Fear of global slowdown as oil price soars

[dreamdancer]

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

 

[Chamba]

isn't the air in cities going to smell sweet and fresh when oil runs out!

and yes I do believe we in for turmoil between now and then

 

[DogBoy]

My god you guys panic easily. It's not going to be a problem for us as according to the government we'll all drown in the 200 mile sea level rise due to global warming well before the oil runs out.

I'm simply investing all my money in life rafts. Damn i'm gonna be rich when the economy collapses! lol

 

[Guest]

http://www.outgrowbigbro.org/

 

[okwildfire]

lol...we havent even scratched the surface of the oil..damn..wish there was someone one here that knows about the patch...kinda lonely..i mean someone that really knows about it..not people that do nothing but google..then act like they know what there talking about...AM I THE ONLY ONE THAT WORKS IN THE ENERGY FIELD??

 

[Guest]

yes there is easy processed oil and hard to process oil...oil company's put the hard stuff away for a rainy day when the prices make it more viable to go through the steps of extracting it...in short we got lots of oil but we only a few polar caps you do the math with your degree genius

 

[okwildfire]

lol sure there smart guy lol..easy to process?? its all easy..just varys by grade..high grade..for gas...middies..for oh lets see here..the p.c your bangin away on?? to the lipstick we all love to see on hotties..well most of us anyway..hehe..pisssttt btw oil doesnt have nothing to do with polar caps lol....theres a club of wingnuts that thinks the half deg rise in temps in the last 100 years was caused by moose anywho....

 

[Guest]

yes my friend it does when you extract that which keeps the ground temperature from rising because the center of the globe is about 4,400 degrees celsius to about 6,100 degrees celsius...what do you think oil does for your car besides lubricate the hard parts it keeps your engine cool...with out any knowledge accept that you should know without a doubt there is another purpose for oil on this planet than for man to burn it at a accelerating rate...the planet was perfect before supposed civilized man with all its intelligence(ignorance)lol you see my friend civilized man cant even respect that which gives him life...how smart are we?

 

[nycdfan042]

id love to sell my car....get a job really close to my house i can bike to. Its not much but its a start. we live in a 24 hr world sadly what brainthor said is right im one of those, were passed the brink type of people...but i guess hoping for something is cool too....

 

[Jack D Ripper]

Global slowdown? wtf is that? Could you make up any more of a bs term?

Try this one on for size, Global slowdown will occur sometime shortly after the US stops importing lead tainted goods from china by the millions. And I dont see that happening anytime soon.

its called a recession (a national recession will lead to an international slowdown becasue of the impact the US has on the global economy), and they usually start at the end of october. read a book asshole

 

[Verite]

its called a recession (a national recession will lead to an international slowdown becasue of the impact the US has on the global economy), and they usually start at the end of october. read a book asshole

Read a chart douchebag. Heres the Dow over the last two years. Care to point out the recession? Kinda hard to have a recession when the Dow increases some 4,000 points over the last two years regardless what the forecasters said or say now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=2y

 

[DogBoy]

Holy shit!

Verite's Ostrich is angry and spouting financial updates.

Verite, can i put 200 on Ostrich tranquilisers and invest my futures portfolio on liferafts, it's all getting a bit Kevin Costners Waterworld over in Europe.

 

[Discombobul8]

lol sure there smart guy lol..easy to process?? its all easy..just varys by grade..high grade..for gas...middies..for oh lets see here..the p.c your bangin away on?? to the lipstick we all love to see on hotties..well most of us anyway..hehe..pisssttt btw oil doesnt have nothing to do with polar caps lol....theres a club of wingnuts that thinks the half deg rise in temps in the last 100 years was caused by moose anywho....

Fractional Distillation.

 

[Discombobul8]

Opec under fire as US crude nears $100 a barrel. LOL

Nigeria: Crude Oil Price Hits $88 Per Barrel

http://allafrica.com/stories/200710170303.html

And here is what the ole Arabs report too.....

http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20071019-052405-3113r


And if you can't be bothered to klik the link...here it is. Quite interesting really.

Oil prices peak amid political tensions, weak dollar
Sana Abdallah & agency dispatches

October 19, 2007


-- Oil prices broke through the $90-per-barrel mark Friday for the first time amid rising political tensions in the Middle East and the decline of the dollar against major currencies.

US light crude for delivery in November reached $90.07 per barrel in the early afternoon, beating the previous high of $90.02 late Thursday. London's Brent North Sea crude for December delivery slightly dropped to $84.60 after hitting a record of $84.88 Thursday.

While the prices were the highest to be recorded in the market in US dollar terms, oil experts say the price is within the norm because of the decline of the US currency's value, which has been hitting record lows against other major currencies in the recent years.

The dollar continues to remain low, where the European single currency hit a new high of $1.4319 in Friday morning trade and the greenback maintained a three-week low against the Japanese yen.

The weakening dollar has made oil, priced in the US currency, a more attractive investment for buyers using stronger currencies, boosting crude demand.

