Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Mountain]

Dont overanalyze the news. total back fill ! Actions speak louder than words.

Couldn't have said it better.

Never was into commodities but saw copper hit a new high a few days ago and lots of news that food prices are only going up. Fertilizer companies like MOS, POT, etc. are cranking.

Would like to hear more when you see things developing between the stock/commodity spread.

Saw JKS was upgraded today and SOL is looking good around $11.00 but I'd like to see it test that level just a bit. News out fairly recently solar wafer/panel sales are expected to be a bit weaker than originally thought but nice to see the upgrade.

ONNN is looking interesting and already reported but made an acquisition the street was scratching it's head about a bit. I still like some energy stocks and are holding up well. Lots of focus on companies in the Bakken shale area of North Dakota and Montana. CRZO popped up on my screen yesterday but not a Bakken play.

 

[Mountain]

New from Wikileaks...Saudi's running low on oil...

The latest startling revelation to come via documents leaked to Julian Assange's muckraking website and published by The Guardian is should give pause to every suburban SUV-driver: U.S. officials think Saudi Arabia is overpromising on its capacity to supply oil to a fuel-thirsty world. That sets up a scenario, the documents show, whereby the Saudis could dramatically underdeliver on output by as soon as next year, sending fuel prices soaring.

The cables detail a meeting between a U.S. diplomat and Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration for Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, in November 2007. Husseini told the American official that the Saudis are unlikely to keep to their target oil output of 12.5 million barrels per day output in order to keep prices stable. Husseini also indicated that Saudi producers are likely to hit "peak oil"--the point at which global output hit its high mark--as early as 2012. That means, in essence, that it will be all downhill from there for the enormous Saudi oil industry.

"According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramaco and energy optimists would like to portray," one of the cables reads. "While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered."

I'm not surprised. Spent a year back in like 2005-2006 researching the peak oil issue and was coming across info that the Saudi's were at peak. One thing they do is pump in salt water to maintain pressure and some fields were passing the 50/50 mark for salt water/crude on the output side. There were some experts saying some of the fields could experience rapid and catastrophic loss of pressure.


The other thing that happened with OPEC countries is they all inflated their estimated reserves at some point, dramatically, because in OPEC it's something like their allowed output is tied to their reserves. There were no new discoveries etc. but they bumped their reserve numbers up so they could pump more oil.

 

[zenoonez]

I guess that makes sense, it is just hard for me to justify record highs when a market exists while some people are still talking about a double dip recession. So I was raking myself yesterday afternoon about buying a stock I thought was on the rebound but wasn't sure because it had leveled off yesterday after a nice 7-9% gain. Today I get back from the doctors office to see it is up 28% on the day. FML. I need to just pull the trigger when I see all the good indicators.

 

[Mountain]

GGAL crapped out...I avoid anything in E rated groups but eventually it might come around, LMLP took another leg up and leaders like LULU and OPEN just keep going. HLIT is holding it's gains but CSCO is getting slaughtered today on a gazillion shares traded...lol. SOL hold up on a test of $10.50. KOG and NOG still pulling back a bit but think they're bottoming here but NOG may still test $26 but intraday off it's 50 day moving average so maybe not. NOG is interesting because it only buys small parcel land leases in like North Dakota the big guys pass up. They attach the leases to larger ones and pay a portion of the drilling expenses so a non-operator model with no equipment and only 9 full time employees. Only problem is they're still selling shares to get money for purchases but the purchases they are making are paying off and should have enough cash flow in 2012 and they'll stop selling shares. No real competition for them in the area with their model.

 

[Mountain]

Very interesting play...BODY...making a very nice move and probably the start of something better long term, the retail sector is very strong, a solid recent IPO, pretty solid fundamentals but SMR is low and lower accumulation/distribution rating at C- but the A/D will change real fast with today's move, solid technical formation, etc.

As always I'm never recommending you buy a stock I mention and if you do it's at your own risk!!!

$ going into the solar sector today and some solid stocks in the oil sector are doing very well (OIS is doing great and think CRZO is getting ready) especially considering the drop in crude and Mubarak's resignation. NOG is trying to pop on better vol and KOG may have finally bottomed. The calls are trading at virtually NO premium which is a good and bad thing...lol! If it starts to move the premium will expand and fat money...or you could lose everything! EGY is testing $7.25 and looks like higher lows on recent downdrafts.

