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Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

whodare

Active member
Veteran
You'd wanna trade ProShares Ultra Silver ticker symbol AGQ that will basically give you 200% of the daily move of silver...and if you're wrong you'll lose $ twice as fast. Just like USO will basically track oil but UCO, for better or worse, gives you twice the move so you can lose $ twice as fast.

I've never touched futures. If you're wrong in something leveraged you can get your head handed to you on a platter so fast you're heart will still be beating...lol!

i know that why i said it doubles your exposure;)

you make it sound scary lol i doubt id fuck with much else in the futures but for now at least silver seems relatively ''safe''
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Going to be alot more pressure on FNSR tomorow & the fibre telecoms in general , the conference FNSR noted a "slow down in China" across the board . This has been one bread n butter growth market for american tech companies (across the board) during th4e recession & still gave them a market to keep up their sales & bottome line .

Grim news from FNSR if true ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Finisars-grim-view-of-Chinese-apf-2747944449.html?x=0&.v=1

Going to be some tradeable bounce in here for JDSU tmorrow but as
CRamer warns let the "big boys" do their dump thing first ...be nice to
catch JDSU around $18 if it gets there ...god , this sector was so over
bought it was 1990's silly.

Cramer warns "Don't Rush Into the Optical Space Here"...and all this after JDSU was one of the hottest stocks in both markets just two days ago <g

http://secure2.thestreet.com/cap/login/rm_mbp_yahoo_bd.jsp?PPOID_1=400001&PPOID_2=400003&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=PREMIUM&cm_ite=003190&flowid=84ae9ac701&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestreet.com%2Fp%2F_yahoo%2Frmoney%2Fjimcramerblog%2F11036187.html
 

Sam the Caveman

Good'n Greasy
Veteran
I just read yesterday that there is no "pattern day trader" rules on trading futures, and there are a few videos that sparked my interest in the ES. (E-mini S&P futures)

It sounds easy enough, "Oh, I'll just trade that." Its not so simple though to do it effectively. It seems i'll need (1.) a broker to execute the trades at a fair price (2.) A subscription to live streaming quotes from the CME (chicago mercantile exchange), since thats where the ES is traded and (3.) a trading platform that I like (software) that can interface with my live streaming quotes and my broker.

Complicated shit thus far. Some of these trading platform software programs sound complicated to figure out, but once you do, its a gravy train, so they say. And I can barely figure out how to work microsoft paint.

noreaga - trading unemotionally, thats the challenge for every trader on so many different levels. I've been paper trading for many months now and its like over and over again I need to exercise more patience. Not in the same way each time though, so, I am learning and getting better.

My gf thinks I waste too much time watching the market, she is very skeptical that what I'm learning will ever amount to anything. She doesn't understand most of it and looks down on my as if I'm, "doing nothing all day" when I watch the market. Its a bit frustrating. Maybe when she sees an account growing, or a check from my trading account, she will feel better about it. Just today she told me "my friend at work said his dad lost $80k in the stock market, I don't want you to lose that much money." I was just shaking my head to myself thinking "here we go again, I have to explain this one more time to her." Just venting, never mind me
 

whodare

Active member
Veteran
started my collection already

35 cents from 1952 is now worth about 20 dollars lol

picture.php
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
EGY ..Thx man...didn't look at the long term charts and would agree. Short term OK as I usually am only looking 1-5 days out.

EGY ( note it pulled back from that triple top was talking about @ $8.50)

Past is prologue .... and ya gotta often toggle back n forth between the daily & weekly charts as much as possible to see where the stocks been , not just the last 3mos but sometimes the entire 2yrs before . In the casse of EGY was skeptical & at these levels (and trip top)due alot more FA to see that a break out of this triple top was warranted ...or be looking to short .

Another double top , overbought /all time high on FNSR , now another one "fails" for the record books in this overbought market . But wait ! It doesn't look like it was overbought on the daily chart on the last pulback to $40. The RSI is looks to be heading back down to 50 ...but here's where u take a look at the weekly where it shows FNSR has been totally overbought since hitting $27's back in DEC !!!

Been 4mos & no one knew that network demand was slowing in China & inventory build-ups were happening ? uh oh ... A hot sector but wouldn;t give more than $18 at most for FNSR (well maybe $22 something) , and it was overbought then .


