Is "PEAK OIL" the "NEW" "End-of-the-world"?

[NOKUY]

good article I just read while trying to figure out some things for my bio-diesel generator that's in the works for my Alaska homestead.

I figured you guys would have some thoughts on the article

“Peak oil” is becoming the latest doomsday buzzword.

It’s a well-thought-out theory that predicts that the rate at which we find and recover oil is soon going to fall behind the rate at which we consume it.

The point at which that happens is the “peak.” Prior to this peak, prices will have been relatively stable and reasonable, and the economies of the world have grown because the supply of energy outpaced the demand. But there is coming a time, and some say it’s here now, when the world’s oil fields cannot produce as fast as we consume. Demand will exceed supply, oil prices are going to skyrocket, and the world’s economies are going to begin to fail as the oil fields themselves fail.

Oil today is important to civilization. We use it to produce electric power and to make gasoline, heating oil, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, and more. Eighty-four percent goes to power and fuel, and only 16% to other things.

What happens if we run out?

Tidy little doomsday scenarios have been woven and show how transportation will stop running, food production will drop because of less fertilizer and pesticides, currency markets will fail, prices of everything will take off, and this will mean both the end of civilization as we know it and an irreversible decline in the human condition. It’s all very neat, but that doesn’t mean it’s accurate.

There had been predictions we would run out of oil as early as the 1920s. We were supposed to run out about 80 years ago. Over the next eight decades magazines such as Time, Newsweek, and Scientific American carried articles that grimly predicted the next date for when the world would go to hell in an oil-depleted handbasket. But each date has come and gone and barely been noticed, except that apologists occasionally explained why previous dates weren’t realized and why another future, but accurate, date would be the real McCoy.

How do they come up with these doomsday forecasts? Those who predict the future almost always think it’s going to be just more of the present. In every doomsday scenario, the present is stretched to extremes in the future. In this case, it’s the belief that things will get worse and worse because there’s no way for the world to go on unless it continues to be run on oil—because it is run on oil now.

But as with so many other pessimistic scenarios (remember Y2K?), peak oil will not be the end of the world; it just means the world has to change, and it is changing.

Yes, the supply of oil is running out. It only makes sense that if petroleum reserves are finite, each barrel taken from the earth depletes the amount left by one barrel.

But there are several things wrong with the doom forecast. First is the assumption that as oil becomes scarcer it will run out evenly for all users. That is, transportation, agriculture, and industry will all run down the same way. But the fact is, as substitutes are found for some uses, such as transportation and the production of electricity, it will lessen the pressure on other sectors of our life and, in particular, that 16% used for other purposes.

Also, there’s still plenty of crude. There just isn’t the right kind of crude. What’s running out is “sweet” crude; that’s raw petroleum with less than 1% sulfur content. It’s what most of our gasoline is made from, and it’s the most desirable oil. But there’s still lots of “sour” crude, oil with more than 1% sulfur. There’s also more crude locked up in tar sands and shale than there is in all the world’s current “proven” reserves. It’s just difficult to access, but that doesn’t mean it’ll always be that way.

Here’s another fact: There are already alternatives to the use of oil. They just have to be developed. For instance, there are transportation alternatives: diesels that run on soy oil, electric cars (powered from nuclear power plants), steam engines that run on any of several renewable energy sources. These are just the possibilities we now know of. Anyone who doesn’t think there are going to be other alternatives discovered (or invented) just hasn’t been paying attention to history. There are always some tinkerers, somewhere, ready to pounce on civilization with a new solution, and whose ideas or inventions will eventually become so commonplace that we’ll all come to think they were predictable—just as we have come to regard every marvel we have today as commonplace.

Am I saying the future is going to be rosy? No, because it never has been. There are going to be problems along the way—environmental, social, economic... But there are always problems. And there are people who are going to spend all their time predicting doom—some of them make pretty good money doing it. But there are also people who spend all their time trying to solve tomorrow’s problems. They’re the ones who make civilization move.

