Status of the Michigan Market

[Shmavis]

...Oregan, cali, Colorado are looking more and more promising every day.

I have thought for many years that I’d like to head to the PNW, the current status of cannabis there would just be a big bonus.

DT, you don’t mention Washington. Any reason you’d choose Oregon over Washington? I’m not up on how things are being handled in either State. I wonder if one has the advantage over the other...

Really enjoy talking about this stuff, thanks Shmavis! You don't sound like a dick at all, I hope I didn't come across as one either!

(I have a shit load going on at the moment so if something doesn't quite make sense, I am sorry! Satori is trying to straighten me out.)

Peace
GC

I enjoy it too. And no, no percievning of dicky-ness happening here (you have nothing to apologize for)

Now, let's see...

I agree that product dictates the price. It just seems that the base price of our product has been inflated due to prohibition. What is the profit margin on selling at high-end prices? This isn't like the auto industry where "better" quality parts and gadgets dictate a higher price. One grower could have $7 per gram into production costs, and another have $2. If the end product was identical, the grower with the higher cost goes under. Shitty for them, better for all other parties.

This strikes me as one fella (or woman) having better business sense than the other ($2 vs $7). Or a start-up versus an established operator. At any rate, a moot point if it’s competition who’s cut out. (No, this shouldn’t be about competition, but the unfortunate truth is that it is). As to profit margin, let’s say (yep, I’m speaking in hypotheticals ) that you sell an ounce to a dispensary for $300. Let’s further assume that it's then sold for $20 a gram, a price regularly seen... that seems to me to be a respectable return on investment. And to maintain profit margins they’ll most likely take more of a profit here, less of one there. Perhaps they sell something special only in grams to ensure their return. Anyway, I think $300 allows for ‘em to still do quite well.

I agree, that was hypothetical. I was coming from the side of after legalization, I shouldn't be. Although, if your operating within the law, those worries and non-sense shouldn't exist. We all know how to stop the idiots in charge, I.e. Schutte.

Yes, being compliant should remove one’s worries. But I fear that anyone accepting this as status quo does their self a great disservice. I’m worried that few (Edit:*many*) of the folks out there in this venture are not keeping apprised of current attempts to trample the MMMA. (not necessarily those replying herein). A quick example: do you know that caregivers are being denied an affirmative defense as registered caregivers for not knowing the qualifying condition of their patients? Do you know your patients’? If a patient provides proof of being a currently registered qualifying patient, then what business is it of mine (or anyone else’s outside their physician) as to what their qualifying condition is? This strikes me as an important privacy matter.

Let’s say you’re a full-blown caregiver with 72 plants. How’s it going to go if the worst case scenario finds you in court without being able to introduce your caregiver status as a defense? Being compliant —in the eyes of the law — is actually a very tricky thing. Also, do you know that not too long ago Schutte leaned on the State to hand over all the names (incidentally addresses as well) of registered caregivers? TheMan13 makes some good points about many forces at play here, but at the end of the day the AG is the top law-dog. He has a hard-on for caregivers. And none of us are operating within the greater superseding law of the Federal government...

Why isn't it? I have more risk of failure and loss in my "real" business than I do in being a caregiver. This again comes down to operating as a caregiver within the law or using the law to operate illegally by using dispensaries.

See above about the legal aspects. Risk of failure in a business venture, to me, is acceptable when such a failure results in simply not being able to make it, bankruptcy, etc. Not the possibility of prison time. I take such a possibility as being a much greater risk than other businesses face. Ergo, not a valid equivalence.

Dispensaries are illegal, until further law changes. No further comment..

Yes, they were deemed illegal by the State Supreme Court. And yet they continue to operate. Isn’t it funny though that now that ruling will likely be overturned due to pending legislation? As others have rightly pointed out, big business wants its slice... and of course the State wants its slice as well. And honestly the operation of dispensaries is baffling to me. I never understood how anyone could read the language of the MMMA and then construe it to allow for dispensaries. It’s just not there — as the Court has found. But what clearly is there is the provision for caregivers... which oddly is now at jeopardy.

MileHIghGlass has provided a nice concise summation of where we’re heading. The way of the dodo bird.

 

[growingcrazy]

I have thought for many years that I’d like to head to the PNW, the current status of cannabis there would just be a big bonus.

It is funny that you mention Oregon. That is where I spend the rest of the time I am not here in Michigan. We have friends and family out that way and almost bought a farm in Josephine County before we got ours here. The state of cannabis is better in Oregon. The real reason is the people made it that way and it just takes time. California got swamped and felt/is feeling the repercussions. Oregon got a huge boom as well but things are just handled differently than in California. Stick to the OMMP program and make some friends.


