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Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

Porky82

Porky82

Well-known member
Frosty Nuggets said:
Coldest Christmas day in 20 years, so far we haven't had summer in South Australia we actually had snow in some parts, so tell me again about climate change?
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global-warming-hoax-cold-56a754b03df78cf77294b089.jpg
 
trichrider

trichrider

Kiss My Ring
Veteran

Solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere: solved and unsolved questions​

www.frontiersin.org Katya Georgieva1,2*†
www.frontiersin.org
Svetlana Veretenenko3†
  • 1Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Space Research and Technologies Institute, Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 2Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Climate, Atmosphere, and Water Research Institute, Sofia, Bulgaria
  • 3Russian Academy of Sciences, Ioffe Institute, Saint Petersburg, Russia
The influence of the Sun on the Earth’s atmosphere and climate has been a matter of hot debate for more than two centuries. In spite of the correlations found between the sunspot numbers and various atmospheric parameters, the mechanisms for such influences are not quite clear yet. Though great progress has been recently made, a major problem remains: the correlations are not stable, they may strengthen, weaken, disappear, and even change sign depending on the time period. None of the proposed so far mechanisms explains this temporal variability. The basis of all solar activity is the solar magnetic field which cyclically oscillates between its two components—poloidal and toroidal. We first briefly describe the operation of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal and back, the evaluated relative variations of these two components, and their geoeffective manifestations. We pay special attention to the reconstruction of the solar irradiance as the key natural driver of climate. We point at some problems in reconstructing the long-term irradiance variations and the implications of the different irradiance composite series on the estimation of the role of the Sun in climate change. We also comment on the recent recalibration of the sunspot number as the only instrumentally measured parameter before 1874, and therefore of crucial importance for reconstructing the solar irradiance variations and their role in climate change. We summarize the main proposed mechanisms of solar influences on the atmosphere, and list some of the modelling and experimental results either confirming or questioning them. Two irradiance-driven mechanisms have been proposed. The “bottom-up” mechanism is based on the enhanced absorption of solar irradiance by the oceans in relatively cloud-free equatorial and subtropical regions, amplified by changes in the temperature gradients, circulation, and cloudiness. The “top-down” mechanism involves absorption by the stratospheric ozone of solar UV radiation whose variability is much greater than that of the visible one, and changes of large-scale circulation patterns like the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric North Atlantic Oscillation. The positive phase of the tropospheric North Atlantic Oscillation indicative of a strong vortex is found to lag by a couple of years the enhanced UV in Smax. It was however shown that this positive response is not due to lagged UV effects but instead to precipitating energetic particles which also peak a couple of years after Smax. The solar wind and its transients modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays which are the main source of ionization of the Earth’s atmosphere below ∼50 km. This modulation leads to modulation of the production of aerosols which are cloud condensation nuclei, and to modulation of cloudiness. Increased cloudiness decreases the solar irradiance reaching the low atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. Variations of the galactic cosmic rays also lead to variations of the electric currents and the ionospheric potential in the polar caps which may intensify microphysical processes in clouds and thus also cause cloudiness variations. Solar energetic particles are produced during eruptive events at the Sun. They produce reactive odd hydrogen HOx and nitrogen NOx which catalytically destroy ozone in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere—“direct effect.” NOx which are long-lived in the lack of photoionization during the polar night, can descend to lower altitudes and destroy ozone there producing a delayed “indirect effect.” In the absence of sunlight ozone absorbs longwave outgoing radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere. Ozone depletion associated with ionization increases leads to cooling of the polar middle atmosphere, enhancing the temperature contrast between polar and midlatitudes and, thus, the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex. Solar energetic particles are powerful but sporadic and rare events. An additional source of energetic particles are the electrons trapped in the Earth’s magnetosphere which during geomagnetic disturbances are accelerated and precipitate into the atmosphere. They are less energetic but are always present. Their effects are the same as that of the solar energetic particles: additional production of reactive HOx and NOx which destroy ozone resulting in a stronger vortex and a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. It has been shown that the reversals of the correlations between solar activity and atmospheric parameters have a periodicity of ∼60 years and are related to the evolution of the main forms of large-scale atmospheric circulation whose occurrence has a similar periodicity. The large-scale circulation forms are in turn influenced by the state of the polar vortex which can affect the troposphere-stratosphere interaction via the propagation of planetary waves. Two solar activity agents are supposed to affect the stratospheric polar vortex: spectral solar irradiance through the “top-down” mechanism, and energetic particles. Increased UV irradiance was found to lead to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, while increased energetic particles result in a positive phase. Solar irradiance, like sunspots, is related to the solar toroidal field, and energetic particle precipitation is related to the solar poloidal field. In the course of the solar cycle the irradiance is maximum in sunspot maximum, and particle precipitation peaks strongly in the cycle’s declining phase. The solar poloidal and toroidal fields are the two faces of the solar large-scale magnetic field. They are closely connected, but because they are generated in different domains and because of the randomness involved in the generation of the poloidal field from the toroidal field, on longer time-scales their variations differ. As a result, in some periods poloidal field-related solar drivers prevail, in other periods toroidal field-related drivers prevail. These periods vary cyclically. When the poloidal field-related drivers prevail, the stratospheric polar vortex is stronger, and the correlation between solar activity and atmospheric parameters is positive. When toroidal field-related drivers prevail, the vortex is weaker and the correlations are negative.......

6 Summary and conclusion​

The basis of all solar activity is the large-scale solar magnetic field oscillating between its two components, poloidal and toroidal. Geoeffective agents of the solar toroidal field are solar irradiance, solar flares, and CME’s. The manifestations of the solar poloidal field are the slow solar wind, and HSS’s from solar coronal holes.

