Have you looked at the North Pole lately?

[igrowone]

well, what say our aussie members, is it that hot?



(CNN)Australia experienced its hottest average day across the countryTuesday, with the national temperature soaring as devastating wildfires continued to burn across New South Wales (NSW) state.

The average maximum temperature across the country on Tuesday was 40.9 degrees Celsius (105.6 Fahrenheit), according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology -- beating the previous 2013 record of 40.3 Celsius (104.5 Fahrenheit).

 

[TychoMonolyth]

Hottest day ever with hotter forecasted.

 

[kickarse]

Yep it was the "hottest day" ever in the history of mankind

was a lovely 22c here, and our first day of summer

37c yesterday, and 21c today, will be 38 c tomorrow and 17 the next day
then 21-25c for the next week

its one big massive unprecedented heatwave lol

 

[igrowone]

Yep it was the "hottest day" ever in the history of mankind

was a lovely 22c here, and our first day of summer

37c yesterday, and 21c today, will be 38 c tomorrow and 17 the next day
then 21-25c for the next week

its one big massive unprecedented heatwave lol

you live down melbourne way as i recall
so the temps to the north aren't real?
or you don't care? more likely i'd guess

 

[kickarse]

It said "global warming" lol

I'm sure they own a few air-cons up north
its only hot because its dry, its only dry because the water is cold

its pissing down in Africa, that's where the warm water pissed off to
happens every so often, MAN or WOMAN had nothing to do with it
best off enjoying the nice weather while it lasts

it was also Australia's coldest daytime summer temp the other day,
global cooling maybe

 

[kickarse]

I'm betting they will be having floods up north soon enough

 

[St. Phatty]

Here is a recent data point -

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ve-as-bushfire-threatens-blue-mountains-homes

Australia at 40 degrees plus has me keeping an eye out for firefighter descriptions of the fires.

In Redding when it was 110 in July 2018, the fire behaved very differently from what most of the fire commanders had experience with.

It's a pretty bad fire the way it is, partially because it's just the beginning of summer there so they are looking at 3 months of the the same.

The fire commanders in Redding said that the fire became turbulent essentially. As if a 20 mile per hour wind was blowing, but on a perfectly calm day. Then it would change direction after 5 minutes, and and then change to another direction after another 10 minutes.

That means the fire is blowing in too many directions. Most of the fires that have made the headlines the last few years - the wind was only blowing in one direction.

When the front of the fire is blowing in 3 alternating directions, it is a whole different level of Fvcked-ness.

But that hasn't come out yet. It's a difficult situation, as I'm sure the Sydney residents will find after breathing smoke for another 3 months.

The fire they're having now isn't just hard on koala bears. From talking with neighbors who have old growth forest and have lived hear 45 years, infant mortality when it's a smokey super-dry summer goes up to 100%.

I hope the people in Eastern Australia have some good Cannabis edibles to help them deal with Da Fires. And now, the Heat.

I'm not sure it's hotter than in the past. Just more CO2, more and bigger plants to run out of water and become wildfire fuel, and more fire.

 

[hard rain]

Meanwhile in most of Australia (apart from a tiny bit way down South), we record our record temp. 49.9C or 121.8F
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ottest-ever-day-one-day-after-previous-record'

Massive bush fires and heatwave. Absolutely huge fire North of Sydney that has been burning weeks .It's not just this year. We keep breaking heat records almost every year. It feels hotter and drier and that is what the record reflects. Yes, we are a land of drought and fires, floods too. This is a lot drier than usual and started earlier in the season.

 

[TychoMonolyth]

Coming to North America and Europe this summer. It's the new norm, and it's only getting worse.

 

[St. Phatty]

Meanwhile in most of Australia (apart from a tiny bit way down South), we record our record temp. 49.9C or 121.8F
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...ottest-ever-day-one-day-after-previous-record'

Massive bush fires and heatwave. Absolutely huge fire North of Sydney that has been burning weeks .It's not just this year. We keep breaking heat records almost every year.

Australia's summer is not a perfect indicator of what the Northern Hemisphere has in store for 2020.

But it's close.

For those of you in Australia, how big a fire-break do you think you need to protect a house ?

I think if it's a forest, you need at least 50 yards, because the radiated heat when the forest burns will knock you over.

