Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Mountain]

I been saying that about Japan and their money staying in the country and also the possibility that they will want to redeem stuff. I don't know how all that stuff works but would bet money it'll look like something close to that.

KOG I talked about a lot got crushed after their earnings announcement some days back when initially the response was kind of mute. I remember reading Cramer saying something about the details in their earnings and saw it was in for trouble.

BRNC holding up pretty damn well with strong support around it's 20 ma but the general market is getting crushed on a huge increase in volume.

Mar 15, 2011 (SmarTrend News Watch via COMTEX) -- Rumors of insider trading surround Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKB) deal to buy Lubrizol (LZ) announced just yesterday, after analysis by Bloomberg showed call trading surged suspiciously on March 9th, 5 days before the deal was announced, to 2,931 contracts, far higher than Lubrizol's 4-week average trade volume of 413.

Duh!

Frikkin NFLX...lol!

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Well seems housing is doing better and helps the housing market during this downfall,NVR,TOL,RYL. I look at the Economic Calender at Bloomsberg http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

I sometimes trade off this If I think Whatever going to do good.Most of the times,,expect a bounce.Another stock I have for this week is EBIX..it was running very Bullish before all this went down.Sometimes a stock is late to the party.So it reacts alot slower to the tunes of the market.A gap down can mean a hard bounce back up.

LZ ..I Have in my main Fool's Portfolio and got 29% gain..Then found out buffet bought the company.I only got like 4 of those type of gains out of 100 stocks in the past year..so it's rare,but first time for a buffet gain.

BLTI I don't think it's going to hold since I don't see the Volume there at this time.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Well seems housing is doing better and helps the housing market during this downfall,NVR,TOL,RYL. I look at the Economic Calender at Bloomsberg http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
.

Good readable econ calendar link off Bloom, those 3 hombuilders round of my HomeY's List ...though there's one more company out there that is the largest gypsum /drywall maker that hav forgotten the ticker of ...oh there it is -->USG
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&...HS+LEN+LOW+MDC+MTH+NVR+PHM+PCL+RYL+TOL+USG+WY

*also threw in HD & LOW in the list & the two largest Lumbers PCL (Plum Creek) & WY ( Weyerhaeuser Lum)..

(thursday's econ numbers , going to be a busy day)

 

[Madrus Rose]

SHAW recovering nicely , great trade in there with a quick pop right up to $35 a while back, really thought they'd dip these again & call it a gift ...just above $31 area

while CCJ has plodded back up to $31 & climbing on up to $32 ,
from the dip down to $28...if u can see the aug/sept little high
there @$27.50

that's where there was support

 

[Madrus Rose]

I been saying that about Japan and their money staying in the country and also the possibility that they will want to redeem stuff. I don't know how all that stuff works but would bet money it'll look like something close to that.

KOG I talked about a lot got crushed after their earnings announcement some days back when initially the response was kind of mute. I remember reading Cramer saying something about the details in their earnings and saw it was in for trouble.

BRNC holding up pretty damn well with strong support around it's 20 ma but the general market is getting crushed on a huge increase in volume.

Duh!

Frikkin NFLX...lol!

To 'ell with NFLX , lol....

too many other exciting plays in here , just on KOG look at that
real clear pivot-dip in Jan right to $5.50 ...and thats where its
been trying to hold .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KOG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p62374389094
(Not over till fat lady sings tho.)

Here's the SMH bounce & didn't want to lose site of it for any
recovery has to have the Chippy's .... if you see that congestion
plateau all thru Dec/jan @ $32.50 ...that's exactly where it got the
bounce today..now trading $33.38.

(but that double top , overbought top was a pretty good call ! )

TXN (Texas Instruments) same chart exactly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TXN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36266621922

 

[Madrus Rose]

Also big oversold bounce for TM ( Toyota ) in here , right off the 200ma & the touch to the RSI 30 with the CCI way in the oversold .