I think $300 allows for ‘em to still do quite well.

For sure. Still enough markup for them to make a nice living. We have a few in this area that are at $50/eight with very good product.

A quick example: do you know that caregivers are being denied an affirmative defense as registered caregivers for not knowing the qualifying condition of their patients? Do you know your patients’? If a patient provides proof of being a currently registered qualifying patient, then what business is it of mine (or anyone else’s outside their physician) as to what their qualifying condition is? This strikes me as an important privacy matter.

Yes Sir. I ask all patients what condition they are using cannabis to treat. Also a tag on each plant with my name, caregiver ID#, patients ID#, Strain and medical condition being used to treat. I have never had anyone have a problem with it.

I also believe that this case was overturned and now the new ruling is that a caregiver supplies meds and nothing more for a patient. No longer required to know conditions or if they have a bonafide Dr/patient relationship.

Yes, they were deemed illegal by the State Supreme Court. And yet they continue to operate. Isn’t it funny though that now that ruling will likely be overturned due to pending legislation? As others have rightly pointed out, big business wants its slice... and of course the State wants its slice as well. And honestly the operation of dispensaries is baffling to me. I never understood how anyone could read the language of the MMMA and then construe it to allow for dispensaries. It’s just not there — as the Court has found. But what clearly is there is the provision for caregivers... which oddly is now at jeopardy.

This is something that I have been very curious about. Every dispensary in the state is illegal. What is keeping the state from shutting all of them down? Are they lining pockets or just hoping to be open another day?

When are we going to schedule a Michigan Caregiver Conference?

Hope everyone is having a good weekend!

 

[Shmavis]

It is funny that you mention Oregon. That is where I spend the rest of the time I am not here in Michigan. We have friends and family out that way and almost bought a farm in Josephine County before we got ours here. The state of cannabis is better in Oregon. The real reason is the people made it that way and it just takes time. California got swamped and felt/is feeling the repercussions. Oregon got a huge boom as well but things are just handled differently than in California. Stick to the OMMP program and make some friends.

Oregon looks & sounds real nice!

Yes Sir. I ask all patients what condition they are using cannabis to treat. Also a tag on each plant with my name, caregiver ID#, patients ID#, Strain and medical condition being used to treat. I have never had anyone have a problem with it.

I also believe that this case was overturned and now the new ruling is that a caregiver supplies meds and nothing more for a patient. No longer required to know conditions or if they have a bonafide Dr/patient relationship.

Much respect for minding the details.

I guess I was just somewhat taken aback to read that a patient’s qualifying condition would fall to the caregiver as a responsibility to know. What other surprises might they try to impose on those caught up in the legal debacle? It’ll be really interesting to see how this all plays out.

If I’m not mistaken all three petition drives for recreational/legal status for this year’s ballot failed, is this correct? Or is there still hope for it to be up for a vote? Last I knew there was some legal wrangling over time restraints for the last surviving drive...

This is something that I have been very curious about. Every dispensary in the state is illegal. What is keeping the state from shutting all of them down? Are they lining pockets or just hoping to be open another day?

I have no idea. I really don’t understand it either.

When are we going to schedule a Michigan Caregiver Conference?

=>=>=>Sounds like a great idea!<=<=<=

Hope everyone is having a good weekend!

I’m out. Nice discussion. Everyone have a great one!

 

[stasis]

My concern is how to continue to do what I love, and thrive.

Unforch, I got to enjoy 2 good years in NorCal before the price crunch and had a great strain. I admit to being spoiled those years. My product, was (as others said and voted) the best around, so there was a value for all.

CA wholesale prices as well as even the opp'ty to be able to vend said product is severely limited. Things went bad in 09, and never were the same.

I see no reason not to expect the same here, with the obvious difference being the stronger outdoor market in CA> People can grow outdoors in Da Mitten, but it is soo much easier when there is no rain between Apr 15 and Oct 3..approx., as in NorCal,

If that sun-grown CA stock floods the market in MI during Nov, Dec, and into the next year, the effect is essentially the same as if it was grown in MI.

The prices I am seeing in the MI market, white, grey, or Black market mind you, is no different than what happened in CA> It is bit easier to sell here, but the Lowballer Middlemen are not any different.

The competition in CA's present scene is beyond comprehension, just so you guys know. Quality is not as important as simply having people willing to trade US Dollars for buds.

