Short term trades in the stock market •$$$$$•

[Madrus Rose]

Have to see what happens & think about it a little more ...some of these big Dow stocks like CAT & DE are trading at multi yr highs right now .

My first thought looking at the S&P and the DJIA is that they're near topping again
one making a lower double top here & the DOW putting in one right now . His idea of it going even higher now into summer makes me ask why to ? But the Fed damned if they do or if they don't thesis...makes alot of sense .

expecting the $USD to bottom out , its getting pretty close on the weekly ...perfect doubletops huh ? Why i look for them so often because they show up everywhere & really consistent high pivots when they're also in the extreme overbought
(where to short & where to buy long )

 

[Madrus Rose]

Cigarettes may shorten your life ....but not a good thing to short Cigarette companies

waiting until the last short gets his butt so whooped & bdy so broken , then you could take a stab at it LO (Lorilard) finally paused near nice even $100 after dragging shorts screaming & bloodied thru the streets since the FDA ruling on Menthol

 

[Madrus Rose]

NFLX got the bounce today off the 50ma up as much 7pts+ (like Goldman GS still trying to hold ) also hasn't violated that 50rsi (too much) this whole time ...CCI was bottomed plus there's that top in Dec that directly coincided with this test of the 50ma at $200 as support

After getting pounded for 5days in a row losing 48pts/20% , traders looking for a dead cat bounce in here

Now back up 42pts , that was some dead cat bounce for NFLX!!
( closed @ $242 on friday )
Now that double top is coming into play again ...


Chinese stock SINA has been on a tear with other major sites BIDU & SOHU ...SINA bouncing from $75 from 1rst of the month, back up to $111 close on friday on momo with the expected spin off IPO of Wiebo a Chinese microblogging site, similar to Twitter, launched by Sina and one of China's biggest web portals

Some unstopable momo here , now just getting a little overbought

 

[Madrus Rose]

POT ....(Potash Corp of Sasketchuan )

Supplier of 17% of the world's nitrogen mineral/ferts , made a nice
up move thru march ....Monsanto reporting next week on tues will
be closely watched ...and KBH in the homebuilders.

 

[TNTBudSticker]

Finally the Drop I was looking for in Toyota -TM Doesn't look to good with all the work stoppages.

WLT...What a monster ! Keeps on ticking..sorta sucks I got out of it in the portfolio.It's stabilized around 310 now.But BP had good news about the drilling program going to resume.

MMG Didn't get below that $1.00 this time...Just looked at it today.Depending on what happens today at the end and may jump in for a few more moola paper-trades.And sell at the opening tomorrow.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Must Watch CNBC clip.

The guy sounds like the godfather. Founder of the first ever hedge fund.

Scroll down to the video. I couldn't find the full clip on CNBC.

Michael Steinhardt Tells The Truth

 

[Madrus Rose]

Two major plays this week AAPL & NFLX , but cannot endure IC mag slowness any longer so cut down even trying to post .

AAPL.... on monday got notice sunday they were being rebalanced in the NDX 100 & suffered a real down draft first thing monday am @ the open of premarket trading . Doesn't show on the charts but AAPL hit & hovered @ $330 for a good while and that was a gift being perfect near term double bottom low right there (see chart)...AAPL went on to bounce back 12pts by the EOD from $330 back up to $342's!

NFLX ....was testing that double that "DOUBLE TOP" each day ...mon , tues , weds . Popped in the first 10-15mins of trading each day then sold off 3days in a row . Traded 1rst long in the premarket into the open when they pumped it up on small retail orders 100-200 shrs each day it dumped ...then weds came along & pump took it to $248.40 +4pts in tha am and then the dump really took hold . NFLX ended up -5pts for 9pt swing and sold down again this am with bids getting hit pretty hard . Down to $230/231 area where it did get a weak bounce.

Double tops were everywhere in the market & they all pulled back down

 

[Madrus Rose]

NFLX ...here's quick glimpse /close up of last 4 day action ...sticking to my thesis that the Double Top "$248" was not going to be taken out ( overvalued & overbought ) ...well each am open confirmed this ...for as soon as it popped on that small retail , in came the selling each day .

These 3 days of wiggles like this are golden because you no exactly how its going to play out ...and can play both short & long .
This 5 day chart reads like a heart monitor & its rare in the market you know exactly when to time your trades like this .

CNBC trotted out an analyst weds night that has been calling NFLX short for some time saying its going back to $100 and that that was
enough to turn thursday am into more shorting but held the $230 pivot ...NFLX still has momo but its been damaged & needed a haircut .
And it came exactly from the double top 3 days in a row exactly !!

How often can u know just when to short or go long ? Market gave at least 50 similar charts that all pulled back from exact
double tops just like this ...(and double bottom bounces too) ...all within pennies .


These multi~day consistent trading patterns are golden, especially one as regular as this ...didn't miss a beat !

 

[TNTBudSticker]

U.S.A shuts down...Not good for stocks.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Eh, I reckon not so big of a deal. Bread and circuses.

