Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Madrus Rose]

15% higher trade deficit , higher gas prices , jobless recovery ? Market at all time highs & over bought ? Fed stimulus or no , time for a little reality check . $COMPX lost that 50ma rather well today ...but there were some that got tradeable bounces .

Stocks plunge on economic news, slumping oil price
Negative US and overseas economic data and a drop in oil prices send stocks sharply lower

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-plunge-on-economic-apf-2850721087.html?x=0

Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential, said the market was shaken by the combination of unexpectedly weak economic news from China, the downgrade of Spain's debt and concerns that protests planned for Friday in Saudi Arabia could bring instability to the world's biggest oil exporter.

"The tone of the market has clearly changed," Krosby said. "The market trend had been to buy rather than sell and that bad news doesn't matter. The momentum is slowing."

The government reported before the market opened that new applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week and the trade deficit jumped in January.

New unemployment claims rose by 26,000, far more than the 12,000 analyst had expected. Applications fell to nearly a three-year low the previous week.

The U.S. trade deficit increased 15.1 percent to $46.3 billion as higher oil prices caused imports to rise faster than exports. A widening deficit threatens the U.S. economic recovery. When imports outpace exports, more jobs go to overseas workers than to U.S. workers.

Investors moved money into relatively stable investments as stock prices fell. Treasury prices rose, sending the yield on the 10-year note down slightly to 3.45 percent from 3.47 percent late Wednesday. An index measuring the dollar against other currencies rose 0.5 percent.

 

[Mountain]

Market is getting crushed this morning.

I'm shocked...lol!

Nice move with NFLX on a day like today.

"The tone of the market has clearly changed,"

It changed early last week. The writing was on the wall.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I'm guessing when the s&p hits 1293, its on, a race to the bottom.

 

[Mountain]

I'm guessing when the s&p hits 1293, its on, a race to the bottom.

Yeah if the markets break much lower from here it should drop pretty fast then. Like I said yesterday, I think, once the NASDAQ gets through about 2700 it should tank.

Gap lower on huge volume violating a critical support line which was flattening and losing momentum...ha ha...yikes!

 

[zenoonez]

Very risky. I should have waited but lack of patience got the better of me. I haven't made anything yet this week and I was getting antsy. Down a little right now but maybe towards close it will push. I gotta stop making Thursday and Friday my money days. Gotta man up and take some small moves earlier in the week.

 

[Madrus Rose]

I'm shocked...lol!

Nice move with NFLX on a day like today.

It changed early last week. The writing was on the wall.

Some still bouncing off their 50mas & haven't given up yet ...


NFLX quite a trader isn't it ? About a 13pt swing off the low today ...they still have the subscribers in place & not getting any major competition for at least 6mos-1yr . Often the CCI indicator really helps more clearly in seeing an "oversold" point & that touch near the $190 area was a former top in Jan . Wonder how many fund guys knew in advance of the impending AMZN news of entering the space ?? NFLX sure sold off pretty dam quick of that test of top after great earnings <G

NFLX pop halted on the bounce right to the 50ma too today ,
funny how that works
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p05391465445

They just aren't going to let go of the fibre optics too easily with JDSU getting that small tradeable bounce was looking for (more bang for the buck)

JDSU check out the CCI in the oversold & that quick touch to the 50ma ...CCI always really valuable in helping to more clearly define the "oversold" , especially on highflyers just correcting & leasds the RSI a bit .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JDSU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p00706492085

SLV stalled a bit as expected right up near " nice even "$36" & pulled back ...needed a little rest . $SILVER just put in a couple of spinning tops here @ $36 too...they're undecided to push higher , pretty OB (overbought)

SLV....talk about a run up MACD off the chart almost , lol
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43601138854

$SILVER undecided here but bet it pulls back
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p97074879388

 

[Madrus Rose]

USO ( US Oil Fund) pulled back from the OB the MACD was really up there CCI & RSI too.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p27121919808

and the OIH

OIH ( Merill's oil services group)...pretty good/important proxy for the Oils, was pretty obviously calling its own top at $165 now comes the test of the 50ma where it got support from previous low...more support @ $147 & lots @ $142 area...but for now holding the 50ma

 

[Mountain]

Wonder how many fund guys knew in advance of the impending AMZN news of entering the space ??

