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Thought #1
Few people grow out ample amounts of one generation of a specific breed to find "rare" phenos. Most of these clone onlys are probably more like 1/100 or 1/1000. I know people that breed and grow thousands of plants at a time but never grow more than 20 or 30 siblings of a specific strain generation. If it comes down to numbers than 90% of us aren't even in the 10+ range of plants from one gen.
Thought #2
Some plants react differently to cloning, The God bud clone is AAA hands down best indica I have seen/smoked, it as an S1 in the same condition shows an array of phenos all similar to the mother but about 50-60% near the same quality as the mother.
Peton....'clone only' means that the famously awesome bud you smoked or saw came from a SINGLE PLANT that someone found to be awesome and CLONED it and passed it around to others.....these "clone only" plants are not simply one of many different seedlings from a 'strain' you bought on the internet, NO, this is the 1 out of a thousand BEST plant, and is only available as THIS CUTTING)... a "Clone Only" plant is propagated by cuttings from ONE SINGLE PLANT that has EVERYTHING! There are CLONE SALES going on right now on Craigslist where the people selling clones do not understand this, or simply do not care about the diff between elite and typical.....its sick.
No, plenty of clone on lies are simply the best examples of the species, like a Labrador that wins Crufts dog show as a best of breed and also best of show, it is just a superb example of its kind.
Taking SSH as an example, the hypro Amnesia clone was from a 1\500 or 1\1000 selection, it has (pretty much) the shortest possible flowering time of SSH, it is as potent as it gets, is as high yielding as it possibly can get and has the best smell/ taste SSH can get. To get all these features in one plant is the work of a large selection. Amnesia S1 seeds do not produce perfect representations of the clone, but so what, if a plant (SSH selection) could do this (very unlikely as it is a poly) then it would likely be inferior to the Amnesia cloine in other respects and therefore to me, less attractive.
There is nothing special or specific about Cannabis, most of what has already been learned by mankind about all the plants we cultivate is relevant. Check out Wikipedia http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_plant_breeding
Gg #4 was selected from 4 plants, correct me if I am mistaken. Pretty sure it was a poly hybrid, yet a clone only keeper was found. Maybe we don't need to pop as many as we think to find that special girl. Subcool is selecting the best from a 10 pack on Danny Boy right now.
Hell, if Chemdog can pop 11 bag seeds and find 3 keepers(91,4,d), I can find one from my homemade crosses.
I recall somewhere on one of Neville's posts or maybe somebody posted supposedly quoting Neville that said generally the best in 20 plants is comparable to the best in a thousand. I don't really have an opinion on that. Haven't grown enough plants to make my own decision. But I'm doubtful this is true.
Also, for all us small time growers, don't get too discouraged. Just because a true keeper is 1 in 1000 doesn't necessarily mean you have to grow 100 plants. Maybe that "one" happens to be in one of the two ten packs you bought! One never knows. I've grown enough plants though that I'm confident that I will recognize something special if it shows up.
I think open pollination with some selection criteria is the best method because it doesn't restrict you to 1:1 individual breedings but it's also not just Willis nilly pollen chucking. For example, I have 20 seeds of a rare strain that I want to make f2 stock from. I'm going to use several males of the strain but first there will be a general selection process. For example I'll be culling any males that flower under 24hours of light. So you see it's open pollination but also not just willy nilly. And I think eliminating the early males helps improve the strain by decreasing propensity towards hermying. For a small time breeder who can only work with small numbers, I think this is a better method. Also just remember to have fun.
Many seem to forget that open pollination is exactly the same thing as 1:1 matings as far as any 1 of the seeds is concerned. Every seed (unless selfed) is a 1:1 mating. 1 mother 1 father. The difference is open pollination achieves lots of separate 1:1 matings rather than just 1.
Open pollination however has the draw back of having no idea which mating any 1 of the seeds came from. It also won't move the population forward at all. If you are searching through the seeds for a keeper, a number of the seeds you are comparing will be from different parents. That's going to both increase the odds of a good match being in there and the number of plants you have to grow out to find it.