FNSR daily chart, watch the tape tomorrow , going to be confusing for whos' dumping , whos shorting , whos buying etc....will get a bounce
fnsr.png


FNSR weekly
fnsrwekly.png
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
$Silver ...would be looking to short scalp silver in here now... the brits & us get in the no fly zone
pressures will ease off commodities a bit, and i think they'll get it

u can trade the SLV pretty safely pretty slow mover & getting overbought , but there's many m00re reasons there's the flight to precious metals in here ...like money's not worth spit anymore ! ;)

SLV (iShares Silver Trust) NYSE
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98676155682


$SILVER chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82388550476
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
$USD ....from Double Tops to---> double bottoms ...see how they both work ??

* Also another classic bounce for our worthless dollar , right off touch to 30RSI (and did once before )...peeps still like Ben Franklyns all over the world ;)

usd.png
 

zenoonez

Active member
Veteran
I didn't ride anything. Whole market was booming early and all of it lost its momentum with decreased volume. People made their money on the open and dumped it on pullback never to buy in again, psychological switch from bull to bear mindset. A bull would watch that baby and buy it on its valley to see if it would make another run at the top but people just took the money and ran to pseudo-quote songs from my fathers tape deck. Lol. Looks like the late week is going to have to save me again. Its funny, statistically I do better in days where the market is red, probably because when it is investors are looking for anything in the green with any momentum to play with and end up pushing it higher. Oh well, I guess we will see what the market has for us today. Good luck everyone, :tiphat:
 

TNTBudSticker

Well-known member
Veteran
My gf thinks I waste too much time watching the market, she is very skeptical that what I'm learning will ever amount to anything. She doesn't understand most of it and looks down on my as if I'm, "doing nothing all day" when I watch the market. Its a bit frustrating. Maybe when she sees an account growing, or a check from my trading account, she will feel better about it. Just today she told me "my friend at work said his dad lost $80k in the stock market, I don't want you to lose that much money." I was just shaking my head to myself thinking "here we go again, I have to explain this one more time to her." Just venting, never mind me

I find that those people who lose alot of money expects to sit and wait for their money to increase in value almost never learn anything else but hand someone's else money over to another person.I have invested almost 25 years now.( me old-young fart eh? Still under 50 thou..lol) and it has come a long ways from having a broker do your money and asking the same questions over and over about how it's doing and now having the internet at your finger tips and actually surf and gain more knowledge then a broker will ever give.

To lose 80K is some either some dumb luck or that person went all out in a stock and didn't Short.85% of folks don't know what a short is.That's how idiotic some folks are.Not making fun of any one but my friend and his parents went after AOL a long time ago and rode it down alot and STILL didn't know a short was until I TOLD him 4 years ago what a short was.He was so dumbfounded that I told him.Even his own Dad didn't know what a short is.

80K is a ALOT !! Some basic rules apply here..invest only 20% of your money..If you're good,one can increase that percentage.Start small,Never all in..go to Vegas for that B.S (excuse me but that's how I feel) Doing it yourselves,saving money from brokerage fees.Money is everything here.Follow that money,Ride the waves.Follow the crowd. (not penny stocks..bahhh)

Anyways...Out of MMG and watching the Chemical sector ARJ and HTS- Financials that I saved last week finally moving.HTS pays $4.00 a year back..lol

I was in 2 stocks when I first started..One was $2.00 a share and a chicken stock.(they breed alot so I thought,money gotta be there but was later sold to another company and it was a family member they sold it too.Got to watch for this type of stock and who owns it.They all sold to each other (5 brothers and one father) and made the stock go to $0. This is why I don't like DRYS stock because the guy who owns the company has 2 ex-wifes that he's paying for and bought a cheap ship from another company he owns for $100,000 less and said it was a good deal. (what a dork!) LOL

Over 1 Billion dollar market Cap company and only 3 people run it ?

The other stock was around $22.00 a share and I sold awhile back but I went to the website and checked the dividends and the compounding did you know $10,000 became $500,000 15 years later? and that's not including the drop of 2 years ago when the market went down almost 5000 points.

Learning where money goes is better gained that having a bank pay someone 1% to control their money.
 