There's NO such thing as insider trading...jeez.

It's just the stupid ones that get caught.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Been nice to have gotten a few 100K shrs short of LEI & BDCO after their pops ??

Very rarely do these little junk stocks ever hold their gains ...& usually wait for the "3Day" rule to short them .

** Have to watch Goldman "GS" in here as real important proxy to the financials ... funny how they popped those the other day....some choppy shit going on in here tho the CCI indicates nearing a bounce , its all news driven .

But like i said a couple of days ago , they will all of a sudden start to see woes instead of roses , in come the downgrades & cautions as the market breaks certain supports ...then they step in & grab them up all over again .

Here's the XLF (Financial spyder select)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26192011768

and Goldman Sachs trying to bounce in here ...this slow down in China weighing on minds now , were range trading in here with supports being broken ...but not major damage yet . If a shoe drops & markets really cr@p out a litle later ---->expect a bounce for GS off that $155-$157 area . (But may bounce here too )

 

[Madrus Rose]

There's NO such thing as insider trading...jeez.

ya , just like boys don't talk about tits n asses and which girls put out, in the locker~rooms , lol!

(its in their nature , Cramer talks to his buds over @ Goldman every day ...)

That trip top on EGY @ $8.50 area sure held true didn't it ? But the run from $4 made this an easy call for everyone saw that double top from 2ys ago & the more recent tops there , cashed in ..should have some support for now round the $7.25 area .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EGY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p00993631365

a quick dollar drop for this was pretty big move...lots of profitaking which at these recent levels , a shorts best friend .

 

[Mountain]

Been nice to have gotten a few 100K shrs short of LEI & BDCO after their pops ??

Very rarely do these little junk stocks ever hold their gains ...& usually wait for the "3Day" rule to short them.

You meant to say 1K shares didn't ya? I mean you're only talking a few mil...should I be better friends with you? At least you should pay for lunch...LOL!

Yeah absolutely the stuff that get's played like that rarely holds those gains...except during the last oil crisis when some moved 10 fold from their bases like PDO.

 

[Mountain]

That trip top on EGY @ $8.50 area sure held true didn't it ? But the run from $4 made this an easy call for everyone saw that double top from 2ys ago & the more recent tops there , cashed in ..should have some support for now round the $7.25 area.

Bought Q puts instead near the close yesterday. There was virtually nothing out there forming solid patterns to launch from and EGY was one of the few. Everything was extended or already breaking down. PWAV looks interesting here but it's destined to fail at this point IMO.

 

[Madrus Rose]

You meant to say 1K shares didn't ya? I mean you're only talking a few mil...should I be better friends with you? At least you should pay for lunch...LOL!

Yeah absolutely the stuff that get's played like that rarely holds those gains...except during the last oil crisis when some moved 10 fold from their bases like PDO.

well short trades should always be planned out , trading the indicators in real time during trading ...but already having done the charting before you have these pivot points clearly in mind so when they happen youre right ontop of them . In the case of an EGY (under $10 stock) shorting a few K shares up near $8.30 when it popped & it goes a nickle or two farther.... you just average up & bop it again without too much risk.
(just like averaging down ...if trade goes against u a 3rd time then clear it )

those little momo's with small floats you have to play long & give them a couple of days to break....but when they have small floats they can really make some moves into the OB .

Man this OIH should be bouncing in here soon ...5days down in a row . If you can trade the OIH you can trade just about anything . These guys trade 20k shrs at a time often routinely ...or $3mil dollars worth ! Bet lots of Saudi's & Arabs trade it every day , lol, but some of the saaviest traders play it . It does conform to very clear daily trading patterns & does usually follow a pattern obeying an "up" day or down day & the RSI .

