GenghisKush
Well-known member
Oh-oh you guys.
It's beginning to look like women are showing up to vote. Men... not so much.
Not unlike 2020, Trump and his allies are preemptively making outlandish and extreme assertions to lay the groundwork for a claim, if they don’t prevail, that the election was stolen. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
October 31, 2024
We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.
Pennsylvania is obviously a must-win state for both campaigns… but it’s really crucial for Trump. While his inner circle feels confident about winning the Sunbelt, they recognize that they have a good chance of losing Michigan, where the gender gap is stark and students are coming out in record numbers. (A new CNN poll shows Harris up 5 points in the state.) So the situation in Pennsylvania—where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote—has sent the campaign into a tailspin during the past two days.
Not unlike 2020, Trump and his allies are preemptively making outlandish and extreme assertions to lay the groundwork for a claim, if they don’t prevail, that the election was stolen. They’re also engaging in the early stages of election lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” said a campaign source. “Anyone who hears how rabid they are about this issue can’t walk away from this and think they feel comfortable about where they’re at in PA. They’re talking about criminal referrals. They want to find poll watchers who they feel are engaged in voter suppression so that they can refer criminal prosecutions.” (An R.N.C. spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.)
You could almost hear the anxiety in Charlie Kirk’s tweets last night, as he implored young bros to turn out. “Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” Kirk posted on Twitter/X. “If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW.”
As I reported two weeks ago, Trump has already zeroed in on Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley as his scapegoat if things go south. The lawsuits have also already begun—one of which they won in Bucks County, when they complained that a poll watcher had turned people away till Election Day because the lines were too long. (The judge ruled in their favor, extending the drop-off day for mail-in ballots to November 1.) Democrats, meanwhile, have sued over alleged ballot problems in Erie County, according to Politico.
And while Trump may want to blame Whatley and his “election integrity unit” for a loss, the campaign is also preparing to blame outside groups who were supposed to handle Trump’s ground game. Sure, figureheads like Kirk at Turning Point and Elon Musk at America PAC are firmly planted in Trump’s inner circle and would probably walk away unscathed. But the same can’t be said for Phil Cox and Generra Peck, who have essentially commandeered Musk’s America PAC and are seen as too closely aligned with Trumpworld’s collective enemy Ron DeSantis. “We’re solely focused on winning, and we’re not looking at anything else. That’s the only thing that matters,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
But I’m told it’s conventional wisdom inside Mar-a-Lago that it would be impossible to get Kennedy confirmed in the Senate, even if Republicans pick up more than two seats. More likely, I’m told, he could be expected to wind up with a “czar”-like advisory role similar to what’s been promised to Elon Musk, who could have free rein running a so-called “Department of Government Efficiency”—an agency that Trump conjured up the other day. Lutnick also acknowledged in the same interview that R.F.K. wouldn’t make it into the cabinet as H.H.S. secretary.
Clearly, it’s silly season for Trump staffing speculation, especially with the candidate bouncing names off people for feedback and teasing those around him with posts that even he knows wouldn’t be right for them. Most recently, Trump’s longtime friend Steve Witkoff, the real estate magnate who famously brokered the détente between Trump and DeSantis at Miami’s Shell Bay Club, has managed to get himself on the hypothetical shortlist for White House chief of staff. Witkoff, who was with Trump during the thwarted assassination plot on the golf course, spoke at the Madison Square Garden rally.
As much as Trump enjoys his company, many close to the former president say he doesn’t have the political bona fides to navigate Washington and actually pass legislation. Kevin McCarthy, another name in consideration, could handle that, but he has detractors not only in the Congressional Freedom Caucus, but also around Trump—like his nemesis Matt Gaetz, who’s been traveling around with the former president. Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign co-manager, is in consideration, but it’s not her style to lobby. Brooke Rollins, his former director of the Domestic Policy Council and C.E.O. of America First Institute, is also being considered.
In any event, there’s only so much time left for the Trump-adjacent to make their presence felt on the campaign trail, or to make peace with the candidate. Steve Bannon, fresh out of prison and somehow deeply tan, hasn’t been asked to speak at a rally, although he has spoken to the candidate, I’m told. Nikki Haley has also been noticeably absent from Trump rallies, telling Fox News that she hasn’t spoken to him since July—a conscious decoupling, perhaps, although one suspects Haley would happily make herself available to the media if Trump asked. Alas, Tucker Carlson is known to dislike Haley, and the campaign clearly doesn’t view her as an asset in the final stretch as they scramble to galvanize low-propensity, first-time voting bros, rather than trying to win over suburban voters.
Certainly, it’s hard to imagine that was the demographic Trump had in mind while cruising around in a garbage truck in an orange and white safety vest to highlight Joe Biden’s recent unforced error, in which he may, or may not, have likened Trump supporters to “garbage.” Regardless, the working-class role play will be short-lived. On Election Night, the former president and three-time presidential candidate will take in the results at a private watch party at Mar-a-Lago with his inner circle, family, closest supporters, and donors. His fan base will be at the Palm Beach convention center, where he’ll arrive when he’s ready to make a statement. I think we already know what that will be.
It's beginning to look like women are showing up to vote. Men... not so much.
Inside Mar-a-Lago: PA Anxiety, Chief of Staff Games & Czar R.F.K. Jr.
The Trump campaign has paused its premature celebration and fallen into sweat mode, as early-voting numbers indicate more women are turning up than men in must-win Pennsylvania, and operatives are bringing out the briefcases for lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” says a source.
Not unlike 2020, Trump and his allies are preemptively making outlandish and extreme assertions to lay the groundwork for a claim, if they don’t prevail, that the election was stolen. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
October 31, 2024
We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.