If we try to make the future just more of the present, it will get grim. And that’s what politicians, bureaucrats, and today’s stagnant corporations will try to do. They will try to manage fuel supplies, and they will attempt to keep today’s corporations in business. There may even be rationing, and more micromanaging of the economy.

But what will allow us to maintain a vibrant and growing (not just sustainable) economy is accepting change, letting the entrepreneurs innovate and profit, and letting those who don’t change fail.

As long as we maintain a free-market economy where those who can satisfy our needs and desires are rewarded, and those who cannot will be allowed to fail, we can expect a better future. As soon as we allow our politicians, bureaucrats, and special interest groups (be they corporations, government agencies, or environmental groups) try to mandate the future, doomsday will arrive

 

[HCSmyth]

Maybe? There was a show on the discovery channel months ago about this.

 

[NOKUY]

I was looking for something I could grow in the Northern part of the mat-su valley for "seed oil" and I found that soybeans wont work, and Hemp for seed/oil... or otherwise is still not legal.

anyone have any thoughts on what would work/grow there for the oil part?

I don't wanna be dependant on any part of this world.

 

[Kailua Kid]

Good Post.
The propaganda is "we need oil". "It's worth fighting & dying for". When nothing could be farther from the truth. All our internal combustion engines will run on corn & soy products. Most of our plastics can be made from hemp seed oil.
Petrochemical based fertilizers do more harm than good. They kill the life in the soil and promote erosion. Crops grown with petrochemical fertilizers have lower food value than crops grown with organic fertilizers.
Oil does give the petrochemical industry huge profits. The propaganda that "we need oil" gives people the incentive to fight & die for these corporations profits.
Renewable resources are the future. A future the petrochemical industry doesn't want you to see anytime soon.
As long as the CFR controls our government (and by extension controls the world) we will be sold the big oil lie and people will continue to die for these corporations profits.

 

[HCSmyth]

I found the article while doin' research for making my "bio-diesel" generator for my Alaska Homestead.



but I was looking for something I could grow in the Northern part of the mat-su valley for "seed oil" and I found that soybeans wont work, and Hemp for seed/oil... or otherwise is still not legal.

anyone have any thoughts on what would work/grow there for the oil part?

I don't wanna be dependant on any part of this world.

Are you saying soybeans will not work because of the climate? Because I am pretty sure you can use soybeans to make the veg oil needed for bio-diesel. Hemp is good for oil yield but not best. But it could be the best fit for that northern climate. You could try sunflowers but again, I do not know about the climate.

Remember, you still have to process the plant into oil and that takes work which = energy. And contrary to what some people may suggest right now there is no such thing as "free lunch" when it comes to producing energy. That is why my country has the issues arising from our need of this limited resource.

 

[ampersand]

good read

letting the entrepreneurs innovate and profit, and letting those who don’t change fail...

...is the biggest problem i see facing forward just from pure bureaucratic inefficacy of our current regime. haliburton can't save the world, and they're the only ones that could apply for the contract

there most definitely can be a point in the relatively close future where nature will change faster than government can respond.

i just read about jatropha (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jatropha) but i do not know if its hardy enough for alaska. i have also read that certain types of grass can be used for bio-fuel. the most lucrative bio-fuel catalyst would be vats of algae you dump waste into and they release ethanol as byproduct.

corn needs LOTS of water which should be more readily available up north but i don't think it'd grow that well...? dunno

on a side note: personally i want a fish farm that fertilizes the fields that feeds the cows and makes oil which run the tanks to grow the fish - step - repeat. industry with a positive carbon foot print, not many of thoes around... i wish i could make it to alaska... good people up there

 

[AlaskaGrows]

I don't wanna be dependant on any part of this world.

i couldnt agree with u anymore.

but for renewable energy, wind mills and solar power is the best way to go that i know of. but i am curious to know what the process would be to create fuel from hemp seed oil or another seed for that matter. would probaly take alot of energy.