 

[Ganjaganjakush]

i go to a farmer market here every weekend and what ive noticed is patients don't give a shit about quality, 90% of people will just ask price dont even look at jars and if its not dirt cheap will walk away then you get the dispensary owners who get all the desperate fucks selling product for 130-150oz. out of the 10-20 vendors that show up theres maybe one other who has a product that doesn't smell like hay or overfed its entire life its frustrating trying to get what you know should be getting because of all the bullshit thats out there

 

[DemonTrich]

Had another potential patient asked me a few hrs ago what he got for free. Once again, politely I told him to kick rocks and skip. I don't grow garbage sub standard strains, top shelf clone onlys, and a couple from seed strains my usual patients like for day use.

 

[stasis]

I'm not against an oz a month no charge, for the oppty to grow using someone's script.
Don;t expect the trophy buds though, Dude.


They usually then try to get more outta ya, and sell it to someone to get cash.

Charge for the additional ozs., over 1 a mo. THEY SHOULD Be happy with that, until they're not. THen move on to other patients, I guess.

As I said, it's a F'd up shitstem we have here in da Mitten. I don;t bother at all with the patient caregiver relationship thing. I'd rather take my chances than give one of them the chance to get dramatic and do something stupid

 

[stasis]

i go to a farmer market here every weekend and what ive noticed is patients don't give a shit about quality, 90% of people will just ask price dont even look at jars and if its not dirt cheap will walk away then you get the dispensary owners who get all the desperate fucks selling product for 130-150oz. out of the 10-20 vendors that show up theres maybe one other who has a product that doesn't smell like hay or overfed its entire life its frustrating trying to get what you know should be getting because of all the bullshit thats out there

Funny, when I walk thru the FM N of Flint, I look for high quality. There is usually not much if any to be found. I occasionally find some Bubba Kush derivative that comes close to good (but how easy is it to grow good Bubba derivatives..? Easy). That's about it.

I concur... Growers are always the one to get 'skunked.'

And, There are always desperados willing to take whatever they can get, cause they;re sitting on One or a few p's and want em gone.

NOTHING HAPPENS WITHOUT PRODUCT...!

 

[Betterhaff]

45th year protesting prohibition here in Michigan.

View Image

Hopefully everywhere...love your avatar by the way.

 

[Abja Roots]

My concern is how to continue to do what I love, and thrive.

I think the probability is very low that you'll be able to do this. I've seen what happened in California over the last 10 years first hand. Prices plummeted locally, the black market prices dropped as well, more producers entered the market, and those who stayed around went bigger and bigger. The less people/farms the government has to deal with the easier it is for them to control. So it makes sense to let a handful of people get licenses and continue to pursue charges against everyone else.

I have to agree with an earlier poster who said that 90% of people don't care about the quality. It's been my experience that only a small percentage of end consumers care what it is that they're smoking. Price is the number one factor with a close second being name recognition. They don't care about some crazy Sour Queen x Sour Dubb cross or whatever it might be. They prefer those varieties whose names they recognize(GDP, Blue Dream, OGK, etc...) It might seem crazy to us, but that's how they think.

We've tried farmers markets, setting up our own collectives, creating our own varieties, growing larger amounts, and pretty much everything else we can think of. It's more and more work, for less and less pay. I've seen a transition to people looking for work with some of these bigger companies, or leaving the state. At one point it was a skill set that afforded you the ability to live a certain life style. The market which made that lifestyle possible is disappearing, and we'll all have to reintegrate into society. There will always be those who refuse to change, but most will eventually have to.

I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that corporations are taking over and will drive the price into the ground. Now what I'm looking for is a place that doesn't limit me to just a handful of plants, but allows me to grow a nice amount as long as I'm not vending it. We'll see if that ever happens. I want to be able to pop 100 seeds and keep 40-50 moms, without worrying about going to jail. In the meanwhile I'm exploring opportunities to work with some of these larger corporations, but in a way that suits me. I'd like to do in house breeding for a larger vertically integrated corporation.

If you figure out how to do it let me know.

 

[stasis]

I was in CA until 3 years ago in Mendo. Working between there and unofficially helping a major Dispo in SF. For over a decade. Right in the middle of it all. The industry laid bare, I Saw a lot. Same things happening here.

Big biz will take over. But if I have always been Black Market to people with cards - with boutique buds, (since 2009, 90% medical before that) I can hold out hope for a future doing what I do.

It's all about adapting. In the cannabizness - I've done many different things.

I can do many other 'jobs,' within and without the biz, but I want to stick with the cannabis trade. This knowledge was hard-fought. And I love how the result is having great stash of the plant I love..!