Last edited:

Sam the Caveman

Good'n Greasy
Veteran
I asked her $80k of what, she didn't know. I said, well, if its $80k of $2mil, thats a 4% loss, if its $80k of, say $250k, thats a 32% loss, big difference. Either way, an $80k loss is a lot. I told her if I ever had 2mil to manage, losing $80k would probably only be a part of the annual losses, but as long as the gains exceed the losses, its all good.

I basically told her if any person has a system in place that minimizes risk and gives them a real advantage with their entry points, and the system is followed, you will come out ahead, as long as the advantage is a real one, proven.
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
Now the question starts all a'buzz is China's economy slowing too fast ?



lonely_chinese_vendor.gi.top.jpg

A vendor at a market in Hefei in China's Anhui province waits for customers. Some economists and investors wonder if China's economy may slow down too quickly.
By Paul R. La Monica, assistant managing editorFirst Published: March 9, 2011: 12:32 PM ET



NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's starting to look as if everybody's worst fears about China's economy may finally be coming true. China is slowing down.

But how severe will the pullback be? And is it only temporary? That's up for debate.

2Email Print G-20 nations at a glance
China reported sluggish auto sales figures for February on Wednesday morning. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of passenger vehicles were up less than 3% from a year ago.

One reason for the slowdown is that tax breaks for small cars expired at the end of last year. But the anemic pace of growth may continue.

Economists from Barclays Capital noted in a report Wednesday that "with borrowing costs rising and credit availability falling, the fuel for rising automobile demand is running low" throughout Asia.

The economists added that weakness could be most pronounced in China and India since their central banks are raising rates to combat inflation.

If oil prices remain above $100 a barrel for an extended stretch, that could only make matters worse. And that may eventually be bad news for the likes of General Motors (GM) and Ford (F, Fortune 500). (Their Chinese sales did rise in February though.)

China's auto sales news comes only a few days after the Chinese government disclosed that it was targeting an economic growth rate of 7% a year for the next five years.

Emerging markets are hot. Place your bets.
That, of course, is still robust growth -- even if it is considerably lower than the double-digit percentage gains that China's economy has been growing at for the past few years.

"China is not immune to business cycles. But slowing the trajectory of growth is not the same as saying the economy is going to decline," said Art Steinmetz, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds Based in New York.

Still, there is reason to be worried that China's economy may be cooling even more quickly than people expected.

Optical networking equipment maker Finisar (FNSR), which had been one of the hottest stocks this year due in part to hopes for strong growth in China, stunned investors Tuesday evening with a weak outlook for the current quarter.

Finisar said in its earnings report that "a slowdown in business in China overall" was a key reason for its tepid forecast.

Shares of Finisar plunged nearly 40% Wednesday on the news, dragging down other networking equipment companies with a big presence in China, like JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Ciena (CIEN).

If more Chinese telecoms and tech firms start to rein in spending, that's not good news. It goes without saying that a healthy Chinese economy is key to keeping the U.S. and global recovery on track.


China is now officially the second-largest economy in the world. Big U.S. firms such as KFC owner Yum! Brands and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) are doing more business there. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury debt.

We need China even if we sometimes don't agree with or understand everything their government does.


0:00 /2:42China's economy blazes ahead of Japan
And the biggest problem right now is that China can't afford to be lax about inflation risks. That likely will mean more monetary tightening to slow growth further -- even as the Federal Reserve seems intent on keeping rates near zero for the foreseeable future.

"Excess liquidity is already feeding property bubbles, commercial and residential, in certain cities," wrote Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, Scotland in a report this week.

He noted that China is acting aggressively. There have been eight increases to bank reserve ratio requirements and three interest rate hikes in the past few months. But China probably has only just begun to tighten.

"The latest data still suggest that the authorities are behind the curve, and have more to do," Milligan wrote.

China's 'insatiable' demand brings inflation risk
Despite these fears, it's worth remembering that China is clearly not on the verge of a 2008-style economic collapse. In addition, China's economy often tends to hit a soft patch around the Lunar New Year holiday.

So what may look bad now could turn out to be just the standard Chinese New Year slowdown. That appears to be what semiconductor giant Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500), a leading supplier of chips for phones in China, is banking on.

