Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[SpasticGramps]

I don't know if we'll see $30. I'd love to, but I think that's a pipe dream. Maybe not though. I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Also, the end of QEII is going to start getting priced in pretty soon right along with sell in May and go away. I have no idea how all that is going to work out. Uncharted waters we wonder towards.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Here is why they are panicking and raising margin requirements. The people hording physical silver as a rejection of the current monetary regime are bringing down the COMEX. We will expose the Ponzi.

Another Decline In Registered Silver Brings Total Comex Physical To Multi-Year Lows

One would think that following the total "annihilation" (as it has already been pegged by some) in silver over the past few days, that Comex would promptly reverse its "temporary" reclassification of Registered into Eligible silver, or so the believers in Comex holdings claim. Which is why to our surprise we noticed that today, the Comex announced that the ongoing inverse reclassification from Registered into Eligible continues, with Scotia Mocatta seeing another 186 thousand ounces of physical silver moving into that dark pool known as "eligible" holdings.

This, following on the footsteps of last week's massive reclass action, which saw 20% of the Comex Registered silver being shifted away, means that today's Comex physical silver has now fallen to a fresh record multi-year low of just 33.152 million ounces. Add to this the dact that there was another withdrawal of 300k ounces from Brinks, and one may wonder just how "justified" the fall in silver price has been over the past 2 days.

And for those who enjoy seeing long-term charts below, courtesy of 24 hour gold, is a long-term chart showing Eligible silver inventories at the Comex. It kinda speaks for itself.

The treasonous bankers and their Federal Reserve system may have destroyed our country, but we will end their reign of terror on our terms. Not theirs.

 

[Mountain]

Thx for the info. Technically the silver charts looked like climax tops. I'm sure there's gotta be stuff going on behind the scenes with all this too.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Another afterhour flash crash in silver.

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Looks like they are trying to push it down to trigger the $40 stop losses when there is no volume. We may get it down $30 after all! At least mid $30's. Fucking right! I'm glad I waited for this pullback.

 

[Mountain]

I'm thinking about $37.50 at this point. That's weak old resistance and coincides with the 50 MA but I'm hoping for $35.

Stocks got pounded yesterday. NOG is looking pretty oversold here.

 

[Mountain]

SLW is looking pretty beat up here.

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I'm up $1500 trading the ES with 2 contracts this week. In a demo account, of course. the commissions aren't that bad either, <$100. And most of the time, I miss the big moves.

For some reason I've been thinking my broker doesn't offer margin on futures trading, but I chatted with them earlier and they said they do, 4x for intraday with no interest. They said interest is only charged for overnight holds. Thats why I've been only trading with 2 contracts, but really if I opened an account with $2k, I could trade 6 at a time. It would be risky trading 6 with only $2k, 2.5 point loss and its time to send them more money.

I'll probably start trading with 4 contracts, that would give me some breathing room of about 4.5 points. My mental stops are at 2 points, but they are hard to execute sometimes, real money at risk would probably make it easier.

I really like trading the ES, no searching for stocks and anylising chart after chart for a good set up and waiting for a proper entry point. I like the fast pace trading of the ES, no overnight positions, if I want to go on vacation, I don't have to try and close all my positions or deal with the tension of monetary risk while trying to relax.

Opening an account is getting near, I'm excited. Maybe next year I won't be working in 95degree weather all summer.

 

[Mountain]

SLV closed weak and after hours a bit weaker. I'm think this drop is pretty flushed out here but 35 would be nice. Hoping for some weakness on the open and we'll see. That's a pretty hard drop to it's 50 MA though.

SLW closed up and thought it was oversold earlier in the day. SLW may be looking at 35 or it's 200 MA

 

[SpasticGramps]

I had to drive to San Antonio today and was thinking about this a lot.

Mountain. Your absolutely right about the technicals on SLV and being extremely overbought. Also everyone was talking about getting into silver. Even a lot of people at work who aren't market savvy. Whenever the herd starts to think something is a good investment it's time to get on the other side of the trade. The people who came in at $30-47 have either gotten crushed or may be starting to panic. I picked up most my silver at $18-20 and then some at $30. I haven't bought any since then.

Here's the way I see the summer being set up. It's almost a replay from last year. We have QE ending and garbage economic numbers like last year. Although this years GDP # is considerably worse and employment continues to be absolute crap and deteriorating. Given that QE is going to be over the DXY has to rally IMO. Last year the Yen was the carry trade, but this year it's the dollar and all these people are going to have to start covering their short positions. Plus, slowing down the printing presses should push the DXY up nicely on a psychological rally. That is going to crush equities, PM's, and commodities causing more people to flock to fixed income vehicles and the DXY maybe. This is going to be the interesting trade to watch IMO. Who is considered flight to safety now? The insolvent Euro? The Swiss Franc surely will.

