Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

Thanks for the chart gramps, pretty unnerving to look at. The fall will be greater this time, when will that be?

As long as the markets believe the central bank printing press can save them from everything, it will go only up. As you can see "fundamentals" are quite poor. This 7 year rally is all about faith and believing in the diety that central banks have become.

Years, months. It's all about watching the central banks juggle the Greece, China, Puerto Rico, things at the moment. If they unload money into all this and it carries on then years. They've been nailing it for the last 7 years. It goes on till it doesn't basically. Forget about trying to time markets perfectly.

With the Fed consistently saying that they are going to hike rates (.25% lololol) in Sept there should be some movement of money approaching that date. The US Treasury yields are betting on a December hike or beginning of next year. Do I feel another stock market "technical glitch" coming?

If you see the USD (US Dollar Index) continue to appreciate due to anticipation of a rate hike then watch the price of oil get hammered (and it's already breaking a $40 handle right now ($49.96 WTI today) . If WTI gets around $40-$44ish and stays there for several weeks then energy producer's balance sheets are going to start looking very fugly (ie busted out). Especially the most leveraged ones.

Commodities aren't going anywhere but down. All this free central bank money has allowed inventory gluts of oil, nat gas, houses, cars, stocks, bonds, cities people down live in, etc etc. Everyone is broke. The banks are producing a bunch of shit no one can afford to buy anymore and this leads to serious deflation (over supply and no aggregate demand).

But Ole' Yeller (Janet Yellen US FED) and the printing press can do some magical things as long as the people keep buying into the game. Draghi from the ECB worked at Goldman Sachs for years before he became the monster of Europe. Taking over countries like a monopoly game.

Anyway, USO is a fund you can go long on if you so dare or go short if you have the guts. That is if you care to watch and trade off these macro dynamics that always underlie the "SHORT TERM" part of this thread title (terms, time is relative).

I'm long oil three generations ago. If this down slide in WTI and Brent oil continues I'll eventually liquidate my business and go sit on the river, but who knows when. Ride the donkey till it falls over.

 

[yesum]

So we keep diverging till the stock market tanks, then commodities go on a tear and we get convergence, like in '03? That is what I take away from the chart.

USO... I lost around 30% in 2 weeks when I went long UNG a few years back, which is a natural gas etf. Energy etf's give me the willies now.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Or the S&P meets the commodity line all the way down. Mind you that big bump in commodities after the 08 collapse was solely do to central bank money flows coming into the oilfield. The fact remains, aggregate demand is the long term problem. No matter how much new debt is created, and we've create trillions since 08, it isn't producing GDP growth anymore. Or the cost benefit ratio is approaching 0.

Now say the central banks come out and say they are going to print trillions of dollars forever and forever and ever at the next crisis, this the day of reckoning may go on for several more years.

It's so hard to tell these days because fundamentals mean nothing. We are all betting on some ivory tower asshole running the central banks an thus pulling the levers of the global economy.

 

[SpasticGramps]

USO... I lost around 30% in 2 weeks when I went long UNG a few years back, which is a natural gas etf. Energy etf's give me the willies now.

I'm basically picking up pennies in front of a steam roller at the moment, but I was born into the patch. I've hidden enough pennies so that it won't hurt a lot when I eventually get run over.

The whole commodity sector gives me the willies right now. The chart kind of says where it is all going.

 

[Green Squall]

What's up with gold?? I've been sitting on some money, waiting to buy my next gold eagle, hoping it would hit 1,000. Now all of a sudden it's jumping way back up again. Should I be patient or buy now? Was that as low as gold was going to go the last few weeks?

 

[SpasticGramps]

China jumped head over heels into the real currency war this morning. They started devaluing the yuan because the economy has basically crapped out along with the stock market crash that's wiped out the peasants.

So, like us, when faced with the abyss they are starting to print money and really jump into the race to the bottom.

Like the surprise Swiss central bank currency move several months ago, this rocked the market because it's basically the china central bank (PBOC) letting everyone (the market) know how screwed the situation is. Read it's a very desperate move considering what they've already done in the past few months.