"We typically expect to see some noise around the Chinese New Year, and that was no exception this year," said Ron Slaymaker, head of investor relations for Texas Instruments, during a conference call with analysts Tuesday.

Slaymaker added that demand did dip in early February but strengthened later in the month. But he conceded that sales in Asia overall, including Japan, are likely to cool when compared to the U.S. and Europe.

Still, even if China's growth slows, the bigger concern would be what might happen if China doesn't go far enough to keep pricing pressures in check. The consequences of China losing the battle with inflation would be far worse than annual growth slowing from 10% to 7%.

"We're not worried about a hard landing in China. We're worried about China hardly landing," Steinmetz said.
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
No No No.....Jim Cramer says BUY! BUY! BUY!

jim_cramer_pounding_the_table_buy_buy_buy.jpg


;)

He's not the only one ...here's one of the Barron's of Bloomberg Lazlo Birinyi ( an ex Solomon Brother's gnome) saying there's a second wind in the sails of this historic bull rally ...he was one of the ones that called the bottom . (Bully for him! )


Birinyi Buys as Biggest Bull Rally Since `55 Hits Third Year
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-eisenhower-enters-third-year.html?cmpid=yhoo

By Michael Patterson, Whitney Kisling and Rita Nazareth - Mar 9, 2011 7:08 AM PT
data

Birinyi Associates Inc. founder Laszlo Birinyi. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg

The money managers who picked the global stock market bottom say now is no time to sell as the biggest equity rally since 1955 starts its third year.

Laszlo Birinyi, who told clients to buy as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, 2009, says gains that added about $28 trillion to global share values will outlast previous increases as investors who missed the first phase play catch-up. Valuations are still below historical averages, said Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who purchased stocks before the S&P 500’s 95 percent advance through yesterday.

Rallies in equities, corporate debt and commodities illustrate how the more than $12 trillion pumped into the financial system by governments and central banks is spurring a recovery from the worst global recession since the 1930s. While bears say prices will fall once stimulus ends, billionaire Kenneth Fisher and Byron Wien of Blackstone Group LP (BX) are betting on stocks whose profits are most tied to economic growth.
“These kinds of strong beginnings lead to long and durable bull markets,” Birinyi, who founded Westport, Connecticut-based research and money management firm Birinyi Associates Inc. in 1989 after a decade on the trading desk at Salomon Brothers, said in a March 7 phone interview. “While there will be corrections and while there will be pauses, we’re still of the view that this is a bull market that we expect to go on for several years.”
Previous Bull Markets

Even after almost doubling in 24 months, the S&P 500’s two- year return is 36 percentage points below the average bull- market gain of 131 percent since 1962, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates. The 730-day rally without a decline of 20 percent or more compares with an average duration of 1,407 days, the data show.
The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,316.06 at 10 a.m. in New York, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3 percent to 12,178.24.

Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW), the Richmond, Virginia-based mortgage guarantor and life insurer, increased the most in the S&P 500 since the market’s bottom, climbing more than 14-fold. General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP), the Chicago-based mall owner, led the MSCI All-Country World Index of 45 developed and emerging markets, rising 5,174 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Profit Growth

The two-year advance is the biggest for the S&P 500 since the rally following the end of the Korean War and the election of President Dwight D. Eisenhower, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and S&P. The index has risen in 18 of 24 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Five straight quarters of U.S. profit growth and the biggest yearly increase since 1988 have held down valuations, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The U.S. benchmark index is trading at 15.5 times reported earnings, compared with the average ratio of 19.7 at bull-market peaks. The S&P 500’s earnings yield, or annual income divided by the index price, is 2.96 percentage points higher than the payout on 10-year Treasuries, the widest gap at the two-year point of any bull market since 1962, the data show.

“I don’t think valuations are stretched,” Biggs, who oversees $1.4 billion as managing partner of New York-based Traxis Partners LP, said in a March 7 phone interview. “The next move in the S&P 500 is more likely to be up than down, and that move could be 10 percent to 15 percent.”
Fed Rates

When Biggs bought shares in March 2009, the purchases were a contrarian bet driven by what he said was the highest level of bearish sentiment ever. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. had collapsed six months earlier, Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said the economy was in “shambles” and New York University’s Nouriel Roubini, who foresaw the crisis, said the S&P 500 may fall to 600.

