide (both professional and amateur).
So....if we ignore the actual life/business cycle of a given "business entity" (which your graph accurately depicts) and instead examine the life/business cycle of an actual product/unit/SKU (in this case cannabis) then I submit we can characterize them as: Cash Cows, Rising Stars and Dogs.
Cash Cow products (high revenue-low expense-very profitable) fund the research/development/acquisition of Rising Stars (low revenue-high expense-marginally profitable). As the marketplace transitions/changes, your Rising Stars (not all) will become Cash Cows (keepers) and others (the rest) will become Dogs (unprofitable at best). Hence this simple expression: Milk the Cows, Feed the Stars and Shoot the Dogs.
The biggest problem many decision makers have is forgetting which animal to shoot--or they rid themselves of their "golden goose" prematurely.
Cannabis cultivators are the same--we do a seed run (say 100 beans), cull the Dogs (50 will be males and another 10 will be runts/hermie/deformed). That should be 40 girls remaining and how many of those will be the sought after "pheno" (Rising Star)? Maybe 5% of the 50 ladies or 2-3% of the 100 beans? You now have 2-3 plants YOU THINK are killer. Yippee!
Hmmm, but will it sell? Will the marketplace agree with you (product acceptance) or not (product rejection)? Don't know until you try and bring it to market (crossing fingers...right?). The Fairy Tale version says your pheno is God's Gift and your Rising Star just became a Cash Cow...and everyone lived happily ever after--until next seed run. The Horror Film version says your pheno sucks ($50/lb) and since you already killed that old Cash Cow (bad market research)--you're fucked.
One of the problems in comparing the cannabis business cycle to your simple Intro-Grow-Maturity-Decline business model is it fails to examine that actual life cycle of cannabis strains--where 100s are created daily by pollen slingers worldwide (both professional and amateur).
So....if we ignore the actual life/business cycle of a given "business entity" (which your graph accurately depicts) and instead examine the life/business cycle of an actual product/unit/SKU (in this case cannabis) then I submit we can characterize them as: Cash Cows, Rising Stars and Dogs.
Cash Cow products (high revenue-low expense-very profitable) fund the research/development/acquisition of Rising Stars (low revenue-high expense-marginally profitable). As the marketplace transitions/changes, your Rising Stars (not all) will become Cash Cows (keepers) and others (the rest) will become Dogs (unprofitable at best). Hence this simple expression: Milk the Cows, Feed the Stars and Shoot the Dogs.
The biggest problem many decision makers have is forgetting which animal to shoot--or they rid themselves of their "golden goose" prematurely.
Cannabis cultivators are the same--we do a seed run (say 100 beans), cull the Dogs (50 will be males and another 10 will be runts/hermie/deformed). That should be 40 girls remaining and how many of those will be the sought after "pheno" (Rising Star)? Maybe 5% of the 50 ladies or 2-3% of the 100 beans? You now have 2-3 plants YOU THINK are killer. Yippee!
Hmmm, but will it sell? Will the marketplace agree with you (product acceptance) or not (product rejection)? Don't know until you try and bring it to market (crossing fingers...right?). The Fairy Tale version says your pheno is God's Gift and your Rising Star just became a Cash Cow...and everyone lived happily ever after--until next seed run. The Horror Film version says your pheno sucks ($50/lb) and since you already killed that old Cash Cow (bad market research)--you're fucked.
Interesting analogy Doc.
But I think it's slightly flawed... Maybe not...
Why do we gotta be "fucked" in the horror film?
Why is the choice to go back to the herd (seeds) not an option?
Maybe acquisition somebody elses cash cow while you search for yours?
Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying.
But I think it's slightly flawed... Maybe not...
Why do we gotta be "fucked" in the horror film?
Why is the choice to go back to the herd (seeds) not an option?
Maybe acquisition somebody elses cash cow while you search for yours?
Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying.
Not to be too argumentative, but, uhh, so what? Medical Northern Light & recreational Northern Light are the same thing & the rec market will be much, much bigger. Therefore the rules of the larger market apply. Those forces will be even greater when cannabis cultivation moves outdoors where it belongs. The price of cannabis will fall through the floor relative to today's market.
MJ, think we are fine--you understood just fine.
In the Horror Film story--you're fucked because the old Cash Cow was sold before verifying the new Rising Star's replacement (since you went all in with an unproven product that did not pan out--you now have nothing to run). Moral of the story: It is better to keep producing the old Cash Cow (even at a reduced rate) as you roll out and verify the "newer and improved" Rising Star. In my world, once verified, I usually sell/give away my old Cash Cow to someone that appreciates what they are getting. Keep the strain alive.
No problem in buying someone else's Cash Cow--or better yet to "take it off their hand" (sometimes there is a following/demand that will not go away and continued production is one way to keep those peeps satisfied).
Always go back to the "herd" (the "non-phenos") if necessary (2nd and 3rd best might surprise you)--if you are like me and stuck with a bunch of "lemons", I'd rather make "lemon chiffon" instead of "lemonade". But since the quest is "pheno" (new Rising Star)--you can only select from the options in front of you (not what you wanted/expected).
Another thing, if every year or two you do a seed run (R&D) and the best is STILL your "old Cash Cow" (no acceptable Rising Stars)--that is simple verification that your old Cash Cow has lots of life and is still far superior to most others.
Milk, feed & kill.
Alcohol has no medicinal value? LOL! Now that's funny!
Thanks Doc.
Crystal clear now.
Alcohol is an anesthetic!
I'd say that can be pretty medicinal.
My great Grandfather was perscribed hard liquor because he carried around a chunk of shrapnel the size of a golf ball next to his spine & it couldn't be removed by the doctors at the time.
Too bad I don't remember the guy.
Crystal clear now.
Alcohol is an anesthetic!
I'd say that can be pretty medicinal.
My great Grandfather was perscribed hard liquor because he carried around a chunk of shrapnel the size of a golf ball next to his spine & it couldn't be removed by the doctors at the time.
Too bad I don't remember the guy.
take a look at what is happening to CBDs
alcohol is like asprin, it is not proprietary
Prescription for Medicinal Liquor used during the days of prohibition ...
Here are two verses from the Bible (last one is my fav).
Luke 10:34: And went to him, and bound up his wounds, pouring in oil and wine, and set him on his own beast, and brought him to an inn, and took care of him.
1 Timothy 5:23: Drink no longer water, but use a little wine for your stomach's sake and your often infirmities.
Here are two verses from the Bible (last one is my fav).
Luke 10:34: And went to him, and bound up his wounds, pouring in oil and wine, and set him on his own beast, and brought him to an inn, and took care of him.
1 Timothy 5:23: Drink no longer water, but use a little wine for your stomach's sake and your often infirmities.
