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Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

moose eater

Well-known member
Premium user
I think that tracks with what I(and many others) are seeing, more extremes
warmer but nature won't give you a free ride, warm snap/cold snap and less moderate temps
not to mention extreme precipitation events, or lack thereof, northeast is getting into drought heading into December - wtf?
Still happening. A few mornings ago we were -30 f. on the front porch mercury and glass thermometer, and then the last day and a half we've had what even NOAA often refers to as 'frizzle', which is misting rain or slightly larger drops sometimes, occurring even when the air temps are well below freezing temps, often/sometimes between anywhere from 0 f to +25 f, encasing the vehicles in stippled tiny ice crystals and sometimes making driving a motherfucker by glazing the roads.

And not relative to what I once assumed, which was warmer upper atmosphere. More of some weird chemistry at play.

We've seen 80- and 90-degree temperature shifts in as little as 24 hours years ago, when we might bounce from a period of minus 50 f. (-50 f) and get a Chinook wind from the southern coast up over the Alaska Range, and bounce us up to over +30 f. in very short order, at which point we'd be acclimated to the preceding cold and put on t-shirts and be outside grilling and shit.

But this more recent stuff is a lot like this last summer, an unpredictable rollercoaster ride.
 

Eltitoguay

Well-known member
I think that tracks with what I(and many others) are seeing, more extremes
warmer but nature won't give you a free ride, warm snap/cold snap and less moderate temps
not to mention extreme precipitation events, or lack thereof, northeast is getting into drought heading into December - wtf?
The fact is that believing that climate change was little more than being able to grow haze outdoors in Alaska and avocados in Iceland is a childish vision that even part of our political class and its public have.
The initial phase of climate change, where the gradual rise in temperatures was the most observable (that was the still reversible phase), has already passed.

We are already in the next phase, which is irreversible (now it is about adapting to the new situation and trying not to get worse): we have added so much energy to the atmosphere, that now the great disasters begin, with all the possible meteorological phenomena much more energetic and destructive.

The next phase could be the total alteration of the large ocean currents, and even changes in the movement and axis of the earth due to the movement and redistribution of the oceanic water mass.
 

nepalnt21

FRRRRRResh!
Veteran
well, my house will prolly get blown over or float away, but maybe the global economic impact will finally give conservatives the kick in the pants they need to help us save ourselves from extinction! oh, who am i kidding? it's all planned: musk and bezos will live together in harmony on a permaculture barge in l.o.o. while zuckerberg'll hide in his hidey hole in hawaii. humanity will be fine!

as long as they can engineer a way to have babies with eachother
 

Eltitoguay

Well-known member
But I think that specifically, it is not due to climate change, although human activity may have an influence.
I was referring to alterations in the axis and movement of the planet:

How climate change is changing the Earth's axis of rotation:​


Earth Sciences​

The melting of the poles modifies the speed at which the Earth rotates :​


PHYSICS

Melting ice is slowing down the Earth's rotation :​


If all the ice on Earth melted and flowed into the ocean, what would happen to the planet's rotation? :​

 

Eltitoguay

Well-known member
scientist tell us already that the Gulf Stream is slowing. this is NOT a "good thing"...:eek:

The Atlantic Ocean is heading toward a tipping point that could trigger extreme climate change within decades.

What will happen if the Atlantic current stops? :​




The Gulf Stream could collapse at 'any moment': what would be the consequences?​

The ocean current system that regulates the planet's temperature could collapse by 2025-2030 due to climate change, scientists have concluded.
A new prediction from scientists at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is close to a tipping point that would severely disrupt the climate . Experts warn that critical ocean currents, which transport heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the far reaches of the Atlantic region, could completely collapse sometime after 2025 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate.


An ocean current key to global climate could collapse in the coming years​

  • A study published in Nature warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening​

  • This collapse could occur as early as 2025 and probably by mid-century, much earlier than previously anticipated.​

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), one of the main regulators of the global climate system, could collapse much earlier than expected, as early as 2025 and probably by mid-century, triggering momentous changes to the Earth's climate.

A study published in Nature on Tuesday concludes that rising greenhouse gas emissions are already showing signs of a possible collapse a century earlier than previously predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the main international group of experts on the subject.

Among these signs, discovered through observation, is a loss of resilience and a critical slowdown, which could lead to a "tipping point" in the near future. This current moves warm water from the South Atlantic to the Northern Hemisphere, warming the climate in this region.

Its weakening, which is already being observed according to current studies, could lead to an increase in storms and heat waves in Europe. The cause is climate change caused by increased emissions, and the risk of destabilization increases according to the intensity of emissions, as determined by the IPCC .

The melting of the poles affects the slowdown​

This circulation is slowed down in part by the cooling of the water, which is explained by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the decrease in the level of ice in the Arctic and the increase in precipitation in the increasingly warmer northern seas.