Stocks surged as record-low Federal Reserve interest rates, along with a $787 billion stimulus bill signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets, boosted investor confidence. Buying shares is a “potentially good deal” for long-term investors, Obama said six days before the slump ended.

Now Biggs is counting on economic and profit growth to spur gains. Citigroup Inc.’s Economic Surprise Index for the U.S., a gauge of how much reports are exceeding the median economist estimates in Bloomberg News surveys, surged to a record last week as manufacturing growth topped forecasts and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to an almost two-year low.


more ...
 

TNTBudSticker

Well-known member
Veteran
I got kicked,locked out by IP addy and since can't log on to one of Cramer's Website called www.stockpickr.com because I guess someone got jealous.I paper traded with gains at 300% for 3 years in a row.Even called the bottom too for the Dow.I saw an article that if oil went above $45 someplace else,The world will save a Trillion dollars.I think the Dow was at 6700 at that time then it went up and away.I posted it in a forum (btw the forum sucks over there since all the spamming and no one stops it).Then I got banned like 6 months ago for no reason other than I guess someone was following my picks.They need to sell subscriptions so that's fair to me I guess.. lol
If no one got into Gold,Silver and that was my hedge,one would have been way ahead.

I guess one could say that I'm a graduate since Cramer's trying to teach people how to make money and I guess I did alright.Then I get banned...lmao.. but at least they allow me to do the paper-trading contest they have over there.

I Would LOVE to Short MMG but paper-trading under $3.00 on most websites is not allowed except for Google.

Yeah...Cramer Still didn't hire me and I'll probably wouldn't pass the drug test.. LOL (nahh,I didn't apply so that's a joke there)
 
M

Mountain

Past is prologue .... and ya gotta often toggle back n forth between the daily & weekly charts as much as possible to see where the stocks been , not just the last 3mos but sometimes the entire 2yrs before . In the casse of EGY was skeptical & at these levels (and trip top)due alot more FA to see that a break out of this triple top was warranted ...or be looking to short.
Lot's of oil based stocks forming solid bases or at the least in solid short term consolidations. The IBD gods mentioned this today. RES is looking good and CRZO holding up well. They were mentioning stocks like HAL and PTEN among others. At the least with EGY it has set up a solid formation to launch from to challenge those old highs.

For tech stuff PWAV, which I've mentioned before, looks interesting. I played LNG on the way up but it'll be until like 2015 until they start exporting natty gas. Never saw it as a long term type holding.
 

Madrus Rose

post 69
Veteran
well the Optics cien fnsr jdsu jnpr all been trading flat as pancakes here after the big tumble & warning...will have to see how this plays out as the Chinese economy always takes a little dip around the new years as the article just posted discusses ...but the damage is done.

whether buying opp or no , keeping these in site for next few days & CIEN already has had 3 days down & holding up in here.

see if the No Fly zone gets an ok to quell libya's Kahdafi, see one of his sons leading a brigade trying to gain as much control as they can before the Allies step in .

Just a little wiggle day for the SLV silver frozen in here too
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slv&ql=1

chart is overbought big time
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94998463471

Lots of bear/bull scenarios out there in place but all news & oil specific, and whether the China economy is slowing down with touch of inflation is actually being controlled . But they are feeling the pain is obvious with the fnsr warning ...that buildout of networks was our big tech's bread n butter !
 
M

Mountain

As for China FMCN is doing very well. They're in advertising like VISN and those companies have some type of mutual stock ownership. CCME is in the same group in China. Regardless of what some news is coming out of China this company is doing very well. UTA (travel) is tanking but that seems more issue related as CTRP is doing OK.

JDSU looks like an island reversal in the making.
 

TNTBudSticker

Well-known member
Veteran
I played LNG on the way up but it'll be until like 2015 until they start exporting natty gas. Never saw it as a long term type holding.

I was just thinking about Natural gas too and have this graph that I've been holding for a Year.I think it's low right now and with oil going up,Nat Gas may be a good buy.This caught me because of the PE ratio at 12 with UGI.I think the fair value is around $26.00 coming from Zack's website.it pays dividends too.



Don't mind the red mark...I don't know why I put that there..lol

:edit: Ahhhhh Now I know why it's there..it was at that price during that time in Jan 2011
 

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