Seeing all this asset deflation will start to freak The Bernank out (again) and we will end up with QEIII sometime this fall. At this point we will come to the realization that the market can no longer survive without massive amounts of printed money being dumped into it. This is when metals and commodities will really take off IMO. The possible QEIII event will be the beginning of the end of the dollar. I think this will crush the remaining confidence left in the greenback since it would be recognition that all we can do is monetize everything. The digital Weimar endgame basically. It becomes a matter of time at that point.

A side caveat. I passed a town on I-10 called Weimar on the way to San Antonio today. Found that kind of amusing in a sad way.

In summary I think metals, equities, and commodities are going to get crushed this summer. Last summer there was a ~20% correction on the S&P when QEI ended before The Bernank came to the rescue. I think I'm going to wait until July or August before starting to look to pick up more physical silver. I think there is a lot of downside risk with the end of QEII beginning to be priced in.

I do believe it going to be an interesting summer. I think that correction that we were talking about a while ago is here or will be in earnest around June when QEII ends. We shall see.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Oh, I think now would be a good time to short GM.

They have conceded that they have stuffed their inventory channels so much that they possibly can't stuff them anymore. This is what they were doing right before the SHTF in '08.

That's really what a lot of companies have been doing. They have been stuffing inventory and counting them as sales, but no one is really buying the amount they are producing on the other end. Basically cooking the books trying to paint a rosy picture on a piece of shit just like they did before everything tanked. They are about to get absolutely destroyed IMO. Me and my fellow taxpayer slaves will probably be bailing them out again. I hear The Bernank cracking the whip.

Like I said. I think it's going to be a really really volatile and interesting summer.

 

[SpasticGramps]

CME crushing margin requirements again! Wow. Uncle Scam is throwing some bombs.

CME Hikes Silver Margins By 17%: 4th Hike In 8 Trading Days[/B] Full report from CME in link.

Nobody could have foreseen this. Nobody. At this point there is nothing left to comment on what is a concerted action to "mitigate" any and all risk in the commodity market but could as well be classified as executive order 6102.5. While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth, we are now forced to reevaluate this sarcasm.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Hmm... Things seem to be going parabolic. Fighting the big boys! Fuck you JP Moron! This is the people's country!

CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes

Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.

Spot the parabola:

 

[Mountain]

I really appreciate it when someone steps in and gives their take on what's happening, what's potentially going to happen from their perspective and most importantly WHY.

This is interesting...

While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth

Seems they are doing what they can to squeeze the glimmer out of silver, for whatever reason, at least in the trading circles.

Uncle Scam is throwing some bombs.

I think they've got some things planned out and since they hold the puppet strings in some ways can still make things dance.

As for what may happen this summer...all I can see in the recent term is there was wholesale selling of securities at the recent top and hard all across the board. Institutions were cashing in big time.

 

[Mountain]

Also everyone was talking about getting into silver. Even a lot of people at work who aren't market savvy. Whenever the herd starts to think something is a good investment it's time to get on the other side of the trade.

Contrary indicator...it's like when everyone is talking about it there's no one left to buy.

 

[SpasticGramps]

I really appreciate it when someone steps in and gives their take on what's happening, what's potentially going to happen from their perspective and most importantly WHY.

These are interesting times we live in. This place gives me an opportunity to vent my opinion on matters which are otherwise difficult to articulate to my colleagues and family.

I could totally wrong about all this, but I'm diversified comfortably either way. The speculation is cathartic.

 

[Zen Master]

I enjoy the speculation.

dont think you guys are just talking to eachother, I'm lurkin this thread multiple times a day every day.


I wish I was more knowledgeable.

 

[Mountain]

Regardless of any trading opportunities, as they always exist, I think the market is in for a tough ride in the near term. Any rise back to the recent top will just be an opportunity for institutions to sell.

 

[Madrus Rose]

All manipulated as they managed to run market up on "April earnings rally" assuring themselves of 1/2 of their annual bonuses that are made in April . Think the market's really ready to roll over here .

Shorted every overbought double top out there could find up to and including MRO on fantastic earnings with a 21c beat ....gas has risen almost $1 gal averag over the last 60days , while sales of gas have gone down for the last 4mos running .

MRO on those earnings should have popped 5pts , but double top thesis remains intact with almost 95% of them selling off . 40 charts could show easily all the same 2 tops within pennies just like MRO .....accident , not a chance .