Numerous studies have found statistically significant correlations between solar activity and atmospheric parameters. However, the variations of the solar forcings are believed to be too small to explain them, so amplification mechanisms have been proposed. Some of them are related to solar poloidal field-related, other to toroidal field-related drivers.

Many studies revealed changes in the correlation sign between characteristics of the lower atmosphere and sunspot activity. None of the mechanisms listed above explains this instability of the solar-atmospheric influences.

Cyclonic processes at extratropical latitudes intensify or weaken with increasing GCR’s with a period of ∼60 years. A similar ∼60-year variability is observed in numerous climatic characteristic, and also in the prevalence of the large-scale circulation forms. The reversals of correlations are around the turning points in the evolution of the main large-scale circulation forms, which are in turn affected by the stratospheric polar vortex. Therefore, the changes in the sign of the correlations and circulation epochs may be associated with the changes in the state of the vortex.

NAO and its hemispheric analogue NAM are proxy for the state of the polar vortex. The vortex is strong in their positive phase which peaks strongly a couple of years after Smax/UV maximum and coincides with EEP maximum, while increased UV in Smax is related to negative NAO/NAM phases and a weak vortex.

The solar poloidal magnetic field and toroidal field are the two faces of the large-scale solar magnetic field, but there is no one-to-one correspondence between them, because they are generated in different domains, and because of the randomness involved in the toroidal-to-poloidal field transformation. They have opposite cyclic long-term variations with a period of ∼60 years. The results cited here imply that when the relative impact of poloidal/toroidal solar magnetic field-related manifestations prevails, NAO is in its positive/negative phase, the polar vortex is strong/weak, and atmospheric parameters positively/negatively correlated with solar activity.

www.frontiersin.org

Solar influences on the Earth’s atmosphere: solved and unsolved questions

The influence of the Sun on the Earth’s atmosphere and climate has been a matter of hot debate for more than two centuries. In spite of the correlations found between the sunspot numbers and various atmospheric parameters, the mechanisms for such influences are not quite clear yet. Though great...
www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org

......................

A "Textbook" Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Appears To Be Unfolding​

by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Dec 24, 2023 - 01:00 PM
Meteorologists on social media channel X are posting weather models about the increasing threat of a so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) over the Arctic, which could unleash wintry weather across the eastern half of the US in the new year.
"A textbook sudden stratospheric warming event looks to be unfolding," private weather forecaster BAM Weather (BAMWX).
Judah Cohen, Ph.D. and an atmospheric and environmental scientist who studies the polar vortex, told FOX Weather an SSW event takes "about two weeks for the effects of the sudden stratospheric warming to impact our weather."
Cohen expects that cold air will pour into the Lower 48 in the new year, although the specifics of the event remain uncertain.
Yale Climate Connections wrote in a recent note, "The odds of a snow-favoring East Coast cold wave will be boosted if a sudden stratospheric warming happens to develop in January."
"Sudden stratospheric warmings involve a rapid and dramatic rise in temperature — as much as 80 degrees Fahrenheit — within the polar stratosphere, together with a disruption in the stratospheric polar vortex. That disruption typically either splits the vortex or pushes it southward, along with associated Arctic air masses," the weather service ran by Yale Center for Environmental Communication. And it's the splitting of the polar vortex that delivers the blast of Arctic air to the Lower 48 region.

Cohen posted, "All models now agree on a Polar Vortex stretch. Major warming still possible."


Meteorologist Mark Margavage said, "The 12z EPS Control run is showing the granddaddy of all Polar Vortex disruptions with a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event and split of the PV. This would be the most impactful scenario of the 4 presented today."


BAMWX forecasts "a **late Jan into Feb** legit winter pattern for the central/eastern US!"


"It appears as if there could be a legitimate risk developing for a mid to late Jan major blast of Arcitic air and stormy weather," BAMWX noted, adding, "Exact timing is still a bit up for grabs but very encouraging if you're a lover of snow and cold."


"Interest rising for cold lovers in Jan with the polar vortex coming under attack in the next couple of weeks. Possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming?" weather forecasting company MetDesk said.


The combination of a potential SSW and an El Niño winter in the Mid-Atlantic, which typically leads to wetter-than-usual conditions, might suggest the next major snowstorm is approaching in the new year.
 
I

igrowone

Well-known member
Veteran
arsekick said:
Shittiest December I've ever seen here, hardly cracked a 20c day, will 18c today and 16c tomorrow.

Hottest driest summer ever and the hottest year on record :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

Fucking bullshit
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indeed sir, you have my sympathy
mean while up north we're having a spectacularly warm winter
I suppose we could be accused of thieving your warm
changes, changes are afoot
 
G

greencalyx

Well-known member
Premium user
Veteran
Crazy warm winter here in the Midwest. Normally this time of year it is single digits (f) for lows and doesn't get above freezing during the day.

We had highs in the upper 50s low 60s all last week. Didn't even freeze most nights.
 
Chi13

Chi13

Well-known member
ICMag Donor
arsekick said:
Shittiest December I've ever seen here, hardly cracked a 20c day, will 18c today and 16c tomorrow.

Hottest driest summer ever and the hottest year on record :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO: :ROFLMAO:

Fucking bullshit
Click to expand...
I guess if you've never left Tasmania (42 S) you won't experience much heat (nor human genetic diversity). Meanwhile the rest of Oz is sweltering.
 
armedoldhippy

armedoldhippy

Well-known member
Veteran
sixties here yesterday, today also. minor cooling for next three days (chance of SNOW!) then...warm again. fuck... last 4 years, coldest weather has been in November. :confused:
 
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