LULU and OPEN keep cranking and CMG rocking despite a lot of downgrades. It's in the restaurant sector like BWLD and PNRA had a huge gap today...and not really to do with the Superbowl effect IMO...that'll show up in the next quarter.

HLIT starting it's next leg up it appears.

 

[gonzo`]

Is anyone actually making money using TA? It seems like total voodoo to me. My stock portfolio (buy and hold) is up 47% and my silver ETF shares are killing it...

 

[Mountain]

Is anyone actually making money using TA? It seems like total voodoo to me. My stock portfolio (buy and hold) is up 47% and my silver ETF shares are killing it...

Dude...+47% is KILLER and kudos. I rely HEAVILY on Technical Analysis while trading for entries and exits. Being honest I was up 200% in January upon getting back into the markets very late December after a 5 year layoff. I threw 35% of that, so only up 100% now, back into the market the last week+...ooops.

I was fortunate to study with Chris Manning about 10 years back before he started his own hedge fund. Chris was strictly about technical analysis/trading 100%. He taught us to develop a program you could scan stocks and back test it to prove it's efficacy. A few things that stand out are in bear markets stocks hit your targets faster and with options buy them in the money and a few months out. We got into rising/falling wedges, ascending triangles (he LOVED those), head and shoulders tops and bottoms, double bottoms, cups with and without handles, island reversals (both up and down), blah, blah. If you can find his DVD Proven Chart Patterns it'll add to your knowledge base. He also said that shorting is not just about using the same info for going long then reversing it and a bit more difficult.

I'm also big into Investors Business Daily for technical stuff (they have some unique indicators), fundamentals (they have some unique stuff with how they rate stocks/companies) and leading stocks (once again they have some unique stuff) as that's where the action is. IBD 'technology' works great in bull markets. Also helps with picking bottoms. In bear markets Manning's take on things works great. Fuck bear markets though and take a vacation!

I'm not a buy and hold guy. For silver, which I think has more upside potential than gold, I watch SLW and it looks to be setting up for a bull move but that can change in an instant...LOL!!! SLW has an accumulation/distribution rating of D (E is worst and A+ obviously tops) and you can see that on a daily chart better than a weekly but appears the tone is changing for the better (move up) fairly recently on the weekly chart. SLW is the highest rated stock in it's group above Silver Corp (SVM), IAMGold (IAM) and even Barrick Gold (ABX).

For a major market trend reversal I watch QQQQ or the tech portion of the Nasdaq. When the market turns sour, which eventually it will, QQQQ is a great way to play a downtrend and it will fall hard and fast and the spread is almost non-existent.

Then you've gotta take into consideration world issues and dynamics...but it all shows up in price and volume action in individual stocks and the markets in general so yeah TA is important.

I do this more for the challenge.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I do this more for the challenge.

That it is, I'm finding out. My gf thinks what I'm doing is a get rich quick scheme, and I don't even have any money in it yet. She says she will change her mind once an account starts building.

I thought I was a fairly patient person, until I started day trading. I get excited too quick.

 

[Mountain]

That it is, I'm finding out. My gf thinks what I'm doing is a get rich quick scheme, and I don't even have any money in it yet. She says she will change her mind once an account starts building.

I thought I was a fairly patient person, until I started day trading. I get excited too quick.

Day trading is for a select few IMO. For one you'll need a cash balance of $25,000. 4 day trades (round trip) within 5 trading days and you're tagged as a day trader. You're choice then is to get your account to $25,000, if you already don't have that in there, or wait 90 days to trade again...pretty sure that's it. I avoid daily round trips at all cost...usually I buy near the market close and on dips during the day rarely...but do get dinged sometimes. Day trading never worked for me and getting tagged as a day trader means I've failed and have strayed from my plan.

Calculate a beginning amount with a 15% net return over 10 years and what do you have? Warren Buffet. That's basically a solid trade or two per year taking into consideration capital gains. The turtle wins the race in the long run. In almost all cases wealth is built over time. Be patient Grasshopper...LOL!

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I'm fully aware of the pattern day trader rule. But even with less than $25k, you can still make 3 full day trades.

I've been looking at using tradeking to setup an account with for the first year and they have a 3 day "unsettled funds" waiting period for every trade. You can enter the second trade right away but can't exit until 3 days after the first trade was exited. This totally sucks, and I'll have to change my strategy to accomodate. Do all online brokers have this 3 day waiting period?

