Place for Dummies to Hang

[SpasticGramps]

The widow maker trade is brutal. The floor of the NYSE is littered with the bodies of professional traders who have tried to short the printing press.

The outcome of outright global monetization and currency wars is well known by many. Timing is the only question and trying to catch the printing press short will destroy many smart people just as the inevitable outcome will destroy those who believe unicorn and fairy tale economics can last forever.

We'll see on Bass. People were saying the same thing about him shorting the CDO market and now whose laughing?

Soros just made $1bil shorting the Yen and so did Bass. I don't see Roubini's name in this article anywhere.

Investors including David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital , Daniel Loeb's Third Point LLC and Kyle Bass's Hayman Capital Management LP, also made big trading profits by riding the yen down, the Journal said.

I stand by the statement that Roubini is a media prostitute.

 

[unspoken]

"Japan is going to need significant depreciation of the yen to increase its net exports because domestic demand is going to be anemic for a while. Therefore on a fundamental basis, the yen is going to be much weaker rather than stronger because you need improvement of external balance given the shock to the domestic economy," -Roubini 2011

You don't see him on that list because he's an economist, not a hedge fund manager.

 

[SpasticGramps]

Yes, right. The mentality of depreciating currency to increase exports works until every other country is doing it.

Thus, currency wars which beget trade wars, which beget real wars.

It's the Ivory Tower answer to everything = depreciating currency to increase exports.

It works until it doesn't.

Japan's domestic demand is going to anemic because they have more adult diapers being sold than children diapers.

They have a demographic issue which cannot be solved by printing money.

Roubini is a media sideshow.

 

[Bag]

seems yall too smart, i thought this was a dummie thread ?

 

[Laughing Jim]

This country was born divided. In division freedom was born.

Not everyone wanted to revolt against England, thus the loyalist.

Sometimes you just have to grab the bull by the horns and fuck compromising principles with politically corrupt factions.

Goddamned right!

 

[lost in a sea]

its pretty obvious the whole system is being run into the ground on purpose, we were set up for this for decades..

the empire is leaving the usa and europe but not before it sinks the ship..

 

[ronbo51]

The oh so smart crowd that are busy depreciating their currencies to boost exports seem to have forgotten that they import a lot of oil.

 

[Galactic]

Re: Place for Dummies to Hang

Oil is cheap and profitable.

 

[unspoken]

Gramps, will you please weigh in on the oil situation in the US? Re: domestic production, how long we have until domestic production leads to exports and how long before it is actually meaningful to the US economy. Obviously people aren't going to be running out and converting their vehicles. I know you are extremely knowledgeable on that. I think the doomsday types are making mountains out of molehills on the devaluation thing. These are not currency wars, more like tickle fights.

I believe I've said it before in here and I'll say it again, all of those guys(bass schiff etc) would be perfectly reasonable and right if we were on the gold standard, but it's almost like they don't fully grasp how fiat money works. It's the strangest thing to me, they seem like smart guys(sometimes).

 

[SpasticGramps]

Gramps, will you please weigh in on the oil situation in the US? Re: domestic production, how long we have until domestic production leads to exports and how long before it is actually meaningful to the US economy.

I had a deal written up and came back to firefox crapping out.

I'll rewrite it later. It's going to be a while IMO. The amount of capital needed to drill these horizontal hydraulically fracked shale wells is massive. 12,000 MD ft vertical well is about $2.5mil. 12,000 MD ft shale play averages $6mil. Estimated total recovery is similar.

High oil prices eat up disposable income which drives down prices so who knows really man.

These are not currency wars, more like tickle fights.

How quippy of you.

G20: Brazil Finance Minister: Currency Wars Have Become More Intense

By Costas Paris and P.R. Venkat

MOSCOW--Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said Friday that a number of exporting countries are finding it increasingly difficult to compete as others are taking steps to weaken their currencies.

"The currency war has become more explicit now because trade conflicts have become sharper," Mantega told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview. "Countries are trying to devalue their currencies because of falling global trade. So many of them are in a difficult situation."