The OIH is strictly a big boys player , not uncommon for traders to make a few 100K trading it a day (if on the right side)..seeing a tradeable bounce in here ...its one of the fiercest out there & can throw you like a Brahma bull! And when it reverses after looking really bad then it pops right back in your face 5pts .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p41313605539

eventually if it hits $147 area ...that be nice ....but prolly shorts cover their positions before the weekend . I see a bounce in here now but let the night news play out ...last trade $152 closing near the low . A dip under $150 think we'll see the bounce if oil sinks lower ..if not bouncing tomorow am from here .

 

[Mountain]

Kind of funny...a few weeks ago it was not 'ugly' and now it is after some major damage to the markets already had happened...

04:18 PM ET - Stocks fell hard Thursday as China's weak exports, a downgrade to Spain's debt and bigger-than-expected initial jobless claims in the U.S. came together to paint an ugly economic picture.

The market said things were ugly before the news started coming out...and more ugly to come.

 

[Madrus Rose]

well , when oil tops $100 & they're still trying to run the market like they were last week or two weeks ago (during that obvious distribution) , all u can do is say WTF ?

Usually thats them doing their damage control pumping before dumping sucking in the last of the retail ...now they're talking the cost of energy blues , not like oil has just gone above $100 & that might precipitate some economic hardships internationally & here <g

Even XOM gave back this last month , here's that last touch to the RSI 70 & the CCI pretty much tells you its topping right above $85 area ...also here's where u pull up the weekly chart, wow was that overbought ...but XOM traditionally doesn't get to $90, ever.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71530548767

Like GS for the financials XOM is to the oils & energy..these have to be on any watchlist as proxies for their sectors .
And the XLF & OIH as etf proxies

 

[Madrus Rose]

Taking a guess. I'm going to say the dollar is up. Oil is down a bit pushing oil stocks down. I think it will be going back up to $105. It may test $98. .

Buy the Dip!

Here's the news out of PIMCO just today gramps and your man Bill Gross
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gross...78.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=


On Thursday March 10, 2011, 3:27 pm EST

The world's largest bond fund has moved out almost entirely from US debt and into that of emerging markets and corporations, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC.

Speaking a day after news broke that Pacific Investment Management Company had dumped its Treasurys holdings from its $236.9 billion Total Return fund, the Newport Beach, Calif.-based firm's managing director said it would return once yields grew more attractive.

"It's not a question of dissing the United States or questioning the credit of the United States, but simply a maturity reflection," Gross said. Treasurys are "mispriced relative to the inflationary environment and the growth we see ahead and there are better alternatives in order to capture yield."

Gross primarily based his evaluation on the reduction in yields caused by the Federal Reserve's buying of close to $2 trillion in Treasurys, with more slated before the second leg of the program-often called QE 2-comes to an end.

"When a trillion and a half dollars worth of annualized purchasing power disappears I simply question as to who will buy them and at what yield," he said. "We're suggesting at these yields it might be problematic."
Instead, the firm has moved its money to other debt until the rate structure changes.

"Those would be corporate bonds, those would be a smattering of high yield bonds and a growing proportion of emerging market debt which yields in the 5 to 6 percent category," he said. "Are these bonds as safe as Treasurys? No, they are not triple-A types of investments but they're not overvalued based on quantitative easing procedures that we've seen over the past 12 months.

"So we've moved into Brazil and Mexico and moved money, yes, at the margin into Spain, which has a better balance sheet than the United States."
He said the Total Return fund has returned about 5 percent, whereas a Treasurys portfolio would yield about 2 percent.

 

[Madrus Rose]

another Goodie

Attention Deficit: What to Make of January’s Trade Data

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Atten...32.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=


Daniel Gross, On Thursday March 10, 2011, 12:44 pm EST

What can we learn from Thursday's Commerce Department report on January's $46 billion trade deficit — other than that the U.S. brings in a lot more stuff from overseas than it sends to people in other countries?
Four things.

Declining Decline. Pessimists have hammered home three persistent themes during the current expansion: global growth is a zero-sum game; the U.S. doesn't make or produce anything the world wants; and the U.S. doesn't matter as much economically as it used to.