If I find answers, I must admit this will be the last place I post 'em. Been disappointed by people claiming to be 'friends' so many times in the world of 420.

The days of happy hippies helping is over. Hate to say it but, it's survival.

i.e. when I had the cut everyone wanted, I was approached by 3 major seed companies about it. They all wanted the cut. Not one offered to trade or renumerate in any way. The status was to be enough. As if.

I am beyond jaded. The deck of capitalism is simply too stacked. As soon as Cannabis is legal, all the louts who worked forever to shut us down will be the ones to profit in this corrupt state. Or their cousins, etc.

Just wanna go to the forest and chill for about 30 years. Maybe a trip to Europe (if it doesn;t implode) or Costa / Mexico now and then to surf and be around civilized people. Then return to the woods - Watch seasons come and go, birds, and other creatures are about all I can take anymore. haha.

 

[MIway]

Move to florida or texas, double ur wholesale. In a pseudo-legal market... Never going to be what it once was, unless u r an end user, then the retail jack is still there no doubt. But yes, the dispos put the squeeze on the suppliers, which forces the supplier to grow more, which makes everything commercial grade in the end, and the end user still pays retail.

Btw, u r totally correct in that the number one enemy of mmj in mi is scheutte... He instructs the msp, local prosecutors & cops, and lara to disregard state laws and to enforce fed prohibition, even though the fed is even willing to back off of enforcement if completely compliant w state laws. He is serving his own personal ideology over what the voters wanted. He is representing special interest concerns over the public good. He is the main problem w our mmj system imo. It really could have gone the way of colorado by now, were it not for the push back by asshats like bs. I really wish he was somehow involved w the flint problems, then maybe his political aspirations would be dead. He is a law and order shittard that wants federal office.

 

[stasis]

It's a real Catch 22 for us. Either accept 2200 for High Grade 69 day sativa hybrid. Or ???

28 to 26 to 24 to bottom out at 2K lately...? What am I hearing from manipulating Middlemen..?

Dispos are mostly closed, so all the product is funneling thru them. Of course this makes it a buyers market for dispos and by default, elsewhere. That makes sense. It's physics...!

The one with the skills is made to be penalized..?

The one with the knowledge, without which the industry would not exist..?

Sometimes Supply and Demand sucks.

You may have something there about FL, although incarceration, or even entanglement in the FL SHIT Prison system is something I do not ever want to entertain as a notion. FLorida is also known as the state of Snitches and extreme drama (the heat..?), but that can be anywhere -

Sometimes, I call the Mitten - Michisippi. The chance of random violence, & gun violence is not at all low in the SE corner or the Mid-part of the state - People are rightly known to be amongst the angriest in the nation.

But, up North is great, even if it is going the way of CA regarding housing availability and challenging hardship. My destination no doubt is there. If I can somehow work this absurd shitstem.

Can always sit all day, do nothing and babysit a hydro store for almost nothing, YUK. Listening to a bunch of drug dealers all day. Whoop Dee Doo.



TX is my idea of political Hell, FL and MI are bad enough..! Although the gun laws are cool. haha.

I do have people there, though ... There is an ocean if I am not mistaken, however UN pacific it is... haha. Tried it years ago from a hardcore surfing place to FL< and turned around and went back after even finding a decent job. haha.

I;d try again. THe money is good, I know.

I've had it with this shitstem, but it is worth it to wait to see what happens if we can vote in MI Legalize this year.


Peace.....

 

[MIway]

Yeah, what u said about the squeeze is about right from greater d area, amd w all the shake up happening, peeps need new homes, so there does seem to be more comp as a consequence. And despite good quality nugs, there is enough mid-low that it still competes w the good, driving all of the prices down. Its wrong to think that the shut doesnt compete w the good, it does on price.., the dispos t looking at turning inventory at a good margin as quick and as painlessly as they can, so they buy on price no doubt. If they can turn twice as much inventory of the shit vs the good, and make more of a net margin as a consequence, then thats what they want to buy... The shit at a low price. Its a shame, but they r beginning to define quality for the unqualified buyer... That is lowering the bar for what is quality, and it is working in the d. From what iv heard, ws is still better in a2, as is a recognition of quality, so there is that at least. But i reckon that as the shake up happens, there will be some return to better prices for the better gear... Or so the hope is.

Check out austin... Heard that it is progressive, at least by texan standards. Iv considered that area before. Its just texas... ;-)

 

[Abja Roots]

One of the other issues with operating on the black market(especially in the less friendly states) is that people are more aware everyday of the signs of a grow-op. It's not like ten years ago where most people didn't think about where it came from. It's in the newspapers, online articles, and tv news. The new cash crop, the green rush, etc... Even people who don't smoke and could care less are paying attention. The amount of money being made coupled with the decreased penalties is making them pay attention.