Nice raid on SINA & BIDU ??? And high flying PE piggies like OPEN ;O)

(double bottoms work too , look at DAL NVLS recent bounces )



There's been over 40-50 charts could post with all these double tops within pennies & all pulled back

 

[Mountain]

Silver getting crushed again today. First solid support I saw was around $35 then maybe $34. Maybe it will tank to $30. NOG definitely oversold right here and right around $20 is key.

Nice trading Madrus...which I had more time to focus on this stuff.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Market-manipulation mutterings intensify Market Watch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Manipulation mutterings are spreading, and that’s ominous.

Recently, I noted that longtime gold bug Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters finally converted to the thesis that gold’s price is subject to manipulation by a Wall Street-Washington alliance. See April 25 column on Russell and the gold-manipulation thesis.

Russell seems to be brooding about this insight. In reply to a correspondent who asked about the possibility of an FDR-type confiscation of gold he said the following:

“I’ve thought about this at length, and I’ve arrived at what I believe to be the correct answer. The answer is — No, the government will definitely not call in the gold. The simple reason is that a tremendous amount of gold is held in very powerful hands. [The] SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD -2.55% and gold bullion [are] held by pension funds, university endowment funds, large powerful hedge funds, corporate reserves and state treasuries.”

This strikes me as an odd answer. Were the people who owned gold in 1933 really less so much powerful? But it’s indicative of Russell’s current thinking.

This idea of manipulation seems to be spreading beyond the lunatic fringe where many investment letters dwell (often profitably). Thus the respected institutional service The Gartman Letter wrote early Wednesday morning:

“Here in the U.S., we have seen example of ‘tape painting’ before where the market’s important indexes have hardly moved but where the broader markets have weakened materially, but yesterday’s action was the ‘painty-iest’ [sic] of all. The Dow finished the day essentially unchanged, but the advance-decline line was horrid. The Nasdaq COMP +0.19% was weak; the S&P SPX -0.32% finished five points lower. The public heard the national news last night, which tends to report the Dow, and [concluded] things were steady. They were not. [They] were weak, and they are weakening again this morning.”

(In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.49% finished Wednesday down 84 points amid general dismay.)

Dennis Slothower of Stealth Stocks Daily Alert has always been shockingly explicit about manipulation in the markets. See Nov. 1, 2010, column that mentions Dennis Slothower.

On Wednesday night Slothower wrote: “The iShares Silver Trust ETF SLV -8.63% fell another $2.31 today. I can’t stress enough how investors were set up here ... Remember what the media present as the most obvious thing to do is really what J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -0.14% and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -0.58% want you, the public, to do. And last month, crushing the dollar and forcing investors to buy gold and silver at the top of the market gave the primary dealers plenty of liquidity to sell their gold and silver positions into the top of the cycle.”

Slothower’s cynicism extends to commodities:

“Crude oil is starting to look very toppy. The economy is beginning to break here and crude oil is beginning to look ready to roll over as energy speculators will dump this bubble and hunt for another one.

“The Fed has played out its hand with this quantitative-easing program and is about to bring the economy to ruin again. We have a government that believes it is their right to pillage and plunder us. The name of the game is delusion (false economy), diversion (OBL) and the division (or plunder) of your wealth.

“If you are holding gold, or any investment for that matter, you now need to have an exit strategy, should that day come. I will repeat that: YOU NEED TO HAVE AN EXIT STRATEGY!

“I think investors need to be prepared that the next couple of quarters are going to see a repeat of what happened in 2008, which will cause huge asset-allocation shifts.

“Frankly, I don’t think this bull market has much longer to live.”

That’s really alarming. Slothower has been arguably too cautious recently, but he was one of the handful of advisers who dodged the Crash of 2008.

Slothower’s bottom line:

“We are 10% invested (short position in InterOil Corporation IOC -1.33% ) and 90% cash/money markets.”

I was watching CNBC this morning before I came to work and they had Erin and the other asshole on their. Anyway, they posted their interactive poll for the show which was... "Do you believe the wealth disparity will lead to revolution in the USA and Europe?"

They blabbed on about the American dream and how it quelled social unrest because everyone believed that if they just worked hard enough they could be rich too. The American Dream is what ties us all together. Many people are waking up to the reality that this is just not true. We are feudalistic society with autocrats who run things. Us proles are only here to be robbed from. The American Dream is just that. A dream. A delusion.

Anyway, after they talked for a bit they posted the results of the poll. 78% said Yes. Revolution 2.0 was coming soon. Both of the talking heads were absolutely speechless. Their jaw hit the floor and they were squirming around in their seats. I was laughing my ass off. I thought to myself. That's right motherfuckers. Retribution from the proles once they realize the American Dream is now the American nightmare will be swift and unfortunately most likely violent.