I've been using TA since I've started paper trading 8 months ago and overall its been working well. Some trades are a little stubborn, all the technicals schedule it for a pop then it just lulls along losing or gaining nearly nothing tying up capital. Recently I've been watching the stocks that pop on the opening then letting the technicals set up, usually around 11:30 or so, enter and ride the momentum throughout the afternoon and exit when I looks as though its ran out of steam. Some days I'll hit my stops at -0.05% of entry and some days 2 - 4% gains. This way seems to be more reliable than using TA and holding for a week or two. However this strategy can be horrible with bad entries and no stops. When a stock pops 20 or 30%, it can drop 5% quick, so I try to pick big movers with gradual charts to try and minimalize those types of risks.

I probably shouldn't set goals as far as %'s go, but I'm shooting for 4%/wk.


I recently signed up at trade2win forums and I've learned a few good things there also.

 

[Mountain]

Do all online brokers have this 3 day waiting period?

Recently I've been watching the stocks that pop on the opening then letting the technicals set up, usually around 11:30 or so, enter and ride the momentum throughout the afternoon and exit when I looks as though its ran out of steam. Some days I'll hit my stops at -0.05% of entry and some days 2 - 4% gains. This way seems to be more reliable than using TA and holding for a week or two. However this strategy can be horrible with bad entries and no stops. When a stock pops 20 or 30%, it can drop 5% quick, so I try to pick big movers with gradual charts to try and minimalize those types of risks

For the first question the answer is no. I can trade immediately after I close something out trade after trade...no waiting period whatsoever. I've been with TDAmeritrade back when it was Datek...well over 10 years ago. Ameritrade bought up Datek then I guess TD Waterhouse bought Ameritrade. I was grandfathered in because of my old account status with Datek when I traded for 'a living' for 18 months. Normally you need like $50,000 in an account with them to do some of what I do now...paid my dues way back...lol. Just got notification I can do bull and bear spreads with options, or something like that, and threw the notice in the trash.

I'm interested in knowing more what you're seeing and doing. Can you give some examples so I can look at some charts?

 

[Sam the Caveman]

sure, I've been paper trading this strategy for only 6 trading days, so I wouldn't consider it rock solid but pretty good so far. Here are a few stocks that I applied this method to:

2/11 RDN another great one was panera bread
2/10 IPGP
2/9 RL
2/8 SNCR
2/7 JOE
2/4 JDSU

Basically you find a stock that either gaped up on the opening or was bid up right upon opening, wait until it makes it's first pullback or when the technicals say its a good time to get in then enter. Hold it until either your happy with your profit or you think its peaked for the day and exit. If your not limited with the number of trades you can make, enter 3 or 4 stocks like this with short stops in place, even if 2 or 3 hit the stops the one that doesn't will more than make up for it. This method can also be used for stocks that gap down.

 

[Mountain]

What's the percentage of the time do you get stopped out? Mainly I was interested in seeing the day chart. Where did you enter RDN?

Man IPGP was on my short list to buy. I woke up that morning with it at the top of my list and a big star next to it.

I got into AA on Friday. I took a look at it with a 10 MA and virtually every time over the past few months, except once when it made a more major consolidation, it closed below and uptrending line then popped above the next day it makes a short term move. Also at this stage in the market DOW stocks will outperform so I looked through every DOW stock and settled on AA. I was also waiting for it to test $17 and looks like the consolidation may be over. I more try to get in before the stock moves. Nice move toward the close and that's typically when I buy. We'll see what Monday brings...maybe a dose of Pepto Bismol...LOL!

 

[Sam the Caveman]

So far I've been getting stopped out about half of the time.

RDN, well i didn't follow protocol at all on that one so I ended up really getting screwed on that trade, should have known. I got in at 8.15 and held it until the close. I didn't put in a stop and didn't wait for the pullback, no patience+stubbornness=f'ed. I parted from my plan by convincing myself, "its been so steady all morning it surely will keep going up from here, if I don't get in now I'll miss my chance." Stupid, I know, thats not what the plan was, what was I thinking. If I would have followed the plan, +1% would have been easy. Not an ideal stock, but following the plan, it would have made a profit. Slow stochastics didn't drop below 20 until 12:30, the RSI showed a nice spike down there also, that would have made a good entry at 7.93 - 7.95, it lulled along all afternoon around 8.00 then peaked around 3:30 at 8.11. Right before then they announced the closing imbalances were to the sell side. It would have been a no brainer to exit after that announcement. Even if you would have exited at 8.09, that's 2%.

AA looks good, I'm guessing it might gap down a little then come back to make new highs.