Bounce from just above $76 back up to $81.50 area ...times of crisis just
offer some great buying opps

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p24356946951

 

[SpasticGramps]

Here's one piece u'll want to read gramps
"What Happens After QE2 Ends?"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/What-...55.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

* And caught a couple of posters over on the Yahoo SHAW board last night calling the set-up here , you'll find fits into the bearish camp outlook pretty well. Not real funny stuff & pretty accurate facts , what happens might just be similar to what they describe tho to what magnitude :

QE3 on the way. Hyperinflation will eventually follow. I've been saying this for two years. All of these extraneous external pressures will just expedite how fast we get there. Ponzi schemes cannot last. The house of cards that tried to fall in 08 will come completely down. It has to. Printing money will not keep it from doing so. It will just make the fallout much much worse.

If we had let everything crash in 08 as we should have it would have been bad. But in not doing so, in trying to cover up the fundamental collapse with paper money we have ensured complete economic devastation.

 

[Madrus Rose]

"Fed sees economy on firmer footing and holds steady" ( Uncle Ben downplays rising costs, needs employment numbers up bad and still going to print more money.. )

On Tuesday March 15, 2011, 2:32 pm EDT
By Pedro da Costa and Mark Felsenthal

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday, saying the economy was gaining traction while flagging potential inflation risks from costlier energy and food.

The widely expected decision comes on a day of steep selling on stock markets around the world as investors assessed the devastating toll of Japan's earthquake and tsunami, and fretted over the possibility of a broader nuclear crisis.

The heightened uncertainty reinforced the case for a steady-as-she-goes policy decision from the Fed, which markedly upgraded its view of the U.S. recovery and labor market.

In a unanimous decision, the Fed vowed to continue its $600 billion government bond-buying program as scheduled, and reiterated a pledge to keep interest rates at very low levels for an extended period.

"The economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually," the central bank said in a statement.

That was a much rosier assessment than it gave at the conclusion of its last meeting, in January, when it said that the recovery was still too weak to significantly bring down unemployment.

The Fed dedicated an unusually large portion of its statement to inflation concerns surrounding a recent spike in energy and food prices, which it said would most likely prove transitory.

"Long-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued," the Fed said, suggesting that it was in no rush to raise interest rates.

The statement made no direct mention of Japan.

The worst earthquake on record for the world's third- largest economy could have substantial ripple effects on the global recovery -- as evidenced by a sharp pullback in global equity prices, with Japanese stocks down over 10 percent on Tuesday alone.

Even before the tragedy, U.S. central bankers faced confusing signals. Despite high unemployment, rising energy costs appear to be nudging up the price expectations of U.S. consumers, the first inklings of an inflationary psychology the Fed would like avoid.

Fed officials managed that tension by beefing up their assessment of economic conditions while emphasizing just how far the central bank remains from its targets for both inflation and employment.

PROMISE AND PAIN

Since the Fed's last meeting in January, the U.S. economy has continued to show signs of promise. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen rapidly, down to 8.9 percent in February from 9.8 percent in November.

Still, the pace of hiring suggests further progress will be painfully slow for the 8-million-plus Americans who lost their jobs during the economic slump of 2007-2009.

At the same time, higher gasoline costs have created fresh concerns for consumers, with a big hit to confidence this month raising concerns about whether a recent spurt in consumer spending can be sustained.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, a respectable performance but a faster pace will likely be needed to make a further appreciable dent in unemployment.

Some economists thought growth could approach 4 percent this quarter, but have pared back projections, in part because of an unexpected widening in the U.S. trade deficit.

The Fed effectively chopped overnight interest rates down to zero in December 2008 and then turned to buying mortgage and Treasury debt to keep long-term borrowing costs low. In all, it has committed to buying $2.3 trillion in debt.

The asset purchases have proven controversial, with domestic critics arguing the Fed is courting future inflation while officials in emerging markets have accused the central bank of trying to boost U.S. exports by devaluing the dollar.