Its also worth pointing out that a keeper is a different statement than claiming a clone only strain, which requires higher standards.
As for rarity, keeper= 1 in 30, clone only 1 in 1000 if you have the experience to recognise it.
nevils saying 1 in 20 nev hase are special <= hooey
tom hill has said 5% of plants are special, he didnt really mean it, look at how he talks lately how popping seeds is a waste of time if you want the shortest path to a great specimen.
This 5% top percentile is a number thrown around alot. It should be looked at as a start, you might nail some other traits like flavor and structure but to get the whole shebang - flavor, structure and buzz - good fuggin luck.
SamS says 1 in 100 skunk#1 females are exceptional - now that might be closer to the reality and skunk is supposedly the most stable strain ever made. He also says proper selections come from 10000 specimens. pretty grim if you ask me.
You can get lucky though. JW got lucky with GG. I'm sure he put alot effort but the luck made the difference. Keep popping seeds as much as you can, it'll eventually pan out - hopefully before your hair turns grey. Somebody is going to get that winning lotto ticket.
Pretty good to good isnt that hard to find but a great pone is hard to find.
I would also open pollinate first if I only had 20 seeds along with individual breeding 1 to 1........breeding is more a matter of labelling and record keeping and now cheap lab testing...you don't need a fancy degree or be a genius...I got bogs sour bubble down to 42 days done...not take able totally done ripe....yeehaw..I have quite a seed collection..more than most and my own crosses....seeds are like a box of chocolates...run forest run..i could come up with clone onlys too with some of the poly /multi hybrid crosses I have made...cause the strain is so un stable it could take forever or maybe never be possible ....95 percent of breeders are overrated...
if you want a clone only simply pop some seeds. find the one you like the best and clone it. the end.
i laugh really loud to myself when i see people throwing numbers around like 1:x/xx/xxx/xxxx
if you know what you're looking for then when you find it you will find it. it might be in 4 seeds, 9 seeds, 20 seeds, 100, 1000, more. but when you find it you will have it.
most of these "elite" clone onlys are just some random bagseed someone popped. a 1/1 selection and then it was marketed to the masses. the end. no one popped 1000 seeds to find kush, chem, diesel, glues, etc. just some random bagseed they decided to pass on in clone form.
Chatting about this yesterday in a club, a (mad IMO) friend is just starting 40 fem seeds for a quick veg and flower...
What we were thinking about is getting him to mark the best plants once a week, later on compare and see if the yield winners (it is a commercial strain) are the plants that appear to be the most vigorous or funky early on.
If this is true, it makes Allard style mass germinations and mass culls look like a good path to follow. If not, bugger, hope Neville was right
Stop trying to find keepers from seeds that come from hermie prone bag seed would probably be best
Find the breeders making the crosses from stable landrace strains. Fuck the poly-hybrid, massive marketing budget, pollen chucking, gene pool weakening, all that's different is the smell and taste rubbish and find something interesting.
Stop trying to find the current flavour of the month and enjoy what you have, make that as good as possible.
Remember what the Buddhists say - Desire causes pain
there is so much work already done. if you do this for income, and you like popping seeds and pheno hunting (i do) just remember, you arent doing it to make better money. you are doing it because youre looking for something new because its fun to explore even when you dont find anything. we all get elated with the idea that the awesome sounding cross will yield a pheno with the best set of the parents various best traits. in most cases you dont find something better than both parents. if i want to be relavant and successful in the market i use something someone has already chose that is rare and exceptional. if im bored and want to force myself to become more intimate with my grow and make it less a chore i do experiments like the futile act (99.99% of the time anyway)of looking for another elite.usually you find plants worthy of being grown in someones garden but generally not better than what i could have just cloned out of my mom room. popping beans is fun. its like scratch off tickets. the cost of applying yourself in the pursuit demands more resources than it will return compared to hooking up with the broader community and skimming the cream of clone only rare exceptions. ou could spend the rest of your career growing a new strain every round that no one in your area is growing without popping a single bean. but that would be boring . i sometimes waste money on frivolous things. seed popping is one of them usually.