 

[Zeez]

Building codes will have to change so that houses are not only fire proof but survivable in a burn with the surrounding fuel supply.

 

[trichrider]

Future reductions in polar cold air mass and cold air outbreaks revealed from isentropic analysis

Yuki Kanno
Toshiki Iwasaki



First published: 11 December 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086076

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1029/2019GL086076

PDF

Abstract
This study quantifies future changes in the polar cold air mass (PCAM) below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K and its horizontal fluxes, which are an indicator for the intensity of cold air outbreaks, by analyzing the outputs from five climate models from the Fifth Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project. Under the business‐as‐usual scenario, the multi‐model means of the wintertime total hemispheric PCAM decrease by 37% in the Northern Hemisphere and by 34% in the Southern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century. The midlatitude equatorward PCAM fluxes are projected to decrease significantly by around 2050. This is primarily due to the reduction of the PCAM, and to a lesser extent due to the weakening of the extratropical meridional circulation. Finally, inter‐model differences in the total hemispheric PCAM reduction are shown to be linearly related to the climate sensitivity to the global mean surface air temperature.

Plain Language Summary

In winter, the polar regions are reservoirs of extremely cold air masses. Sometimes, the polar cold air outflows to the midlatitudes and results in very cold weather. This study quantitatively evaluated the future changes in the polar cold air mass and its outflow to the midlatitudes in the winter hemispheres. We found that both the polar cold air mass and its outflow are projected to decrease significantly by the end of the 21st century in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres due to the increase in the global mean surface temperature. These findings provide a possible scenario of future polar climate change.


https://sci-hub.tw/10.1029/2019GL086076

 

[kickarse]

Well at least they explained how they calculated the temps on our two hottest days ever.
They had a guess, extrapolated the temps out over 1'000's of km

only got 700 stations to cover roughly 7680000 sq km, that's bound to be accurate
its about 11000 sq km per weather station

it smells like bullshit

not saying its not hot out there, it is summer after all, and 90% of the place is a desert
but lets not carry on like there is any accuracy to their claims

the BOM has been known to adjust temps to suit the warming narrative, they have adjusted most of the old heat records(down) and simply don't count anything before 1910

been a bad day for the fire fighters, a few dead and a few injured
ya can't just lock the bush up, you need to maintain it,
FUCK the Greenie's and there fucked up policy's

 

[hard rain]

I can't take you seriously, Kickarse, after your Fabian Socialist conspiracy rant a few pages back, which I see you seem to have now deleted. Funny that.
You're obviously biased by your political views.

The Bureau of Meteorology faking temps?! Too funny.

 

[trichrider]

huge fires? that's got to influence the temperatures recorded.
hottest ever? not by a long shot.
previous interglacial proxies show higher temperature AND CO2.
our journey here is short, enjoy it while you can.

 

[trichrider]

Renaissance in Climate Physics Plus Political Reform

December 7, 2019

There have been two great experiments in authoritarian government and each burdened society with bad science and confiscatory taxation. In the early 1600s the establishment insisted that the universe rotated around the Earth. More recently, the establishment insists that violent weather and global warming are due to society’s incorrect behavior. Climate alarmists from Maurice Strong, in the 1990s, to today’s Christiana Figueres, have advised using the UN to basically change the Western World to a political system dominated by bureaucrats. This article reviews that the political reformation that began in the early 1600s was accompanied by a renaissance in physics. And observes that today’s popular uprisings could be the early stages of another great reformation accompanied by another renaissance in the physics of the solar system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3CjSBCahBc

[youtubeif]s3CjSBCahBc[/youtubeif]

Little Ice Age

The 1500s suffered from cool and wet weather as part of the Little Ice Age and the establishment not only turned to bad science it became murderous. Witches “caused” the bad weather and thousands were tried, convicted and executed by highly educated magistrates. Today’s climate control freaks such as Kennedy, Suzuki and Krugman have been calling for “deniers” to be imprisoned for “heresy”.
But the intensity of today’s fears and protests could be “ending action”. Perhaps the last great reformation can provide not just guidance but hope. And Galileo’s own writings reveal both the political and scientific struggle. It wasn’t easy.
Indeed, Galileo was frustrated with official obstinance:

“My dear Kepler, I wish that we might laugh at the remarkable stupidity of the common herd. What do you have to say about the principal philosophers of this academy who are filled with the stubbornness of an asp and do not want to look at either the planets, the moon or the telescope…”– Favero, (1900, 10:423)
​

Galileo and Kepler ‘Eureka’ Moments

In 1633 he slammed politics with:

“When…others… say the Earth moves is heresy, while demonstrations, observations, and necessary conclusions show that it does move, in what swamp will he have lost himself and his Holy Church?”
​

That authoritarian experiment prevailed into the early 1600s, when it was bypassed by a renaissance in physics and the reformation of in-your-face and in-your-wallet government. In physics, there were two key “Eurekas”. In 1610 when Galileo observed that moons were rotating around Jupiter. Establishment dogma was that all heavenly objects revolved around the Earth. The other breakthrough was when Kepler in 1605 discovered the real shape of planetary orbits. This was ironical because he had spent years trying to fit the observed orbits into certain geometric “models”. Seems familiar.
Some 40 “models” were tried and seen to fail. Then he tried the ellipse.
Our world of political conflict is the result of more than a hundred years of increasingly abusive bureaucratic ambition. This is provoking popular uprisings that could lead to another great reformation. And with remarkable finesse it is accompanied by a renaissance in physics. Also, about the Solar System, with authorities unrelenting in their condemnation of today’s heresy.
In the 1990s physicists, Penn and Livingston, determined that the long trend in the Sun’s increasing activity would reverse to declining. It has with Solar Cycles 23 and 24 being the weakest since the early 1900s.

Cosmic rays have more than enough energy to force changes in cloud cover

Researchers in the 1970s observed that cooling trends were associated with declining solar activity. And vice versa. However, changes in the Sun’s heat output have been small relative to changes in the Earth’s temperature. Something else has been in play.
Water, in ocean and atmospheric currents, has been the main conveyor of surface heat from hot to cold places. And clouds beyond providing cooling shade reflect the Sun’s heat to outer space.
Cosmic rays have more than enough energy to force changes in cloud cover.
Energy!
In the world of particle physics, these are relatively big, fast and furious. Indeed, one detected in 1991 had so much energy that researchers called it the “Oh-My-God” particle. So, even average ones hitting our atmosphere produce a fascinating series of collisions. An atmospheric shower of secondary radiation that cascades down, creating X-rays as well as ions of nitrogen and oxygen.
And ions can be the nuclei for cloud formation.
When solar activity is increasing the strengthening magnetic field reduces cosmic ray penetration. Going the other way, diminishing solar activity reduces field strength allowing more rays through. Supercooled water vapor needs a little something to condense out on. Like jet exhaust from airliners forming condensation trails. Or from cosmic rays.

Forbush decrease

Physicist Henrik Svensmark in the late 1990s theorized that such rays could prompt cooling cloud formation. Investigation required the tools of science. Logic, determination, instrumentation and time.
And when investigating particle physics a good place to start was with the powerful accelerator CERN located near Geneva. Concerned about the threat to its CO2 theories, the establishment tried to block the experiment. But Svensmark in the appropriately named CLOUD experiment eventually got the time and in 2011 it supported his theory.
What is terrific about this is the ability to measure cloud cover. Next, it is significant to come up with a theory. And of historical importance is that the theory has been supported in “the lab”, which is very short term. And in the great outdoors.
The latter includes brief surges in solar activity. Called coronal mass ejections (CME), they are associated with substantial changes in the Earth’s magnetic field. The pulse of energy prompts a decline in cosmic rays, called the “Forbush decrease” (FD). The hit can be over hours with the recovery taking a few days. Occurrence of FDs relates to the 11-year solar cycle.