With the economy strengthening, officials are also likely to have had a vigorous debate on how best to eventually tighten policy, but analysts will have to wait until Fed speakers take to the podium again to get a fuller flavor of the discussions.

 

[Madrus Rose]

SOLAR : Noteable movers and %gainers today SPWRA up 10% ( Sunpower Corp) right off RSI 30

Updated Solar List including ICLN etf (Global Clean Energy fund )
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&...ener+eslr+fcel+fslr+hoku+jaso+ldk+sol+tsl+yge

FLSR up another 12pts today as well as all solar stocks green (cept for ENER)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&...ner+eslr+fslr+jaso+ldk+spir+stp+spwra+tsl+yge

FSLR low in the oversold RSI near 30 , the CCI/MacD both turning up out of the oversold nearly 20pt bounce last two days

 

[SpasticGramps]

I love how he cites that useless U-3 unemployment number. Pretty soon we will have 0% unemployment! Everyone will have dropped out of the labor market, but they don't count anyway. That is almost as bad as using the CPI to say there is no inflation, but I'm sure Uncle Benny has a firm grasp of what he is doing.

He has been 100% right so far.

"At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to Congress' Joint Economic Committee.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Also big oversold bounce for TM ( Toyota ) in here , right off the 200ma & the touch to the RSI 30 with the CCI way in the oversold .

Bounce from just above $76 back up to $81.50 area ...times of crisis just
offer some great buying opps

I would be apprehensive about this stock as an investor... most plants are all shut down in japan and the radiation leaks is not solved.Parts and everything else.

On the other hand...they may need more new cars since all the other ones got flooded,wrecked from the tsunami.If the plants were running full capacity..only takes a few days or weeks of stoppage for the investor to dump the stock and wait until recovery returns.Would hate to see the stock dropped say $10-$15.00 overnight.But they are not building cars as of this moment.

With some toyota plants in the u.s.a ...it may help but our dollar sucks so i don't see anything there also.

 

[Madrus Rose]

yah , as an investor one should only average in but if your going to trade these have to look at the bounces yesterday knowing that whatever the Asian markets do in their sell-offs, almost everytime the US markets will bounce . They really won't know the full scope of this Japan crisis for several more weeks and tie all the data in and you can always bet your bottom dollar that the Fed Chairman or someone is going to come in & make some positive comments to help bolster things like Uncle Ben did today . (that was guaranteed !)

With 5 down days in a row and the last two huge hits TM visits a lower support level right around that month of dec plateau/congestion lows right under $78 . This is where i really love the CCI indicator which very often confirms a bounce point where the RSI may not be as clear . BUt that RSI touch to 30 hasn't been seen for a long long time for Toyota chart , so bounce is really imminant . RSI very powerful indicator , all traders key off of & CCI is the cherry ontop.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p01127824192


They were dipping the Uraniums yesterday and so you have to believe thos same supports would hold again today ...sure enough CCJ bounced like a champ right off that lower support and closed right where it closed yesterday around $32.50. Here the RSI/CCI was really indicating a bounce and no matter what the gloom & doom sayers say , Nuclear reactors aren't going anywhere and here to stay.
( And SHAW too )

(Big trades in the beaten down Solars too, many shorts also covered aiding in their rise )

 

[Mountain]

BOJ has injected about $325 billion dollars in 3 days.

Japan shares have surged back. Holy crap what a drop in the last few days!

 

[Madrus Rose]

BOJ has injected about $325 billion dollars in 3 days.

Japan shares have surged back. Holy crap what a drop in the last few days!

This drop in here made the bounce plays easy , just the opposite of calling the top which was thinking after that 2nd pullback on the Nasd we'd just wiggle around in a slightly lower trading range . That scenario would make it a daily chase on news events , upgrades & momo plays which is alot of work . The earthquake/tsunami sure shaked things out which now begins a whole new task of looking over many reports re-charting everything again , starting fresh .

Kind of took my eyes off NFLX which Goldman did the upgrade today , it really was in the oversold and CCI was indicating a bounce . There was that previous top mid Jan around $193 area ...after it lost the 50ma which now again becomes strong support @ $205.