I still think everything is going to keep going up. Until May or June and when the question of the day is what does the FED's exit from propping up the markets look like.

Unti then, we're going UP IMO. Equities, Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil, Foods), Interest Rates, Food Stamps, Spending (unfunded liabilities), Bankruptcies, Commercial Vacancies, War, Political Hysteria, everything going UP.

Except home values, wages, and the middle class. That's going down.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Everything going up. Real value going down. I'm sure the third world is just going to love this.

Premarket Summary: Inflationary Hysteria ZeroHedge

One word (well technically two) can describe what is going on in the electronic pre-market arena right now: inflationary hysteria. Gold is at a new record, wheat is surging, corn is at highest since 2008, crude at a new 30 month high, silver is at $41.10 - a new fresh post Hunt high, beans surging, etc, etc, etc. Essentially everything is bid, following news first reported on Zero Hedge that PIMCO is betting the farm that either inflation is about to go parabolic and force bondholders to dump everything, or that the Fed will have no choice but to pursue another round of QE, sending gold to $2,000 and unleashing the Weimar endgame.

Gold:

Silver:

WTI:

Corn:

 

[Sam the Caveman]

I've haven't been on this thread much. I've been having too much fun trading the emini.

Its a total blast, intense is the best way to describe it, and you can trade 24 hours a day 5 days a week with no PDT rules or 3 day settlement periods. I'm sure its just a fluke, but everyday I've traded the emini I've ended up > $300 using 2 contracts. A few $600 days and a $725 day.

I've somewhat simplified my method, mainly relying on... ...well, I use a bunch of things, but its easy for me and its working great so far. Its surely changed the way I think about things now. I don't really care about what the market does long term because I'm in and out so quick, as long as I can grab a handle here and there, I'm happy.

Is this a fluke?

 

[Madrus Rose]

well they tried to get the S&P up past that 1332 mark all last week they spiked it each am & closed it right back down to that 1332 which is the double-top on the SPX daily .

.so many of the highflyers paused at these double tops simultaneously too ,

5 days in a row the SPY EM's popped & dropped ...bout as good as it gets for that many days in a row to pick up almost automatic winning trades while they wait for earns to come in .

SPY chart for 5days regular as a mini heart monitor , got Viagra ?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

nothing big time , but shows how you trade with the overall resistance in place & indecision of traders in this time frame at these high levels . I think the earnings optimism is already priced in , tho some stocks will pop after earnings bet they take profits too . They love taking profs at the top & convincing people to buy at these elevated levels .

AAPL to $500 is what some analyusts are saying , but its noise for now ... AAPL will have troube retaking $365 for now.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Short Government Motors? China's own Cash for Clunker Scam just ran out.

Bad News For GM: As China's Own "Cash For Clunkers" Program Ends, Car Sales Come Far Below Expectations; BYD Sales Plunge ZeroHedge

Two months ago we reported that the recently bailed out Unionized Carmaker, for whom China (where they apparently do not care about falling steering wheels) has become a market more important than even the US, had seen some jarring demand weakness, following a 10% drop in January sales. We now learn that GM was not only the beneficiary of last year's Cash For Clunkers program in the US, but has been the recipient of recent incentives offered in the domestic Chinese market. Alas those are now over, and as Bloomberg reports "China’s passenger-car sales grew in March at a pace that was below forecasts after incentives ended and fuel prices rose, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said." That's putting it mildly: for an economy in which a growth rate of 10% is considered stagnating, what happened in March was equivalent to a drubbing: "Dispatches of cars including multipurpose vehicles and sport-utility vehicles to dealerships rose 6.52 percent from a year earlier to 1.3 million units, the association said in a statement today. That pace was about one-tenth of the 63 percent sales increase reported in March of last year." Which brings us to the question of the day: how does one spell "short GM" in Mandarin? Yet the irony of the day award goes to Charlie Munger, who may or may not have been completely "open" with his purchase of BYD shares: BYD sales plunge in March by 41% (Y/Y). Suck it in, Charlie.

Bloomberg- “The overall vehicle sales growth in March was below our expectations,” Zhu Yiping, the association’s statistics head, said at a briefing in Beijing today. March has historically been a peak period for car sales in China following the week-long Chinese New Year holiday that was celebrated this year from Feb. 2 through Feb. 8, according to the association.

General Motors Co. (GM), China’s biggest overseas automaker, posted slower sales growth in the nation for the second month in March as the government reinstated a 10 percent sales tax and phased out subsidies for vehicle trade-ins in rural areas. Last year, overall auto sales surged 32 percent to a record 18.1 million, helping the nation stay the world’s largest vehicle market for the second year.

“Car sales growth may continue to slow for a few more months as customers brought forward purchases to the end of last year,” said Harry Chen, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Co. in Shenzhen. “The pace may pick up again in the second half as potential demand is still there.”

A huge miss:

Sales growth in China this year may fall short of the association’s previous estimate for an increase of 10 percent to 15 percent, said Dong Yang, vice chairman of the association.