But politically speaking, analysts have blamed the record high oil prices to rising tension on the borders of oil-producing Turkey and Iraq, following the Turkish threat to launch military operations against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq, endangering the flow of oil supplies.

The Turkish parliament Wednesday authorized the government to send troops to northern Iraq, the only region that enjoys relative peace in the war-torn Arab country, to crush Turkish rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

Analysts said another political development that seemed to have contributed to the hike in oil prices was this week's escalation of Iran's nuclear standoff with the West.

During a visit to Tehran earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin confronted the US-Western position by promising Iran strategic support in its nuclear energy program. And US President George W. Bush warned world leaders of "World War III" if they allowed Iran to follow through with its atomic program and create nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, global demand for oil is at an all-time high and the concern that supplies cannot keep up has greatly contributed to the price hike of crude.

Arab oil officials and analysts have brushed aside accusations leveled at the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for not increasing their production sufficiently to meet the growing demand.

OPEC, which accounts for 40 percent of the world's oil production, in September gave in to Western pressure to raise its production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of November 1, to "keep the market well-supplied." But Western analysts said the increase of output came too little too late because the rising demand was higher than OPEC's share of production.

OPEC, though, earlier this week blamed "market speculators" for the rising oil prices. It said that "persistent refinery bottlenecks and seasonal maintenance work, ongoing geopolitical problems in the Middle East, and fluctuations in the US dollar" have also continued to play a role in pushing oil prices up.

Arab oil officials and experts say the West is throwing the onus on OPEC - mostly made up of Arab countries - for controlling the oil prices, in order to shift attention away from the real parties to blame in the West.

The primary problem, they say, is that Western countries are the largest oil consumers in the world, where they trade with 1 billion bpd for a daily world consumption of about $85 million bpd.

In addition, they complain that many countries in Europe and the US have not built a single oil refinery for crude in the past 25 to 30 years to meet the gas and fuel needs of their people.

"And all the while, the Western media mobilizes Western public opinion against OPEC, especially the Arab Gulf countries, blaming the organization for the price hikes in oil," complained an Arab analyst who did not want to be identified.

The US Congress in May voted on a bill - dubbed "No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act of 2007," or "NOPEC" - that authorizes the US attorney general to sue OPEC countries in US courts.

But whether OPEC, market speculators, traders, or geopolitical events and tensions are to blame, analysts predict that oil prices will continue to rise and that the biggest losers in this regard are again the poor and developing countries.


http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20071019-052405-3113r

 

[Jack D Ripper]

Read a chart douchebag. Heres the Dow over the last two years. Care to point out the recession? Kinda hard to have a recession when the Dow increases some 4,000 points over the last two years regardless what the forecasters said or say now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=2y

I never said we are in a recession, just on the verge of one. Ill be sure to point it out to you once the shit hits the fan. BTW, you have to look at a bigger picture than 2 years to see recessions

 

[Discombobul8]

Crude Oil Forecast

Will "Private" Oil Sink the NYMEX?

Oil-Rich And Oil-Hungry Governments Are Ditching Conventional Markets And Locking Up Reserves… Here's How They Could Permanently Destabilize the Price of Crude


The world's largest governments are drastically changing the way they buy and sell oil. And it could affect every family, small business and multibillion-dollar corporation across the globe…

So far, this historic shift has been scarcely reported. But the transformation is undoubtedly underway, and quietly altering the future of energy.

Rapid economic expansion in Russia, India and, most importantly, China, has led the governments in these countries to review their traditional sources of oil, and to make substantial changes in the way they get it.

And they've opted to circumvent the traditional distribution networks of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and other bourses, entirely.

In fact, they're undermining them, "locking up" supplies by purchasing crude from oil-producing countries directly - behind closed doors:

Angola committed to supply China with 200,000 barrels per day of crude at $60/barrel for the next 10 years, in return for Chinese investment in infrastructure projects such as railroads, roads and bridges.
India already imports about 24 million tons of crude from Saudi Arabia every year, which is 26% of its total crude imports. It has stated a desire to secure long-term contracts to assure delivery in the future. Indian public sector firms have participating interests in oil and gas projects in Vietnam, Sudan, Russia, Iraq, Iran, Myanmar, Libya, Syria, Australia, Ivory Coast, Qatar and Egypt.
Russia, India and China are involved in efforts to build and control petroleum pipelines throughout the central-Asian and Middle Eastern regions. The Shanghai Cooperation Council, for instance, was formed to ensure that oil from the giant Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline flows to the East, not West.
This strategy is coming to be known as "Energy Mercantilism." Producers - and consumers - are bypassing the marketplace altogether. And it's taking massive quantities of oil off the open market.

Now, the crude oil market's forecast is wide open. The free markets that have historically determined the pricing and allocation of oil are in sudden danger of extinction. And with them, competitive prices for U.S. consumers…

State-Run Oil Will Dominate the World Energy Market

In the past, the world has relied on an open marketplace to set the price of energy. For decades, the NYMEX has been the epicenter of energy trade.