AG

nice read btw.

 

[Guest]

We're not running out of oil anytime soon . The real cause of our (USA's) dependence on foreign oil is a combination of environmental regulations and profiteering of the oil cartels . The oil companies have already developed efficient ways of processing shale and there are still a lot of sweet oil fields owned by private citizens here in the US . The oil crises of the mid-late seventies wasn't solely caused by the middle eastern embargos . What the oil companies didn't tell the general public at that time was that they stopped buying the oil being pumped by private citizens here in the US . My grandfather was one of the many people who had to shut their pumps down (which later resulted in him having to sell off his land) . There's rumors of Saudi getting close to peak , but the Saudi Government denies those rumors and say they still have a few decades left at current capacity . Only time will tell on who we should believe about that . Iran , Iraq , Russia still have plenty of oil plus huge reserves in the Pacific between China and Japan . Oil will not run out in our lifetime .

But do not misunderstand what I am saying here . The oil industry is all about profit . We need to get away from oil dependence ASAP . For the simple reason that the profiteering is getting worse . The oil companies would love for you to believe that we're running out because it justifies raising the cost . Ethanol is not the direction we should be taking . Ethanol is a politicians sales pitch to the public for re-election . Switching over to ethanol has a hidden dark side that the public is only beginning to become aware of . Their was a very good reason for the large protests in Brazil when Dubya went there to give a speech . Simply put , the more corn gets used for ethanol , the less food gets put on the table . Price of corn is skyrocketing south of our border which leads to a sharp increase in the price of food . Hydrogen and Biodiesel should be the direction we take . Biodiesel can also be made out of peanut oil , sunflower seed oil , hempseed oil and a few others I can't think of right now .

I highly recommend checking out www.knowledgepublications.com . They have a wealth of resources on getting off the grid .

 

[BadKarma]

^^^ What he said^^^

 

[HCSmyth]

We're not running out of oil anytime soon . The real cause of our (USA's) dependence on foreign oil is a combination of environmental regulations and profiteering of the oil cartels . The oil companies have already developed efficient ways of processing shale and there are still a lot of sweet oil fields owned by private citizens here in the US . The oil crises of the mid-late seventies wasn't solely caused by the middle eastern embargos . What the oil companies didn't tell the general public at that time was that they stopped buying the oil being pumped by private citizens here in the US . My grandfather was one of the many people who had to shut their pumps down (which later resulted in him having to sell off his land) . There's rumors of Saudi getting close to peak , but the Saudi Government denies those rumors and say they still have a few decades left at current capacity . Only time will tell on who we should believe about that . Iran , Iraq , Russia still have plenty of oil plus huge reserves in the Pacific between China and Japan . Oil will not run out in our lifetime .

But do not misunderstand what I am saying here . The oil industry is all about profit . We need to get away from oil dependence ASAP . For the simple reason that the profiteering is getting worse . The oil companies would love for you to believe that we're running out because it justifies raising the cost . Ethanol is not the direction we should be taking . Ethanol is a politicians sales pitch to the public for re-election . Switching over to ethanol has a hidden dark side that the public is only beginning to become aware of . Their was a very good reason for the large protests in Brazil when Dubya went there to give a speech . Simply put , the more corn gets used for ethanol , the less food gets put on the table . Price of corn is skyrocketing south of our border which leads to a sharp increase in the price of food . Hydrogen and Biodiesel should be the direction we take . Biodiesel can also be made out of peanut oil , sunflower seed oil , hempseed oil and a few others I can't think of right now .

I highly recommend checking out www.knowledgepublications.com . They have a wealth of resources on getting off the grid .

I think you are right on with some of criticism because they are too much of a “Hail Mary” or long shot kind of planning.

Frankly, I think the best solution is to legislate in the direction that all new cars by a certain date are hybrids. This will reduce oil consumption and it is a K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid!) idea.

