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Glut of marijuana in Oregon is cautionary tale, experts say.

Gypsy Nirvana

Recalcitrant Reprobate -
Administrator
Veteran
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — When Oregon lawmakers created the state’s legal marijuana program, they had one goal in mind above all else: to convince illicit pot growers to leave the black market.

That meant low barriers for entering the industry that also targeted long-standing medical marijuana growers, whose product is not taxed. As a result, weed production boomed — with a bitter consequence.

Now, marijuana prices here are in freefall, and the craft cannabis farmers who put Oregon on the map decades before broad legalization say they are in peril of losing their now-legal businesses as the market adjusts.

Oregon regulators on Wednesday announced they will stop processing new applications for marijuana licenses in two weeks to address a severe backlog and ask state lawmakers to take up the issue next year.

Experts say the dizzying evolution of Oregon’s marijuana industry may well be a cautionary tale for California, where a similar regulatory structure could mean an oversupply on a much larger scale.

“For the way the program is set up, the state (California) just wants to get as many people in as possible, and they make no bones about it,” said Hilary Bricken, a Los Angeles-based attorney specializing in marijuana business law. “Most of these companies will fail as a result of oversaturation.”

Oregon has nearly 1 million pounds (453,600 kilograms) of marijuana flower — commonly called bud — in its inventory, a staggering amount for a state with about 4 million people. Producers told The Associated Press wholesale prices fell more than 50 percent in the past year; a study by the state’s Office of Economic Analysis found the retail cost of a gram of marijuana fell from $14 in 2015 to $7 in 2017.

The oversupply can be traced largely to state lawmakers’ and regulators’ earliest decisions to shape the industry.

They were acutely aware of Oregon’s entrenched history of providing top-drawer pot to the black market nationwide, as well as a concentration of small farmers who had years of cultivation experience in the legal, but largely unregulated, medical pot program.

Getting those growers into the system was critical if a legitimate industry was to flourish, said Sen. Ginny Burdick, a Portland Democrat who co-chaired a committee created to implement the voter-approved legalization measure.

Lawmakers decided not to cap licenses; to allow businesses to apply for multiple licenses; and to implement relatively inexpensive licensing fees.

Oregon’s Liquor Control Commission announced Wednesday it will put aside applications for new licenses received after June 15 until a backlog of pending applications is cleared. The decision comes after U.S. Attorney Billy Williams challenged state officials to address the oversupply.

“In my view, and frankly in the view of those in the industry that I’ve heard from, it’s a failing of the state for not stepping back and taking a look at where this industry is at following legalization,” Williams told the AP in a phone interview.

But those in the industry supported the initial decisions that led to the oversupply, Burdick said.

“We really tried to focus on policies that would rein in the medical industry and snuff out the black market as much as possible,” Burdick said.

Lawmakers also quickly backtracked on a rule requiring marijuana businesses have a majority ownership by someone with Oregon residency after entrepreneurs complained it was hard to secure startup money. That change opened the door to deep-pocketed, out-of-state companies that could begin consolidating the industry.

The state has granted 1,001 producer licenses and had another 950 in process as of last week. State officials worry if they cut off licensing or turn away those already in the application process, they’ll get sued or encourage illegal trade.

Some of the same parameters are taking shape in California, equally known for black-market pot from its Emerald Triangle.

Rules now in effect there cap only certain, medium-sized growing licenses. In some cases, companies acquired dozens of growing licenses, which can be operated on the same or adjoining parcels. The California Growers Association, an advocacy group, is suing to block those rules, fearing they will open the way for vast farms that will drive out smaller cultivators.

Beau Whitney, senior economist at national cannabis analytics firm New Frontier Data, said he’s seeing California prices fall.

In contrast, Washington knew oversupply could draw federal attention and was more conservative about licensing. As the market matured, its regulators eased growing limits, but the state never experienced an oversupply crisis.

Colorado has no license caps, but strict rules designed to limit oversupply allow it to curtail a growers’ farm size based on past crop yields, existing inventory, sales deals and other factors.

In Oregon, cannabis retail chains are emerging to take advantage of the shake-up.

A company called Nectar has 13 stores around the state — with three more on tap — and says on its website it is buying up for-sale dispensaries too. Canada-based Golden Leaf Holdings bought the successful Oregon startup Chalice and has six stores around Portland, with another slated to open.

William Simpson, Chalice’s founder and Golden Leaf Holdings CEO, is expanding into Northern California, Nevada and Canada. Simpson welcomes criticism that his business is to cannabis what Starbucks is to mass-market coffee.

“If you take Chalice like Starbucks, it’s a known quantity, it’s a brand that people know and trust,” he said.

Amy Margolis, the Oregon Cannabis Association’s executive director, says capping licenses would only spur more consolidation in the long term. The state is working on a study that should provide data and insight into what lies ahead.

“I don’t think that everything in this state is motivated by struggle and failure,” she said. “I’m very interested to see ... how this market settles itself and (in) being able to do that from a little less of a reactionary place.”