Germany warns against ‘currency wars’

BERLIN: Germany’s finance minister on Friday warned of the dangers of countries intervening in the foreign exchange markets, as top officials from the group of 20 met amid fears of a “currency war”.

Yep. Little kids playing tickle in the sandbox.

but it's almost like they don't fully grasp how fiat money works. It's the strangest thing to me, they seem like smart guys(sometimes).

I'm sure the feeling is mutual.

 

[unspoken]

Yeah I am aware of G7 and G20 this year.

While G20 officials played down talk of "currency wars" -- a term coined by Brazil -- and International Monetary Fund head Christine Lagarde said they were more "currency worries", officials privately say they expect exchange rates to return to be on the agenda for many meetings to come. --Yeah yeah more propaganda, I know.

This is something that we collectively need to work on. I think currency war implies malicious intent, and I don't think that's what's happening.

I am really interested in what more you had to say about oil though, if you find the time and will to post more. I have started copying everything long that I type into here because that seems to happen a lot.

Also, speaking of propaganda, notice how no "German official" ever said "currency war" or "malicious intent" or anything like that? Makes a sexy headline though, right?

 

[SpasticGramps]

I think currency war implies malicious intent, and I don't think that's what's happening.

And you aren't stuck in a third world country that the Gang of 7 is exporting inflation to.

"I'm sorry for wrecking your economy. I wasn't trying to be mean. Just trying to make things better for myself." isn't a good excuse.

Currency depreciation and rate fixing whether being malicious or an "oblivious" reaction to other global currency depreciation and rate fixing has trade implications.

The fact that the Japanese, American's, Europe, etc are going to try and monetize credit expansion with declining demographics makes the race all the way to the bottom inevitable.

Tickle fights are fun until someone hits their head and gets really pissed off.

All this will serve to do is make the crony industries bigger and exasperate income inequality at a more rapid pace.

It will work until it doesn't.

 

[TheArchitect]

And you aren't stuck in a third world country that the Gang of 7 is exporting inflation to.

"I'm sorry for wrecking your economy. I wasn't trying to be mean. Just trying to make things better for myself." isn't a good excuse.

.

Whaddyaaa meeeeeeen??????

 

[ronbo51]

My mom was born in Germany in 1928. My parents and grandparents lived during the depression. For my mom the only thing that kept her from desolation was Hitler youth, where they took kids up into the alps and fed them and made them do gymnastics. Her brother sold a gasthaus just before the real devaluation and his lifelong savings was evaporated in a few weeks once hyperinflation really took off. For decades a loaf of bread in Germany was 10 cents. By 1918 a loaf was 3.50. By 1922 it was a billion marks. Not much time to "prep". My grandparents were railroad employees so they rode the depression pretty well. My dad sold bootleg whiskey as a kid in DC growing up (drugs always pay) My grandparents had a farm until they died and had an orchard, gardens, root cellar, ponds. They never forgot. And my mom loved potatoes up until she died, they kept her and her loved ones alive during the Weimar and then the war.
We live in very difficult times. On the surface things seem like we could just limp along. But underneath a roiling boil is trying to break out. I don't pretend to know what the end game is here but I do know that no paper currency has survived much longer than ours has, and we've fairly well ruined ours. The big players are making a move on the last available collateral ( I read that Africa could yield between 5 and 10 trillion in interest to the banks if the governments and resources could be collateralised). They already own all the houses(your mortgage belongs to the Fed via Freddie and Fannie and FHA), most of the resources, and the gold. When the currencies collapse someone will try and float a new system, but it will probably (certainly) be one hell of an ugly mess. The banks will claim ownership of everything, governments will be broke and we will be, well, as Bob Weir said, "The future's here. We are it. We are on our own"

 

[unspoken]

Good one, Architect. Now tell me there's no difference between Zimbabwe and a modern developed economy.

Also, yeah, Gramps, there is a remote possibility for it to escalate into an all out war, but there are a lot of things that could escalate like that. I'm just saying I think you are treating it like this is a likely outcome:
http://youtu.be/98AzJT8FlmY

When it's not.