I also think that as they get rid of medical and switch to a purely recreational market, there will be less sympathy for those operating outside of the legal sphere voluntarily.

You can hold out hope, but the playing field is shifting completely. I've got to agree with MIWay as well. These business' don't care about the quality. Their number 1 concern is their margins. So they buy cheap product which moves in larger volume. As long as they control access to the market, then the deck is stacked in their favor.

Being a grower is not that special. I believe that there are more than enough talented growers to supply a small connoisseur market. Connoisseur's in the future will expect more than just some fancy hand trimmed flowers in a glass jar. I think it will be possible to continue making a living, but it will require more than it ever did before. Not everyone will be up to it.

 

[AvidLerner]

Grow two crops, one for the dispensaries, and one for self. Grow fast, cheap, maturing budz for the sales, and the good stuff for self. Follow the model established by Alcohol prohibition. It is legal to produce small quantities for self. Same will be true for MJ. Understand the business model and use it to your advantage, that is what the rich fat cats are doing. Play to win. Grow cheap weed for sale, and good weed for stash. teach the industry how things work. good stuff costs more money, average stuff is readily available. When the demand markets pick up, with legalization, demand will determine price and quality. Be patient and develop a bullet-proof business model the Corporations cannot break. peace.

 

[growingcrazy]

Can we also throw in some discussion about how the product is grown and price correlation to that?

In the food industry the tiers are, conventionally grown, naturally grown and organic. Obviously price goes up with organics. Should a conventionally grown cannabis product be able to fetch that of an organic product?

The cannabis industry has no "rules" in place. I think it is about time we put our big boy pants on and learn to model our system after any other industry. Hipocracy is so prevalent in most grower rights conversations it isn't funny.

Taxing will happen, inspections will happen, seed to sale tracking will happen, testing of product will happen. Why? It benefits and protects the people of our state, not just the growers.

A difference needs to be made between a home grower for personal and a boutique grower for income, whether "commercial" or not. For a home "boutique" grower, what happens when they pass 15k in income and the cottage law is enacted? At this point you would be required to have a production facility that is up to code, inspected and regulated(like a real business). Id like to hear discussion on that.. (back to my putting on the big boy pants comment earlier)

If the growers plan is to continue black market when there is a legal/medicinal outlet for product, I hope the citizens of the state choose to let them go bankrupt.

 

[stasis]

Thanks Guys. Great discussion You've made happen.

One thing. Whether Mitten-Way, Socal, Holland, NY or Mendocino. There is a top eschelon regarding people who actually study, learn and know strains. The percentage goes from 5% to about 20 for CA, IMHO.

There will be room for the best stuff, just gotta find afficianadoes who appreciate it and can afford to pay for it.

No other way to run this biz than depend on yourself and take the bull by the horns.

Great ideas, Dudes... Especially the commercial and the personal garden idea..!



Started germination of almost all my stored seeds yesterday. Looking for gems. Some great genetics. I am super picky about pheno choice. Out of 40 regular beans, I usually flower or five, and keep one or two. Collecting dust in the fridge ain't helping them or myself.

Mahalos.

 

[Abja Roots]

Taxing will happen, inspections will happen, seed to sale tracking will happen, testing of product will happen. Why? It benefits and protects the people of our state, not just the growers.

A difference needs to be made between a home grower for personal and a boutique grower for income, whether "commercial" or not. For a home "boutique" grower, what happens when they pass 15k in income and the cottage law is enacted?

The first part I absolutely agree with. The future will require that all products that come to market be regulated, tracked, taxed, etc...

It's the second part that I'm concerned about. If you're not vending your product or only vending a very small amount, then you should be able to grow as much as you like. It's these 4-12 plant limits that rub me the wrong way. I understand that if there's not limits then people can be diverting product to the black market, but is that a strong enough reason to keep you from growing 200 seeds in your back yard or basement? If I want to have a 20 lighter or greenhouse, that should be my choice.

It's much easier for the government to say you can only grow "x" number of plants, than to try to catch people diverting product to the black market. So that's what I think they'll do. It may take years to fight in the courts for the right to grow as much as you please as long as you're not vending it without the proper licenses etc...

 

[stasis]

* In that case, the prison system continues unabated, and maybe Asset Forfeiture (even though laws have recently been passed against it). So, the State will say yes to that every time.