For now, Oregon’s smaller marijuana businesses are trying to stay afloat.

A newly formed group will launch an ad campaign this fall to tell Oregonians why they should pay more for mom-and-pop cannabis. Oregon Craft Cannabis Alliance founder Adam Smith believes 70 percent of Oregon’s small growers and retailers will go out of business if consumers don’t respond.

“We could turn around in three to four years and realize that 10 to 12 major companies own a majority of the Oregon industry and that none of it is really based here anymore,” he said. “The Oregon brand is really all about authenticity. It’s about people with their hands in the dirt, making something they love as well as they can. How do we save that?”

https://apnews.com/4ef6f816a8784e109f1a639bdf5c9855
 

Douglas.Curtis

Autistic Diplomat in Training
A minor financial bump in the road, compared to the drop in prices when million acre farms open up production. The cannabis industry is drastically changing and the unprepared have hard times coming.
 

soil margin

Active member
Veteran
States complain they have a glut of product but then they put ridiculous artificial limits on how much weed people are supposed to have and how much they can buy at dispensaries, it's ridiculous. If you want to sell more weed, don't tell people they can only buy an ounce and aren't supposed to smoke it anywhere except hidden in their bedroom with the window blinds shut.
 

Easy7

Active member
Veteran
What are typical wholesale prices in Oregon? Even $100 an ounce would float my boat. But yes, I totally agree that limiting purchase power is a retarded mistake. Weed isn't any more controllable limiting purchase size.

It's already been smuggled since illegal and that didn't do any harm compared to what the illegal climate did.
 

xet

Active member
The good news is the over supply is not punished by a SWAT.

The bad news is bud is not regulated like every other herb and a system built by the system is pissing off the public with endless good intentions.
 

Douglas.Curtis

Autistic Diplomat in Training
Compost it. Those buds are loaded with nutes.
Yep, you can almost bet most of it is sub-par anyway. Definitely loaded with pesticides (happily 'approved' by the state), a LOT of neem products, questionable handling and more. Unless they're taught at the start, it's usually a couple year road to 'decent' quality for any new grower.
 

40AmpstoFreedom

Well-known member
ICMag Donor
Veteran
States complain they have a glut of product but then they put ridiculous artificial limits on how much weed people are supposed to have and how much they can buy at dispensaries, it's ridiculous. If you want to sell more weed, don't tell people they can only buy an ounce and aren't supposed to smoke it anywhere except hidden in their bedroom with the window blinds shut.

Yeah complete garbage. What this article should say is that major MJ producers wish to have the government enact protectionist legislation to prevent competition.

The market would figure it self out over time. Supply and demand basics. If there is over production of something people will quit producing and things will equalize like they do in all markets that aren't over regulated.

Shame.
 

green404

Member
It is a little extreme but not uncommon in our market and the history of markets.

I have seen over supply happen with lots of stuff, niche organic products, toys, make up, etc. Markets get profitable and people pile in then... it is saturated. Much of the stuff you see in the dollar stores, amazon, flea markets, etc is over supply being sold for cheap. Being sold for cheap drives the price down and it is a race to the bottom.

Couple of headlines of gold and thousands of people will be there with shovels. A few will get enough gold to pay for the shovel. The real money was in selling the shovels and collecting fees to dig.
 

mr.brunch

Well-known member
Veteran
Maybe the problem wouldn’t be so bad if it were federally legal and transportable across state lines.... or maybe even- dare I say it- exportable!

Send that bud uk-side, it’ll fly out the door :tiphat:
 
M

moose eater

Well.. If they get to a point of giving it away or burying it, and there's any decent hash to be discarded, I have a good catcher's mit I haven't used in a while. I could probably find a new use for it.

My older son said someone sent him a screenshot from a canna store in Colorado, where they were offering a grab-bag deal from select buds in a case, where 2 oz. was either $200, $225, or $250; can't remember right now.

Me? I currently want no part of Goliath's business model or market. I rarely invite giant pains in the ass into my living room or life. Spent too much time ridding myself of such critters to want to willingly involve myself with them.

But as legalizer activists, we not only predicted, but campaigned, on all the 'great things' that would occur with legalized herb; lower prices (check), death to the black market (well, not quite, but definitely sporting some dents or changes), and revenues (double check).

It's in that light that I find it a bit astounding that any of us are surprised by what we're seeing. -WE'RE- the ones who foretold this stuff, and now we're a bit shocked? Did we not really believe our own hype, or were we that naïve in understanding markets? It is one or the other, from where I sit.

Just sayin'....
 
M

moose eater

I can hear the Ozark Mountain Daredevils singing, "I want to be a commercial success, so I can be just like the rest..."
 

Gry

Well-known member
Veteran
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] Naïve in understanding markets seems appropriate.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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MJPassion

Observer
ICMag Donor
Veteran
Oregonians...
Keep proving to the world the reality of less regulated markets.
Prices are crashing & I won’t have to grow for a couple years if I don’t want to (due to my own glut).
 
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