But look at that data. Since bottoming in April 2009, exports have risen virtually every month. In January, U.S. exports were a record $167.7 billion, up 2.7 percent from December 2010, up 15.9 percent from January 2010 and up 35 percent from the monthly low of $124.1 billion in April 2009. (Thank you, foreigners!) It turns out the U.S. produces plenty of goods, services and experiences that the world wants. And continuing global growth means more people around the world can afford them. Oh, and as much as we like to write off the power of the chastened, debt-laden American consumer, our shoppers won't be denied. By importing $214 billion of stuff, we're keeping a lot of factories around the world humming.

Trade is the new plastics. (If you don't get the obvious reference to The Graduate, click here.) Imports and exports combined in January were $381.7 billion, up 18 percent from $323 billion in January 2010, and up 38 percent from $276.7 billion in April 2009. The implication: Trade and trade-sensitive businesses are good ones to be in. Exporting, importing, agriculture, commodities, shipping, delivery, logistics, railroads, hotels, translation, custom brokerage. The companies that facilitate the movement of people and goods around the world have bounced back rapidly and are experiencing high levels of demand. Which means they may be hiring.

Oil Filter. If the U.S. didn't use so much oil, the U.S. trade deficit would look a lot better. (Duh!) Check out Exhibit 9 on Page 11 of the report. In January, the U.S. imported $26 billion more of petroleum products than it exported. Even if oil consumption remains flat, as it generally has in recent years, more-expensive oil contributes to a higher trade deficit. Rather than complain about it, the U.S. can do something about it. Policy (drill, baby drill!), behavior (carpool, baby, carpool!) and consumer choices (hybrid, baby, hybrid!) could combine to put a dent in this component of the trade deficit.

It's little noticed and much dismissed, but the slow shift in the U.S. car fleet toward greater efficiency is helping keep oil demand down. Now if we could only do something about the diversity of transportation fuel supplies — i.e., if more cars could run on natural gas, or electricity, or fast-food grease — then the trade deficit would shrink dramatically.

The China trade. As per usual, China accounted as well for a big chunk of the trade deficit in January (about $23 billion, or half the total). That's up from $18.2 billion in January 2010. Here's a chart of America's trade balance with China.
China is definitely buying more goods from the U.S. — last year exports to China rose 32 percent from 2009. But they're starting from a low base. And U.S. imports from China, which are starting at a very high base, rose 23 percent in 2010. Of course, this trend may be poised to reverse. If you believe official Chinese numbers (a reasonably big 'if') China had a trade deficit in February, as exports barely budged from the year before while imports rose nearly 20 percent from February 2010. The Chinese government has made noises about wanting to encourage more domestic consumption. And what the Chinese government wants, it tends to get. Throw in the marginal appreciation in China's currency against the dollar, which will make the country's exports more expensive, and it's possible that this component of the trade deficit could start to shrink. It'll be interesting to see if the U.S. data for February, which will be released next month, confirm this report.

All of which leaves one final question: Why does China know its trade data for February when the U.S. is just now reporting its January trade data? Trains apparently aren't the only thing that move more quickly in China vs. in America.

 

[noreaga]

i lost like hell on my oil stocks, taking a good breather from the market as im now extra angry / trading risky to compensate lost capital going to be a boring month until im back in the matrix bros. lets hope this 'correction' makes for good setups to come. you guys think this will spill over into next week?

keep it bullish
nore

 

[Mountain]

you guys think this will spill over into next week?

Oh yeah. The downside momentum is gathering steam. This is the first real break in the upside momentum. When the slide will stop is just a guessing game at this point.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

you guys think this will spill over into next week?

You can gauge the Point and figure charts..I like to read it there as well as some graphs too.The P&F you can see when it floats those 0's and X's...All those 0's are bearish and X's for bullish.I like to read the SP500 rather than the Dow.Just spend some time looking it and you can read the market a little easier.

You know...I have been watching GMCR for 2 years and it's un-freaking-believable since it split I forgot what happened...Google is not showing anything but it went from $20 to $60 then split back to $20 then back up again now at $60.00...and today up $18.00 !

It just prove once Wall street gets behind a stock..look out!

The X's and the O's that no one talks about below.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,PLTCDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!4!20]&pnf=y