If you'll look at PNRA for 2/11, the indicators showed an entry at 11:45, slow stochastics below 20, CCI bottom. Exit would have been around 2:20, up-trending consolidation in stochastics, RSI peak for a nice 3.3% profit.

Catching the major moves would be excellent, but it ties up so much capital waiting for the big move I think its more productive catching a little gain everyday. Plus some brokers like IB have a 25% maintenance margin throughout the day then apply 50% RegT at closing. IB requires $10k to open an account though.

 

[Capital G]

i ran across a stock thread on another forum awhile ago and i remember it having some good info on publicly traded reefer related companies. this would be a great thread if, all the herb related companies were listed and tracked as i see some of the higher dollar companies and commodities referenced. i think herb related stocks trade relatively cheap and this thread would be the perfect place for that ground breaking information that would turn your pennies into dollars. almost insider trading but, not quite.

 

[Mountain]

Catching the major moves would be excellent, but it ties up so much capital waiting for the big move I think its more productive catching a little gain everyday.

I focus on timing of a potential move and would rather put a lot of time into research into a particular issue then attempt to maximize the gain. Much more often than not I've been spot on with which stock will go and you just gotta be a bit patient. I'm usually off no more than a few days. Many times I wake up and they pop before I've gotten in. When I was younger used to be very active but don't like being glued to the monitor any more and would rather make 25% in a week on 1 trade instead of bite sized gains every day. I move at a slower pace now. Honestly I keep looking for an entry that provides a 7-30 day move, or if there's a significant gain over a few day period would reconsider, and have missed a few real good ones like SFN...which looks like its ready for another leg up. Stocks/charts like that don't even pull back to their 10 MA.

I hear ya on some of the other stuff...got away from some of the tenets of my program and got whipsawed for over a week...over thinking.

Playing gaps how you are especially with a well defined trading program makes a lot of sense especially on higher rated stocks. For sure on higher rated stocks they'll be more activity, than something like RDN, especially when they are hitting 52 week or all time highs. Not that you were asking but RDN is an absolute dog and so could see why no real follow through that day. Something like that I'd be wondering how much of a move like that is due to short covering instead of actual buying. I look at stocks that gap after they've consolidated a bit.

FSLR is a top rated solar stock with a high short ratio...talk about a squeeze with where that thing is that...yikes for the bears! That thing is not just a short squeeze but also genuine buying going on. No gap there though.

 

[Mountain]

i ran across a stock thread on another forum awhile ago and i remember it having some good info on publicly traded reefer related companies. this would be a great thread if, all the herb related companies were listed and tracked as i see some of the higher dollar companies and commodities referenced. i think herb related stocks trade relatively cheap and this thread would be the perfect place for that ground breaking information that would turn your pennies into dollars. almost insider trading but, not quite.

Honestly I think those will pretty much be penny stocks for quite awhile. Funds won't touch em at this point and that's what moves stocks. At some point something will happen and I'd just wait for that segment of the market to develop and when something proves itself then you can still catch the major part of any move. All great stocks have basically gone through that process. If you find something you think looks solid please post it so we can have a peek.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

Yep, your right on about RDN. After I got in I then looked at the daily chart and saw what a crappy stock it was and I knew right then it was a bad move to get into that one.

 

[Capital G]

Honestly I think those will pretty much be penny stocks for quite awhile. Funds won't touch em at this point and that's what moves stocks. At some point something will happen and I'd just wait for that segment of the market to develop and when something proves itself then you can still catch the major part of any move. All great stocks have basically gone through that process. If you find something you think looks solid please post it so we can have a peek.

dig definitely will.

 

[Mountain]

Yep, your right on about RDN. After I got in I then looked at the daily chart and saw what a crappy stock it was and I knew right then it was a bad move to get into that one.

Yeah dude...every time I 'fail' I always dig deeper and see WTF I missed. Sometimes you find nothing but most often there's something.

I dunno man...CRZO looks real good here. In a hot group with solid stocks like GPOR, GEOI, and GSOL has made a nice move. CXO and BEXP running and NOG popping and was a few days off on that one. I held some calls and got a bit uncomfortable, let em go then...boom...there went 100+%. I like hot groups but wish I had some hot groupies.... CRZO is a bit of a laggard but still very solid and think it's next. Killer support at it's 50 and a few days at it's 10. This is something I'd consider getting into on a weak open with no major news in the general market. The last 2 Monday's have been hot though and oil stocks in general very solid.