Its decline in a warming world may cause the atmosphere to offset some of the heat drop brought by AMOC, leading to decreased precipitation in mid-latitudes and rising sea levels in North America.

The study, by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen of the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, found that a decline in AMOC occurred between 2004 and 2012. They estimate that the "tipping point" will occur in 2057 , but the time range for the transition of this current to occur is from 2025 to 2095.

The IPCC previously predicted that AMOC would weaken over the 21st century, but its collapse was not expected until 2300 and was unclear in its predictions.


Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation:​

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.


The Gulf Stream: The Most Foretold Catastrophe :​

(...)In October 2003, the Pentagon received a report entitled An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security . I think this translation is unnecessary. This study admitted that climate change was a reality, that it could have catastrophic consequences, and that it would affect societies around the world. President Bush declared this report “confidential”, because it began by admitting what his government was denying: climate change. But political filters always end up leaking, and soon the press picked up on the report, jokingly called the “Yoda Report” , since its promoter, Andrew Marshall (already an old man), a long-time scenario planner for the Pentagon, had also directed the Reagan-era project known as “Star Wars” , aimed at controlling the world from platforms located in orbit. It can still be downloaded from some websites.

My very synthetic summary of the “Yoda Report” would be this:

There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant climate change will occur in the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are expected to remain so in the future, the effects of global warming are potentially manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming may lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of ocean thermal currents, which may lead to harsher winter conditions, sharp reductions in soil moisture, and stronger winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant portion of the world's food production. Without adequate preparation, the result may be a significant decline in the ability of the Earth's environment to support human life.

Research suggests that once temperatures rise above a threshold, severe weather can develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5 to 10 degrees in a single decade. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that altered climate patterns could last up to a century, as occurred when ocean currents collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, in the extreme case, they could last up to 1,000 years, as occurred during the period known as the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.

In this report, as an alternative to the gradual climate warming scenarios that are so common, we draw a scenario of abrupt climate change structured as the 100-year phenomenon that took place about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:


  • Average annual drop in temperatures of around 5 degrees in Asia and North America, and 6 degrees in Northern Europe
  • Average annual temperature increase of more than 4 degrees in key areas of Australia, South America and South Africa.
  • Drought persists for most of the decade in key agricultural regions and in regions where water resources for major population centers in Europe and the East Coast of North America originate.
  • Winter storms and winds are intensifying, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific are experiencing stronger winds.
The Report explores how such a scenario of abrupt climate change could potentially destabilise the geopolitical environment, leading to conflict, confrontation, and even war due to scarcity of resources such as:
  1. Food shortages due to reduced global net agricultural production
  2. Reduced availability and quality of freshwater in key regions due to changing rainfall patterns, causing more frequent flooding and droughts
  3. Disruption of access to energy supplies due to the spread of ice and sea storms
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions will rise across the globe, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so can build virtual fortresses around their country, reserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations, especially those with longstanding feuds with their neighbors, may start fighting to access food, fresh water, or energy.

-----------

In short, the “Yoda Report”, subtitled “Imagining the Unthinkable” , attempted to raise awareness among American politicians and military leaders about the evidence that climate change was there, and that, far from being a slow and gradual process, it could accelerate at any given moment and produce a scenario of abrupt change, with catastrophic consequences in many particularly fragile or unstable countries, and that, in addition, they happened to have essential strategic resources to ensure the “American Way of Life” (especially oil).

That is to say, it was admitted that this catastrophic change could seriously affect many countries, causing droughts, famines, migrations... but the important thing was not to prevent, avoid, mitigate... these sufferings, but rather how to ensure political and military control of the areas in crisis to ensure the flow of resources that feed the American wasteful society (which, as a quick reference, consumes on average twice as much energy per inhabitant as in Western Europe).
(...)
The “Yoda Report” even assumed that “abrupt change” could occur in a few years. It has been 20 years since this report was published, and this sudden global change has not occurred, although evidence of catastrophic local changes is multiplying, including the risk of interruption of the Gulf Stream. Once again, for humanity, the evidence of the risks does not imply rational and coordinated action to avoid them. The most intelligent thing that is being done are local policies of mitigation-adaptation to climate change, which, accepting that change is already occurring, aim to reduce the catastrophic consequences of it, and the suffering of the population. In Spain we should assume our special fragility and focus on preparing for what is coming. But some continue to make a lot of money by maintaining the current situation, as we are seeing with the electric oligopoly. As long as we continue to allow it...