But China and India, in cooperation with a key supplier, Russia, have turned the tables by making bi-lateral agreements to lock in long-term supplies at set prices, or by forming consortiums to guarantee supply.

China has become the world's second-largest importer of oil. And the U.S. Energy Department estimates that the country's demand will more than double, to 14.2 million barrels a day, by 2025. More than two-thirds of that will be imported.

Currently, China builds cities the size of New York twice a year.

Every time a new barrel of oil is discovered, the world uses four existing barrels. But China and India's demand for oil is still in its infancy - around 1.3 barrels per person per year, compared to 4.4 barrels per person per year in the developed world.

When their economies begin using 2.4 barrels per annum per person, they'll need 24 billion barrels of oil a year - double the current amount consumed worldwide.

What's important to emphasize is that in this new Energy Mercantilism, oil prices are locked-in, no matter how the market fluctuates in the future. That means not everyone will pay the same price for oil, fundamentally altering the dynamics of the energy marketplace. It directly counters market pricing, and destabilizes the supply/distribution channels that currently determine who can afford oil.

And These "Private" Oil Deals Are Beginning To Roll in…

? In Russia, Vladimir Putin has been squeezing Europe by withholding supplies of natural gas while negotiating for exclusive pipeline deals. In 2003, he dismantled the Yukos oil group who had expanded dealings with the West. He has explicitly stated that Russia will demand bilateral long-term supply contracts with consuming nations, so Russia could guarantee stable demand for its exports.

? China National Petroleum Corp. has entered joint development agreements with Sudan, which is forecasted to produce as much as 300,000 barrels per day by the end of 2006. Another Chinese firm, Sinopec Corp., is erecting a pipeline from that complex to Port Sudan on the Red Sea, where the Chinese are building a tanker terminal for shipping raw crude to the Chinese mainland. Altogether, Sudan, despite conducting what is widely regarded as genocidal warfare not far from the oilfields, provides 10% of Chinese petroleum imports.

? In November 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao toured Latin America and completed a number of economic deals, including an oil deal with Argentina. Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela, has said Chinese firms would be allowed to operate 15 mature oil fields in eastern Venezuela, which could produce more than one billion barrels. Chavez has also invited Chinese firms to bid for natural gas exploration contracts.

? Sinopec, China's state-owned oil giant, signed a $70 billion deal with the Iranians in November 2004 to develop the Yadavaran oil field. Sinopec will also buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas over 30 years. Iran is committed to export 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China for 25 years.

? Recent testimony before the Congressional Committee on National Security, Emerging Threats and International Relations, outlined how China's three state-owned oil companies "have managed to establish control over about 3 mb/d [million barrels a day] of crude production, which could reach up to 6 mb/d by 2008."

The fact is, 90% of world reserves are controlled by national oil companies, as opposed to market-driven public companies.

Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), for example, is the largest publicly traded oil company. And it ranks only 14th in proven reserves, directly below 13 national oil companies, including those of Iran, Venezuela, and other governments overtly unfriendly to the U.S.

Forecasting Crude Oil… The Bottom Line

A task force for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a highly respected Washington think tank, recently released a report that contains dire predictions for our economy and global oil markets.

Led by ex-CIA chiefs John Schlesinger and John Deutsch, the group reports that the United States will be unable to achieve energy independence any time in the foreseeable future, even with massive injections of ethanol, wind power and other alternative fuels.

Noting the potential ramifications of Energy Mercantilism, it recommends radical conservation initiatives, possibly including higher gasoline taxes and gasoline rationing.

It also calls for the implementation of "an active public policy… to correct these market failures that harm U.S. economic and national security."

"Most oil and gas resources," the report states, "are controlled by state-run companies, some of which enter into supply contracts with consumer countries that are accompanied by political arrangements that distort the proper functioning of the market."

Conclusion on Crude Oil and the NYMEX

The fact is, more and more oil buyers and sellers are hooking up directly, outside of the marketplace. And in many cases, they're including other "payments" into the transactions - direct investment, infrastructure development, political favors, trade agreements, etc.

And therein lies the uncertainty. How does one know if he's paying the going rate for oil when a going rate doesn't exist?

 

[FrankRizzo]

That's it...we're screwed. I'm gonna get a life raft fill it with ganja plants and sail into the sunset. Maybe I'll run into you Dogbog floating around.

FRizzo

 

[FarmerJoe]

The Dow increases, while the quality of average american living decreases. They're not directly related, but they are a product of eachother, and our own selfish desires.

 

[DogBoy]

Yo Frank, plenty of room on board for you. Tickets cost i pack of doritos and a pack of dry rizla!!

Verite, i've told you a dozen times, i wont pet your ostrich now knock it off!

 

[Gypsy Nirvana]

I wonder when the price of gas/petrol and deisel will get to what we have to pay for it in Europe in the U.S.A......?

Seems like us Europeans have ALWAYS had to pay much, much more for it.......its way over $2 a LITRE right now and due to go up even more........ thats about $8 a gallon?......If tommorrow Americans had to pay $8 a gallon for gas.....I wonder what the reaction would be?