This is the biggest El Niño on record, and a killer La Niña is coming

[DocTim420]

And, what if...this natural warming season is followed by a natural cooling season--just like it has for thousands of years?

What if the data, research, discussions and emails NOAA is withholding from from FOIA requests proves to be more "political" than it is "scientific" (you know--the stuff that did not going through NOAA's normal peer-review vetting procedures that Obama used to push the Paris Accord/Agreement)?

What if....(love those two words).

 

[St. Phatty]

Some of the "celebrities" at the Hurricane fund-raiser REALLY need a script-checker.

(unless they want to entertain us with their entertaining beliefs)

Heard Mexico's 8.1 earthquake got lumped in with one of the Global Warming rants.

Might have been Beyonce.

 

[therevverend]

What if there's a magical thermostat that aliens hid in the north pole. When Roald Amundsen visited the north pole one of his huskies pooped on it causing the dial to turn a few degrees towards hotter...

 

['Boogieman']

What if there's a magical thermostat that aliens hid in the north pole. When Roald Amundsen visited the north pole one of his huskies pooped on it causing the dial to turn a few degrees towards hotter...

I would thank that husky, too cold up here in Indiana.

 

[EasyGoing]

Temps are going to drop into the 80's, which hasn't happened in two months. Then it's suppose to drop into the 70's. Fall is here.

 

[Robrites]

Fall is here.

Let's Hope.

 

[igrowone]

from west to east
some of the summer's warmest weather seems to be rolling in to upstate ny
which does time it well for the outdoor growers

 

[EasyGoing]

From NOAA.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

E. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
"In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.

Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).

We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes. In our view, there are better than even odds that the numbers of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes will increase by a substantial fraction in some basins, while it is likely that the annual number of tropical storms globally will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged. These assessment statements are intended to apply to climate warming of the type projected for the 21st century by IPCC AR4 scenarios, such as A1B.

The relatively conservative confidence levels attached to these projections, and the lack of a claim of detectable anthropogenic influence at this time contrasts with the situation for other climate metrics, such as global mean temperature. In the case of global mean surface temperature, the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013) presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions."

 

[EasyGoing]

Winter storm watch in summer.........

https://snowbrains.com/winter-storm...w-forecasted-thursday-night-saturday-morning/

Winter Storm Watch Issued For ID & MT: Up To 10″ of Snow Forecasted Thursday Night – Saturday Morning

 

[EasyGoing]

From facebook, and I don't know how to repost properly, but snow just up the hill from me........ In mid Sept! I know it's not climate, but crazy weather for sure.


"Caltrans, District 10 added 5 new photos.
September 14 at 3:05pm ·
TUOLUMNE COUNTY RECEIVES A PREVIEW OF WINTER
It certainly feels like summer down here in the San Joaquin Valley, where temperatures have frequently been in the 90s the past few months -- and have occasionally topped 100 degrees.
A bit of winter came early to Tuolumne County, though, where Caltrans' maintenance crews were greeted this morning by snow and hail. Take a look at these photos snapped off by our Tuolumne County maintenance crew on State Route 108. ...
See More"




If you can figure out how to access it, I google searched this to find this story. "caltrans facebook snow in tuolumne county" The pictures are lack luster, but at least I have a solid source with pics.

 

[EasyGoing]

Just thought I would repost................


From NOAA.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

E. Summary for Atlantic Hurricanes and Global Warming
"In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic.

 

[Water-]

Current Conditions - Analysis and Predictions:
Updated 11 September 2017

ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation Includes: El Niño - La Niña - Neutral Conditons


Prediction and Analysis - NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC): Updated 11 September 2017



ENSO-Neutral is favored witrh an 85% chance during August-September, decreasing to ~55%
during December-February) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18



Find Out When the Next El Niño will Return ​

GWO's 2-Year Predictions - pinpoints when the next El Niño will begin and end - click here
Predictions and Analysis - Global Weather Oscillations: Updated 11 September 2017
2-Year Prediction click here

Analysis: The pocket of colder than normal water subsurface Ocean water in the Central
Tropical South Pacific has intensified during the past 7 weeks - thus indicating that Neutral
ENSO conditions are firmly in place for the next several momths.

The ocean typically goes through 3 month cycles. The current cycle cooled both the surface
and subsurface waters during the past 2 months. This means the ocean temperatures will
likely stabilize in a month or two, then begin entering another cycle.



https://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/el-nino

 

[EasyGoing]

Lets hope they are more accurate than the predictions that started this thread, huh water?

Cause last time, wasn't even close to accurate. Thanks for the reference link. That helps.

 

[Water-]

Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.

​It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.

GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).

The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
​
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
​
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
​
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.

​During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the


http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/el-nino

 

[EasyGoing]

Did you even read that?

"Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
​
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States."


So the biggest el nino in over ten years in 2009...... Next paragraph says, "A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. " So was it the biggest in ten years, or moderate? Then blames the lackluster El Nino for the lack of hurricanes, which they predicted would increase in size and frequency in 2009.......Everything they say, is wrong, and proven wrong by their next paragraphs and history.

Just read the absolute nonsense......... Contradictions literally one paragraph after another. Sad......... Why do people believe this nonsense? I swear, critical thinking has gone out the window.

 

[Water-]

An el nino was predicted for 2009.

The el nino occured.

They thought it would be severe but it ended up being more moderate.

---

You need to work on your reading comprehension if you are going to make posts trying to discredit science.

 

[EasyGoing]

I understand. What you don't understand is predictions that don't come true, is not science. It's flawed science, and you post it over and over again as if it's fact with no return to the facts after the timeline of events happen.

Just like Al Gores predictions.........





As far as reading comprehension goes...... This is what it said, word for word......


"Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009."

Then very next pharagraph says, "A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted" Notice is says, just as predicted........ However the quote above shows they predicted something much different. That is like saying the biggest rain storm in 10 years is going to happen this weekend. The weekend passes, and we only get a 1/4 inch of rain. Sorry, not accurate, and to later say it was accurate shows the arrogance and dogma of these people.

Then you say

You need to work on your reading comprehension if you are going to make posts trying to discredit science.

Hmmmmm.............Gotta love climate "science". Predict the biggest in 10 years, then claim to be accurate when a moderate el nino happened instead. The Emperor Wears No Clothes.

 

[Water-]

This is the Outdoor Growing section and this thread is about El Nino/La Nina conditions that apply to peoples real world growing.

Where I live and many of the other international growers here on ICMAG live the Last El Nino prediction was accurate.


If you want to deny science and cry about climate change than please do it in the Tokers den and stop trolling here.

Doing it her disrupts people ability to discuss an important issue that outdoor growers face.

 

[DocTim420]

...If you want to deny science and cry about climate change than please do it in the Tokers den and stop trolling here....

LOL, fancy that. GK (aka Water-) is now playing "hall monitor"...telling others to "stop trolling here".

I think GK was banned because he was trolling in my transgender thread. Ahh, life is full of contradictions!

 

[oldchuck]

Doc, I think you are kind of a troll too but at least you have a functioning brain and do have a considerable point of view. I'll read your stuff but not Easy.