 
Last edited:

igrowone

Well-known member
Veteran
time for an update, seeing a pattern of interest that I've seen before
the arctic cap is entering new record lows, quite the drop in ice production
and we're about to see a surge of arctic air down in our beloved eastern USA
not a coincidence imho, this is a leak out of the arctic to the south
back in the day this was a non event, just normal weather
but now we're seeing warmer air infiltrating up into the arctic with these surges to the south
I'd call it a ticking time bomb but that's too weak
this is how the arctic explodes when pushed beyond its limits
1732720874347.png
 

Hiddenjems

Well-known member
The fact is that believing that climate change was little more than being able to grow haze outdoors in Alaska and avocados in Iceland is a childish vision that even part of our political class and its public have.
The initial phase of climate change, where the gradual rise in temperatures was the most observable (that was the still reversible phase), has already passed.

We are already in the next phase, which is irreversible (now it is about adapting to the new situation and trying not to get worse): we have added so much energy to the atmosphere, that now the great disasters begin, with all the possible meteorological phenomena much more energetic and destructive.

The next phase could be the total alteration of the large ocean currents, and even changes in the movement and axis of the earth due to the movement and redistribution of the oceanic water mass.
No part of our climate is non reversible. We’ve had ice ages after global average temps were 30* warmer than now.

We’re coming off of an all time low atmospheric co2 concentration. When plants evolved it was well over triple what it is now.
 

Porky82

Well-known member

The Atlantic Ocean is heading toward a tipping point that could trigger extreme climate change within decades.

What will happen if the Atlantic current stops? :​




The Gulf Stream could collapse at 'any moment': what would be the consequences?​

The ocean current system that regulates the planet's temperature could collapse by 2025-2030 due to climate change, scientists have concluded.
A new prediction from scientists at the University of Copenhagen in Denmark warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is close to a tipping point that would severely disrupt the climate . Experts warn that critical ocean currents, which transport heat, cold and precipitation between the tropics and the far reaches of the Atlantic region, could completely collapse sometime after 2025 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate.


An ocean current key to global climate could collapse in the coming years​

  • A study published in Nature warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is weakening​

  • This collapse could occur as early as 2025 and probably by mid-century, much earlier than previously anticipated.​

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), one of the main regulators of the global climate system, could collapse much earlier than expected, as early as 2025 and probably by mid-century, triggering momentous changes to the Earth's climate.

A study published in Nature on Tuesday concludes that rising greenhouse gas emissions are already showing signs of a possible collapse a century earlier than previously predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the main international group of experts on the subject.

Among these signs, discovered through observation, is a loss of resilience and a critical slowdown, which could lead to a "tipping point" in the near future. This current moves warm water from the South Atlantic to the Northern Hemisphere, warming the climate in this region.

Its weakening, which is already being observed according to current studies, could lead to an increase in storms and heat waves in Europe. The cause is climate change caused by increased emissions, and the risk of destabilization increases according to the intensity of emissions, as determined by the IPCC .

The melting of the poles affects the slowdown​

This circulation is slowed down in part by the cooling of the water, which is explained by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the decrease in the level of ice in the Arctic and the increase in precipitation in the increasingly warmer northern seas.

Its decline in a warming world may cause the atmosphere to offset some of the heat drop brought by AMOC, leading to decreased precipitation in mid-latitudes and rising sea levels in North America.

The study, by Peter Ditlevsen and Susanne Ditlevsen of the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, found that a decline in AMOC occurred between 2004 and 2012. They estimate that the "tipping point" will occur in 2057 , but the time range for the transition of this current to occur is from 2025 to 2095.

The IPCC previously predicted that AMOC would weaken over the 21st century, but its collapse was not expected until 2300 and was unclear in its predictions.


Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation:​

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.


The Gulf Stream: The Most Foretold Catastrophe :​

(...)In October 2003, the Pentagon received a report entitled An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security . I think this translation is unnecessary. This study admitted that climate change was a reality, that it could have catastrophic consequences, and that it would affect societies around the world. President Bush declared this report “confidential”, because it began by admitting what his government was denying: climate change. But political filters always end up leaking, and soon the press picked up on the report, jokingly called the “Yoda Report” , since its promoter, Andrew Marshall (already an old man), a long-time scenario planner for the Pentagon, had also directed the Reagan-era project known as “Star Wars” , aimed at controlling the world from platforms located in orbit. It can still be downloaded from some websites.

My very synthetic summary of the “Yoda Report” would be this:

There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant climate change will occur in the 21st century. Because changes have been gradual so far, and are expected to remain so in the future, the effects of global warming are potentially manageable for most nations. Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming may lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of ocean thermal currents, which may lead to harsher winter conditions, sharp reductions in soil moisture, and stronger winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant portion of the world's food production. Without adequate preparation, the result may be a significant decline in the ability of the Earth's environment to support human life.

Research suggests that once temperatures rise above a threshold, severe weather can develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5 to 10 degrees in a single decade. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that altered climate patterns could last up to a century, as occurred when ocean currents collapsed 8,200 years ago, or, in the extreme case, they could last up to 1,000 years, as occurred during the period known as the Younger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.