The Great Global Warming Swindle

Each event influences cloud formation, providing is on-going confirmation.
Nir Shaviv is an astrophysicist who had accepted the CO2 and warming story. (at 0:20 seconds from start) Why? Because the media was going on about it. Then looking into it, changed his mind and then accomplished some significant research. In 2014 he was awarded the Einstein Fellowship at Princeton.
His research observed cosmic ray influence from vast changes in our – the Milky Way – galaxy. With a periodicity from 22 years out to 32 million years.
So, with evidence from over millions of years to this year’s late spring and early winter, the Cosmic Ray Theory seems to be another significant breakthrough in physics. The establishment is hostile about skepticism natural to science, again. And is trying to quell popular uprisings against big and bullying governments, again. And political history seems in the early stages of a great reformation, again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYhCQv5tNsQ


[youtubeif]oYhCQv5tNsQ[/youtubeif]


https://canadafreepress.com/article/renaissance-in-climate-physics-plus-political-reform

 

[White Beard]

Very interesting. Not like your usual posts, trich: this looks at PCAM, which is as described. The study anticipates that both PCAM and outbreaks will reduce by up to 40% over the next 75 years - meaning that any cooling effect on global temperatures will be reduced by a substantial amount.

In the event this comes to pass (I don’t doubt the research), global temperatures should increase dramatically as the ameliorating effects of PCAM shrink. Not pleasant to think of temperature rise getting effectively a boost as 2100 approaches, but the prospect was already unpleasant.

Future reductions in polar cold air mass and cold air outbreaks revealed from isentropic analysis

Yuki Kanno
Toshiki Iwasaki



First published: 11 December 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086076

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1029/2019GL086076

[URL=https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/products/pericles/releasedAssets/images/pdf-icon.png]View ImagePDF[/URL]

Abstract
This study quantifies future changes in the polar cold air mass (PCAM) below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K and its horizontal fluxes, which are an indicator for the intensity of cold air outbreaks, by analyzing the outputs from five climate models from the Fifth Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project. Under the business‐as‐usual scenario, the multi‐model means of the wintertime total hemispheric PCAM decrease by 37% in the Northern Hemisphere and by 34% in the Southern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century. The midlatitude equatorward PCAM fluxes are projected to decrease significantly by around 2050. This is primarily due to the reduction of the PCAM, and to a lesser extent due to the weakening of the extratropical meridional circulation. Finally, inter‐model differences in the total hemispheric PCAM reduction are shown to be linearly related to the climate sensitivity to the global mean surface air temperature.

Plain Language Summary

In winter, the polar regions are reservoirs of extremely cold air masses. Sometimes, the polar cold air outflows to the midlatitudes and results in very cold weather. This study quantitatively evaluated the future changes in the polar cold air mass and its outflow to the midlatitudes in the winter hemispheres. We found that both the polar cold air mass and its outflow are projected to decrease significantly by the end of the 21st century in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres due to the increase in the global mean surface temperature. These findings provide a possible scenario of future polar climate change.


https://sci-hub.tw/10.1029/2019GL086076

 

[kickarse]

I can't take you seriously, Kickarse, after your Fabian Socialist conspiracy rant a few pages back, which I see you seem to have now deleted. Funny that.
You're obviously biased by your political views.

The Bureau of Meteorology faking temps?! Too funny.

Never deleted anything

Every Australian Labor PM since WW2 has been a Fabian, they started the British Labour party ffs

believe what you want, its all out there in history

and yes i fucking hate socialist especially the Fabians

check out acorn 1 and acorn 2 from the Bom, again its all there
when I doubt something someone says, I check it out first before making a dick of meself, facts are facts, unlike "man made global warming" or whatever its called this year

here ya go, a bit of reading material for ya
https://digital.library.lse.ac.uk/collections/fabiansociety/tracts1884-1901

 

[St. Phatty]

Australia is getting fascinating in the wrong way.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/austr...cond-day-in-a-row-wildfire-emergency-declared

They are beginning to describe the fire behavior they saw in Redding in 2018. A little early until they start interviewing gray hair fire commanders.

I always wondered why July & August were hotter in the US than June 21.

June 21 is the longest day of the year & gets the most sunshine.

Is Australia the same except 6 months different ?

I mean does it normally get hotter in January & February than in December ?

 

[igrowone]

Australia is getting fascinating in the wrong way.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/austr...cond-day-in-a-row-wildfire-emergency-declared

They are beginning to describe the fire behavior they saw in Redding in 2018. A little early until they start interviewing gray hair fire commanders.

I always wondered why July & August were hotter in the US than June 21.

June 21 is the longest day of the year & gets the most sunshine.

Is Australia the same except 6 months different ?

I mean does it normally get hotter in January & February than in December ?

the rule in the northern temperate zones is:
coldest average day - jan 20
hottest average day - july 20
30 days after the solstices