* Funny thru out all this many that lost their 50mas still found clear support or at least bounced right off their 200ma's and trying to hold there. Even the Insurers like AIG HIG MET PRU that will really feel a pinch all held their 200mas.

FSLR did too & old friend GS (Goldman) both got their bounces off that 200ma too . Just knew in my bones GS would visit that $155 area , took a tsunami to get it there !

 

[Mountain]

Just knew in my bones GS would visit that $155 area, took a tsunami to get it there!

The tsunami ain't over.

As for some of this stuff like NFLX bouncing...saw Inside Job last night about Wall Street manipulation and very well done. I just wonder what the current game de jour is?

I'm still short via QQQQ puts and doing just fine.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Housing starts down 22% in Feb. Wonder what Uncle Benny thinks about that?

PPI jumps the most since 1974. Ooops there's the inflation finally popping it's head up in the numbers.

Have a good trading day guys. Volatility will probably rear its head too. Oil will be up IMO. The situation in Bahrain is deteriorating quickly.

 

[Madrus Rose]

"Wholesale Prices Spike on Steep Rise in Food, Oil"
Wholesale prices rise 1.6 pct. due to biggest jump in food costs in more than 36 years
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Whole...tml?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

"New-home construction plunges in February"
New-home construction plunges in February to second-lowest level on record
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Newho...4.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=


In this photo made Feb. 17, 2011,
The Associated Press, On Wednesday March 16, 2011, 10:43 am

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Builders broke ground last month on the fewest homes in nearly two years and cut their requests for permits to start new projects to a five-decade low. The decline in construction activity is the latest evidence that the housing industry is years away from a recovery.

Home construction plunged 22.5 percent in February from January to a seasonally adjusted 479,000 homes, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was the lowest level since April 2009 and the second-lowest on records dating back more than a half-century.

The decline followed a surge in highly volatile apartment construction in January, which pushed the overall construction rate up to more than 600,000 units -- the fastest rate in 20 months. Still, the building pace has been far below the 1.2 million units a year that economists consider healthy.

CRZO , old friend up again today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRZO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75215838215


* upgrades

Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG): KOG gets raised to Outperform from Neutral with an $8 price objective by brokers Robert W. Baird, the firm saying that despite a slow start to 2011 execution risk is mostly captured in the current stock price.

Noble Energy (NBL): UBS raises its Noble Energy recommendation to Buy from Neutral.

Liberty Global (LBTYA): The stock is lifted to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Marathon Oil (MRO): UBS moves Marathon Oil to Buy from Neutral.

Downgrades

Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is downgraded to Market Perform from Market Outperform at JMP Securities. Also read iPad or iFad? Why Tablets Will Remain a Niche Product.

International Business Machines (IBM): Dow member International Business Machines, recently trading at the highest level in its history, gets cut to Market Perform from Outperform by Sanford Bernstein.

Hercules Offshore (HERO): HERO is moved to Underperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital amid upcoming challenges and a recent rally that looks to have left shares overvalued.

MVC Capital (MVC): MVC is lowered to Hold from Buy at Lazard.

Telefonica S.A. (TEF): The stock is taken to downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by BNP Paribas.

AGCO Corp (AGCO): The stock gets downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs.

 

[Madrus Rose]

NVDA $17.78 ...bouncing a bit off the oversold , some good support @ $15 hav to see how they treat techs from here ...200ma @ $14.26
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVDA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p34813484098

 

[Zen Master]

aapl down 3.9% right now.

interesting being new to this, getting a handle on things.

 

[Mountain]

As the No. 3 holder of Treasuries, after the Fed and China, Japan has boosted its holdings by about $10 billion a month over the past year. Now, the U.S. will have to find another buyer to fill that hole, even as it needs to plug the $75 billion monthly hole that will open up at the end of June, when the Fed winds down the Treasury purchases launched in November.

At least the volume is slowing down a bit in the markets.