In this report, as an alternative to the gradual climate warming scenarios that are so common, we draw a scenario of abrupt climate change structured as the 100-year phenomenon that took place about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:


  • Average annual drop in temperatures of around 5 degrees in Asia and North America, and 6 degrees in Northern Europe
  • Average annual temperature increase of more than 4 degrees in key areas of Australia, South America and South Africa.
  • Drought persists for most of the decade in key agricultural regions and in regions where water resources for major population centers in Europe and the East Coast of North America originate.
  • Winter storms and winds are intensifying, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific are experiencing stronger winds.
The Report explores how such a scenario of abrupt climate change could potentially destabilise the geopolitical environment, leading to conflict, confrontation, and even war due to scarcity of resources such as:
  1. Food shortages due to reduced global net agricultural production
  2. Reduced availability and quality of freshwater in key regions due to changing rainfall patterns, causing more frequent flooding and droughts
  3. Disruption of access to energy supplies due to the spread of ice and sea storms
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions will rise across the globe, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so can build virtual fortresses around their country, reserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations, especially those with longstanding feuds with their neighbors, may start fighting to access food, fresh water, or energy.

-----------

In short, the “Yoda Report”, subtitled “Imagining the Unthinkable” , attempted to raise awareness among American politicians and military leaders about the evidence that climate change was there, and that, far from being a slow and gradual process, it could accelerate at any given moment and produce a scenario of abrupt change, with catastrophic consequences in many particularly fragile or unstable countries, and that, in addition, they happened to have essential strategic resources to ensure the “American Way of Life” (especially oil).

That is to say, it was admitted that this catastrophic change could seriously affect many countries, causing droughts, famines, migrations... but the important thing was not to prevent, avoid, mitigate... these sufferings, but rather how to ensure political and military control of the areas in crisis to ensure the flow of resources that feed the American wasteful society (which, as a quick reference, consumes on average twice as much energy per inhabitant as in Western Europe).
(...)
The “Yoda Report” even assumed that “abrupt change” could occur in a few years. It has been 20 years since this report was published, and this sudden global change has not occurred, although evidence of catastrophic local changes is multiplying, including the risk of interruption of the Gulf Stream. Once again, for humanity, the evidence of the risks does not imply rational and coordinated action to avoid them. The most intelligent thing that is being done are local policies of mitigation-adaptation to climate change, which, accepting that change is already occurring, aim to reduce the catastrophic consequences of it, and the suffering of the population. In Spain we should assume our special fragility and focus on preparing for what is coming. But some continue to make a lot of money by maintaining the current situation, as we are seeing with the electric oligopoly. As long as we continue to allow it...

Very interesting. 👍
 

Porky82

Well-known member
i never thought i'd say this, but maybe matt walsh is right?

in terms of being able to pass a proficiency test to vote, or whatever he said
Most of the 72 million dullards that voted Donny would struggle to read the questions let alone answer them correctly.
 

Porky82

Well-known member
The fact is that believing that climate change was little more than being able to grow haze outdoors in Alaska and avocados in Iceland is a childish vision that even part of our political class and its public have.
The initial phase of climate change, where the gradual rise in temperatures was the most observable (that was the still reversible phase), has already passed.

We are already in the next phase, which is irreversible (now it is about adapting to the new situation and trying not to get worse): we have added so much energy to the atmosphere, that now the great disasters begin, with all the possible meteorological phenomena much more energetic and destructive.

The next phase could be the total alteration of the large ocean currents, and even changes in the movement and axis of the earth due to the movement and redistribution of the oceanic water mass.
Unfortunately this is probably exactly what will happen!
We deserve every bit of it we have done nothing but destroy everything we come into contact with. We are parasites destroying our only host.
Capitalist corporate greed!!
 

armedoldhippy

Well-known member
Veteran
Adaptation usually takes a while. 🤔
certain species of flora and fauna are quicker, many take hundreds if not thousands of years. the planet is gonna lose a shitload of diversity it has taken millenia to develop. i'm going out on a pretty stout looking branch here & will predict mass starvation unless humanity has a taste for things we'd really rather not eat...like Soylent Green. the grain crops much of the world relies on now is ALREADY in trouble...
 

Hiddenjems

Well-known member
certain species of flora and fauna are quicker, many take hundreds if not thousands of years. the planet is gonna lose a shitload of diversity it has taken millenia to develop. i'm going out on a pretty stout looking branch here & will predict mass starvation unless humanity has a taste for things we'd really rather not eat...like Soylent Green. the grain crops much of the world relies on now is ALREADY in trouble...
Humans are the fastest adapting species there is. Something as simple as changing clothes and we can live about anywhere.
 
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