“I am concerned about whether our growth rate is too low,” Dong said. “Some automakers’ profitability may be undermined this year and some may even face difficulties in their operations.”

Total vehicle sales gained 5.4 percent in March to 1.8 million units, the auto group said. Vehicle sales for the first quarter increased 8.1 percent to 5 million units.

The worst news for GM: Chinese consumers seem to finally realize what is quality and... what isn't. GM sold 233,014 vehicles in China last month, the Detroit- based company said April 2. Deliveries barely rose from March 2010’s 230,048 and followed a 6 percent increase in February.
Ford Motor Co. (F) boosted sales in China 20 percent to 53,440 units in March. Deliveries of Ford-brand vehicles by Changan Ford Mazda Automobile, the Dearborn, Michigan-based company’s Chinese passenger car unit, totaled 42,157 vehicles in March, the carmaker said April 7.

China coming in for it's "soft landing?"

 

[Madrus Rose]

MJNA ...jeez Lousie, you snooze u lose !

looking at Bruce Perlowin's MJNA ,
http://bruceperlowin.com/bio.html

that little stock did a "Quad "in 3 days in the end of march and
we were just talking about the MJ pink sheet stocks !

100k shrs ($5,000 of stock @ 5c ) would have netted
us $20k in just 3 days ...

 

[RetroGrow]

Although I've been trading for years, I would never recommend anyone to try it. It's extremely difficult, and there are so many forces at work that we just don't know about, that it can be a perilous journey. Definitely not for neophytes. Our whole financial system is corrupt, and rigged to relieve retail traders from their money. Hedge funds can move low volume, low float stocks anyway they want. All systems in our world are collapsing, and it's only a matter of time before our economy collapses again. Forces at work that we have no control over, and greedy, failed leadership to "lead" us down the road to ruin.
Having said that, I made $5,500 so far this week, but still not recommend anyone else to try it. I do not hold positions over night.

 

[Mountain]

I do not hold positions over night.

Made my first trade in like a month yesterday, some BRNC calls, held them overnight and thx to the CCI tip from Madrus to help round things out it worked out pretty good.

 

[SpasticGramps]

A Crisis in Confidence is amiss? In one hand is an unsustainable path to financial destruction. In the other the obvious unwillingness resolve to change. Two incompatible ideas headed for a collision course. The thing about a currency crisis is that markets will just wake up to it one day. The Black Swan.

Citi Issues USD Warning: "Significant Downside Risk For USD And JPY If Market Begins To Price In Unsustainable Debt Risk"ZeroHedge

As anyone who has been following the VIX, US CDS (which is quite interesting as the US catastrophe trade appears to have become selling CDS to fund gold purchases in euros: more on that eventually), or stock markets in general has grown to appreciate all too well, no matter the amount of perceived risks, the market continues to shrug off any bad news: after all, the Bernanke put means that the greater the systemic shock, the higher the likelihood that the Fed will get involved yet again and push up all risk assets. However, the same can not be said about the dollar. The currency which in 2011 has traded like anything but the world's reserve currency is less than 1 point away from 2009 lows. But that could be just the beginning. Citi's head of FX has released a not warning about the potential coming avalanche to the greenback should debt ceiling negotiations hit a snag: "what we are looking at here is very much the tail risk event that the debt ceiling negotiations unexpectedly hit an impasse. The question is what the impact would be on USD." Englander's summary observations: 1) The USD will be in big trouble if investors get the sense that the debt ceiling negotiations have gone beyond the expected choreography into a zone where there is perceived risk to US credit; 2) More broadly, we think FX markets are increasing the attention they pay to fiscal sustainability relative to monetary policy; 3) The FX response may be non-linear so G10 countries may have a false sense of security in seeing little FX response to deterioration so far. Then again, perhaps a major step down in the dollar is precisely what the Fed wants...

Englander's summary view:

The 2011 budget impasse was resolved with little markets impact.

If a breach of the US debt ceiling comes into question the impact will be larger

Since September 2009, a 100bps increase in CDS has been associated with 8% currency weakness …

… but there also is a level effect as poorer credits have faced larger FX pressures

If the USD tanks I would expect stocks to rally. Lots of upside in physical metals. Even Cramer is on the PM wagon.

The debt ceiling argument is going to be another bread and circuses debate IMO. The ceiling will be raised. Probably going lively though.

 

[Madrus Rose]

Made my first trade in like a month yesterday, some BRNC calls, held them overnight and thx to the CCI tip from Madrus to help round things out it worked out pretty good.

if you took BRNC on that little pullback & dip on the CCI , great ...its a great leading indicator in conjunction with the rsi.

(check JPM's recent double top on earnings , got hammered back down making it almost 90% all the overbought double-tops in this market got sold )

Did an overlay with the CCI here & that touch to the 50 made for a good trade .

 

[Mountain]

if you took BRNC on that little pullback & dip on the CCI , great ...its a great leading indicator in conjunction with the rsi.

Enough to buy me a nice dinner tonight.