 

[NOKUY]

"FISH OILS" duh

Ive recently heard of seafood processing plants changing there objective, and actually harvesting fish-oils for "bio-diesel"....seeems to make HUGE sense.

...ahhhhhhhhh...thanks for the reminder 4 my stoned ass..."fish oil" "bio-diesel"

suplement w/ solar/hydro/and wind

fin-fish farms are illegal in Alaska BTW.


just a heads up.. cannaries (process plants) in alaska will let u take salmon heads and salmon bellies all day (otherwise they go back to the river)

(dog mushers always come around for the heads, and natives always want the bellies).."eskimo candy"..when brined and dried

 

[NOKUY]

Are you saying soybeans will not work because of the climate? Because I am pretty sure you can use soybeans to make the veg oil needed for bio-diesel. Hemp is good for oil yield but not best. But it could be the best fit for that northern climate. You could try sunflowers but again, I do not know about the climate.

Remember, you still have to process the plant into oil and that takes work which = energy. And contrary to what some people may suggest right now there is no such thing as "free lunch" when it comes to producing energy. That is why my country has the issues arising from our need of this limited resource.

soybeans wont work in alaska @ least from everything ive read .

...maybe in huge greenhouse...and I could figure that out too if I needed to



I need to figure out how much bio-fuel I would need in order to run a 6K genny in the backwoods, and really only need to properly run a 600 watt HPS 12/12 12 months a year

all the rest to me is trivial.

 

[Mackawber]

We are family! = (Oil producers / Oil speculators / Oil refiners)

We are screwed = developing nations, middle class, consumers

The price now is over $80 a barrel. In Jan 1999 it was $10. If this continues, oil will soon be over $100 a barrel heading towards $150 a barrel.

 

[NOKUY]

We are family! = (Oil producers / Oil speculators / Oil refiners)

We are screwed = developing nations, middle class, consumers

The price now is over $80 a barrel. In Jan 1999 it was $10. If this continues, oil will soon be over $100 a barrel heading towards $150 a barrel.

BEIN' SELF SUFFICIENT....HAS NEVER MADE MORE SENSE!

 

[Guest]

The price now is over $80 a barrel. In Jan 1999 it was $10. If this continues, oil will soon be over $100 a barrel heading towards $150 a barrel.

I find it ironic that the price has been steadily rising to now over $80/barrel but at the pump in my area , gas has been getting cheaper

Kind of makes me wonder why the prices jumped well over $3.00/gal of gas last year when crude was barely over $60/barrel

 

[Feyd]

Good post

Source? My apologies if you already posted it

 

[Guest]

Even Zionist denier Alex Jones says peak oil is a scam... http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

 

[HCSmyth]

"FISH OILS" duh

Ive recently heard of seafood processing plants changing there objective, and actually harvesting fish-oils for "bio-diesel"....seeems to make HUGE sense.

...ahhhhhhhhh...thanks for the reminder 4 my stoned ass..."fish oil" "bio-diesel"

suplement w/ solar/hydro/and wind

fin-fish farms are illegal in Alaska BTW.


just a heads up.. cannaries (process plants) in alaska will let u take salmon heads and salmon bellies all day (otherwise they go back to the river)

(dog mushers always come around for the heads, and natives always want the bellies).."eskimo candy"..when brined and dried

Also, I know there is some promise with algae to produce biodiesel with greater yeilds than traditional land plants.

 

[Pops]

Yukon, if you are near a fast running stream, you might want to look at some of the German hydro-electric turbines. Way out in the boonies, it would require an expensive battery system, but is much better when you are connected to the grid. You might want to set up a series of wind turbines around Washington,D.C. It seems that there is always a lot of hot air blowing around there.

 

[vaprpig]

Greg Palast's newest book "Armed Madhouse" has an excellent chapter on the subject.
http://www.gregpalast.com/why-palast-is-wrong-and-why-the-oil-companies-dont-want-you-to-know-it/