Watch for all the other emerging market countries like India, Thailand, Russia, etc to starting printing like hell in the next several weeks. China making this move is a big deal. Because of it's size other country's central banks will have to react.

Financial chaos and political desperation are bullish for gold when the root problem is currency debasement.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Here are graphical/technical representations of what currency wars look like.

The Swiss "Move"

These are major moves that serve as little tactical economic nukes, essentially, on other countries. The rule of thumb is currency wars beget trade wars, which beget global wars. So thousands of years of history says, but I'm sure this time is different....

 

[yesum]

What's up with gold?? I've been sitting on some money, waiting to buy my next gold eagle, hoping it would hit 1,000. Now all of a sudden it's jumping way back up again. Should I be patient or buy now? Was that as low as gold was going to go the last few weeks?

I have gold at 1300 by the end of the year( just a hunch). I think it has bottomed. Oil may have a bit to go down though.

I think gold will resume the upwards pattern now but do not expect rapid moves up unless a crisis occurs.

To Gramps, this is not a war yet just a devaluation. Ir remains to be seen if this cascades into something really bad. The China economy only grew at 6% so that is lower than before but not bad at all compared to the rest of the world.

 

[SpasticGramps]

To Gramps, this is not a war yet just a devaluation. Ir remains to be seen if this cascades into something really bad. The China economy only grew at 6% so that is lower than before but not bad at all compared to the rest of the world.

I'd be very weary of believing those China growth numbers. You should look at the energy consumption to get a better metric on true growth.

Also, they moved their currency 4% in two days. War, devaluation. That's just arguing semantics. China doing this is a very big deal.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I'm afraid the oil patch is about to go belly up. If oil closes below $42.24 then next technical stop is the 2009 lows when banks were imploding and whatnot. Goldman said that this is the last ditch "support" before "total capitulation". Anyway.

How to (short term) trade China's "nuclear option".

From bank societe generale (one of frances largest banks) via Bloomberg

China triggering "nuclear option" of devaluation may be sign eco challanges are "much more severe than perceived thus far," SocGen strategists led by Ramon Verastegui write in note.

China eco challenges pose risk to global growth/inflation, Fed Sept. liftoff scenario, could further lower ylds at long end of curve.

Selloff in commod prices, related industries may continue as mkt discounts China slowdown, risk of supply glut from unwinding of CCFDs

Buy USD contingent flattener floors; 6M 5y-30y USD curve floor, strike ATMF, contingent on USD 2y

Buy TLT $126/128 call spread for 71c, buy Sept. IYR $77 call, sell SPY $214 call for 0.38%

Buy SocGen Airline basket (ALK JBLU DAL LUV UAL AAL SAVE HA ALGT)

Buy EWC Oct 22/24 put spread for 40c and Australia (Buy EWA Oct 17/19 put spread for 35c

FYI, the PBOC is using USD and selling US bonds to manipulate their currency.

And you are right about it not being war just yet yesum.

But since everyone is basically screwed the central banks can only do one thing. Print, print, print. The catch 22 is fixed in for this to escalate to full blown currency wars. No central bank can stop monetizing all asset classes because when they do the music will stop and everyone will have to go home.

So we are stuck in the negative feedback loop until something major breaks like it did in '08 and the high priests of printing and bailouts are trotted back out in the limelight to steal some more money.

FYI, oil and commodities are telling the story right now. They are the canary in the coal mine.

 

[bombadil.360]

I can't help but shake my head when I read things like "russia is an emerging market" LOL!

is having oil and stealing almost every sale from it, or selling weapons to terrorist states considered part of the 'emerging market' scheme?

no, seriously...

 

[yesum]

I have a s and p 500 bear or 'short' etf right now, my only position. Should I leave it, get out, or double down?

Is this the start of a long term correction? I was thinking this would be a up year for the market but am getting a little scared right now. The second largest economy going into the crapper would take everyone along down the dumper with them.