Pennsylvania is obviously a must-win state for both campaigns… but it’s really crucial for Trump. While his inner circle feels confident about winning the Sunbelt, they recognize that they have a good chance of losing Michigan, where the gender gap is stark and students are coming out in record numbers. (A new CNN poll shows Harris up 5 points in the state.) So the situation in Pennsylvania—where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote—has sent the campaign into a tailspin during the past two days.
Not unlike 2020, Trump and his allies are preemptively making outlandish and extreme assertions to lay the groundwork for a claim, if they don’t prevail, that the election was stolen. They’re also engaging in the early stages of election lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” said a campaign source. “Anyone who hears how rabid they are about this issue can’t walk away from this and think they feel comfortable about where they’re at in PA. They’re talking about criminal referrals. They want to find poll watchers who they feel are engaged in voter suppression so that they can refer criminal prosecutions.” (An R.N.C. spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.)
You could almost hear the anxiety in Charlie Kirk’s tweets last night, as he implored young bros to turn out. “Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” Kirk posted on Twitter/X. “If you want a vision of the future if you don’t vote, imagine Kamala’s voice cackling, forever. Men need to GO VOTE NOW.”
As I reported two weeks ago, Trump has already zeroed in on Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley as his scapegoat if things go south. The lawsuits have also already begun—one of which they won in Bucks County, when they complained that a poll watcher had turned people away till Election Day because the lines were too long. (The judge ruled in their favor, extending the drop-off day for mail-in ballots to November 1.) Democrats, meanwhile, have sued over alleged ballot problems in Erie County, according to Politico.
And while Trump may want to blame Whatley and his “election integrity unit” for a loss, the campaign is also preparing to blame outside groups who were supposed to handle Trump’s ground game. Sure, figureheads like Kirk at Turning Point and Elon Musk at America PAC are firmly planted in Trump’s inner circle and would probably walk away unscathed. But the same can’t be said for Phil Cox and Generra Peck, who have essentially commandeered Musk’s America PAC and are seen as too closely aligned with Trumpworld’s collective enemy Ron DeSantis. “We’re solely focused on winning, and we’re not looking at anything else. That’s the only thing that matters,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
Stocking Trump’s Cabinet
Meanwhile, others in Trump’s orbit are manifesting late-stage jitters. In a bizarre interview with Kaitlan Collins, Trump’s transition chair and Cantor Fitzgerald C.E.O. Howard Lutnick revealed that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had successfully convinced him, over a two-and-a-half-hour conversation, that vaccines cause autism (they don’t)—a worrying signal given Trump’s recent pronouncement that he would let Kennedy “go wild on medicines.” Earlier this week, R.F.K. claimed that Trump promised to give him “control” of the Health and Human Services agency—seen by many as an apparent quid pro quo for his Trump endorsement.But I’m told it’s conventional wisdom inside Mar-a-Lago that it would be impossible to get Kennedy confirmed in the Senate, even if Republicans pick up more than two seats. More likely, I’m told, he could be expected to wind up with a “czar”-like advisory role similar to what’s been promised to Elon Musk, who could have free rein running a so-called “Department of Government Efficiency”—an agency that Trump conjured up the other day. Lutnick also acknowledged in the same interview that R.F.K. wouldn’t make it into the cabinet as H.H.S. secretary.
Clearly, it’s silly season for Trump staffing speculation, especially with the candidate bouncing names off people for feedback and teasing those around him with posts that even he knows wouldn’t be right for them. Most recently, Trump’s longtime friend Steve Witkoff, the real estate magnate who famously brokered the détente between Trump and DeSantis at Miami’s Shell Bay Club, has managed to get himself on the hypothetical shortlist for White House chief of staff. Witkoff, who was with Trump during the thwarted assassination plot on the golf course, spoke at the Madison Square Garden rally.
As much as Trump enjoys his company, many close to the former president say he doesn’t have the political bona fides to navigate Washington and actually pass legislation. Kevin McCarthy, another name in consideration, could handle that, but he has detractors not only in the Congressional Freedom Caucus, but also around Trump—like his nemesis Matt Gaetz, who’s been traveling around with the former president. Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign co-manager, is in consideration, but it’s not her style to lobby. Brooke Rollins, his former director of the Domestic Policy Council and C.E.O. of America First Institute, is also being considered.
In any event, there’s only so much time left for the Trump-adjacent to make their presence felt on the campaign trail, or to make peace with the candidate. Steve Bannon, fresh out of prison and somehow deeply tan, hasn’t been asked to speak at a rally, although he has spoken to the candidate, I’m told. Nikki Haley has also been noticeably absent from Trump rallies, telling Fox News that she hasn’t spoken to him since July—a conscious decoupling, perhaps, although one suspects Haley would happily make herself available to the media if Trump asked. Alas, Tucker Carlson is known to dislike Haley, and the campaign clearly doesn’t view her as an asset in the final stretch as they scramble to galvanize low-propensity, first-time voting bros, rather than trying to win over suburban voters.
Certainly, it’s hard to imagine that was the demographic Trump had in mind while cruising around in a garbage truck in an orange and white safety vest to highlight Joe Biden’s recent unforced error, in which he may, or may not, have likened Trump supporters to “garbage.” Regardless, the working-class role play will be short-lived. On Election Night, the former president and three-time presidential candidate will take in the results at a private watch party at Mar-a-Lago with his inner circle, family, closest supporters, and donors. His fan base will be at the Palm Beach convention center, where he’ll arrive when he’s ready to make a statement. I think we already know what that will be.