China is such a secretive and peculiar economy that I have no idea what their real situation is.

Leaning to go all in short on the US market. I would like to short the emerging markets but do not know how. Today it went 537 down on the DOW which is 3%. Making money this fast is a real high.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Is this the start of a long term correction? I was thinking this would be a up year for the market but am getting a little scared right now. The second largest economy going into the crapper would take everyone along down the dumper with them.

I regret not opening an account and buying the VIX when it was at ~12.

Dow Theory indicators say sell. Lots of technical breakdowns in the market and commodities are starting the rout plumbing close to lows of the last financial crisis. Everything is basically shit. No aggregate demand and stimulus really isn't doing so much. It all points down, right?

But, these central bank fucks could double, triple, quadruple down too, and kill all the shorts as they have done for the last 7 years. The Global Central Bank Put under the markets, that has created all this misallocated junk investment, print quadrillions and the markets levitate back up. Who knows.

I think equities revert to where commodities are at some point which is a lot lower than we are now. But, I my money plays elsewhere too. I'm already getting donkey punched.

Relative to crude that puts the DOW around 8,000 (??) or something last time oil was this low in March 2009 (FYI, the launch of QE1 the "The Great Experiment")

QEmegaBlastEva$$$ is coming at some point and shorts will get crushed. Their bodies and fundamental reason lay dead, strewn across the trading floors of yore.

 

[SpasticGramps]

We still have a ways down until the S&P catches back up to the trendline for the Fed's balance sheet (ie. the juice line).

I would think that this could be a large support line for the markets. Puts the S&P somewhere around 1900. Another 200pts from Friday close.

QE4EvAmeGaBlast$$$ would be attempted once this support line is seriously tested to the downside IMO.

All signs point to a sound short term short bet, but it's hard to beat the house when it's rigged. Pennies in front of steamrollers that Yellen and Draghi are driving.

 

[idiit]

all markets including the stock market are controlled/manipulated. the ability to virtually create frn's called $'s out of thin air enables the elites to create $billions at any time, send the frn$'s to an allied bank to make purchases to pump up the stock market.

it did not happen last week; if it did it wasn't enough to stop the carnage.

there is a very good chance that the major stock markets could be halted Monday; just a technical glitch of course.

it's easy to buy assets; even paper lies masquerading as assets.

try selling stocks during a stock collapse.

 

[SpasticGramps]

So, global carnage in the markets as they opened in Asia. Shanghai is down 7%, WTI is comfortably into the $39 handle with heavy selling. DOW Futures done 1.3%. 10YR Treasury into the 1% handle. Someone load the printers and some f'ing ink cause it's bad out there. Yellen, Draghi, Beuller... Beuller??

The ETF short may make you some money tomorrow yesum.

 

[yesum]

Wild times. ^^ I found a short etf for emerging markets afterall. Considering going all in to catch this drop, which appears to be more than a very short correction. More like the global economy slowing down by a lot.

There will be stimulus schemes and all kinds of money printed and whatnot, but a fundamentally overvalued market will correct no matter what. This should go down another 20% and if things get screwy, well then look out.

 

[idiit]

the plug is being deliberately pulled. no stimulus will work. we are now on our way to precious metal backed ( real collateral instead of debt based) global financial system.

the ponzy is over my friends.

 

[The iD]

u are optimistic idiit, imo. just as likely for a push to one world gov and fully controlled digital currency. us looks to open limit down. gl and stay frosty,

 

[idiit]

there is a very good chance that the major stock markets could be halted Monday; just a technical glitch of course

^^ an idiit

Quote Panic!! All Major US Equity Indices Halted
08/24/2015 09:24



Quote Nasdaq was the first to be halted at 0758ET.

The Dow is now down 850 points from Friday's close and halted...

The S&P 500 Futures is halted for the first time in history

ummmmm.....

edited to add: looks like they had 'second tots' and reopened. here comes the calvary ( aka plunge protection team).